Saturday, December 12, 2009

Week 15 Rankings

Not much changes with the results of the Army-Navy game, but here are the final standings going into the bowls:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) - 1.6
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) - 2.1
3. Texas Longhorns (13-0) - 2.4
4. Boise State Broncos (13-0) - 4.0
5. Florida Gators (12-1) - 4.9
6. Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) - 6.2
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 7.8
8. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) - 8.0
9. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 9.0
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 9.1
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 12.5
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) - 12.5
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) - 13.4
14. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) - 13.5
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 14.4
16. Stanford Cardinal (8-4) - 18.8
17. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) - 19.4
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 19.5
19. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) - 19.6
20. Arizona Wildcats (8-4) - 19.7
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) - 20.7
22. Oregon State Beavers (8-4) - 21.5
23. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 21.8
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 23.4
25. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 25.3
26. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 27.5
27. Utah Utes (9-3) - 27.8
28. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) - 28.2
29. USC Trojans (8-4) - 28.4
30. Clemson Tigers (8-5) - 29.0
31. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) - 29.7
32. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2) - 30.5
33. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) - 33.3
34. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 34.0
35. Troy Trojans (9-3) - 35.4
36. Connecticut Huskies (7-5) - 36.8
37. Missouri Tigers (8-4) - 37.5
38. Houston Cougars (10-3) - 39.0
39. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 39.3
40. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) - 39.7
41. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 40.2
42. Boston College Eagles (8-4) - 42.1
43. California Golden Bears (8-4) - 43.5
44. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 45.6
45. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6) - 45.8
46. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 46.5
47. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 47.6
48. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 47.9
49. Florida State Seminoles (6-6) - 48.8
50. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) - 50.3
51. South Florida Bulls (7-5) - 50.7
52. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) - 50.9
53. Washington Huskies (5-7) - 51.2
54. ECU Pirates (9-4) - 53.5
55. UCLA Bruins (6-6) - 53.9
56. Michigan State Spartans (6-6) - 56.1
57. UCF Knights (8-4) - 58.2
58. Purdue Boilermakers (5-7) - 58.6
59. Northwestern Wildcats (8-4) - 59.0
60. Navy Midshipmen (9-4) - 59.6
61. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 62.1
62. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 62.5
63. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (9-3) - 62.8
64. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-7) - 63.8
65. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-8) - 64.0
66. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) - 64.7
67. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5) - 65.9
68. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 67.2
69. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 67.8
70. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 69.7
71. Kansas State Wildcats (6-6) - 70.0
72. Michigan Wolverines (5-7) - 72.2
73. Baylor Bears (4-8) - 72.9
74. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 75.7
75. NC State Wolfpack (5-7) - 76.1
76. Temple Owls (9-3) - 76.2
77. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-8) - 78.7
(tie) Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 78.7
79. Colorado Buffaloes (3-9) - 80.0
(tie) UAB Blazers (5-7) - 80.0
81. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 81.6
82. Buffalo Bulls (5-7) - 81.7
83. Idaho Vandals (7-5) - 82.3
84. Louisville Cardinals (4-8) - 82.5
85. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 82.8
86. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 86.1
87. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 88.6
88. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 89.2
89. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 89.7
90. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 90.9
91. Duke Blue Devils (5-7) - 91.9
92. Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) - 93.3
93. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 93.9
94. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-6) - 94.5
(tie) Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 94.5
96. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 94.7
97. Virginia Cavaliers (3-9) - 94.9
98. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 99.0
99. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 99.7
100. San Diego State Aztecs (4-8) - 99.8
101. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 100.0
102. Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 100.4
103. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 100.5
104. Toledo Rockets (5-7) - 102.8
105. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 104.0
106. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 105.8
107. FIU Golden Panthers (3-9) - 107.1
108. Akron Zips (3-9) - 107.9
109. Army Black Knights (5-7) - 108.5
110. North Texas Mean Green (2-10) - 109.0
111. Tulane Green Wave (3-9) - 111.5
112. Ball State Cardinals (2-10) - 112.5
113. Miami University RedHawks (1-11) - 113.0
114. San Jose State Spartans (2-10) - 113.9
115. Rice Owls (2-10) - 114.5
116. Washington State Cougars (1-11) - 116.3
117. New Mexico State Aggies (3-10) - 116.4
118. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 117.2
119. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-12) - 118.9
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0-12) - 120.6

