College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 13

Here's the Week 13 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Army Black Knights @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes

Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos

Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Texas Longhorns

Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #15.

First four teams outside the CFP: Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, BYU Cougars, and Clemson Tigers.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 13

 Week 13 was a crazy week. How much did it shake up our rankings? Have a look:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) - 1.0

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) - 2.9

4. Texas Longhorns (10-1) - 4.1

5. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) - 6.0

6. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) - 6.2

7. Boise State Broncos (10-1) - 7.7

8. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) - 8.1

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1) - 9.3

10. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 9.8

11. SMU Mustangs (10-1) - 10.4

12. Army Black Knights (9-1) - 11.4

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) - 13.2

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) - 14.0

15. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 15.6

16. Clemson Tigers (9-2) - 15.8

17. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 17.8

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 18.2

19. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 18.6

20. UNLV Rebels (9-2) - 18.9

21. Kansas State Wildcats (8-3) - 21.8

22. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2) - 21.9

23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) - 22.4

24. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 25.1

25. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) - 26.1

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) - 26.9

27. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6) - 27.6

28. Florida Gators (6-5) - 28.9

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) - 29.5

30. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (9-2) - 29.7

31. Oklahoma Sooners (6-5) - 30.3

32. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) - 30.6

33. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-5) - 33.9

(tie) USC Trojans (6-5) - 33.9

35. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6) - 34.3

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-4) - 36.2

37. Missouri Tigers (8-3) - 36.5

38. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 39.5

39. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-5) - 40.1

40. Syracuse Orange (8-3) - 41.5

41. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 43.3

42. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-4) - 43.5

43. Michigan Wolverines (6-5) - 45.1

44. Duke Blue Devils (8-3) - 46.5

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 46.6

46. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 46.9

47. Baylor Bears (6-4-1) - 47.1

48. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) - 48.5

49. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 49.5

50. TCU Horned Frogs (7-4) - 50.2

51. Bowling Green Falcons (7-4) - 50.4

52. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 51.2

53. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-3) - 51.6

54. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-4-1) - 51.9

55. Ohio Bobcats (8-3) - 52.6

56. Washington State Cougars (8-3) - 57.6

57. UCF Knights (4-7) - 58.2

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 58.3

59. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5) - 59.1

60. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 59.9

61. Georgia Southern Eagles (7-4) - 61.6

62. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 62.2

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-7) - 62.3

64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 63.4

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-5) - 63.7

66. Texas State Bobcats (6-5) - 63.9

67. South Alabama Jaguars (6-5) - 66.1

68. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) - 68.7

69. UCLA Bruins (4-7) - 68.9

70. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-4) - 70.2

71. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 71.2

72. Miami University RedHawks (7-4) - 71.8

73. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-7) - 74.4

74. NC State Wolfpack (5-6) - 75.2

75. Liberty Flames (8-2) - 75.4

76. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-3) - 76.2

77. Virginia Cavaliers (5-6) - 76.4

78. Toledo Rockets (7-4) - 77.8

79. ECU Pirates (7-4) - 78.2

80. Connecticut Huskies (7-4) - 78.5

81. Michigan State Spartans (5-6) - 78.6

82. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-3) - 79.4

83. Utah Utes (4-7) - 81.6

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-5) - 83.7

85. South Florida Bulls (6-5) - 85.3

86. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5) - 86.6

87. Colorado State Rams (7-4) - 87.6

88. Maryland Terrapins (4-7) - 89.6

89. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-7) - 90.4

90. San Jose State Spartans (6-5) - 90.6

91. UTSA Roadrunners (6-5) - 91.0

92. Houston Cougars (4-7) - 91.3

93. Buffalo Bulls (7-4) - 92.1

94. North Texas Mean Green (5-6) - 92.7

(tie) Stanford Cardinal (3-8) - 92.7

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-7) - 95.1

97. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-6) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-7) - 97.4

