Tomorrow, the CFP Committee will come out with their first rankings of the 2024 season. Their stated purpose is to rank the teams based on who is "best" including such qualities as the "eye test." They specifically are not trying to rank teams based on who is "most deserving." Which sounds to us like an excuse for ranking teams higher based on which conference they belong to, whether they actually deserve to be in the playoff or not.
Regardless, our ranking system analyzes the resume of each team - essentially evaluating each team on whether they are "most deserving" to be in the playoff or not. That is a different metric than the CFP Committee's evaluation. We feel it is better in terms of fair competition. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. We are sure others will disagree with our ratings. And that's what's really fun. We have a lot of actual game data to support our opinions, (not just broad generalities like "my team plays in the most difficult conference in America") but we'd love to hear you support yours as well.
If the Baggaley Football Rankings were used to seed teams (highest ranked team from each conference is considered the "conference champion" until there actually is one), here is how the seedings would have turned out based on rankings after 10 weeks in this inaugural season of the 12-team playoff:
Round 1
Game 1 - #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 - #11 Texas Longhorns @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 - #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 4 - #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #8 BYU Cougars
Quarterfinals
Game 5 - #4 Boise State (MWC Champion) vs. Game 1 winner
Game 6 - #3 Army Black Knights (AAC Champion) vs. Game 2 winner
Game 7 - #2 Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion) vs. Game 3 winner
Game 8 - #1 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Champion) vs. Game 4 winner
(Game 5 winner plays Game 8 winner and Game 6 winner plays Game 7 winner in the semi-finals with the winner of those two games meetings in the finals.)
Conference representation: Big Ten - 3 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, Big 12 - 1 team, Independent - 1 team, AAC (Group of 5) - 1 team, MWC (Group of 5) - 1 team.
Just outside the cut: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC), Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten), Louisville Cardinals (ACC), Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12).
Here are the current rankings after 10 weeks based on our analysis. There is a lot of football to be played, however. Things can change. Indiana has not really played any difficult teams so far, but they've beaten everyone they've played pretty handily, which explains their ranking in our analysis. That might change, because they play at Ohio State in two weeks. By the way, at least at the top of the conference, it is looking like the SEC is overrated this year.
1. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0) - 1.0
2. Oregon Ducks (9-0) - 2.5
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) - 3.7
4. Miami Hurricanes (9-0) - 4.2
5. Army Black Knights (8-0) - 5.8
6. Boise State Broncos (7-1) - 5.9
7. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) - 6.8
8. BYU Cougars (8-0) - 7.5
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) - 9.0
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) - 10.4
11. Texas Longhorns (7-1) - 10.8
12. SMU Mustangs (8-1) - 11.4
13. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) - 12.0
14. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) - 15.0
15. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) - 15.1
16. Iowa State Cyclones (7-1) - 16.3
17. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1) - 18.3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3) - 18.6
19. Clemson Tigers (6-2) - 19.0
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) - 20.6
(tie) LSU Tigers (6-2) - 20.6
22. UNLV Rebels (6-2) - 22.4
23. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) - 22.6
24. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) - 24.0
25. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-4) - 25.1
26. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) - 26.4
27. Washington State Cougars (7-1) - 26.9
28. Tulane Green Wave (7-2) - 27.3
29. Colorado Buffaloes (6-2) - 30.2
30. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-2) - 30.4
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3) - 31.3
32. James Madison Dukes (6-2) - 32.2
33. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-3) - 33.0
34. USC Trojans (4-5) - 33.4
35. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7-1) - 35.0
36. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3) - 35.4