Monday, December 7, 2009

Ranking the Bowls - From Least Intriguing to Most

Bowl season is a fun time, but with so many things going on this holiday season and so many games to choose from, which games most warrant your attention? Here's what our analysis says, starting with the least intriguing matchup to the most intriguing... (All times are EST)

34. Fresno State vs. Wyoming - New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 19th 4:30 PM
33. SMU vs. Nevada - Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24th 8:00 PM
32. Bowling Green vs. Idaho - Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 30th 4:30 PM
31. Temple vs. UCLA - Eaglebank Bowl, Dec. 29th 4:30 PM
30. Marshall vs. Ohio - Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26th 1:00 PM
29. South Florida vs. Northern Illinois - International Bowl, Jan. 2nd Noon
28. Northwestern vs. #25 Auburn - Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st 11:00 AM
27. ECU vs. #11 Arkansas - Liberty Bowl, Jan. 2nd 5:30 PM
26. Navy vs. Missouri - Texas Bowl, Dec. 31st 3:30 PM
25. Michigan State vs. #18 Texas Tech - Alamo Bowl, Jan. 2nd 9:00 PM
24. Minnesota vs. Iowa State - Insight Bowl, Dec. 31st 6:00 PM
23. Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State - New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 20th 8:30 PM
22. Rutgers vs. UCF - St. Petersburg Bowl, Dec. 19th 8:00 PM
21. Florida State vs. West Virginia - Gator Bowl, Jan. 1st 1:00 PM
20. Clemson vs. Kentucky - Music City Bowl, Dec. 27th 8:30 PM
19. Texas A&M vs. Georgia - Independence Bowl, Dec. 28th 5:00 PM
18. Utah vs. California - Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23rd 8:00 PM
17. North Carolina vs. #19 Pittsburgh - Meineke Car Care Bowl, Dec. 26th 4:30 PM
16. Boston College vs. USC - Emerald Bowl, Dec. 26th 8:00 PM
15. Houston vs. Air Force - Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 31st Noon
14. #8 Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee - Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31st 7:30 PM
13. Connecticut vs. South Carolina - Papajohns.com Bowl, Jan. 2nd 2:00 PM
12. #14 Miami (FL) vs. Wisconsin - Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 29th 8:00 PM
11. Troy vs. Central Michigan - GMAC Bowl, Jan. 6th 7:00 PM
10. #24 Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss - Cotton Bowl, Jan. 2nd 2:00 PM
9. #23 BYU vs. #22 Oregon State - Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22nd 8:00 PM
8. #21 Nebraska vs. #20 Arizona - Holiday Bowl, Dec. 30th 8:00 PM
7. #7 Penn State vs. #15 LSU - Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1st 1:00 PM
6. #17 Iowa vs. #13 Georgia Tech - Orange Bowl, Jan. 5th 8:00 PM
5. #11 Oklahoma vs. #16 Stanford - Sun Bowl, Dec. 31st 2:00 PM
4. #10 Ohio State vs. #9 Oregon - Rose Bowl, Jan. 1st 4:30 PM
3. #5 Florida vs. #6 Cincinnati - Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st 8:30 PM
2. #4 Boise State vs. #2 TCU - Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4th 8:00 PM
1. #1 Alabama vs. #3 Texas - BCS Championship Game, Jan. 7th 8:00 PM

Note: A game's level of being "intriguing" is a combination of how highly ranked the participants are using our ranking system and how evenly matched the teams are (or rather, how close they are in rank to each other). In theory, then, an "intriguing" game is one that is likely to be a close game between two good teams.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Week 14 Rankings

Alabama's victory was convincing. Texas's was not - not convincing enough to hold on to the top spot or even to stay above idle TCU in our latest analysis. (The results of other games this week also affect how these teams are ranked, of course.) As a result, when all is said and done, our analysis suggests that the championship game SHOULD be Alabama vs. TCU. Will that actually be the case? Stay tuned for an analysis of all of the bowl games, including which are the most compelling matchups according to our computer analysis, coming soon...

