In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. Here are the final rankings from 1976:
1. Pittsburgh Panthers (12-0) - 1.0
2. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 2.6
3. Maryland Terrapins (11-1) - 3.9
4. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) - 4.0
5. USC Trojans (11-1) - 4.1
6. Houston Cougars (10-2) - 6.6
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - 7.6
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-2) - 7.7
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 9.6
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2-1) - 11.7
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (9-2-1) - 11.7
12. UCLA Bruins (9-2-1) - 11.8
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 11.9
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-0) - 13.2
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3-1) - 14.8
16. Colorado Buffaloes (8-4) - 15.0
17. ECU Pirates (9-2) - 17.4
18. Iowa State Cyclones (8-3) - 18.5
(tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 18.5
20. Missouri Tigers (6-5) - 20.7
21. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 21.1
22. Kentucky Wildcats (8-4) - 22.0
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-2) - 23.5
24. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (9-2) - 24.9
25. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3) - 25.1
26. Florida Gators (8-4) - 26.5
27. San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) - 27.3
28. William & Mary Tribe (7-4) - 27.6
29. LSU Tigers (6-4-1) - 29.7
30. Kansas Jayhawks (6-5) - 30.9
31. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 31.9
32. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 32.8
33. Brown Bears (8-1) - 32.9
34. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 34.1
35. Baylor Bears (7-3-1) - 34.5
36. McNeese State Cowboys (10-2) - 35.5
37. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-5) - 36.9
38. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-5) - 39.2
39. San Jose State Spartans (7-4) - 41.2
40. Furman Paladins (6-4-1) - 41.6
41. Tennessee Volunteers (6-5) - 41.9
42. Texas Longhorns (5-5-1) - 43.1
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3) - 43.2
44. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5-1) - 43.5
45. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-4-1) - 43.9
46. Kent State Golden Flashes (8-4) - 45.1
47. Memphis Tigers (7-4) - 47.6
48. Harvard Crimson (6-3) - 47.9
49. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 50.4
50. Richmond Spiders (5-6) - 51.0
51. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-4-1) - 51.1
52. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5) - 52.6
53. Stanford Cardinal (6-5) - 53.0
54. Ball State Cardinals (8-3) - 54.4
55. Boston College Eagles (8-3) - 55.1
56. Duke Blue Devils (5-5-1) - 56.4
(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (5-6) - 56.4
58. Western Michigan Broncos (7-4) - 57.5
59. North Texas Mean Green (6-5) - 59.0
60. Ohio Bobcats (7-4) - 59.3
61. Colgate Raiders (8-2) - 60.2
62. California Golden Bears (5-6) - 60.8
63. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 63.0
64. Long Beach State 49ers (8-3) - 63.4
65. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 63.9
66. Washington Huskies (5-6) - 65.6
67. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 66.1
68. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 67.5
69. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 69.4
70. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6-1) - 70.8
71. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (6-4-1) - 71.2
72. Bowling Green Falcons (6-5) - 72.0
73. Miami Hurricanes (3-8) - 72.3
74. Clemson Tigers (3-6-2) - 74.8
75. Citadel Bulldogs (6-5) - 75.3
76. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 76.8
77. Villanova Wildcats (6-4-1) - 77.6
78. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-6) - 77.8
79. Florida State Seminoles (5-6) - 78.0
80. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-6) - 78.1
81. Auburn Tigers (3-8) - 78.4
82. VMI Keydets (5-5) - 80.5
83. New Mexico Lobos (4-7) - 82.7
84. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-6) - 85.8
85. Michigan State Spartans (4-6-1) - 86.2
86. Colorado State Rams (6-5) - 87.5
87. Arizona Wildcats (5-6) - 88.0
88. NC State Wolfpack (3-7-1) - 89.5
89. Central Michigan Chippewas (7-4) - 89.7
90. Southern Illinois Salukis (7-4) - 89.9
91. Louisville Cardinals (4-7) - 90.1
92. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 92.3
93. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-9) - 93.3
94. Indiana Hoosiers (5-6) - 93.9
95. Army Black Knights (5-6) - 94.3
96. Oregon Ducks (4-7) - 95.5
97. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-6) - 97.5
98. SMU Mustangs (3-8) - 97.9
99. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-7) - 98.2
100. Miami University RedHawks (3-8) - 99.9
101. Cornell Big Red (2-7) - 100.0
102. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (4-5-2) - 100.7
103. Northwestern State Demons (5-5) - 101.5
104. Washington State Cougars (3-8) - 102.1
105. Air Force Falcons (4-7) - 106.0
(tie) Tulane Green Wave (2-9) - 106.0
107. Temple Owls (4-6) - 106.4
108. Columbia Lions (3-6) - 106.9
109. Wichita State Shockers (4-7) - 109.9
110. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 110.6
111. Princeton Tigers (2-7) - 111.2
112. Pennsylvania Relays (3-6) - 112.6
113. Kansas State Wildcats (1-10) - 113.5
114. Toledo Rockets (3-8) - 113.9
115. Syracuse Orange (3-8) - 117.2
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-7) - 117.8
117. Dayton Flyers (4-7) - 118.5
(tie) Illinois State Redbirds (5-6) - 118.5
119. Utah State Aggies (3-8) - 119.6
120. New Mexico State Aggies (4-6-1) - 120.7
121. Rice Owls (3-8) - 121.8
122. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 123.0
123. Indiana State Sycamores (3-7) - 123.3
124. Cal State Fullerton Titans (3-7-1) - 125.8
125. Oregon State Beavers (2-10) - 126.3
126. Utah Utes (3-8) - 126.7
127. Holy Cross Crusaders (3-8) - 126.9
128. Pacific Tigers (2-9) - 128.6
129. Virginia Cavaliers (2-9) - 128.9
130. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-9) - 130.0
131. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-9) - 131.2
132. Lamar Cardinals (2-9) - 132.3
133. Drake Bulldogs (1-10) - 133.8
134. Hawaii Warriors (3-8) - 135.3
135. UTEP Miners (1-11) - 135.7
136. TCU Horned Frogs (0-11) - 137.2
137. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-10) - 137.8
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Sunday, June 20, 2010
1977 Final Rankings
In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. 1977 was the final year before Division 1 split into Division 1-A and Division 1-AA. In anticipation of this, several teams (in fact entire conferences), such as Grambling State (to give one team as an example) moved up to compete for a single year at this highest division before joining the new Division 1-AA. As a result, the rankings list is particularly long this year, and it is possible that some teams who were very successful were really only playing a Division II (or I-AA) schedule against each other and not playing teams from conferences that truly were Division I-A, which is a problem for our system, because it does rely a great deal on non-conference games to help our adjustments for quality of competition be more accurate. Regardless, here are the final rankings from 1977:
1. Arkansas Razorbacks (11-1) - 1.8
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) - 2.0
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 2.4
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 3.8
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 5.4
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 6.1
7. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-2-1) - 6.9
8. San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) - 9.0
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-3) - 9.2
10. Kentucky Wildcats (10-1) - 10.0
11. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 11.6
12. Florida State Seminoles (10-2) - 12.7
13. Grambling State Tigers (10-1) - 13.7
14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 14.2
15. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) - 15.4
16. USC Trojans (8-4) - 16.5
17. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3-1) - 16.6
18. Tennessee State Tigers (8-1-1) - 19.0
19. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 19.5
20. Colgate Raiders (10-1) - 19.9
(tie) Washington Huskies (8-4) - 19.9
22. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 22.6
23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 23.9
24. Clemson Tigers (8-3-1) - 24.8
25. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 25.5
26. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-1-2) - 25.9
27. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 26.3
28. Colorado State Rams (9-2-1) - 27.9
29. Ball State Cardinals (9-2) - 29.0
30. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 30.7
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-1) - 30.7
32. Central Michigan Chippewas (10-1) - 32.0
33. Colorado Buffaloes (7-3-1) - 32.4
34. UCLA Bruins (7-4) - 33.1
35. Yale Bulldogs (7-2) - 34.0
36. Michigan State Spartans (7-3-1) - 34.9
37. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 38.4
38. Washington State Cougars (6-5) - 40.0
39. ECU Pirates (8-3) - 40.8
40. California Golden Bears (7-4) - 40.9
41. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 41.1
42. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 42.2
43. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) - 43.0
44. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 43.2
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 43.7
46. Brown Bears (7-2) - 45.6
47. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 47.9
48. Duke Blue Devils (5-6) - 50.1
(tie) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-5) - 50.1
50. Houston Cougars (6-5) - 50.2
51. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 51.2
52. Jackson State Tigers (8-3) - 52.1
53. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-4-2) - 52.4
54. Syracuse Orange (6-5) - 53.2
55. Florida Gators (6-4-1) - 54.6
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (5-7) - 54.6
57. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (9-1-1) - 54.9
58. Memphis Tigers (6-5) - 58.5
59. Missouri Tigers (4-7) - 58.8
60. Baylor Bears (5-6) - 59.8
61. Navy Midshipmen (5-6) - 61.5
62. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 62.6
63. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 63.3
64. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 65.1
65. Hawaii Warriors (5-6) - 65.2
66. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4-2) - 68.6
67. William & Mary Tribe (6-5) - 68.9
68. Tennessee Volunteers (4-7) - 69.4
69. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 69.8
70. Army Black Knights (7-4) - 70.0
71. Temple Owls (5-5-1) - 70.3
72. Pacific Tigers (6-5) - 71.8
73. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4-1) - 72.5
74. Georgia Bulldogs (5-6) - 74.2
75. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-3) - 74.7
76. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 76.6
77. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 76.8
