We continue our historical rankings project with 1966. 1966 was famous for "The Tie" - a "game of the century" between #1 ranked Notre Dame and #2 ranked Michigan State on November 12th that ended in a tie. In the final polls, Notre Dame was ranked 1st and Michigan State was 2nd. But since the teams tied in their only head-to-head contest (a game played in East Lansing), which team actually had the better season? And what about undefeated, untied Alabama that started the season ranked #1 in the preseason polls? To resolve that question, here are the final rankings from our analysis of the 1966 college football season:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0-1) - 1.1
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) - 1.9
3. Michigan State Spartans (9-0-1) - 3.0
4. Wyoming Cowboys (10-1) - 4.0
5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) - 6.2
(tie) Harvard Crimson (8-1) - 6.2
7. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 6.9
8. Tennessee Volunteers (8-3) - 7.8
9. Purdue Boilermakers (9-2) - 9.4
10. UCLA Bruins (9-1) - 11.2
11. Florida Gators (9-2) - 12.0
(tie) Houston Cougars (8-2) - 12.0
13. Miami University RedHawks (9-1) - 12.6
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) - 13.1
15. USC Trojans (7-4) - 14.6
16. Miami Hurricanes (8-2-1) - 16.2
17. Dartmouth Big Green (7-2) - 16.8
18. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-2) - 18.5
19. BYU Cougars (8-2) - 20.3
20. Texas Longhorns (7-4) - 21.1
21. North Texas Mean Green (8-2) - 21.5
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) - 22.6
23. Colgate Raiders (8-1-1) - 22.8
(tie) Syracuse Orange (8-3) - 22.8
25. Florida State Seminoles (6-5) - 25.4
26. SMU Mustangs (8-3) - 26.1
27. New Mexico State Aggies (7-3) - 26.7
28. Princeton Tigers (7-2) - 28.1
29. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (7-3) - 29.4
30. Colorado Buffaloes (7-3) - 30.1
31. Oklahoma Sooners (6-4) - 30.5
32. UTEP Miners (6-4) - 31.2
33. Colorado State Rams (7-3) - 32.4
34. Army Black Knights (8-2) - 34.0
35. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-2-1) - 35.3
36. Baylor Bears (5-5) - 36.2
(tie) Memphis Tigers (7-2) - 36.2
38. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-4) - 37.3
39. Cornell Big Red (6-3) - 39.3
40. Bowling Green Falcons (6-3) - 40.3
41. Washington Huskies (6-4) - 41.0
42. Michigan Wolverines (6-4) - 41.2
43. Missouri Tigers (6-3-1) - 43.8
44. Dayton Flyers (8-2) - 45.0
45. LSU Tigers (5-4-1) - 45.2
46. Oregon State Beavers (7-3) - 46.9
47. Clemson Tigers (6-4) - 48.3
48. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-5) - 49.0
49. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-4) - 50.6
50. Texas A&M Aggies (4-5-1) - 50.7
51. Navy Midshipmen (4-6) - 53.2
52. Tulane Green Wave (5-4-1) - 53.3
53. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-6) - 53.5
54. Duke Blue Devils (5-5) - 53.6
55. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-5) - 55.3
56. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 55.9
57. Utah Utes (5-5) - 57.3
58. Holy Cross Crusaders (6-3-1) - 57.6
59. Ohio Bobcats (5-5) - 58.9
60. Stanford Cardinal (5-5) - 59.1
61. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-5-1) - 59.3
62. Air Force Falcons (4-6) - 61.3
63. Louisville Cardinals (6-4) - 61.6
64. Yale Bulldogs (4-5) - 64.5
65. Buffalo Bulls (5-5) - 64.7
66. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-6) - 65.2
67. Western Michigan Broncos (7-3) - 66.7
68. Auburn Tigers (4-6) - 67.1
69. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-6) - 69.3
70. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5-1) - 71.8
71. Maryland Terrapins (4-6) - 72.6
(tie) William & Mary Tribe (5-4-1) - 72.6
73. Rice Owls (2-8) - 73.1
74. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-4) - 74.1
75. Virginia Cavaliers (4-6) - 75.0
76. Oregon Ducks (3-7) - 76.6
77. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6-1) - 77.4
78. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 78.4
79. Utah State Aggies (4-6) - 78.5
80. Villanova Wildcats (6-3) - 79.6
81. Northwestern Wildcats (3-6-1) - 81.2
82. Toledo Rockets (2-7-1) - 81.9
83. Tampa Spartans (4-5) - 82.0
84. Xavier Musketeers (4-6) - 83.2
85. Cincinnati Bearcats (3-7) - 84.5
86. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-5-2) - 86.3
87. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-5) - 86.6
88. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-7) - 87.6
89. Boston College Eagles (4-6) - 88.2
90. Washington State Cougars (3-7) - 89.2
91. TCU Horned Frogs (2-8) - 90.0
92. Idaho Vandals (4-6) - 90.8
93. Iowa State Cyclones (2-6-2) - 93.5
94. California Golden Bears (3-7) - 93.8
95. Wisconsin Badgers (3-6-1) - 94.0
96. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-8) - 94.5
97. Arizona Wildcats (3-7) - 97.4
98. George Washington Colonials (4-6) - 97.8
(tie) San Jose State Spartans (3-7) - 97.8
100. Indiana Hoosiers (1-8-1) - 100.5
101. ECU Pirates (4-5-1) - 101.4
102. Kansas Jayhawks (2-7-1) - 101.6
103. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-9) - 103.5
104. Vanderbilt Commodores (1-9) - 103.6
105. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 107.2
106. Pennsylvania Relays (2-7) - 107.3
107. Davidson Wildcats (4-5) - 107.5
108. Pacific Tigers (4-7) - 108.9
109. Wichita State Shockers (2-8) - 109.8
110. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-8) - 110.1
111. VMI Keydets (2-8) - 111.8
112. New Mexico Lobos (2-8) - 113.1
113. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-8) - 113.7
114. Citadel Bulldogs (4-6) - 114.2
115. Brown Bears (1-8) - 115.0
116. Furman Paladins (2-7-1) - 116.7
117. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-9) - 117.9
118. Richmond Spiders (2-8) - 119.0
119. Kansas State Wildcats (0-9-1) - 119.5
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
1967 College Football Final Rankings
Here are our final rankings from the 1967 season:
1. USC Trojans (10-1) - 1.5
2. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) - 2.0
3. Wyoming Cowboys (10-1) - 2.7
4. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 4.9
5. NC State Wolfpack (9-2) - 5.6
6. UTEP Miners (7-2-1) - 6.0
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) - 7.6
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2-1) - 9.6
9. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 10.2
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2-1) - 10.3
11. LSU Tigers (7-3-1) - 11.6
12. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 11.8
(tie) Toledo Rockets (9-1) - 11.8
14. UCLA Bruins (7-2-1) - 13.9
15. Houston Cougars (7-3) - 14.2
16. Florida State Seminoles (7-2-2) - 16.4
(tie) Georgia Bulldogs (7-4) - 16.4
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 17.4
19. North Texas Mean Green (7-1-1) - 18.3
20. Oregon State Beavers (7-2-1) - 19.4
21. Colorado Buffaloes (9-2) - 21.1