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 98.8

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-6) - 99.6

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 99.9

102. Oregon State Beavers (5-6) - 101.8

103. Western Michigan Broncos (5-6) - 102.9

104. Georgia State Panthers (3-8) - 104.6

105. Florida State Seminoles (2-9) - 105.0

106. Troy Trojans (3-8) - 105.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 108.3

108. Charlotte 49ers (4-7) - 108.6

109. UAB Blazers (3-8) - 108.7

110. Rice Owls (3-8) - 110.0

111. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-6) - 110.1

112. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) - 111.3

113. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 113.7

114. Ball State Cardinals (3-8) - 114.1

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-7) - 114.9

116. Air Force Falcons (4-7) - 116.1

117. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9) - 116.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-7) - 119.1

119. Akron Zips (3-8) - 119.6

120. Temple Owls (3-8) - 120.2

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.6

122. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-9) - 122.1

123. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 123.2

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-8) - 123.5

125. FIU Golden Panthers (3-8) - 124.5

126. Purdue Boilermakers (1-10) - 125.9

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-9) - 126.9

128. Wyoming Cowboys (2-9) - 127.6

129. New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) - 127.7

130. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-8) - 130.6

131. Kennesaw State Owls (2-9) - 130.7

132. UTEP Miners (2-9) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-10) - 131.9

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-11) - 134.9

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 12

Here's the Week 12 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Miami Hurricanes @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 #11 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #6 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 3 #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game 4 #9 Georgia Bulldogs @ #8 Texas Longhorns

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Ole Miss Rebels

Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos

Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights

Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 12

How did BYU's loss to #54 Kansas affect their standing in the rankings this week? What about Oregon's too-close victory over #66 Wisconsin? Here are the results:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) - 1.5