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) - 1.6
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) - 2.1
3. Texas Longhorns (13-0) - 2.4
4. Boise State Broncos (13-0) - 4.0
5. Florida Gators (12-1) - 4.9
6. Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) - 6.2
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 7.8
8. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) - 8.0
9. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 9.0
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 9.1
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 12.5
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) - 12.5
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) - 13.4
14. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) - 13.5
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 14.4
16. Stanford Cardinal (8-4) - 18.8
17. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) - 19.5
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 19.5
19. Arizona Wildcats (8-4) - 19.7
(tie) Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) - 19.7
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) - 20.6
22. Oregon State Beavers (8-4) - 21.5
23. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 21.7
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 23.4
25. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 25.3
26. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 27.5
27. Utah Utes (9-3) - 27.8
28. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) - 28.2
29. USC Trojans (8-4) - 28.3
30. Clemson Tigers (8-5) - 28.9
31. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) - 29.7
32. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2) - 30.5
33. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) - 33.3
34. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 34.0
35. Troy Trojans (9-3) - 35.4
36. Connecticut Huskies (7-5) - 36.9
37. Missouri Tigers (8-4) - 37.5
38. Houston Cougars (10-3) - 39.0
39. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 39.3
40. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) - 39.7
41. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 40.2
42. Boston College Eagles (8-4) - 42.2
43. California Golden Bears (8-4) - 43.6
44. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 45.7
45. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6) - 45.9
46. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 46.4
47. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 47.5
48. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 47.9
49. Florida State Seminoles (6-6) - 48.5
50. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) - 50.5
51. South Florida Bulls (7-5) - 50.7
52. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) - 50.9
53. Washington Huskies (5-7) - 51.2
54. ECU Pirates (9-4) - 53.5
55. UCLA Bruins (6-6) - 53.8
56. Michigan State Spartans (6-6) - 56.1
57. UCF Knights (8-4) - 58.0
58. Purdue Boilermakers (5-7) - 58.6
59. Northwestern Wildcats (8-4) - 59.0
60. Navy Midshipmen (8-4) - 60.4
61. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 61.8
62. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 62.3
63. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (9-3) - 62.8
64. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-7) - 63.8
65. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-8) - 64.1
66. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) - 64.7
67. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5) - 65.9
68. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 67.2
69. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 67.7
70. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 69.7
71. Kansas State Wildcats (6-6) - 70.0
72. Michigan Wolverines (5-7) - 72.2
73. Baylor Bears (4-8) - 72.9
74. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 75.7
75. NC State Wolfpack (5-7) - 76.0
76. Temple Owls (9-3) - 76.2
77. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 78.7
78. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-8) - 78.9
79. Colorado Buffaloes (3-9) - 80.0
(tie) UAB Blazers (5-7) - 80.0
81. Buffalo Bulls (5-7) - 81.6
(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 81.6
83. Idaho Vandals (7-5) - 82.3
84. Louisville Cardinals (4-8) - 82.4
85. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 82.9
86. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 86.1
87. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 88.6
88. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 89.2
89. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 89.7
90. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 91.0
91. Duke Blue Devils (5-7) - 91.7
92. Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) - 93.4
93. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 94.0
94. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-6) - 94.4
95. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 94.6
96. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 94.7
97. Virginia Cavaliers (3-9) - 94.8
98. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 99.0
99. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 99.7
100. San Diego State Aztecs (4-8) - 99.8
101. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 100.0
102. Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 100.5
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 100.5
104. Toledo Rockets (5-7) - 102.8
105. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 104.0
106. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 105.8
107. FIU Golden Panthers (3-9) - 107.2
108. Army Black Knights (5-6) - 108.0
109. Akron Zips (3-9) - 108.1
110. North Texas Mean Green (2-10) - 109.1
111. Tulane Green Wave (3-9) - 111.5
112. Ball State Cardinals (2-10) - 112.5
113. Miami University RedHawks (1-11) - 113.0
114. San Jose State Spartans (2-10) - 113.9
115. Rice Owls (2-10) - 114.4
116. New Mexico State Aggies (3-10) - 116.4
(tie) Washington State Cougars (1-11) - 116.4
118. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 117.2
119. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-12) - 118.9
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0-12) - 120.6