22. Auburn Tigers (6-4) - 23.7
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (6-4-1) - 23.7
24. Syracuse Orange (8-2) - 24.7
25. Memphis Tigers (6-3) - 24.9
26. Miami Hurricanes (7-4) - 25.9
27. Dartmouth Big Green (7-2) - 26.0
28. Texas A&M Aggies (7-4) - 29.2
29. Texas Longhorns (6-4) - 29.4
30. Missouri Tigers (7-3) - 31.6
31. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-3) - 32.0
32. Utah State Aggies (7-2-1) - 33.1
33. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-2) - 33.2
34. Cornell Big Red (6-2-1) - 33.8
35. Ohio Bobcats (5-5) - 35.8
36. ECU Pirates (8-2) - 36.1
37. Clemson Tigers (6-4) - 37.2
38. Army Black Knights (8-2) - 39.1
39. New Mexico State Aggies (7-2-1) - 39.3
40. BYU Cougars (6-4) - 39.9
41. Harvard Crimson (6-3) - 40.7
42. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-3) - 41.7
43. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-4) - 41.8
44. Florida Gators (6-4) - 42.4
45. Indiana Hoosiers (9-2) - 42.6
46. Princeton Tigers (6-3) - 46.1
47. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4-1) - 46.8
48. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3) - 48.9
49. Kansas Jayhawks (5-5) - 49.0
50. Miami University RedHawks (6-4) - 49.2
51. VMI Keydets (6-4) - 51.1
52. Louisville Cardinals (5-5) - 52.7
53. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (8-3) - 52.8
54. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5-1) - 53.2
55. Dayton Flyers (6-3-1) - 57.4
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 57.4
57. Washington Huskies (5-5) - 57.6
58. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-5) - 58.0
59. Colorado State Rams (4-5-1) - 58.8
60. Stanford Cardinal (5-5) - 61.0
61. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-5-1) - 61.5
62. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 61.9
63. Holy Cross Crusaders (5-5) - 63.3
64. William & Mary Tribe (5-4-1) - 63.8
65. Buffalo Bulls (6-4) - 64.0
66. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 64.8
67. Navy Midshipmen (5-4-1) - 65.8
68. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-3) - 67.0
69. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 68.8
70. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) - 70.5
71. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 71.3
72. Boston College Eagles (4-6) - 73.3
73. Michigan State Spartans (3-7) - 73.7
74. Arizona Wildcats (3-6-1) - 74.1
75. Richmond Spiders (5-5) - 74.2
76. Duke Blue Devils (4-6) - 74.7
77. Xavier Musketeers (6-3-1) - 76.1
78. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-6) - 77.9
79. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-5) - 78.6
80. Rice Owls (4-6) - 79.9
81. Utah Utes (4-7) - 80.8
82. Villanova Wildcats (4-6) - 81.5
83. Citadel Bulldogs (5-5) - 83.2
84. Michigan Wolverines (4-6) - 83.3
85. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) - 85.1
86. Wichita State Shockers (2-7-1) - 86.6
87. Kentucky Wildcats (2-8) - 86.9
88. Tulane Green Wave (3-7) - 88.0
89. Northwestern Wildcats (3-7) - 89.6
90. Air Force Falcons (2-6-2) - 90.6
91. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7-1) - 91.1
92. Davidson Wildcats (4-5) - 91.3
93. Pacific Tigers (4-5) - 91.8
94. SMU Mustangs (3-7) - 92.7
(tie) TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) - 92.7
96. Cincinnati Bearcats (3-6) - 95.5
97. Pennsylvania Relays (3-6) - 98.2
98. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-9) - 98.4
99. Oregon Ducks (2-8) - 98.6
100. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-8-1) - 100.1
101. Washington State Cougars (2-8) - 100.3
102. Baylor Bears (1-8-1) - 102.2
103. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-8) - 103.6
104. Kansas State Wildcats (1-9) - 105.1
(tie) Tampa Spartans (2-7) - 105.1
106. Furman Paladins (5-5) - 105.3
107. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-5) - 106.5
108. Iowa State Cyclones (2-8) - 109.1
109. Wisconsin Badgers (0-9-1) - 109.4
110. San Jose State Spartans (2-7) - 109.8
111. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 111.7
112. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-9) - 112.2
113. Colgate Raiders (2-8) - 112.9
114. Brown Bears (2-6-1) - 114.2
115. Maryland Terrapins (0-9) - 116.5
116. Idaho Vandals (4-6) - 117.1
117. New Mexico Lobos (1-9) - 117.4
118. Marshall Thundering Herd (0-10) - 119.0
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
1. USC Trojans (10-1) - 1.5
2. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) - 2.0
3. Wyoming Cowboys (10-1) - 2.7
4. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 4.9
5. NC State Wolfpack (9-2) - 5.6
6. UTEP Miners (7-2-1) - 6.0
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) - 7.6
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2-1) - 9.6
9. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 10.2
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2-1) - 10.3
11. LSU Tigers (7-3-1) - 11.6
12. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 11.8
(tie) Toledo Rockets (9-1) - 11.8
14. UCLA Bruins (7-2-1) - 13.9
15. Houston Cougars (7-3) - 14.2
16. Florida State Seminoles (7-2-2) - 16.4
(tie) Georgia Bulldogs (7-4) - 16.4
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 17.4
19. North Texas Mean Green (7-1-1) - 18.3
20. Oregon State Beavers (7-2-1) - 19.4
21. Colorado Buffaloes (9-2) - 21.1
22. Auburn Tigers (6-4) - 23.7
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (6-4-1) - 23.7
24. Syracuse Orange (8-2) - 24.7
25. Memphis Tigers (6-3) - 24.9
26. Miami Hurricanes (7-4) - 25.9
27. Dartmouth Big Green (7-2) - 26.0
28. Texas A&M Aggies (7-4) - 29.2
29. Texas Longhorns (6-4) - 29.4
30. Missouri Tigers (7-3) - 31.6
31. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-3) - 32.0
32. Utah State Aggies (7-2-1) - 33.1
33. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-2) - 33.2
34. Cornell Big Red (6-2-1) - 33.8
35. Ohio Bobcats (5-5) - 35.8
36. ECU Pirates (8-2) - 36.1
37. Clemson Tigers (6-4) - 37.2
38. Army Black Knights (8-2) - 39.1
39. New Mexico State Aggies (7-2-1) - 39.3
40. BYU Cougars (6-4) - 39.9
41. Harvard Crimson (6-3) - 40.7
42. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-3) - 41.7
43. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-4) - 41.8
44. Florida Gators (6-4) - 42.4
45. Indiana Hoosiers (9-2) - 42.6
46. Princeton Tigers (6-3) - 46.1
47. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4-1) - 46.8
48. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3) - 48.9
49. Kansas Jayhawks (5-5) - 49.0
50. Miami University RedHawks (6-4) - 49.2
51. VMI Keydets (6-4) - 51.1
52. Louisville Cardinals (5-5) - 52.7
53. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (8-3) - 52.8
54. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5-1) - 53.2
55. Dayton Flyers (6-3-1) - 57.4
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 57.4
57. Washington Huskies (5-5) - 57.6
58. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-5) - 58.0