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 3.0

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) - 4.9

5. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 5.6

6. Boise State Broncos (9-1) - 6.7

7. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 7.6

8. Texas Longhorns (9-1) - 7.7

9. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) - 8.3

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) - 8.4

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) - 10.8

12. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.0

13. SMU Mustangs (9-1) - 12.5

14. BYU Cougars (9-1) - 13.9

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) - 15.1

16. Clemson Tigers (8-2) - 16.6

17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) - 18.3

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 19.0

19. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) - 19.1

20. UNLV Rebels (8-2) - 19.7

21. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) - 20.5

(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) - 20.5

23. Louisville Cardinals (6-4) - 24.1

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 24.6

25. Kansas State Wildcats (7-3) - 25.4

26. LSU Tigers (6-4) - 25.7

27. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 27.9

28. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 28.4

29. James Madison Dukes (8-2) - 31.0

30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-3) - 31.1

31. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) - 31.3

32. USC Trojans (5-5) - 32.7

33. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-2) - 33.0

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-5) - 35.2

35. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 37.0

36. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 37.2

37. Florida Gators (5-5) - 37.3

38. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 37.6

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

40. Kansas Jayhawks (4-6) - 41.7

41. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 42.4

42. Missouri Tigers (7-3) - 43.3

43. Washington State Cougars (8-2) - 43.4

44. Syracuse Orange (7-3) - 45.0

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 45.3

46. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-5) - 47.1

47. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-3) - 47.7

48. Texas State Bobcats (6-4) - 48.2

49. UCF Knights (4-6) - 49.8

50. Baylor Bears (5-4-1) - 50.1

51. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 50.6

52. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 52.1

53. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 52.3

54. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 53.1

55. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) - 55.7

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4-1) - 55.9

57. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4) - 56.0

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) - 58.6

59. Wisconsin Badgers (5-5) - 59.0

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-4) - 59.9

61. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3) - 60.5

62. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 61.2

63. Boston College Eagles (5-5) - 61.3

64. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) - 64.2

65. Toledo Rockets (7-3) - 64.6

66. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-2) - 65.5

67. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 65.6

68. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 66.2

69. Ohio Bobcats (7-3) - 69.1

(tie) UCLA Bruins (4-6) - 69.1

71. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-4) - 69.7

72. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) - 71.0

73. Auburn Tigers (4-6) - 73.1

74. South Alabama Jaguars (5-5) - 73.4

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-6) - 73.6

76. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 76.0

77. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 76.4

78. Miami University RedHawks (6-4) - 78.2

79. Michigan State Spartans (4-6) - 78.8

80. Maryland Terrapins (4-6) - 80.9

81. Colorado State Rams (7-3) - 81.7

82. Utah Utes (4-6) - 82.4

83. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) - 83.4

84. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (7-3) - 83.9

(tie) Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) - 83.9

86. North Texas Mean Green (5-5) - 85.0

87. Arizona Wildcats (4-6) - 87.9

88. Houston Cougars (4-6) - 88.3

89. San Jose State Spartans (6-4) - 88.8

90. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-5) - 89.1

91. ECU Pirates (6-4) - 89.5

92. UTSA Roadrunners (5-5) - 91.3

93. South Florida Bulls (5-5) - 92.6

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 93.8

95. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-5) - 95.0

96. Stanford Cardinal (3-7) - 95.8

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-4) - 96.6

(tie) Liberty Flames (7-2) - 96.6

99. Western Michigan Broncos (5-5) - 97.5

100. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 99.8

101. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 100.4

102. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) - 101.6

103. Troy Trojans (3-7) - 102.4

104. Rice Owls (3-7) - 104.4

105. Oregon State Beavers (4-6) - 106.2

106. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-5) - 107.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 107.4

108. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 108.0

109. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 108.3

110. Ball State Cardinals (3-7) - 110.2

111. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-6) - 110.7

112. Charlotte 49ers (3-7) - 111.8

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 112.4

114. Georgia State Panthers (2-8) - 113.1

115. Temple Owls (3-7) - 116.5

116. UAB Blazers (2-8) - 116.9

117. Utah State Aggies (3-7) - 118.4

118. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-8) - 118.7

119. Air Force Falcons (3-7) - 120.2

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-7) - 121.1

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.3

122. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) - 121.4

123. FIU Golden Panthers (3-7) - 121.6

124. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-7) - 121.9

125. Akron Zips (2-8) - 122.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-8) - 126.2

127. Purdue Boilermakers (1-9) - 126.8

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 128.1

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-8) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-8) - 130.1

131. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.6

132. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-9) - 131.4

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-9) - 132.4

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-10) - 134.9

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 11

Here's the Week 11 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point)

Game 1 #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 2 #11 Georgia Bulldogs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeys

Game 3 #10 BYU Cougars @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 Alabama Crimson Tide

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Boise State Broncos

Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels

Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights

Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

________________________________________________

Special Feature: One of the advantages of our analysis system is that we can project the impact of opportunities of in the future schedule of teams - taking into account ALL games, so the future schedule of teams you have already played also impacts this ranking. Using this tool, we project the teams with the best opportunities to improve their seeding and how that could change their ranking. Of course, they still have to actually win their games. But using that tool, here is the Top 25. Team records show current wins, losses and games remaining. Conference championship games are not included, since those matchups have not yet been determined.

1. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0-2) - 1.3

2. Oregon Ducks (10-0-2) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1-3) - 3.3

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1-3) - 4.7

5. Army Black Knights (9-0-3) - 5.8

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2-2) - 6.2

7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1-2) - 7.1

8. BYU Cougars (9-0-3) - 7.8

9. Texas Longhorns (8-1-3) - 8.0

10. SMU Mustangs (8-1-3) - 10.4

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2-3) - 10.5

12. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2-3) - 11.8

13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1-3) - 13.0

14. Boise State Broncos (8-1-3) - 13.6

15. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2-3) - 17.2

16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3-3) - 17.3

17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1-3) - 18.5

18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3-3) - 18.8

19. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2-3) - 21.3

20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4-2) - 21.5

21. Clemson Tigers (7-2-3) - 21.6

22. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2-3) - 22.6

23. Tulane Green Wave (8-2-2) - 22.8

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5-2) - 23.2

25. Navy Midshipmen (7-2-3) - 23.5

As this plays out, it sets up the potential CFP like this:

Game 1 #12 Georgia Bulldogs @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 #11 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game 3 #10 SMU Mustangs @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 BYU Cougars

Game 5 Game 1 winner vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes

Game 6 Game 2 winner vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels

Game 7 Game 3 winner vs. #2 Army Black Knights

Game 8 Game 4 winner vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers

_________________________________________

Discussion: Teams that moved up in the rankings have one of the more difficult schedules ahead of them. Teams that moved down in the rankings have one of the easier schedules ahead of them. This can be taken as it is applied, that winning a difficult game moves you up in the rankings more. Or it can mean that you are more likely to lose than a team with an easy schedule.