78. Princeton Tigers (3-6) - 77.2
79. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 79.3
80. VMI Keydets (7-4) - 80.7
81. Indiana Hoosiers (5-5-1) - 81.3
82. SMU Mustangs (4-7) - 82.4
83. Louisville Cardinals (7-4-1) - 82.5
84. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 83.3
85. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-7) - 84.3
86. Northwestern State Demons (6-5) - 84.7
87. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-5) - 85.4
88. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 87.4
89. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-7-1) - 88.9
90. Pennsylvania Relays (5-4) - 90.3
91. Villanova Wildcats (4-7) - 90.8
92. Harvard Crimson (4-5) - 91.7
93. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-7) - 92.9
94. Texas Southern Tigers (6-4-1) - 95.8
95. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 95.9
96. McNeese State Cowboys (5-5-1) - 96.8
97. Western Michigan Broncos (4-7) - 97.7
98. Wyoming Cowboys (4-6-1) - 98.7
99. Miami Hurricanes (3-8) - 99.1
100. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 99.4
101. San Jose State Spartans (4-7) - 99.8
102. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 101.1
103. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 101.4
104. Tulane Green Wave (3-8) - 102.7
105. Kansas Jayhawks (3-7-1) - 103.3
106. Furman Paladins (4-5-2) - 104.2
107. Long Beach State 49ers (4-6) - 105.7
108. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-4-1) - 106.7
109. Wichita State Shockers (5-6) - 108.5
110. Oregon State Beavers (2-9) - 110.1
111. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 110.6
112. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (5-5) - 110.9
113. Illinois State Redbirds (3-7-1) - 111.8
114. New Mexico State Aggies (4-7) - 114.3
115. Utah Utes (3-8) - 115.7
116. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 116.4
117. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-8) - 117.6
118. Cal State Fullerton Titans (4-7) - 119.0
119. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 119.2
120. Air Force Falcons (2-8-1) - 119.6
121. Kansas State Wildcats (1-10) - 121.2
122. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 123.3
123. Cornell Big Red (1-8) - 124.0
124. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-8) - 125.0
125. Lamar Cardinals (2-9) - 126.4
126. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 127.6
127. Prairie View A&M Panthers (3-8) - 129.7
128. Alcorn State Braves (3-8) - 132.0
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 132.0
130. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-9) - 132.4
131. Southern Jaguars (3-7-1) - 132.8
132. Virginia Cavaliers (1-9-1) - 133.0
133. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 133.8
134. Southern Illinois Salukis (3-8) - 134.0
135. Indiana State Sycamores (3-7) - 134.1
136. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 135.4
137. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 135.5
138. Ohio Bobcats (1-10) - 138.5
139. Holy Cross Crusaders (2-9) - 139.1
140. Drake Bulldogs (2-9) - 140.0
141. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 140.6
142. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-9) - 143.1
143. Rice Owls (1-10) - 144.3
(tie) UTEP Miners (1-10) - 144.3
145. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-9) - 145.5
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
1. Arkansas Razorbacks (11-1) - 1.8
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) - 2.0
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 2.4
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 3.8
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 5.4
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 6.1
7. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-2-1) - 6.9
8. San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) - 9.0
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-3) - 9.2
10. Kentucky Wildcats (10-1) - 10.0
11. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 11.6
12. Florida State Seminoles (10-2) - 12.7
13. Grambling State Tigers (10-1) - 13.7
14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 14.2
15. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) - 15.4
16. USC Trojans (8-4) - 16.5
17. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3-1) - 16.6
18. Tennessee State Tigers (8-1-1) - 19.0
19. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 19.5
20. Colgate Raiders (10-1) - 19.9
(tie) Washington Huskies (8-4) - 19.9
22. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 22.6
23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 23.9
24. Clemson Tigers (8-3-1) - 24.8
25. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 25.5
26. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-1-2) - 25.9
27. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 26.3
28. Colorado State Rams (9-2-1) - 27.9
29. Ball State Cardinals (9-2) - 29.0
30. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 30.7
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-1) - 30.7
32. Central Michigan Chippewas (10-1) - 32.0
33. Colorado Buffaloes (7-3-1) - 32.4
34. UCLA Bruins (7-4) - 33.1
35. Yale Bulldogs (7-2) - 34.0
36. Michigan State Spartans (7-3-1) - 34.9
37. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 38.4
38. Washington State Cougars (6-5) - 40.0
39. ECU Pirates (8-3) - 40.8
40. California Golden Bears (7-4) - 40.9
41. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 41.1
42. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 42.2
43. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) - 43.0
44. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 43.2
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 43.7
46. Brown Bears (7-2) - 45.6
47. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 47.9
48. Duke Blue Devils (5-6) - 50.1
(tie) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-5) - 50.1
50. Houston Cougars (6-5) - 50.2
51. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 51.2
52. Jackson State Tigers (8-3) - 52.1
53. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-4-2) - 52.4
54. Syracuse Orange (6-5) - 53.2
55. Florida Gators (6-4-1) - 54.6
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (5-7) - 54.6
57. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (9-1-1) - 54.9
58. Memphis Tigers (6-5) - 58.5
59. Missouri Tigers (4-7) - 58.8
60. Baylor Bears (5-6) - 59.8
61. Navy Midshipmen (5-6) - 61.5
62. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 62.6
63. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 63.3
64. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 65.1
65. Hawaii Warriors (5-6) - 65.2
66. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4-2) - 68.6
67. William & Mary Tribe (6-5) - 68.9
68. Tennessee Volunteers (4-7) - 69.4
69. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 69.8
70. Army Black Knights (7-4) - 70.0
71. Temple Owls (5-5-1) - 70.3
72. Pacific Tigers (6-5) - 71.8
73. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4-1) - 72.5
74. Georgia Bulldogs (5-6) - 74.2
75. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-3) - 74.7
76. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 76.6
77. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 76.8
78. Princeton Tigers (3-6) - 77.2
79. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 79.3
80. VMI Keydets (7-4) - 80.7
81. Indiana Hoosiers (5-5-1) - 81.3
82. SMU Mustangs (4-7) - 82.4
83. Louisville Cardinals (7-4-1) - 82.5
84. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 83.3
85. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-7) - 84.3
86. Northwestern State Demons (6-5) - 84.7
87. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-5) - 85.4
88. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 87.4
89. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-7-1) - 88.9
90. Pennsylvania Relays (5-4) - 90.3
91. Villanova Wildcats (4-7) - 90.8
92. Harvard Crimson (4-5) - 91.7
93. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-7) - 92.9
94. Texas Southern Tigers (6-4-1) - 95.8
95. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 95.9
96. McNeese State Cowboys (5-5-1) - 96.8
97. Western Michigan Broncos (4-7) - 97.7
98. Wyoming Cowboys (4-6-1) - 98.7
99. Miami Hurricanes (3-8) - 99.1
100. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 99.4
101. San Jose State Spartans (4-7) - 99.8
102. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 101.1
103. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 101.4
104. Tulane Green Wave (3-8) - 102.7
105. Kansas Jayhawks (3-7-1) - 103.3
106. Furman Paladins (4-5-2) - 104.2
107. Long Beach State 49ers (4-6) - 105.7
108. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-4-1) - 106.7
109. Wichita State Shockers (5-6) - 108.5
110. Oregon State Beavers (2-9) - 110.1
111. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 110.6
112. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (5-5) - 110.9
113. Illinois State Redbirds (3-7-1) - 111.8
114. New Mexico State Aggies (4-7) - 114.3
115. Utah Utes (3-8) - 115.7
116. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 116.4
117. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-8) - 117.6
118. Cal State Fullerton Titans (4-7) - 119.0
119. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 119.2
120. Air Force Falcons (2-8-1) - 119.6
121. Kansas State Wildcats (1-10) - 121.2
122. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 123.3
123. Cornell Big Red (1-8) - 124.0
124. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-8) - 125.0
125. Lamar Cardinals (2-9) - 126.4
126. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 127.6
127. Prairie View A&M Panthers (3-8) - 129.7
128. Alcorn State Braves (3-8) - 132.0
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 132.0
130. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-9) - 132.4
131. Southern Jaguars (3-7-1) - 132.8
132. Virginia Cavaliers (1-9-1) - 133.0
133. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 133.8
134. Southern Illinois Salukis (3-8) - 134.0
135. Indiana State Sycamores (3-7) - 134.1
136. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 135.4
137. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 135.5
138. Ohio Bobcats (1-10) - 138.5
139. Holy Cross Crusaders (2-9) - 139.1
140. Drake Bulldogs (2-9) - 140.0
141. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 140.6
142. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-9) - 143.1
143. Rice Owls (1-10) - 144.3
(tie) UTEP Miners (1-10) - 144.3
145. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-9) - 145.5
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
Monday, June 14, 2010
Superconferences
Here is (we think) our final blog on the subject of what would truly be the ideal setup for a four-superconference college football landscape. This version takes into account both competitive balance AND geography. We do have a few teams travelling a little bit, but that is a result of our desire to keep all eight divisions of all four superconferences relatively equal based on our 40-year analysis. This seems to us to be the best compromise - and with some tweaks might present the ideal alignment for a four-superconference NCAA football landscape.