59. Colorado State Rams (4-5-1) - 58.8
60. Stanford Cardinal (5-5) - 61.0
61. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-5-1) - 61.5
62. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 61.9
63. Holy Cross Crusaders (5-5) - 63.3
64. William & Mary Tribe (5-4-1) - 63.8
65. Buffalo Bulls (6-4) - 64.0
66. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 64.8
67. Navy Midshipmen (5-4-1) - 65.8
68. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-3) - 67.0
69. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 68.8
70. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) - 70.5
71. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 71.3
72. Boston College Eagles (4-6) - 73.3
73. Michigan State Spartans (3-7) - 73.7
74. Arizona Wildcats (3-6-1) - 74.1
75. Richmond Spiders (5-5) - 74.2
76. Duke Blue Devils (4-6) - 74.7
77. Xavier Musketeers (6-3-1) - 76.1
78. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-6) - 77.9
79. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-5) - 78.6
80. Rice Owls (4-6) - 79.9
81. Utah Utes (4-7) - 80.8
82. Villanova Wildcats (4-6) - 81.5
83. Citadel Bulldogs (5-5) - 83.2
84. Michigan Wolverines (4-6) - 83.3
85. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) - 85.1
86. Wichita State Shockers (2-7-1) - 86.6
87. Kentucky Wildcats (2-8) - 86.9
88. Tulane Green Wave (3-7) - 88.0
89. Northwestern Wildcats (3-7) - 89.6
90. Air Force Falcons (2-6-2) - 90.6
91. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7-1) - 91.1
92. Davidson Wildcats (4-5) - 91.3
93. Pacific Tigers (4-5) - 91.8
94. SMU Mustangs (3-7) - 92.7
(tie) TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) - 92.7
96. Cincinnati Bearcats (3-6) - 95.5
97. Pennsylvania Relays (3-6) - 98.2
98. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-9) - 98.4
99. Oregon Ducks (2-8) - 98.6
100. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-8-1) - 100.1
101. Washington State Cougars (2-8) - 100.3
102. Baylor Bears (1-8-1) - 102.2
103. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-8) - 103.6
104. Kansas State Wildcats (1-9) - 105.1
(tie) Tampa Spartans (2-7) - 105.1
106. Furman Paladins (5-5) - 105.3
107. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-5) - 106.5
108. Iowa State Cyclones (2-8) - 109.1
109. Wisconsin Badgers (0-9-1) - 109.4
110. San Jose State Spartans (2-7) - 109.8
111. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 111.7
112. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-9) - 112.2
113. Colgate Raiders (2-8) - 112.9
114. Brown Bears (2-6-1) - 114.2
115. Maryland Terrapins (0-9) - 116.5
116. Idaho Vandals (4-6) - 117.1
117. New Mexico Lobos (1-9) - 117.4
118. Marshall Thundering Herd (0-10) - 119.0
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
Monday, May 2, 2011
1968 College Football Final Rankings
Here are the final rankings for 1968:
1. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-0) - 1.5
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) - 2.0
3. Texas Longhorns (9-1-1) - 3.5
4. Yale Bulldogs (8-0-1) - 4.1
5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1-2) - 5.1
6. Kansas Jayhawks (9-2) - 6.3
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1) - 6.6
8. USC Trojans (9-1-1) - 8.9
9. Ohio Bobcats (10-1) - 9.7
10. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2-1) - 11.1
11. Houston Cougars (6-2-2) - 12.3
12. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 12.9
13. Harvard Crimson (8-0-1) - 13.2
14. Army Black Knights (7-3) - 13.5
(tie) Missouri Tigers (8-3) - 13.5
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2-1) - 14.9
17. Oklahoma Sooners (7-4) - 18.7
18. SMU Mustangs (8-3) - 18.8
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 19.9
20. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 20.6
21. Oregon State Beavers (7-3) - 20.9
22. California Golden Bears (7-3-1) - 21.3
23. Auburn Tigers (7-4) - 21.8
24. Michigan Wolverines (8-2) - 24.3
25. Stanford Cardinal (6-3-1) - 25.3
26. Miami University RedHawks (7-3) - 26.4
27. Memphis Tigers (6-4) - 26.7
28. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) - 29.1
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) - 30.1
30. Wyoming Cowboys (7-3) - 30.2
31. Air Force Falcons (7-3) - 30.4
32. Ole Miss Rebels (7-3-1) - 30.5
33. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-2) - 32.1
34. North Texas Mean Green (8-2) - 35.3
35. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-4) - 36.0
36. Richmond Spiders (8-3) - 36.5
37. Toledo Rockets (5-4-1) - 38.2
38. Boston College Eagles (6-3) - 39.5
(tie) LSU Tigers (8-3) - 39.5
40. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (8-2) - 40.2
41. Florida Gators (6-3-1) - 40.3
42. Arizona Wildcats (8-3) - 40.9
43. Michigan State Spartans (5-5) - 42.2
44. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-4) - 42.9
45. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 43.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (6-4) - 47.6
47. Miami Hurricanes (5-5) - 47.7
48. Princeton Tigers (4-5) - 48.1
49. Utah State Aggies (7-3) - 49.3
50. Syracuse Orange (6-4) - 49.4
51. Pennsylvania Relays (7-2) - 50.2
52. Indiana Hoosiers (6-4) - 51.0
53. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-4-1) - 51.7
54. Bowling Green Falcons (6-3-1) - 52.6
55. Colorado Buffaloes (4-6) - 55.2
56. Kentucky Wildcats (3-7) - 55.9
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3-2) - 55.9
58. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) - 56.7
59. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-5) - 58.0
60. Kansas State Wildcats (4-6) - 60.3
61. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4-1) - 63.2
62. Pacific Tigers (6-4) - 63.5
63. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 63.6
64. Clemson Tigers (4-5-1) - 65.0
65. Villanova Wildcats (6-4) - 65.7
66. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-6) - 66.1
67. Texas A&M Aggies (3-7) - 66.2
68. Dayton Flyers (5-5) - 66.5
69. Dartmouth Big Green (4-5) - 68.6
70. Washington State Cougars (3-6-1) - 70.9
71. Tampa Spartans (7-3) - 71.8
72. Oregon Ducks (4-6) - 72.5
73. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-7-1) - 73.5
74. Colgate Raiders (5-5) - 75.2
75. UCLA Bruins (3-7) - 76.1
76. Washington Huskies (3-5-2) - 77.3
77. Buffalo Bulls (7-3) - 77.6
(tie) Idaho Vandals (5-5) - 77.6
79. Cornell Big Red (3-6) - 77.7
80. Xavier Musketeers (6-4) - 79.0
81. Iowa State Cyclones (3-7) - 79.9
82. Holy Cross Crusaders (3-6-1) - 80.6
83. TCU Horned Frogs (3-7) - 82.9
84. Utah Utes (3-7) - 84.2
85. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-7) - 84.8
86. Baylor Bears (3-7) - 84.9
87. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-6) - 86.3
88. Duke Blue Devils (4-6) - 86.9
89. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 89.3
90. UTEP Miners (4-5-1) - 90.5
91. Western Michigan Broncos (3-6) - 91.0