Remember what really matters in this system is how you perform against the schedule given to you. If you play an easy team, you should win by a lot. If you play a hard team, you can barely win and the benefit should be similar. Losing to a hard team doesn't cost you as much as losing to a team you should beat by a lot. Also, as the season goes on, there is more and more evidence that the teams you have already played are difficult or easy, and so the difficulty of your previous schedule also impacts this projection. So when BYU moves up from #10 to #8, Texas stays and #9 and Alabama drops from #8 to #11, it means that there is more "as yet unrealized potential" in BYU's schedule to positively impact their ranking than in Texas or Alabama's schedules. (This is the beauty of analyzing a team, their schedule, and their opponent's schedules, based on actual game score and independent of the names on the helmet or the conference they belong to.) And before you doubt the accuracy of this, remember that Alabama is playing FCS team Mercer at home this week, part of the SEC's tradition of having many teams play a nobody late in the schedule to give them essentially an extra bye week, since unlike the other power conferences, they only play 8 conference games.

Another interesting feature of this is that having fewer games remaining on your schedule benefits you in this analysis. This reflects that there is less uncertainty in your remaining schedule, because just like you could win a game, you might also lose it. This, in part, explains Miami's jump up from #13 to #7 in this analysis. Take all of that into consideration when looking at this ranking.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 11

Indiana played a relatively close game against a mediocre Michigan team. As a result, they dropped from #1 to #2 in the rankings. That's what happens when you have a weak schedule and you play a closer game than you ought to. Here are the complete results of our rankings after 11 weeks of the 2024 season:

1. Oregon Ducks (10-0) - 1.3

2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 2.7

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) - 2.8

4. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 4.1

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) - 5.8

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 6.3

7. Boise State Broncos (8-1) - 6.9

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) - 7.8

9. Texas Longhorns (8-1) - 8.8

10. BYU Cougars (9-0) - 9.6

11. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) - 11.0

12. SMU Mustangs (8-1) - 12.3

13. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.5

14. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) - 13.1

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) - 15.5

16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) - 16.3

17. Clemson Tigers (7-2) - 17.4

18. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) - 18.1

19. UNLV Rebels (7-2) - 21.3

20. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) - 21.6

21. LSU Tigers (6-3) - 21.7

(tie) Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) - 21.7

23. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) - 24.8

(tie) Tulane Green Wave (8-2) - 24.8

(tie) Washington State Cougars (8-1) - 24.8

26. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-1) - 27.0

27. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2) - 27.1

28. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 27.4

29. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2) - 28.7

30. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 29.1

31. Navy Midshipmen (7-2) - 29.6

32. James Madison Dukes (7-2) - 30.0

33. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) - 30.4

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) - 34.8

35. USC Trojans (4-5) - 35.9

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 36.1

37. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) - 36.6

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

39. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4) - 40.3

40. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 40.5

41. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 42.6

(tie) Missouri Tigers (7-2) - 42.6

43. Washington Huskies (5-5) - 45.3

44. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 46.7

45. Florida Gators (4-5) - 46.9

46. Texas State Bobcats (5-4) - 48.7

47. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4) - 50.4

48. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-3) - 50.5

49. Boston College Eagles (5-4) - 50.8

50. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 51.6

51. UCF Knights (4-6) - 51.9

52. Baylor Bears (5-4) - 53.0

53. Memphis Tigers (8-2) - 54.0

54. Kansas Jayhawks (3-6) - 54.2

55. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 54.8

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) - 55.1

57. California Golden Bears (5-4) - 55.9

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) - 56.5

59. UCLA Bruins (4-5) - 57.1

60. Sam Houston Bearkats (7-2) - 58.0

61. Syracuse Orange (6-3) - 58.8

62. Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) - 61.4

63. Bowling Green Falcons (5-4) - 62.4

64. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 62.8

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-4) - 63.2

66. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) - 63.8

67. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-4) - 66.6

68. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3) - 68.0

69. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 68.1

70. North Texas Mean Green (5-4) - 69.8

71. Michigan State Spartans (4-5) - 70.3

72. Toledo Rockets (6-3) - 72.1

73. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6) - 72.3

74. Maryland Terrapins (4-5) - 73.7

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-5) - 74.1

76. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 74.2

77. Houston Cougars (4-5) - 77.3

78. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 79.3

79. Utah Utes (4-5) - 80.7

80. Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) - 82.2

81. San Jose State Spartans (6-3) - 82.3

82. South Alabama Jaguars (4-5) - 82.5

83. Ohio Bobcats (6-3) - 82.6

84. Miami University RedHawks (5-4) - 83.1

85. Colorado State Rams (6-3) - 84.0

86. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5) - 84.4

87. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-3) - 84.5

88. Auburn Tigers (3-6) - 85.0

89. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-4) - 86.6

90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-4) - 88.3

91. ECU Pirates (5-4) - 89.3

92. Liberty Flames (6-2) - 92.5

93. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 93.3

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 94.9

95. Oregon State Beavers (4-5) - 95.5

96. Hawaii Warriors (4-6) - 95.7

97. Buffalo Bulls (5-4) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (3-6) - 99.1

99. South Florida Bulls (4-5) - 99.2

100. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 99.5

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 100.5

102. Rice Owls (3-7) - 102.7

103. UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) - 103.9

104. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4) - 104.8

105. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) - 105.0

106. Charlotte 49ers (3-6) - 105.7

107. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 107.3

108. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 107.4

109. Stanford Cardinal (2-7) - 107.8

110. Troy Trojans (2-7) - 109.5

111. Ball State Cardinals (3-6) - 110.2

112. Georgia State Panthers (2-7) - 111.5

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 113.1

114. UAB Blazers (2-7) - 113.3

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-6) - 115.9

116. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-7) - 117.0

117. Temple Owls (2-7) - 117.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6) - 118.5

119. Akron Zips (2-7) - 119.7

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-6) - 119.8

121. FIU Golden Panthers (3-6) - 121.3

(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6) - 121.3

123. Purdue Boilermakers (1-8) - 123.2

124. Air Force Falcons (2-7) - 124.0

125. New Mexico Lobos (4-6) - 124.4

126. Utah State Aggies (2-7) - 125.3

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-7) - 126.7

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 127.9

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-7) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-7) - 129.8

131. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-8) - 130.5

132. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.7

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-8) - 133.0

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-9) - 134.9

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 10

Tomorrow, the CFP Committee will come out with their first rankings of the 2024 season. Their stated purpose is to rank the teams based on who is "best" including such qualities as the "eye test." They specifically are not trying to rank teams based on who is "most deserving." Which sounds to us like an excuse for ranking teams higher based on which conference they belong to, whether they actually deserve to be in the playoff or not.

Regardless, our ranking system analyzes the resume of each team - essentially evaluating each team on whether they are "most deserving" to be in the playoff or not. That is a different metric than the CFP Committee's evaluation. We feel it is better in terms of fair competition. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. We are sure others will disagree with our ratings. And that's what's really fun. We have a lot of actual game data to support our opinions, (not just broad generalities like "my team plays in the most difficult conference in America") but we'd love to hear you support yours as well.

If the Baggaley Football Rankings were used to seed teams (highest ranked team from each conference is considered the "conference champion" until there actually is one), here is how the seedings would have turned out based on rankings after 10 weeks in this inaugural season of the 12-team playoff:

Round 1

Game 1 - #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 - #11 Texas Longhorns @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game 3 - #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 4 - #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #8 BYU Cougars

Quarterfinals

Game 5 - #4 Boise State (MWC Champion) vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6 - #3 Army Black Knights (AAC Champion) vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 - #2 Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion) vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 - #1 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Champion) vs. Game 4 winner

(Game 5 winner plays Game 8 winner and Game 6 winner plays Game 7 winner in the semi-finals with the winner of those two games meetings in the finals.)

Conference representation: Big Ten - 3 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, Big 12 - 1 team, Independent - 1 team, AAC (Group of 5) - 1 team, MWC (Group of 5) - 1 team.

Just outside the cut: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC), Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten), Louisville Cardinals (ACC), Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12).