East Conference
North Division
Boston College Eagles
Connecticut Huskies
Georgia Bulldogs
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Virginia Cavaliers
West Virginia Mountaineers
South Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Maryland Terrapins
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
South Florida Bulls
Mideast Conference
North Division
Cincinnati Bearcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan State Spartans
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Virginia Tech Hokies
Wisconsin Badgers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Texas A&M Aggies
Midwest Conference
North Division
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
TCU Horned Frogs
Tennessee Volunteers
South Division
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Texas Longhorns
West Conference
North Division
Boise State Broncos
Colorado Buffaloes
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
South Division
Air Force Falcons
BYU Cougars
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Stanford Cardinal
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Okay, enough fantasizing about what could but never will be. Back to analyzing and ranking previous years' football seasons.
East Conference
North Division
Boston College Eagles
Connecticut Huskies
Georgia Bulldogs
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Virginia Cavaliers
West Virginia Mountaineers
South Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Maryland Terrapins
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
South Florida Bulls
Mideast Conference
North Division
Cincinnati Bearcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan State Spartans
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Virginia Tech Hokies
Wisconsin Badgers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Texas A&M Aggies
Midwest Conference
North Division
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
TCU Horned Frogs
Tennessee Volunteers
South Division
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Texas Longhorns
West Conference
North Division
Boise State Broncos
Colorado Buffaloes
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
South Division
Air Force Falcons
BYU Cougars
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Stanford Cardinal
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Okay, enough fantasizing about what could but never will be. Back to analyzing and ranking previous years' football seasons.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Four Equally Competitive Conferences
If balanced competitiveness between the eight superconferences is most important and geography no longer matters - apparently that's true at least for the Big 12 and PAC-10 now - here's an alignment of our 64-team, four-conference setup with the teams spread out so that, historically speaking, they should stand the best chance of being equally competitive top to bottom.
First Conference
First Division
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
Florida Gators
Kansas State Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan Wolverines
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Washington State Cougars
Second Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Georgia Bulldogs
Maryland Terrapins
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Wisconsin Badgers
Second Conference
First Division
Air Force Falcons
California Golden Bears
Connecticut Huskies
LSU Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Utah Utes
Second Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ole Miss Rebels
Penn State Nittany Lions
Stanford Cardinal
Texas A&M Aggies
Washington Huskies
Third Conference
First Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Missouri Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
UCLA Bruins
Second Division
BYU Cougars
Iowa Hawkeyes
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Hurricanes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Fourth Conference
First Division
Arizona Wildcats
Auburn Tigers
Boston College Eagles
Kentucky Wildcats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
USC Trojans
Second Division
Fresno State Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Minnesota Golden Gophers
South Florida Bulls
Texas Longhorns
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
Your analysis? We'd love to hear what you think.
First Conference
First Division
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
Florida Gators
Kansas State Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan Wolverines
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Washington State Cougars
Second Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Georgia Bulldogs
Maryland Terrapins
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Wisconsin Badgers
Second Conference
First Division
Air Force Falcons
California Golden Bears
Connecticut Huskies
LSU Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Utah Utes
Second Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ole Miss Rebels
Penn State Nittany Lions
Stanford Cardinal
Texas A&M Aggies
Washington Huskies
Third Conference
First Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Missouri Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
UCLA Bruins
Second Division
BYU Cougars
Iowa Hawkeyes
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Hurricanes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Fourth Conference
First Division
Arizona Wildcats
Auburn Tigers
Boston College Eagles
Kentucky Wildcats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
USC Trojans
Second Division
Fresno State Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Minnesota Golden Gophers
South Florida Bulls
Texas Longhorns
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
Your analysis? We'd love to hear what you think.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
1978 Final Rankings
In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. Here are the final rankings from 1978:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 1.1
2. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) - 2.3
3. USC Trojans (12-1) - 3.3
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 4.0
5. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.7
6. Clemson Tigers (11-1) - 6.3
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 8.1
8. Ball State Cardinals (10-1) - 8.3
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 8.5
10. Michigan State Spartans (8-3) - 9.0
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2-1) - 10.9
12. Texas Longhorns (9-3) - 13.1
13. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 14.2
14. Stanford Cardinal (8-4) - 15.5
15. Purdue Boilermakers (9-2-1) - 15.7
16. Central Michigan Chippewas (9-2) - 15.8
17. Maryland Terrapins (9-3) - 16.4
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 17.7
19. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2-1) - 19.1
20. Washington Huskies (7-4) - 19.2
21. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 21.5
22. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 22.2
23. Missouri Tigers (8-4) - 22.6
24. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - 24.0
25. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 25.2
26. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-4-1) - 26.4
27. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 26.6
28. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-2) - 26.7
29. BYU Cougars (9-4) - 31.0
(tie) Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 31.0
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 31.3
32. UCLA Bruins (8-3-1) - 31.8
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-5) - 33.6
34. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 33.9
35. SMU Mustangs (4-6-1) - 36.6
36. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 36.9
37. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 37.6
38. Utah Utes (8-3) - 38.2
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) - 38.7
40. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-5-1) - 40.4
41. Miami University RedHawks (8-2-1) - 40.9
42. Yale Bulldogs (5-2-2) - 42.6
43. Temple Owls (7-3-1) - 42.9
44. Florida Gators (4-7) - 43.5
45. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-4) - 43.9
46. Furman Paladins (8-3) - 44.4
47. Utah State Aggies (7-4) - 49.1
48. Arizona Wildcats (5-6) - 49.4
49. Auburn Tigers (6-4-1) - 50.4
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5) - 50.7
51. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (7-3-1) - 50.9
52. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 51.1
53. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 51.7
54. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 52.5
55. New Mexico Lobos (7-5) - 54.7
56. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-4) - 57.8
57. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 57.9
58. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 58.6
59. McNeese State Cowboys (7-4) - 59.6
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 60.6
61. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-6) - 62.0
62. Tennessee Volunteers (5-5-1) - 62.6
63. Colorado Buffaloes (6-5) - 63.1
64. Miami Hurricanes (6-5) - 63.2
65. Cornell Big Red (5-3-1) - 63.4
66. Baylor Bears (3-8) - 63.8
67. Western Michigan Broncos (7-4) - 66.2
68. UNLV Rebels (7-4) - 67.7
69. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 68.2
70. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6-1) - 70.1
71. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 70.7
72. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 71.7
73. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-4-1) - 72.8
74. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 74.1
75. Hawaii Warriors (6-5) - 74.2
76. William & Mary Tribe (5-5-1) - 76.0
77. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-5) - 76.7
78. Indiana Hoosiers (4-7) - 77.6
79. Washington State Cougars (3-7-1) - 79.4
80. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 80.1
81. Holy Cross Crusaders (7-4) - 80.2
82. Brown Bears (6-3) - 81.4
83. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4-2) - 84.3
84. Memphis Tigers (4-7) - 84.5
85. Colorado State Rams (5-6) - 86.1
86. New Mexico State Aggies (6-5) - 86.4
87. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 87.2
88. Harvard Crimson (4-4-1) - 88.7
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-7) - 89.1
90. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 89.4
91. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 89.7
92. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-7) - 91.3
93. Villanova Wildcats (5-6) - 91.9
94. San Diego State Aztecs (4-7) - 95.3
95. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 95.7
96. Princeton Tigers (2-5-2) - 96.7
97. Kansas State Wildcats (4-7) - 97.3
98. Tulane Green Wave (4-7) - 98.7