92. Citadel Bulldogs (5-5) - 92.5
93. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) - 93.9
94. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0-8-2) - 95.5
95. Tulane Green Wave (2-8) - 96.1
96. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 96.3
97. Louisville Cardinals (5-5) - 96.5
98. William & Mary Tribe (3-7) - 98.0
99. Navy Midshipmen (2-8) - 99.4
100. New Mexico State Aggies (5-5) - 100.3
101. Maryland Terrapins (2-8) - 100.8
102. BYU Cougars (2-8) - 100.9
103. Davidson Wildcats (3-6) - 101.4
104. ECU Pirates (4-6) - 106.1
105. Colorado State Rams (2-8) - 107.0
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-9) - 107.2
107. San Jose State Spartans (3-7) - 107.6
108. VMI Keydets (1-9) - 108.4
109. Brown Bears (2-7) - 110.2
110. Rice Owls (0-9-1) - 110.5
111. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-9) - 111.9
112. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-8) - 112.3
113. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-9) - 113.0
114. Wisconsin Badgers (0-10) - 114.6
115. Northwestern Wildcats (1-9) - 116.5
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (0-9-1) - 117.1
117. Wichita State Shockers (0-10) - 117.9
118. Furman Paladins (1-9) - 118.4
119. New Mexico Lobos (0-10) - 120.0
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
1. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-0) - 1.5
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) - 2.0
3. Texas Longhorns (9-1-1) - 3.5
4. Yale Bulldogs (8-0-1) - 4.1
5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1-2) - 5.1
6. Kansas Jayhawks (9-2) - 6.3
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1) - 6.6
8. USC Trojans (9-1-1) - 8.9
9. Ohio Bobcats (10-1) - 9.7
10. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2-1) - 11.1
11. Houston Cougars (6-2-2) - 12.3
12. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 12.9
13. Harvard Crimson (8-0-1) - 13.2
14. Army Black Knights (7-3) - 13.5
(tie) Missouri Tigers (8-3) - 13.5
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2-1) - 14.9
17. Oklahoma Sooners (7-4) - 18.7
18. SMU Mustangs (8-3) - 18.8
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 19.9
20. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 20.6
21. Oregon State Beavers (7-3) - 20.9
22. California Golden Bears (7-3-1) - 21.3
23. Auburn Tigers (7-4) - 21.8
24. Michigan Wolverines (8-2) - 24.3
25. Stanford Cardinal (6-3-1) - 25.3
26. Miami University RedHawks (7-3) - 26.4
27. Memphis Tigers (6-4) - 26.7
28. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) - 29.1
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) - 30.1
30. Wyoming Cowboys (7-3) - 30.2
31. Air Force Falcons (7-3) - 30.4
32. Ole Miss Rebels (7-3-1) - 30.5
33. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-2) - 32.1
34. North Texas Mean Green (8-2) - 35.3
35. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-4) - 36.0
36. Richmond Spiders (8-3) - 36.5
37. Toledo Rockets (5-4-1) - 38.2
38. Boston College Eagles (6-3) - 39.5
(tie) LSU Tigers (8-3) - 39.5
40. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (8-2) - 40.2
41. Florida Gators (6-3-1) - 40.3
42. Arizona Wildcats (8-3) - 40.9
43. Michigan State Spartans (5-5) - 42.2
44. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-4) - 42.9
45. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 43.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (6-4) - 47.6
47. Miami Hurricanes (5-5) - 47.7
48. Princeton Tigers (4-5) - 48.1
49. Utah State Aggies (7-3) - 49.3
50. Syracuse Orange (6-4) - 49.4
51. Pennsylvania Relays (7-2) - 50.2
52. Indiana Hoosiers (6-4) - 51.0
53. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-4-1) - 51.7
54. Bowling Green Falcons (6-3-1) - 52.6
55. Colorado Buffaloes (4-6) - 55.2
56. Kentucky Wildcats (3-7) - 55.9
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3-2) - 55.9
58. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) - 56.7
59. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-5) - 58.0
60. Kansas State Wildcats (4-6) - 60.3
61. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4-1) - 63.2
62. Pacific Tigers (6-4) - 63.5
63. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 63.6
64. Clemson Tigers (4-5-1) - 65.0
65. Villanova Wildcats (6-4) - 65.7
66. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-6) - 66.1
67. Texas A&M Aggies (3-7) - 66.2
68. Dayton Flyers (5-5) - 66.5
69. Dartmouth Big Green (4-5) - 68.6
70. Washington State Cougars (3-6-1) - 70.9
71. Tampa Spartans (7-3) - 71.8
72. Oregon Ducks (4-6) - 72.5
73. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-7-1) - 73.5
74. Colgate Raiders (5-5) - 75.2
75. UCLA Bruins (3-7) - 76.1
76. Washington Huskies (3-5-2) - 77.3
77. Buffalo Bulls (7-3) - 77.6
(tie) Idaho Vandals (5-5) - 77.6
79. Cornell Big Red (3-6) - 77.7
80. Xavier Musketeers (6-4) - 79.0
81. Iowa State Cyclones (3-7) - 79.9
82. Holy Cross Crusaders (3-6-1) - 80.6
83. TCU Horned Frogs (3-7) - 82.9
84. Utah Utes (3-7) - 84.2
85. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-7) - 84.8
86. Baylor Bears (3-7) - 84.9
87. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-6) - 86.3
88. Duke Blue Devils (4-6) - 86.9
89. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 89.3
90. UTEP Miners (4-5-1) - 90.5
91. Western Michigan Broncos (3-6) - 91.0
92. Citadel Bulldogs (5-5) - 92.5
93. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) - 93.9
94. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0-8-2) - 95.5
95. Tulane Green Wave (2-8) - 96.1
96. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 96.3
97. Louisville Cardinals (5-5) - 96.5
98. William & Mary Tribe (3-7) - 98.0
99. Navy Midshipmen (2-8) - 99.4
100. New Mexico State Aggies (5-5) - 100.3
101. Maryland Terrapins (2-8) - 100.8
102. BYU Cougars (2-8) - 100.9
103. Davidson Wildcats (3-6) - 101.4
104. ECU Pirates (4-6) - 106.1
105. Colorado State Rams (2-8) - 107.0
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-9) - 107.2
107. San Jose State Spartans (3-7) - 107.6
108. VMI Keydets (1-9) - 108.4
109. Brown Bears (2-7) - 110.2
110. Rice Owls (0-9-1) - 110.5
111. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-9) - 111.9
112. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-8) - 112.3
113. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-9) - 113.0
114. Wisconsin Badgers (0-10) - 114.6
115. Northwestern Wildcats (1-9) - 116.5
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (0-9-1) - 117.1
117. Wichita State Shockers (0-10) - 117.9
118. Furman Paladins (1-9) - 118.4
119. New Mexico Lobos (0-10) - 120.0
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
1969 College Football Final Rankings
After a few months hiatus, we pick up where we left off prior to the 2010 season with our historical rankings lists. Here are the final rankings for the 1969 season. Watch for additional seasons to be released soon...