37. Florida Gators (4-4) - 37.4
38. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) - 38.4
39. Navy Midshipmen (6-2) - 38.8
40. Washington Huskies (5-4) - 39.3
41. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) - 39.5
42. UCF Knights (4-5) - 44.1
43. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 44.3
44. Missouri Tigers (6-2) - 47.5
45. Oklahoma Sooners (5-4) - 47.7
46. Syracuse Orange (6-2) - 48.0
47. Baylor Bears (5-4) - 48.2
48. Memphis Tigers (7-2) - 48.6
49. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-3) - 50.7
50. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4) - 50.8
51. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) - 52.2
52. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3) - 52.6
53. California Golden Bears (4-4) - 52.7
54. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-4) - 53.5
(tie) Michigan Wolverines (5-4) - 53.5
56. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) - 55.3
57. Duke Blue Devils (6-3) - 56.4
58. Sam Houston Bearkats (7-2) - 56.8
59. Texas State Bobcats (4-4) - 58.2
60. Boston College Eagles (4-4) - 60.0
61. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3) - 63.8
62. Michigan State Spartans (4-5) - 64.0
63. North Texas Mean Green (5-3) - 64.2
64. Bowling Green Falcons (4-4) - 64.6
65. Maryland Terrapins (4-4) - 66.3
66. TCU Horned Frogs (5-4) - 67.1
67. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-4) - 67.2
68. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-4) - 69.1
69. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4) - 69.8
70. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6) - 70.4
71. UCLA Bruins (3-5) - 70.6
72. Virginia Cavaliers (4-4) - 71.4
73. NC State Wolfpack (5-4) - 72.5
74. Connecticut Huskies (6-3) - 72.9
75. Toledo Rockets (6-3) - 73.4
76. Kansas Jayhawks (2-6) - 74.1
77. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-3) - 76.6
78. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-5) - 77.3
79. South Alabama Jaguars (4-5) - 79.3
80. Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) - 79.5
81. Houston Cougars (4-5) - 80.1
82. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (5-3) - 82.0
83. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-4) - 82.3
84. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-4) - 83.0
85. Miami University RedHawks (4-4) - 83.4
86. Utah Utes (4-4) - 84.1
87. Auburn Tigers (3-6) - 85.3
88. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3) - 86.6
89. Colorado State Rams (6-3) - 86.7
90. Ohio Bobcats (5-3) - 87.2
91. Oregon State Beavers (4-4) - 90.5
92. South Florida Bulls (4-4) - 90.7
93. San Jose State Spartans (5-3) - 92.7
94. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (4-4) - 93.2
95. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-4) - 96.2
96. Hawaii Warriors (4-5) - 96.7
97. ECU Pirates (4-4) - 96.9
98. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-6) - 97.0
99. Buffalo Bulls (5-4) - 99.0
100. Liberty Flames (5-2) - 100.5
101. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-3) - 100.7
102. Arizona Wildcats (3-6) - 101.3
103. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4) - 104.3
104. UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) - 104.5
105. Rice Owls (3-6) - 104.7
106. Florida State Seminoles (1-8) - 107.0
107. Stanford Cardinal (2-7) - 107.4
108. Charlotte 49ers (3-6) - 108.0
109. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-7) - 108.2
110. Troy Trojans (2-7) - 109.6
111. Ball State Cardinals (3-5) - 110.1
112. Georgia State Panthers (2-6) - 111.1
113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-7) - 112.9
114. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5) - 113.9
115. UAB Blazers (2-6) - 114.3
116. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-6) - 115.3
117. Temple Owls (2-6) - 118.1
118. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5) - 118.6
119. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5) - 118.9
120. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6) - 120.9
121. Purdue Boilermakers (1-7) - 121.5
122. Akron Zips (2-7) - 121.6
123. FIU Golden Panthers (3-6) - 122.0
124. Utah State Aggies (2-6) - 124.2
125. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-6) - 125.1
126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-7) - 126.1
127. New Mexico Lobos (3-6) - 127.8
128. Wyoming Cowboys (2-7) - 128.3
129. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-7) - 128.4
130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-6) - 129.2
131. Air Force Falcons (1-7) - 130.5
132. UTEP Miners (1-8) - 130.7
133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-7) - 132.9
134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-8) - 134.8
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