99. Southern Illinois Salukis (7-4) - 98.9
100. Oregon State Beavers (3-7-1) - 99.7
101. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-6) - 100.6
102. Colgate Raiders (3-8) - 100.8
103. Columbia Lions (3-5-1) - 102.3
104. Northwestern State Demons (5-6) - 105.6
105. Long Beach State 49ers (5-6) - 105.8
106. Pennsylvania Relays (2-6-1) - 106.6
107. Drake Bulldogs (4-7) - 106.7
108. Cal State Fullerton Titans (5-7) - 108.1
(tie) Syracuse Orange (3-8) - 108.1
110. Pacific Tigers (4-8) - 108.6
111. Wichita State Shockers (4-7) - 110.4
112. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (3-8) - 110.6
113. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-8) - 113.8
114. Rice Owls (2-9) - 114.3
115. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-6) - 115.5
116. VMI Keydets (3-8) - 116.3
117. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 119.6
118. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-9) - 120.0
119. Army Black Knights (4-6-1) - 120.6
120. Lamar Cardinals (2-8-1) - 121.7
121. Kansas Jayhawks (1-10) - 122.4
122. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 122.9
123. Indiana State Sycamores (3-8) - 123.5
124. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-7) - 123.6
125. Virginia Cavaliers (2-9) - 124.7
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-8) - 124.9
127. Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-7) - 127.1
128. Ohio Bobcats (3-8) - 127.4
129. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-9) - 130.3
130. Marshall Thundering Herd (1-10) - 130.6
131. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-8-2) - 132.3
132. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 132.8
133. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 133.5
134. Air Force Falcons (3-8) - 134.5
135. Illinois State Redbirds (2-9) - 135.8
136. Boston College Eagles (0-11) - 137.2
137. UTEP Miners (1-11) - 137.3
138. Northwestern Wildcats (0-10-1) - 139.0
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 1.1
2. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) - 2.3
3. USC Trojans (12-1) - 3.3
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 4.0
5. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.7
6. Clemson Tigers (11-1) - 6.3
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 8.1
8. Ball State Cardinals (10-1) - 8.3
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 8.5
10. Michigan State Spartans (8-3) - 9.0
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2-1) - 10.9
12. Texas Longhorns (9-3) - 13.1
13. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 14.2
14. Stanford Cardinal (8-4) - 15.5
15. Purdue Boilermakers (9-2-1) - 15.7
16. Central Michigan Chippewas (9-2) - 15.8
17. Maryland Terrapins (9-3) - 16.4
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 17.7
19. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2-1) - 19.1
20. Washington Huskies (7-4) - 19.2
21. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 21.5
22. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 22.2
23. Missouri Tigers (8-4) - 22.6
24. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - 24.0
25. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 25.2
26. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-4-1) - 26.4
27. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 26.6
28. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-2) - 26.7
29. BYU Cougars (9-4) - 31.0
(tie) Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 31.0
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 31.3
32. UCLA Bruins (8-3-1) - 31.8
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-5) - 33.6
34. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 33.9
35. SMU Mustangs (4-6-1) - 36.6
36. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 36.9
37. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 37.6
38. Utah Utes (8-3) - 38.2
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) - 38.7
40. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-5-1) - 40.4
41. Miami University RedHawks (8-2-1) - 40.9
42. Yale Bulldogs (5-2-2) - 42.6
43. Temple Owls (7-3-1) - 42.9
44. Florida Gators (4-7) - 43.5
45. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-4) - 43.9
46. Furman Paladins (8-3) - 44.4
47. Utah State Aggies (7-4) - 49.1
48. Arizona Wildcats (5-6) - 49.4
49. Auburn Tigers (6-4-1) - 50.4
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5) - 50.7
51. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (7-3-1) - 50.9
52. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 51.1
53. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 51.7
54. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 52.5
55. New Mexico Lobos (7-5) - 54.7
56. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-4) - 57.8
57. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 57.9
58. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 58.6
59. McNeese State Cowboys (7-4) - 59.6
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 60.6
61. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-6) - 62.0
62. Tennessee Volunteers (5-5-1) - 62.6
63. Colorado Buffaloes (6-5) - 63.1
64. Miami Hurricanes (6-5) - 63.2
65. Cornell Big Red (5-3-1) - 63.4
66. Baylor Bears (3-8) - 63.8
67. Western Michigan Broncos (7-4) - 66.2
68. UNLV Rebels (7-4) - 67.7
69. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 68.2
70. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6-1) - 70.1
71. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 70.7
72. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 71.7
73. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-4-1) - 72.8
74. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 74.1
75. Hawaii Warriors (6-5) - 74.2
76. William & Mary Tribe (5-5-1) - 76.0
77. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-5) - 76.7
78. Indiana Hoosiers (4-7) - 77.6
79. Washington State Cougars (3-7-1) - 79.4
80. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 80.1
81. Holy Cross Crusaders (7-4) - 80.2
82. Brown Bears (6-3) - 81.4
83. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4-2) - 84.3
84. Memphis Tigers (4-7) - 84.5
85. Colorado State Rams (5-6) - 86.1
86. New Mexico State Aggies (6-5) - 86.4
87. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 87.2
88. Harvard Crimson (4-4-1) - 88.7
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-7) - 89.1
90. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 89.4
91. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 89.7
92. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-7) - 91.3
93. Villanova Wildcats (5-6) - 91.9
94. San Diego State Aztecs (4-7) - 95.3
95. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 95.7
96. Princeton Tigers (2-5-2) - 96.7
97. Kansas State Wildcats (4-7) - 97.3
98. Tulane Green Wave (4-7) - 98.7
99. Southern Illinois Salukis (7-4) - 98.9
100. Oregon State Beavers (3-7-1) - 99.7
101. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-6) - 100.6
102. Colgate Raiders (3-8) - 100.8
103. Columbia Lions (3-5-1) - 102.3
104. Northwestern State Demons (5-6) - 105.6
105. Long Beach State 49ers (5-6) - 105.8
106. Pennsylvania Relays (2-6-1) - 106.6
107. Drake Bulldogs (4-7) - 106.7
108. Cal State Fullerton Titans (5-7) - 108.1
(tie) Syracuse Orange (3-8) - 108.1
110. Pacific Tigers (4-8) - 108.6
111. Wichita State Shockers (4-7) - 110.4
112. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (3-8) - 110.6
113. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-8) - 113.8
114. Rice Owls (2-9) - 114.3
115. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-6) - 115.5
116. VMI Keydets (3-8) - 116.3
117. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 119.6
118. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-9) - 120.0
119. Army Black Knights (4-6-1) - 120.6
120. Lamar Cardinals (2-8-1) - 121.7
121. Kansas Jayhawks (1-10) - 122.4
122. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 122.9
123. Indiana State Sycamores (3-8) - 123.5
124. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-7) - 123.6
125. Virginia Cavaliers (2-9) - 124.7
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-8) - 124.9
127. Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-7) - 127.1
128. Ohio Bobcats (3-8) - 127.4
129. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-9) - 130.3
130. Marshall Thundering Herd (1-10) - 130.6
131. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-8-2) - 132.3
132. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 132.8
133. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 133.5
134. Air Force Falcons (3-8) - 134.5
135. Illinois State Redbirds (2-9) - 135.8
136. Boston College Eagles (0-11) - 137.2
137. UTEP Miners (1-11) - 137.3
138. Northwestern Wildcats (0-10-1) - 139.0
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Expansion Part 2
If four superconferences of 16 teams each is the ideal - leading to a potential 4-team playoff between the champions, then why not include the 64 best teams in these four superconferences? Here's a potential four-conference/eight-division alignment involving the 64 most deserving teams according to the same analysis of the past 40 years used in our previous post about expansion:
Western Conference
North Division
Boise State Broncos
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
South Division
Air Force Falcons
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BYU Cougars
Colorado Buffaloes
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
Midwest Conference
North Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
Missouri Tigers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
South Division
LSU Tigers
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Southeastern Conference
North Division
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
South Florida Bulls
Northeastern Conference
West Division
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers
East Division
Boston College Eagles
Cincinnati Bearcats
Connecticut Huskies
Maryland Terrapins
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Not perfect - there are a couple of long-standing rivalries that get split up. We only took the 64 most consistently good teams and then used geography as our main determinant in alignment. But still fun. And not going to happen. Instead, teams like Baylor and Duke will get a payday without ever having to consistently field a good football team and other, more deserving teams will be left on the outside without a chance to win a national championship or receive an automatic bid to a high-paying bowl despite having one or two losses. Notice that the Western Conference is just the PAC-10 plus BYU, Utah, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force and Colorado. Why does this expansion actually make more sense to us than adding the state of Texas? Which is why our alignment will never actually happen.