1. San Diego State Aztecs (11-0) - 1.3
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-0) - 2.2
3. Toledo Rockets (11-0) - 2.5
4. Texas Longhorns (11-0) - 4.0
5. USC Trojans (10-0-1) - 6.4
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) - 7.9
7. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 8.2
8. LSU Tigers (9-1) - 8.3
9. UCLA Bruins (8-1-1) - 9.1
10. Missouri Tigers (9-2) - 9.3
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2) - 9.6
12. Houston Cougars (9-2) - 11.7
13. Florida Gators (9-1-1) - 12.7
14. Stanford Cardinal (7-2-1) - 14.8
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 15.1
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) - 16.6
17. Dartmouth Big Green (8-1) - 17.0
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2-1) - 17.3
19. Auburn Tigers (8-3) - 17.4
20. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-1) - 19.5
21. Michigan Wolverines (8-3) - 20.4
22. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 22.3
23. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 22.4
24. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) - 24.3
25. Memphis Tigers (8-2) - 25.7
26. Oregon State Beavers (6-4) - 28.2
27. Long Beach State 49ers (8-3) - 28.4
28. Utah Utes (8-2) - 28.7
29. Air Force Falcons (6-4) - 28.8
30. Kansas State Wildcats (5-5) - 29.5
31. North Texas Mean Green (7-3) - 31.7
32. Princeton Tigers (6-3) - 31.9
33. Oklahoma Sooners (6-4) - 32.2
34. Georgia Bulldogs (5-5-1) - 33.3
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-5) - 33.4
36. Yale Bulldogs (7-2) - 36.3
37. Florida State Seminoles (6-3-1) - 36.8
38. Pacific Tigers (7-3) - 37.0
39. Villanova Wildcats (6-3) - 37.9
40. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-5) - 40.4
41. Miami University RedHawks (7-3) - 40.6
42. Buffalo Bulls (6-3) - 42.1
43. Ohio Bobcats (5-4-1) - 43.2
44. Wyoming Cowboys (6-4) - 43.6
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-3) - 45.8
46. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 47.5
47. Western Michigan Broncos (4-6) - 48.2
48. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-4) - 48.3
49. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4) - 50.3
50. BYU Cougars (6-4) - 50.4
51. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 50.7
52. Richmond Spiders (6-4) - 51.1
53. Oregon Ducks (5-5-1) - 52.3
54. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-5-1) - 54.2
55. UCSB Gauchos (6-4) - 54.9
56. Miami Hurricanes (4-6) - 56.5
57. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4) - 58.4
58. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-5) - 59.3
59. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5-1) - 61.8
60. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-6) - 62.4
61. Michigan State Spartans (4-6) - 62.9
62. TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) - 63.1
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) - 63.1
64. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-7) - 64.2
65. Cornell Big Red (4-5) - 64.3
(tie) Syracuse Orange (5-5) - 64.3
67. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) - 64.9
68. Davidson Wildcats (7-4) - 67.3
69. Citadel Bulldogs (7-3) - 68.1
70. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 69.8
71. Colorado State Rams (4-6) - 70.6
72. Army Black Knights (4-5-1) - 70.9
73. Colgate Raiders (5-3-1) - 73.5
74. Arizona Wildcats (3-7) - 75.1
75. Boston College Eagles (5-4) - 77.1
76. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-6) - 77.2
77. Indiana Hoosiers (4-6) - 77.4
78. SMU Mustangs (3-7) - 78.4
79. NC State Wolfpack (3-6-1) - 80.2
80. Tulane Green Wave (3-7) - 80.5
81. Iowa State Cyclones (3-7) - 80.8
82. New Mexico State Aggies (5-5) - 81.2
83. Texas A&M Aggies (3-7) - 81.3
84. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (5-5) - 82.8
85. Dayton Flyers (3-7) - 83.1
(tie) Iowa Hawkeyes (5-5) - 83.1
87. UTEP Miners (4-6) - 85.9
88. Pennsylvania Relays (4-5) - 86.2
89. Clemson Tigers (4-6) - 88.7
90. Harvard Crimson (3-6) - 89.3
91. Kentucky Wildcats (2-8) - 91.9
92. Utah State Aggies (3-7) - 93.1
93. Kansas Jayhawks (1-9) - 93.8
94. Louisville Cardinals (5-4-1) - 94.1
95. Rice Owls (3-7) - 95.5
96. New Mexico Lobos (4-6) - 95.7
97. San Jose State Spartans (2-8) - 96.1
98. Duke Blue Devils (3-6-1) - 96.6
99. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-7) - 99.4
100. Northwestern Wildcats (3-7) - 100.3
101. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-7) - 102.2
102. William & Mary Tribe (3-7) - 104.2
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-6) - 104.7
104. Maryland Terrapins (3-7) - 105.1
105. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-7) - 105.5
(tie) Wisconsin Badgers (3-7) - 105.5
107. Brown Bears (2-7) - 109.2
(tie) Wichita State Shockers (2-8) - 109.2
109. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 109.4
110. Washington Huskies (1-9) - 109.8
111. Columbia Lions (1-8) - 111.1
112. ECU Pirates (2-7) - 113.2
113. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-9) - 114.0
114. Furman Paladins (1-8-1) - 115.0
115. Xavier Musketeers (1-9) - 116.0
116. Idaho Vandals (2-8) - 117.4
117. Navy Midshipmen (1-9) - 117.5
118. Washington State Cougars (1-9) - 117.7
119. Cal State Los Angeles Golden Eagles (0-9) - 120.1
120. Baylor Bears (0-10) - 121.1
121. Illinois Fighting Illini (0-10) - 122.0
122. VMI Keydets (0-10) - 122.8
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
1. San Diego State Aztecs (11-0) - 1.3
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-0) - 2.2
3. Toledo Rockets (11-0) - 2.5
4. Texas Longhorns (11-0) - 4.0
5. USC Trojans (10-0-1) - 6.4
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) - 7.9
7. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 8.2
8. LSU Tigers (9-1) - 8.3
9. UCLA Bruins (8-1-1) - 9.1
10. Missouri Tigers (9-2) - 9.3
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2) - 9.6
12. Houston Cougars (9-2) - 11.7
13. Florida Gators (9-1-1) - 12.7
14. Stanford Cardinal (7-2-1) - 14.8
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 15.1
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) - 16.6
17. Dartmouth Big Green (8-1) - 17.0
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2-1) - 17.3
19. Auburn Tigers (8-3) - 17.4
20. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-1) - 19.5
21. Michigan Wolverines (8-3) - 20.4
22. Purdue Boilermakers (8-2) - 22.3
23. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 22.4
24. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) - 24.3
