If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...
(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point)
Game 1 #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 2 #11 Georgia Bulldogs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeys
Game 3 #10 BYU Cougars @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 Alabama Crimson Tide
Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Boise State Broncos
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks
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Special Feature: One of the advantages of our analysis system is that we can project the impact of opportunities of in the future schedule of teams - taking into account ALL games, so the future schedule of teams you have already played also impacts this ranking. Using this tool, we project the teams with the best opportunities to improve their seeding and how that could change their ranking. Of course, they still have to actually win their games. But using that tool, here is the Top 25. Team records show current wins, losses and games remaining. Conference championship games are not included, since those matchups have not yet been determined.
1. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0-2) - 1.3
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0-2) - 1.8
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1-3) - 3.3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1-3) - 4.7
5. Army Black Knights (9-0-3) - 5.8
6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2-2) - 6.2
7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1-2) - 7.1
8. BYU Cougars (9-0-3) - 7.8
9. Texas Longhorns (8-1-3) - 8.0
10. SMU Mustangs (8-1-3) - 10.4
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2-3) - 10.5
12. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2-3) - 11.8
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1-3) - 13.0
14. Boise State Broncos (8-1-3) - 13.6
15. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2-3) - 17.2
16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3-3) - 17.3
17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1-3) - 18.5
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3-3) - 18.8
19. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2-3) - 21.3
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4-2) - 21.5
21. Clemson Tigers (7-2-3) - 21.6
22. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2-3) - 22.6
23. Tulane Green Wave (8-2-2) - 22.8
24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5-2) - 23.2
25. Navy Midshipmen (7-2-3) - 23.5
As this plays out, it sets up the potential CFP like this:
Game 1 #12 Georgia Bulldogs @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 SMU Mustangs @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 BYU Cougars
Game 5 Game 1 winner vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes
Game 6 Game 2 winner vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Game 3 winner vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Game 4 winner vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers
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Discussion: Teams that moved up in the rankings have one of the more difficult schedules ahead of them. Teams that moved down in the rankings have one of the easier schedules ahead of them. This can be taken as it is applied, that winning a difficult game moves you up in the rankings more. Or it can mean that you are more likely to lose than a team with an easy schedule.
Remember what really matters in this system is how you perform against the schedule given to you. If you play an easy team, you should win by a lot. If you play a hard team, you can barely win and the benefit should be similar. Losing to a hard team doesn't cost you as much as losing to a team you should beat by a lot. Also, as the season goes on, there is more and more evidence that the teams you have already played are difficult or easy, and so the difficulty of your previous schedule also impacts this projection. So when BYU moves up from #10 to #8, Texas stays and #9 and Alabama drops from #8 to #11, it means that there is more "as yet unrealized potential" in BYU's schedule to positively impact their ranking than in Texas or Alabama's schedules. (This is the beauty of analyzing a team, their schedule, and their opponent's schedules, based on actual game score and independent of the names on the helmet or the conference they belong to.) And before you doubt the accuracy of this, remember that Alabama is playing FCS team Mercer at home this week, part of the SEC's tradition of having many teams play a nobody late in the schedule to give them essentially an extra bye week, since unlike the other power conferences, they only play 8 conference games.
Another interesting feature of this is that having fewer games remaining on your schedule benefits you in this analysis. This reflects that there is less uncertainty in your remaining schedule, because just like you could win a game, you might also lose it. This, in part, explains Miami's jump up from #13 to #7 in this analysis. Take all of that into consideration when looking at this ranking.
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