Western Conference
North Division
Boise State Broncos
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
South Division
Air Force Falcons
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BYU Cougars
Colorado Buffaloes
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
Midwest Conference
North Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
Missouri Tigers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
South Division
LSU Tigers
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Southeastern Conference
North Division
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
South Florida Bulls
Northeastern Conference
West Division
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers
East Division
Boston College Eagles
Cincinnati Bearcats
Connecticut Huskies
Maryland Terrapins
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Not perfect - there are a couple of long-standing rivalries that get split up. We only took the 64 most consistently good teams and then used geography as our main determinant in alignment. But still fun. And not going to happen. Instead, teams like Baylor and Duke will get a payday without ever having to consistently field a good football team and other, more deserving teams will be left on the outside without a chance to win a national championship or receive an automatic bid to a high-paying bowl despite having one or two losses. Notice that the Western Conference is just the PAC-10 plus BYU, Utah, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force and Colorado. Why does this expansion actually make more sense to us than adding the state of Texas? Which is why our alignment will never actually happen.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Expansion Evaluation Data
Here are the evaluation results we used in selecting the teams to include in our pair of monster conferences so you can see how close your team is to being included or left out:
1. Florida Gators 0.905931041
2. Ohio State Buckeyes 0.892636285
3. Florida State Seminoles 0.852947919
4. USC Trojans 0.852537062
5. Texas Longhorns 0.849951634
6. Oklahoma Sooners 0.848196785
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.842848364
8. Georgia Bulldogs 0.821654624
9. Alabama Crimson Tide 0.820802826
10. Penn State Nittany Lions 0.818755745
11. Miami Hurricanes 0.81676501
12. Virginia Tech Hokies 0.805409853
13. Auburn Tigers 0.787883297
14. Tennessee Volunteers 0.786367364
15. LSU Tigers 0.780463039
16. Michigan Wolverines 0.773107126
17. Boise State Broncos 0.744543101
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.731091308
19. Clemson Tigers 0.728839575
20. Oregon Ducks 0.727037582
21. West Virginia Mountaineers 0.726474885
22. BYU Cougars 0.719570079
23. Arkansas Razorbacks 0.707752016
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders 0.697911196
25. Wisconsin Badgers 0.673260343
26. Texas A&M Aggies 0.669048834
27. Iowa Hawkeyes 0.667959813
28. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.667032088
29. Boston College Eagles 0.66690124
30. UCLA Bruins 0.661575848
31. Utah Utes 0.646091488
32. Arizona State Sun Devils 0.63260917
33. Michigan State Spartans 0.626786766
34. California Golden Bears 0.620927961
35. South Carolina Gamecocks 0.616879167
36. Arizona Wildcats 0.608733563
37. South Florida Bulls 0.605504218
38. Pittsburgh Panthers 0.602646144
39. Washington Huskies 0.592704956
40. Colorado Buffaloes 0.590433831
41. TCU Horned Frogs 0.590299938
42. Ole Miss Rebels 0.589946483
43. Oklahoma State Cowboys 0.587378628
44. Virginia Cavaliers 0.584549717
45. North Carolina Tar Heels 0.575552991
46. Missouri Tigers 0.565563792
47. Purdue Boilermakers 0.564469101
48. Kansas State Wildcats 0.56429574
49. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 0.561674345
50. Air Force Falcons 0.558560387
51. NC State Wolfpack 0.551447176
52. Oregon State Beavers 0.550938604
53. Fresno State Bulldogs 0.544720076
54. Louisville Cardinals 0.53992107
55. Stanford Cardinal 0.538924491
56. Maryland Terrapins 0.536224647
57. Cincinnati Bearcats 0.520325159
58. Kansas Jayhawks 0.513312984
59. Syracuse Orange 0.510129941
60. Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.493540071
61. Kentucky Wildcats 0.492849648
62. Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.48225759
63. Connecticut Huskies 0.479001581
64. Washington State Cougars 0.475402398
65. ECU Pirates 0.467097585
66. Houston Cougars 0.455989606
67. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.454497177
68. Marshall Thundering Herd 0.452625312
69. Illinois Fighting Illini 0.452464541
70. Hawaii Warriors 0.449344821
71. Troy Trojans 0.441616559
72. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.441441707
73. Bowling Green Falcons 0.440901294
74. Colorado State Rams 0.427862429
75. Toledo Rockets 0.406903955
76. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 0.404108017
77. Northwestern Wildcats 0.400706851
78. UCF Knights 0.396228835
79. Nevada Wolf Pack 0.390695476
80. Navy Midshipmen 0.390046895
81. Miami University RedHawks 0.385402827
82. Central Michigan Chippewas 0.379305033
83. Wyoming Cowboys 0.376961332
84. Baylor Bears 0.375512248
85. Iowa State Cyclones 0.365165493
86. San Diego State Aztecs 0.358024954
87. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0.352480659
88. Indiana Hoosiers 0.349555905
89. New Mexico Lobos 0.34495049
90. Western Michigan Broncos 0.341444768
91. Northern Illinois Huskies 0.340245672
92. Memphis Tigers 0.335795082
93. Vanderbilt Commodores 0.324652844
94. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.316678682
95. Ball State Cardinals 0.308678924
96. UAB Blazers 0.282700656
97. SMU Mustangs 0.275653668
98. Rice Owls 0.271264163
99. San Jose State Spartans 0.269247726
100. Florida Atlantic Owls 0.26767053
101. Duke Blue Devils 0.249064727
102. Ohio Bobcats 0.248993533
103. UTEP Miners 0.248226137
104. Tulane Green Wave 0.239776202
105. UNLV Rebels 0.232534482
106. Temple Owls 0.229495739
107. Akron Zips 0.201891705
108. Utah State Aggies 0.201512714
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 0.198665574
110. Army Black Knights 0.184776418
111. North Texas Mean Green 0.169217433
112. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 0.165332886
113. Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.162968616
114. Idaho Vandals 0.148346236
115. Kent State Golden Flashes 0.138035992
116. Buffalo Bulls 0.135089242
117. Eastern Michigan Eagles 0.129503009
118. New Mexico State Aggies 0.124368478
119. FIU Golden Panthers 0.090246522
1. Florida Gators 0.905931041
2. Ohio State Buckeyes 0.892636285
3. Florida State Seminoles 0.852947919
4. USC Trojans 0.852537062
5. Texas Longhorns 0.849951634
6. Oklahoma Sooners 0.848196785
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.842848364
8. Georgia Bulldogs 0.821654624
9. Alabama Crimson Tide 0.820802826
10. Penn State Nittany Lions 0.818755745
11. Miami Hurricanes 0.81676501
12. Virginia Tech Hokies 0.805409853
13. Auburn Tigers 0.787883297
14. Tennessee Volunteers 0.786367364
15. LSU Tigers 0.780463039
16. Michigan Wolverines 0.773107126
17. Boise State Broncos 0.744543101
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.731091308
19. Clemson Tigers 0.728839575
20. Oregon Ducks 0.727037582
21. West Virginia Mountaineers 0.726474885
22. BYU Cougars 0.719570079
23. Arkansas Razorbacks 0.707752016
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders 0.697911196
25. Wisconsin Badgers 0.673260343
26. Texas A&M Aggies 0.669048834
27. Iowa Hawkeyes 0.667959813
28. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.667032088
29. Boston College Eagles 0.66690124
30. UCLA Bruins 0.661575848
31. Utah Utes 0.646091488
32. Arizona State Sun Devils 0.63260917
33. Michigan State Spartans 0.626786766
34. California Golden Bears 0.620927961
35. South Carolina Gamecocks 0.616879167
36. Arizona Wildcats 0.608733563
37. South Florida Bulls 0.605504218
38. Pittsburgh Panthers 0.602646144
39. Washington Huskies 0.592704956
40. Colorado Buffaloes 0.590433831
41. TCU Horned Frogs 0.590299938
42. Ole Miss Rebels 0.589946483
43. Oklahoma State Cowboys 0.587378628
44. Virginia Cavaliers 0.584549717
45. North Carolina Tar Heels 0.575552991
46. Missouri Tigers 0.565563792
47. Purdue Boilermakers 0.564469101
48. Kansas State Wildcats 0.56429574
49. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 0.561674345
50. Air Force Falcons 0.558560387
51. NC State Wolfpack 0.551447176
52. Oregon State Beavers 0.550938604
53. Fresno State Bulldogs 0.544720076
54. Louisville Cardinals 0.53992107
55. Stanford Cardinal 0.538924491
56. Maryland Terrapins 0.536224647
57. Cincinnati Bearcats 0.520325159
58. Kansas Jayhawks 0.513312984
59. Syracuse Orange 0.510129941
60. Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.493540071
61. Kentucky Wildcats 0.492849648
62. Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.48225759
63. Connecticut Huskies 0.479001581
64. Washington State Cougars 0.475402398
65. ECU Pirates 0.467097585
66. Houston Cougars 0.455989606
67. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.454497177
68. Marshall Thundering Herd 0.452625312
69. Illinois Fighting Illini 0.452464541
70. Hawaii Warriors 0.449344821
71. Troy Trojans 0.441616559
72. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.441441707
73. Bowling Green Falcons 0.440901294
74. Colorado State Rams 0.427862429
75. Toledo Rockets 0.406903955
76. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 0.404108017
77. Northwestern Wildcats 0.400706851
78. UCF Knights 0.396228835
79. Nevada Wolf Pack 0.390695476
80. Navy Midshipmen 0.390046895
81. Miami University RedHawks 0.385402827
82. Central Michigan Chippewas 0.379305033
83. Wyoming Cowboys 0.376961332
84. Baylor Bears 0.375512248
85. Iowa State Cyclones 0.365165493
86. San Diego State Aztecs 0.358024954
87. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0.352480659
88. Indiana Hoosiers 0.349555905
89. New Mexico Lobos 0.34495049
90. Western Michigan Broncos 0.341444768
91. Northern Illinois Huskies 0.340245672
92. Memphis Tigers 0.335795082
93. Vanderbilt Commodores 0.324652844
94. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.316678682
95. Ball State Cardinals 0.308678924
96. UAB Blazers 0.282700656
97. SMU Mustangs 0.275653668
98. Rice Owls 0.271264163
99. San Jose State Spartans 0.269247726
100. Florida Atlantic Owls 0.26767053
101. Duke Blue Devils 0.249064727
102. Ohio Bobcats 0.248993533
103. UTEP Miners 0.248226137
104. Tulane Green Wave 0.239776202
105. UNLV Rebels 0.232534482
106. Temple Owls 0.229495739
107. Akron Zips 0.201891705
108. Utah State Aggies 0.201512714
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 0.198665574
110. Army Black Knights 0.184776418
111. North Texas Mean Green 0.169217433
112. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 0.165332886
113. Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.162968616
114. Idaho Vandals 0.148346236
115. Kent State Golden Flashes 0.138035992
116. Buffalo Bulls 0.135089242
117. Eastern Michigan Eagles 0.129503009
118. New Mexico State Aggies 0.124368478
119. FIU Golden Panthers 0.090246522
Expansion - A Novel Approach That Will Never Happen
The potential expansion of the Big Ten and the PAC-10, perhaps at the expense of the Big 12 has been the center of college football discussion throughout the summer. Since there have been some pretty wild ideas put out there, we thought we'd throw in our own suggestion. And since none of the college presidents will be listening to us any way, why not propose the best 16-team monster conference that we can come up with? We ignore many of the factors that often play a part in such decisions, such as geography, existing rivalries and whether the college presidents think a school does enough research to be good in football. (We often have wondered what being a "research institution" has to do with playing football, not to mention such important athletic-related details as what religion the institution is affiliated with - but we guess it's just important to some people that such details control their football-based decisions.) Instead, we simply have analyzed the data and come up with the best 16-team football conference we could come up with.
Each school's record was analyzed for the past 40 years. We intend to go further back, but so far our analysis only goes back 40 years, so we're stuck with just looking at a team's history since 1970. Teams were evaluated based on historical success as a football team, with more recent success weighted heavier than success 40 years ago. The idea was to try and form a 16-team conference that contains the teams who have most consistently been good during the past 40 years and who have also been good recently based on the admitedly flawed premise that teams that fit this profile are most likely to be good in the future. (We admit this is a flawed premise, and yet this is the same premise the BCS has been using to justify giving teams from 6 conferences automatic bids to the highest-paid bowl games. It is still flawed, but at least we don't give credit to teams like the Duke Blue Devils - who rate out historically as the 101st most deserving team - just because they happen to have managed to be in the same conference as some consistently good teams.)
Anyway, here is the list of teams - our suggestion for a 16-team dream conference consisting of the most consistenly good football teams in the nation (in alphabetical order):
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
LSU Tigers
Miami Hurricanes
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Penn State Nittany Lions
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Longhorns
USC Trojans
Virginia Tech Hokies
If the presidents from these 16 schools could get together and form a brand new conference, the TV revenue alone would be off the charts. And the winner of the conference would almost certainly be a shoo-in to win the national championship. Of course, this would destroy the current BCS system or - for that matter - the bowls, because the conference championship might as well be the national championship. So, in the interest of keeping a national title game, we add 16 more teams to the mix. You might consider this a second-tier monster conference, but we have something else in mind. First, the list of the next 16 teams, again chosen through the same analysis as the first list - a 40-year history of success, with more recent success weighted higher than success decades ago.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
BYU Cougars
Clemson Tigers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Iowa Hawkeyes
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oregon Ducks
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
Utah Utes
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers
Rather than making a second, lesser conference, we suggest splitting the 32 teams into two conferences (for lack of a better name, an Eastern Conference and a Western Conference). Further, each conference will be split into two divisions (a Northern and Southern Division of each conference). This puts geography back into the equation, which is actually a good thing considering the cost of sending your entire football team across the country. The champions of the two conferences (after the conference championship games/semifinals) would then meet in the national title bowl game - at least that is what we would expect to happen most often.
This whole list is, of course, open to discussion - especially since it simply won't happen. TCU fans will wonder why Boise State is included and TCU is not, when Boise State was a Division I-AA school until 1996 - not exactly a 40-year history. It is true that our analysis only takes into account years in which the school competed in the highest division of football, giving Boise State a bit of an advantage. However, Boise State still rates higher than TCU if only the years since 1996 are taken into account. TCU was pretty consistenly dreadful prior to 2000. And it is pretty impressive how quickly Boise State moved from Division I-AA status to a competitive team on the national scale. If we decide on a way to penalize Boise State for being a Division I-AA school and if, as a result of this, they are pushed from the list, the next school in would actually be Michigan State.
Since we are discussing a pair of fictional football conferences that will never actually be created, we might as well go all the way and suggest alignments for the two conferences. Here is what we suggest, given these 32 teams to work with:
Western Conference
North Division
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
BYU Cougars
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
South Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Iowa Hawkeyes
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Eastern Conference
North Division
Boston College Eagles
Michigan Wolverines
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
The tough schools to place geographically this way are Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. It would have been nice to have been able to place the three of them in the same division, but in order to balance the number of schools in each division, they end up getting split up and each ends up with the worst travel situations among the 32 schools.
Well, that is our "dream" conference alignment - an alignment that we think would give marquis matchups every week of the regular season. Network TV executives take note. We'd even suggest a system whereby the analysis of all of the FBS teams that we have performed be recalculated at the end of each year, giving other teams the opportunity to move up into this pair of superconferences by establishing a strong history of success or dropping teams from the conferences that fall off drastically and lose that winning tradition, thereby ensuring that the most consistently good teams are represented each year in the conference (while allowing teams, because of the nature of the calculation, to have a "rebuilding" year or two without completely risking their place in the upper echelon of the sport).
We'd love to hear your responses and comments. After all, this is no less likely to happen than many of the other crazy ideas we've heard out there - and we think our suggestion makes sense as a starting point - at least in terms of creating the best football. What do you think?