25. Memphis Tigers (8-2) - 25.7
26. Oregon State Beavers (6-4) - 28.2
27. Long Beach State 49ers (8-3) - 28.4
28. Utah Utes (8-2) - 28.7
29. Air Force Falcons (6-4) - 28.8
30. Kansas State Wildcats (5-5) - 29.5
31. North Texas Mean Green (7-3) - 31.7
32. Princeton Tigers (6-3) - 31.9
33. Oklahoma Sooners (6-4) - 32.2
34. Georgia Bulldogs (5-5-1) - 33.3
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-5) - 33.4
36. Yale Bulldogs (7-2) - 36.3
37. Florida State Seminoles (6-3-1) - 36.8
38. Pacific Tigers (7-3) - 37.0
39. Villanova Wildcats (6-3) - 37.9
40. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-5) - 40.4
41. Miami University RedHawks (7-3) - 40.6
42. Buffalo Bulls (6-3) - 42.1
43. Ohio Bobcats (5-4-1) - 43.2
44. Wyoming Cowboys (6-4) - 43.6
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-3) - 45.8
46. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 47.5
47. Western Michigan Broncos (4-6) - 48.2
48. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-4) - 48.3
49. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4) - 50.3
50. BYU Cougars (6-4) - 50.4
51. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 50.7
52. Richmond Spiders (6-4) - 51.1
53. Oregon Ducks (5-5-1) - 52.3
54. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-5-1) - 54.2
55. UCSB Gauchos (6-4) - 54.9
56. Miami Hurricanes (4-6) - 56.5
57. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4) - 58.4
58. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-5) - 59.3
59. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5-1) - 61.8
60. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-6) - 62.4
61. Michigan State Spartans (4-6) - 62.9
62. TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) - 63.1
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) - 63.1
64. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-7) - 64.2
65. Cornell Big Red (4-5) - 64.3
(tie) Syracuse Orange (5-5) - 64.3
67. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) - 64.9
68. Davidson Wildcats (7-4) - 67.3
69. Citadel Bulldogs (7-3) - 68.1
70. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6) - 69.8
71. Colorado State Rams (4-6) - 70.6
72. Army Black Knights (4-5-1) - 70.9
73. Colgate Raiders (5-3-1) - 73.5
74. Arizona Wildcats (3-7) - 75.1
75. Boston College Eagles (5-4) - 77.1
76. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-6) - 77.2
77. Indiana Hoosiers (4-6) - 77.4
78. SMU Mustangs (3-7) - 78.4
79. NC State Wolfpack (3-6-1) - 80.2
80. Tulane Green Wave (3-7) - 80.5
81. Iowa State Cyclones (3-7) - 80.8
82. New Mexico State Aggies (5-5) - 81.2
83. Texas A&M Aggies (3-7) - 81.3
84. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (5-5) - 82.8
85. Dayton Flyers (3-7) - 83.1
(tie) Iowa Hawkeyes (5-5) - 83.1
87. UTEP Miners (4-6) - 85.9
88. Pennsylvania Relays (4-5) - 86.2
89. Clemson Tigers (4-6) - 88.7
90. Harvard Crimson (3-6) - 89.3
91. Kentucky Wildcats (2-8) - 91.9
92. Utah State Aggies (3-7) - 93.1
93. Kansas Jayhawks (1-9) - 93.8
94. Louisville Cardinals (5-4-1) - 94.1
95. Rice Owls (3-7) - 95.5
96. New Mexico Lobos (4-6) - 95.7
97. San Jose State Spartans (2-8) - 96.1
98. Duke Blue Devils (3-6-1) - 96.6
99. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-7) - 99.4
100. Northwestern Wildcats (3-7) - 100.3
101. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-7) - 102.2
102. William & Mary Tribe (3-7) - 104.2
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-6) - 104.7
104. Maryland Terrapins (3-7) - 105.1
105. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-7) - 105.5
(tie) Wisconsin Badgers (3-7) - 105.5
107. Brown Bears (2-7) - 109.2
(tie) Wichita State Shockers (2-8) - 109.2
109. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 109.4
110. Washington Huskies (1-9) - 109.8
111. Columbia Lions (1-8) - 111.1
112. ECU Pirates (2-7) - 113.2
113. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-9) - 114.0
114. Furman Paladins (1-8-1) - 115.0
115. Xavier Musketeers (1-9) - 116.0
116. Idaho Vandals (2-8) - 117.4
117. Navy Midshipmen (1-9) - 117.5
118. Washington State Cougars (1-9) - 117.7
119. Cal State Los Angeles Golden Eagles (0-9) - 120.1
120. Baylor Bears (0-10) - 121.1
121. Illinois Fighting Illini (0-10) - 122.0
122. VMI Keydets (0-10) - 122.8
Special thanks to James Howell's College Football Scores, which provided the data for our analysis.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Ranking the Programs - Update
Back in September, we posted our rankings of historical Division 1-A football programs - see http://baggaleyfootball.blogspot.com/2010/09/ranking-programs.html. At the time, the rankings were based on 40 years of historical data - back through 1970. We've added 9 years of historical data (back through 1961) and updated the rankings following the 2010 season - meaning now the rankings are based on 50 years of historical data. Of course, the biggest changes came about as a result of the season just completed, since recent success is weighted greater than historical success. If we were to add the previous 50 years (back through 1911), all of those 50 additional years combined would only have a 16% impact on the resulting rankings. With that explanation, here are how the various Division 1-A programs rank following the 2010 season, taking into account the past 50 years of football history.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes - 0.891150832
2. Florida Gators - 0.877670863
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.853544602
4. Florida State Seminoles - 0.852293552
5. Oklahoma Sooners - 0.850895413
6. USC Trojans - 0.840680456
7. Alabama Crimson Tide - 0.836977074
8. Texas Longhorns - 0.814228245
9. Auburn Tigers - 0.804964719
10. Georgia Bulldogs - 0.804096482
11. Miami Hurricanes - 0.802098145
12. Penn State Nittany Lions - 0.799937765
13. LSU Tigers - 0.785530553
14. Virginia Tech Hokies - 0.783017531
15. Michigan Wolverines - 0.778081425
16. Tennessee Volunteers - 0.765869419
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 0.758595071
18. Boise State Broncos - 0.755133235
19. Arkansas Razorbacks - 0.728979101
20. Oregon Ducks - 0.719754676
21. West Virginia Mountaineers - 0.718526855
22. Clemson Tigers - 0.713444416
23. Texas A&M Aggies - 0.694523954
24. BYU Cougars - 0.691782726
25. Wisconsin Badgers - 0.668514428
26. Texas Tech Red Raiders - 0.666169326
27. Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.65407483
28. UCLA Bruins - 0.652794606
29. Arizona State Sun Devils - 0.649783496
30. Michigan State Spartans - 0.649247099
31. Boston College Eagles - 0.643846793
32. Utah Utes - 0.63572054
33. South Carolina Gamecocks - 0.632864257
34. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 0.629444141
35. Washington Huskies - 0.617760963
36. Arizona Wildcats - 0.612486024
37. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 0.607924401
38. Pittsburgh Panthers - 0.607111993
39. California Golden Bears - 0.606785273
40. Colorado Buffaloes - 0.595759671
41. South Florida Bulls - 0.592458002
42. Missouri Tigers - 0.591600485
43. Stanford Cardinal - 0.587262087
44. TCU Horned Frogs - 0.583634636
45. North Carolina Tar Heels - 0.582215918
46. NC State Wolfpack - 0.581228487
47. Air Force Falcons - 0.572420461
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles - 0.567464199
49. Maryland Terrapins - 0.557883519
50. Ole Miss Rebels - 0.556573655
51. Kansas State Wildcats - 0.555266129
52. Virginia Cavaliers - 0.549781226
53. Purdue Boilermakers - 0.542192429
54. Louisville Cardinals - 0.53369945
55. Fresno State Bulldogs - 0.531843416
56. Syracuse Orange - 0.528494823
57. Oregon State Beavers - 0.522156391
58. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 0.519760088
59. Kentucky Wildcats - 0.485927424
60. Cincinnati Bearcats - 0.481810836
61. Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.47817633
62. Hawaii Warriors - 0.475163753
63. Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.472611243
64. Connecticut Huskies - 0.468503706
65. Kansas Jayhawks - 0.465797279
66. Washington State Cougars - 0.462478027
67. Houston Cougars - 0.460865066
68. ECU Pirates - 0.459828997
69. Nevada Wolf Pack - 0.441819138
70. Tulsa Golden Hurricane - 0.436051956
71. UCF Knights - 0.433037311
72. Troy Trojans - 0.430914266
73. San Diego State Aztecs - 0.429962234
74. Toledo Rockets - 0.421991261
75. Miami University RedHawks - 0.418206099
76. Bowling Green Falcons - 0.417769083
77. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 0.415382917
78. Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 0.410930526
79. Marshall Thundering Herd - 0.409437841
80. Navy Midshipmen - 0.407287937
81. Colorado State Rams - 0.40511239
82. Baylor Bears - 0.401776931
83. Iowa State Cyclones - 0.390355926
84. Northwestern Wildcats - 0.380916867
85. Wyoming Cowboys - 0.369919336
86. Central Michigan Chippewas - 0.366696887
87. Northern Illinois Huskies - 0.362104358
88. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - 0.360764786
89. Indiana Hoosiers - 0.352812358
90. Western Michigan Broncos - 0.351447592
91. Memphis Tigers - 0.33187297
92. New Mexico Lobos - 0.320421577
93. SMU Mustangs - 0.315621368
94. Vanderbilt Commodores - 0.305635634
95. Ball State Cardinals - 0.298320755
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders - 0.29394931
97. UAB Blazers - 0.27704403
98. Duke Blue Devils - 0.270186913
99. San Jose State Spartans - 0.267503718
100. Temple Owls - 0.267478244
101. Rice Owls - 0.265714865
102. Ohio Bobcats - 0.262889007
103. Tulane Green Wave - 0.245270835
104. Florida Atlantic Owls - 0.243387674
105. UTEP Miners - 0.241899019
106. Army Black Knights - 0.228890312
107. UNLV Rebels - 0.224073881
108. Utah State Aggies - 0.222073424
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - 0.195403074
110. North Texas Mean Green - 0.19382428
111. Akron Zips - 0.187159857
112. Arkansas State Red Wolves - 0.179803859
113. Idaho Vandals - 0.170898626
114. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - 0.16477316
115. Kent State Golden Flashes - 0.159658143
116. FIU Golden Panthers - 0.134867486
117. Buffalo Bulls - 0.129307436
118. Eastern Michigan Eagles - 0.129144898
119. New Mexico State Aggies - 0.123416506
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 0.10802521
1. Ohio State Buckeyes - 0.891150832
2. Florida Gators - 0.877670863
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.853544602
4. Florida State Seminoles - 0.852293552
5. Oklahoma Sooners - 0.850895413
6. USC Trojans - 0.840680456
7. Alabama Crimson Tide - 0.836977074
8. Texas Longhorns - 0.814228245
9. Auburn Tigers - 0.804964719
10. Georgia Bulldogs - 0.804096482
11. Miami Hurricanes - 0.802098145
12. Penn State Nittany Lions - 0.799937765
13. LSU Tigers - 0.785530553
14. Virginia Tech Hokies - 0.783017531
15. Michigan Wolverines - 0.778081425
16. Tennessee Volunteers - 0.765869419
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 0.758595071
18. Boise State Broncos - 0.755133235
19. Arkansas Razorbacks - 0.728979101
20. Oregon Ducks - 0.719754676
21. West Virginia Mountaineers - 0.718526855
22. Clemson Tigers - 0.713444416
23. Texas A&M Aggies - 0.694523954
24. BYU Cougars - 0.691782726
25. Wisconsin Badgers - 0.668514428
26. Texas Tech Red Raiders - 0.666169326
27. Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.65407483
28. UCLA Bruins - 0.652794606
29. Arizona State Sun Devils - 0.649783496
30. Michigan State Spartans - 0.649247099
31. Boston College Eagles - 0.643846793
32. Utah Utes - 0.63572054
33. South Carolina Gamecocks - 0.632864257
34. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 0.629444141
35. Washington Huskies - 0.617760963
36. Arizona Wildcats - 0.612486024
37. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 0.607924401
38. Pittsburgh Panthers - 0.607111993
39. California Golden Bears - 0.606785273
40. Colorado Buffaloes - 0.595759671
41. South Florida Bulls - 0.592458002
42. Missouri Tigers - 0.591600485
43. Stanford Cardinal - 0.587262087
44. TCU Horned Frogs - 0.583634636
45. North Carolina Tar Heels - 0.582215918
46. NC State Wolfpack - 0.581228487
47. Air Force Falcons - 0.572420461
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles - 0.567464199
49. Maryland Terrapins - 0.557883519
50. Ole Miss Rebels - 0.556573655
51. Kansas State Wildcats - 0.555266129
52. Virginia Cavaliers - 0.549781226
53. Purdue Boilermakers - 0.542192429
54. Louisville Cardinals - 0.53369945
55. Fresno State Bulldogs - 0.531843416
56. Syracuse Orange - 0.528494823
57. Oregon State Beavers - 0.522156391
58. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 0.519760088
59. Kentucky Wildcats - 0.485927424
60. Cincinnati Bearcats - 0.481810836
61. Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.47817633
62. Hawaii Warriors - 0.475163753
63. Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.472611243
64. Connecticut Huskies - 0.468503706
65. Kansas Jayhawks - 0.465797279
66. Washington State Cougars - 0.462478027