Each school's record was analyzed for the past 40 years. We intend to go further back, but so far our analysis only goes back 40 years, so we're stuck with just looking at a team's history since 1970. Teams were evaluated based on historical success as a football team, with more recent success weighted heavier than success 40 years ago. The idea was to try and form a 16-team conference that contains the teams who have most consistently been good during the past 40 years and who have also been good recently based on the admitedly flawed premise that teams that fit this profile are most likely to be good in the future. (We admit this is a flawed premise, and yet this is the same premise the BCS has been using to justify giving teams from 6 conferences automatic bids to the highest-paid bowl games. It is still flawed, but at least we don't give credit to teams like the Duke Blue Devils - who rate out historically as the 101st most deserving team - just because they happen to have managed to be in the same conference as some consistently good teams.)
Anyway, here is the list of teams - our suggestion for a 16-team dream conference consisting of the most consistenly good football teams in the nation (in alphabetical order):
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
LSU Tigers
Miami Hurricanes
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Penn State Nittany Lions
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Longhorns
USC Trojans
Virginia Tech Hokies
If the presidents from these 16 schools could get together and form a brand new conference, the TV revenue alone would be off the charts. And the winner of the conference would almost certainly be a shoo-in to win the national championship. Of course, this would destroy the current BCS system or - for that matter - the bowls, because the conference championship might as well be the national championship. So, in the interest of keeping a national title game, we add 16 more teams to the mix. You might consider this a second-tier monster conference, but we have something else in mind. First, the list of the next 16 teams, again chosen through the same analysis as the first list - a 40-year history of success, with more recent success weighted higher than success decades ago.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
BYU Cougars
Clemson Tigers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Iowa Hawkeyes
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oregon Ducks
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
Utah Utes
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers
Rather than making a second, lesser conference, we suggest splitting the 32 teams into two conferences (for lack of a better name, an Eastern Conference and a Western Conference). Further, each conference will be split into two divisions (a Northern and Southern Division of each conference). This puts geography back into the equation, which is actually a good thing considering the cost of sending your entire football team across the country. The champions of the two conferences (after the conference championship games/semifinals) would then meet in the national title bowl game - at least that is what we would expect to happen most often.
This whole list is, of course, open to discussion - especially since it simply won't happen. TCU fans will wonder why Boise State is included and TCU is not, when Boise State was a Division I-AA school until 1996 - not exactly a 40-year history. It is true that our analysis only takes into account years in which the school competed in the highest division of football, giving Boise State a bit of an advantage. However, Boise State still rates higher than TCU if only the years since 1996 are taken into account. TCU was pretty consistenly dreadful prior to 2000. And it is pretty impressive how quickly Boise State moved from Division I-AA status to a competitive team on the national scale. If we decide on a way to penalize Boise State for being a Division I-AA school and if, as a result of this, they are pushed from the list, the next school in would actually be Michigan State.
Since we are discussing a pair of fictional football conferences that will never actually be created, we might as well go all the way and suggest alignments for the two conferences. Here is what we suggest, given these 32 teams to work with:
Western Conference
North Division
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
BYU Cougars
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
South Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Iowa Hawkeyes
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Eastern Conference
North Division
Boston College Eagles
Michigan Wolverines
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers
South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
The tough schools to place geographically this way are Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. It would have been nice to have been able to place the three of them in the same division, but in order to balance the number of schools in each division, they end up getting split up and each ends up with the worst travel situations among the 32 schools.
Well, that is our "dream" conference alignment - an alignment that we think would give marquis matchups every week of the regular season. Network TV executives take note. We'd even suggest a system whereby the analysis of all of the FBS teams that we have performed be recalculated at the end of each year, giving other teams the opportunity to move up into this pair of superconferences by establishing a strong history of success or dropping teams from the conferences that fall off drastically and lose that winning tradition, thereby ensuring that the most consistently good teams are represented each year in the conference (while allowing teams, because of the nature of the calculation, to have a "rebuilding" year or two without completely risking their place in the upper echelon of the sport).
We'd love to hear your responses and comments. After all, this is no less likely to happen than many of the other crazy ideas we've heard out there - and we think our suggestion makes sense as a starting point - at least in terms of creating the best football. What do you think?
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
1979 Final Rankings
In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. Here are the final rankings from 1979:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) - 1.1
2. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) - 2.9
3. USC Trojans (11-0-1) - 3.0
4. BYU Cougars (11-1) - 4.3
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2) - 4.4
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 5.5
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 8.1
8. Pittsburgh Panthers (11-1) - 8.2
9. Temple Owls (10-2) - 9.2
10. Texas Longhorns (9-3) - 10.1
11. Houston Cougars (11-1) - 11.1
12. Florida State Seminoles (11-1) - 11.5
13. Central Michigan Chippewas (10-0-1) - 12.5
14. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3-1) - 13.4
15. Washington Huskies (9-3) - 15.3
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4) - 16.1
17. Clemson Tigers (8-4) - 17.9
18. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 18.4
19. Texas A&M Aggies (6-5) - 19.8
20. Baylor Bears (8-4) - 20.2
21. LSU Tigers (7-5) - 22.2
22. NC State Wolfpack (7-4) - 22.5
23. Auburn Tigers (8-3) - 24.5
24. Maryland Terrapins (7-4) - 24.8
25. Purdue Boilermakers (10-2) - 25.4
26. ECU Pirates (7-3-1) - 25.8
27. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) - 26.4
28. Tulane Green Wave (9-3) - 28.3
29. Virginia Cavaliers (6-5) - 30.2
30. Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) - 30.6
31. McNeese State Cowboys (11-1) - 31.0
32. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-4) - 32.2
33. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 32.4
34. Utah State Aggies (7-3-1) - 33.3
35. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) - 36.0
36. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 36.5
37. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (9-2) - 37.4
38. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 38.6
39. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (8-3) - 38.9
40. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 39.2
41. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 41.7
42. UCLA Bruins (5-6) - 42.3
43. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 42.9
44. San Diego State Aztecs (8-3) - 44.1
45. Brown Bears (6-3) - 45.2
46. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4) - 46.5
47. Miami University RedHawks (6-5) - 47.0
48. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4) - 48.9
49. Georgia Bulldogs (6-5) - 49.5
50. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-4-1) - 50.2
51. Arizona Wildcats (6-5-1) - 50.7
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-6-1) - 51.5
53. Hawaii Warriors (6-5) - 55.2
54. SMU Mustangs (5-6) - 55.8
55. Lamar Cardinals (6-3-2) - 56.8
56. Stanford Cardinal (5-5-1) - 59.2
57. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (7-4) - 59.3
(tie) Navy Midshipmen (7-4) - 59.3
59. UNLV Rebels (9-1-2) - 59.8
60. Ohio Bobcats (6-5) - 61.9
61. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-6) - 63.0
(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6) - 63.0
63. Boston College Eagles (5-6) - 64.0
64. Utah Utes (6-6) - 64.7
65. Ball State Cardinals (6-5) - 65.1
66. Kentucky Wildcats (5-6) - 65.4
67. Toledo Rockets (7-3-1) - 65.5
68. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6-2) - 66.0
69. Western Michigan Broncos (6-5) - 68.4
70. Michigan State Spartans (5-6) - 68.6
71. Indiana State Sycamores (8-3) - 70.5
72. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4-1) - 71.1
73. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-5) - 71.5
74. Oregon Ducks (6-5) - 72.1
75. Cornell Big Red (5-4) - 72.2
(tie) Miami Hurricanes (5-6) - 72.2
77. San Jose State Spartans (6-4-1) - 75.1
78. Ole Miss Rebels (4-7) - 76.8
79. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 78.0
80. Southern Illinois Salukis (8-3) - 78.2
81. Princeton Tigers (5-4) - 80.4
82. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6-1) - 81.5
83. Dartmouth Big Green (4-4-1) - 84.1
84. New Mexico Lobos (6-6) - 84.2
85. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-8) - 85.5
86. Louisville Cardinals (4-6-1) - 86.4
87. Colorado State Rams (4-7-1) - 86.6
88. Wisconsin Badgers (4-7) - 87.3
89. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-5-1) - 88.8
90. Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-8) - 89.7
91. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-5) - 90.1
92. Citadel Bulldogs (6-5) - 92.0
93. Harvard Crimson (3-6) - 92.7
94. VMI Keydets (6-4-1) - 92.9
95. Holy Cross Crusaders (5-6) - 94.9
96. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-7) - 95.0
97. Furman Paladins (5-6) - 98.0
98. Villanova Wildcats (5-6) - 98.6
99. Colorado Buffaloes (3-8) - 99.4
100. Colgate Raiders (5-4-1) - 101.5
101. Washington State Cougars (3-8) - 101.7
102. Long Beach State 49ers (7-4) - 102.0
103. North Texas Mean Green (5-6) - 102.1
104. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-7) - 103.2
105. Duke Blue Devils (2-8-1) - 105.5
106. Memphis Tigers (5-6) - 105.9
107. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 106.9
108. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (4-7) - 107.3
109. TCU Horned Frogs (2-8-1) - 108.2
110. Iowa State Cyclones (3-8) - 110.1
111. Kansas Jayhawks (3-8) - 110.2
112. Kansas State Wildcats (3-8) - 111.7
113. William & Mary Tribe (4-7) - 111.8
114. Wyoming Cowboys (4-8) - 112.3
115. Drake Bulldogs (3-8) - 114.9
116. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-8-1) - 115.5
117. Connecticut Huskies (3-6-2) - 117.0
118. Cal State Fullerton Titans (3-8) - 117.5
119. Pacific Tigers (3-7) - 119.8
120. Cincinnati Bearcats (2-9) - 120.0
121. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-9) - 120.9
122. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-8) - 123.0
123. Northwestern State Demons (3-6) - 124.1
124. Florida Gators (0-10-1) - 124.3
125. Illinois State Redbirds (3-8) - 125.5
126. Rice Owls (1-10) - 126.1
127. Army Black Knights (2-8-1) - 126.6
128. Air Force Falcons (2-9) - 127.9
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (1-10) - 127.9
130. Oregon State Beavers (1-10) - 131.8
131. New Mexico State Aggies (2-9) - 132.0
132. UTEP Miners (2-9) - 132.1
133. Wichita State Shockers (1-10) - 132.9
134. Vanderbilt Commodores (1-10) - 134.1
135. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-8-1) - 135.5
136. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-10) - 136.9
137. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 137.2
138. Richmond Spiders (0-11) - 139.2
139. Pennsylvania Relays (0-9) - 139.3
140. Columbia Lions (1-8) - 140.0
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) - 1.1
2. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) - 2.9
3. USC Trojans (11-0-1) - 3.0
4. BYU Cougars (11-1) - 4.3
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2) - 4.4
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 5.5
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 8.1
8. Pittsburgh Panthers (11-1) - 8.2
9. Temple Owls (10-2) - 9.2
10. Texas Longhorns (9-3) - 10.1
11. Houston Cougars (11-1) - 11.1
12. Florida State Seminoles (11-1) - 11.5
13. Central Michigan Chippewas (10-0-1) - 12.5
14. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3-1) - 13.4
15. Washington Huskies (9-3) - 15.3
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4) - 16.1
17. Clemson Tigers (8-4) - 17.9
18. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 18.4
19. Texas A&M Aggies (6-5) - 19.8
20. Baylor Bears (8-4) - 20.2
21. LSU Tigers (7-5) - 22.2
22. NC State Wolfpack (7-4) - 22.5
23. Auburn Tigers (8-3) - 24.5
24. Maryland Terrapins (7-4) - 24.8
25. Purdue Boilermakers (10-2) - 25.4
26. ECU Pirates (7-3-1) - 25.8
27. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) - 26.4
28. Tulane Green Wave (9-3) - 28.3
29. Virginia Cavaliers (6-5) - 30.2
30. Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) - 30.6
31. McNeese State Cowboys (11-1) - 31.0
32. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-4) - 32.2
33. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 32.4
34. Utah State Aggies (7-3-1) - 33.3
35. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) - 36.0
36. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 36.5
37. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (9-2) - 37.4
38. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 38.6
39. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (8-3) - 38.9
40. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 39.2
41. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 41.7
42. UCLA Bruins (5-6) - 42.3
43. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 42.9
44. San Diego State Aztecs (8-3) - 44.1
45. Brown Bears (6-3) - 45.2
46. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4) - 46.5
47. Miami University RedHawks (6-5) - 47.0
48. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4) - 48.9
49. Georgia Bulldogs (6-5) - 49.5
50. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-4-1) - 50.2
51. Arizona Wildcats (6-5-1) - 50.7
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-6-1) - 51.5
53. Hawaii Warriors (6-5) - 55.2
54. SMU Mustangs (5-6) - 55.8
55. Lamar Cardinals (6-3-2) - 56.8
56. Stanford Cardinal (5-5-1) - 59.2
57. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (7-4) - 59.3
(tie) Navy Midshipmen (7-4) - 59.3
59. UNLV Rebels (9-1-2) - 59.8
60. Ohio Bobcats (6-5) - 61.9
61. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-6) - 63.0
(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6) - 63.0
63. Boston College Eagles (5-6) - 64.0
64. Utah Utes (6-6) - 64.7
65. Ball State Cardinals (6-5) - 65.1
66. Kentucky Wildcats (5-6) - 65.4
67. Toledo Rockets (7-3-1) - 65.5
68. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6-2) - 66.0
69. Western Michigan Broncos (6-5) - 68.4
70. Michigan State Spartans (5-6) - 68.6
71. Indiana State Sycamores (8-3) - 70.5
72. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4-1) - 71.1
73. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-5) - 71.5
74. Oregon Ducks (6-5) - 72.1
75. Cornell Big Red (5-4) - 72.2
(tie) Miami Hurricanes (5-6) - 72.2
77. San Jose State Spartans (6-4-1) - 75.1
78. Ole Miss Rebels (4-7) - 76.8
79. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 78.0
80. Southern Illinois Salukis (8-3) - 78.2
81. Princeton Tigers (5-4) - 80.4
82. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6-1) - 81.5
83. Dartmouth Big Green (4-4-1) - 84.1
84. New Mexico Lobos (6-6) - 84.2
85. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-8) - 85.5
86. Louisville Cardinals (4-6-1) - 86.4
87. Colorado State Rams (4-7-1) - 86.6
88. Wisconsin Badgers (4-7) - 87.3
89. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-5-1) - 88.8
90. Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-8) - 89.7
91. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-5) - 90.1
92. Citadel Bulldogs (6-5) - 92.0
93. Harvard Crimson (3-6) - 92.7
94. VMI Keydets (6-4-1) - 92.9
95. Holy Cross Crusaders (5-6) - 94.9
96. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-7) - 95.0
97. Furman Paladins (5-6) - 98.0
98. Villanova Wildcats (5-6) - 98.6
99. Colorado Buffaloes (3-8) - 99.4
100. Colgate Raiders (5-4-1) - 101.5
101. Washington State Cougars (3-8) - 101.7
102. Long Beach State 49ers (7-4) - 102.0
103. North Texas Mean Green (5-6) - 102.1
104. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-7) - 103.2
105. Duke Blue Devils (2-8-1) - 105.5
106. Memphis Tigers (5-6) - 105.9
107. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 106.9
108. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (4-7) - 107.3
109. TCU Horned Frogs (2-8-1) - 108.2
110. Iowa State Cyclones (3-8) - 110.1
111. Kansas Jayhawks (3-8) - 110.2
112. Kansas State Wildcats (3-8) - 111.7
113. William & Mary Tribe (4-7) - 111.8
114. Wyoming Cowboys (4-8) - 112.3
115. Drake Bulldogs (3-8) - 114.9
116. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-8-1) - 115.5
117. Connecticut Huskies (3-6-2) - 117.0
118. Cal State Fullerton Titans (3-8) - 117.5
119. Pacific Tigers (3-7) - 119.8
120. Cincinnati Bearcats (2-9) - 120.0
121. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-9) - 120.9
122. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-8) - 123.0
123. Northwestern State Demons (3-6) - 124.1
124. Florida Gators (0-10-1) - 124.3
125. Illinois State Redbirds (3-8) - 125.5
126. Rice Owls (1-10) - 126.1
127. Army Black Knights (2-8-1) - 126.6
128. Air Force Falcons (2-9) - 127.9
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (1-10) - 127.9
130. Oregon State Beavers (1-10) - 131.8
131. New Mexico State Aggies (2-9) - 132.0
132. UTEP Miners (2-9) - 132.1
133. Wichita State Shockers (1-10) - 132.9
134. Vanderbilt Commodores (1-10) - 134.1
135. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-8-1) - 135.5
136. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-10) - 136.9
137. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 137.2
138. Richmond Spiders (0-11) - 139.2
139. Pennsylvania Relays (0-9) - 139.3
140. Columbia Lions (1-8) - 140.0
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/
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