67. Houston Cougars - 0.460865066
68. ECU Pirates - 0.459828997
69. Nevada Wolf Pack - 0.441819138
70. Tulsa Golden Hurricane - 0.436051956
71. UCF Knights - 0.433037311
72. Troy Trojans - 0.430914266
73. San Diego State Aztecs - 0.429962234
74. Toledo Rockets - 0.421991261
75. Miami University RedHawks - 0.418206099
76. Bowling Green Falcons - 0.417769083
77. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 0.415382917
78. Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 0.410930526
79. Marshall Thundering Herd - 0.409437841
80. Navy Midshipmen - 0.407287937
81. Colorado State Rams - 0.40511239
82. Baylor Bears - 0.401776931
83. Iowa State Cyclones - 0.390355926
84. Northwestern Wildcats - 0.380916867
85. Wyoming Cowboys - 0.369919336
86. Central Michigan Chippewas - 0.366696887
87. Northern Illinois Huskies - 0.362104358
88. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - 0.360764786
89. Indiana Hoosiers - 0.352812358
90. Western Michigan Broncos - 0.351447592
91. Memphis Tigers - 0.33187297
92. New Mexico Lobos - 0.320421577
93. SMU Mustangs - 0.315621368
94. Vanderbilt Commodores - 0.305635634
95. Ball State Cardinals - 0.298320755
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders - 0.29394931
97. UAB Blazers - 0.27704403
98. Duke Blue Devils - 0.270186913
99. San Jose State Spartans - 0.267503718
100. Temple Owls - 0.267478244
101. Rice Owls - 0.265714865
102. Ohio Bobcats - 0.262889007
103. Tulane Green Wave - 0.245270835
104. Florida Atlantic Owls - 0.243387674
105. UTEP Miners - 0.241899019
106. Army Black Knights - 0.228890312
107. UNLV Rebels - 0.224073881
108. Utah State Aggies - 0.222073424
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - 0.195403074
110. North Texas Mean Green - 0.19382428
111. Akron Zips - 0.187159857
112. Arkansas State Red Wolves - 0.179803859
113. Idaho Vandals - 0.170898626
114. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - 0.16477316
115. Kent State Golden Flashes - 0.159658143
116. FIU Golden Panthers - 0.134867486
117. Buffalo Bulls - 0.129307436
118. Eastern Michigan Eagles - 0.129144898
119. New Mexico State Aggies - 0.123416506
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 0.10802521
Friday, January 14, 2011
2010 Final Rankings
Congratulations to the Oregon Ducks! You are the Baggaley NCAA Football Ranking System National Champions for the 2010 Season. And before fans from Auburn cry foul, let us remind you that our rankings are based on an entire season performance, with all games weighted equally - meaning that Auburn's last second field goal victory over Oregon was not enough to overtake the difference in the overall season performance, especially some of Auburn's early-season games that were closer than they ought to have been against inferior competition. In fact, Auburn was not even able to overtake the TCU Horned Frogs who came in second. Here are the complete final rankings:
1. Oregon Ducks (12-1) - 1.2
2. TCU Horned Frogs (13-0) - 2.3
3. Auburn Tigers (14-0) - 3.0
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 3.6
5. Stanford Cardinal (12-1) - 4.9
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) - 6.3
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) - 7.1
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 8.3
9. LSU Tigers (11-2) - 9.9
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) - 10.5
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (13-1) - 10.9
12. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) - 11.6
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-3) - 11.8
14. Missouri Tigers (10-3) - 14.7
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3) - 15.2
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-5) - 16.5
17. Florida State Seminoles (10-4) - 16.9
18. Texas A&M Aggies (9-4) - 18.5
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-4) - 18.7
20. Michigan State Spartans (11-2) - 19.1
21. Utah Utes (10-3) - 21.6
22. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 22.5
23. Air Force Falcons (9-4) - 23.8
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5) - 24.1
25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 25.3
26. NC State Wolfpack (9-4) - 26.1
27. San Diego State Aztecs (9-4) - 26.8
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-4) - 27.0
29. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5) - 28.8
30. Florida Gators (7-5) - 30.5
31. Miami Hurricanes (7-6) - 32.6
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 32.7
33. UCF Knights (11-3) - 33.4
34. USC Trojans (8-5) - 34.5
35. Arizona Wildcats (7-6) - 36.0
36. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-3) - 36.3
37. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-6) - 36.7
38. Clemson Tigers (6-7) - 37.3
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (10-4) - 37.3
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (9-4) - 37.3
41. Navy Midshipmen (9-4) - 41.9
42. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6) - 42.4
43. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 43.0
44. Washington Huskies (7-6) - 44.0
45. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5) - 45.7
46. Kansas State Wildcats (7-6) - 46.8
47. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 49.1
48. Michigan Wolverines (7-6) - 49.8
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-6) - 50.0
50. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 50.5
51. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-5) - 50.7
52. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-6) - 51.2
53. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 53.8
54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 54.1
55. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 55.3
56. South Florida Bulls (8-5) - 55.6
57. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.7
58. Baylor Bears (7-6) - 58.6
(tie) BYU Cougars (7-6) - 58.6
60. Connecticut Huskies (8-5) - 58.7
61. Syracuse Orange (8-5) - 61.4
62. Tennessee Volunteers (6-7) - 62.3
63. Kentucky Wildcats (6-7) - 62.7
64. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 65.3
65. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-5) - 65.8
66. Temple Owls (8-4) - 66.1
67. SMU Mustangs (7-7) - 69.0
68. Army Black Knights (7-6) - 69.4
69. Troy Trojans (8-5) - 70.2
70. Northwestern Wildcats (7-6) - 70.6
71. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) - 70.7
72. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 71.2
73. ECU Pirates (6-7) - 72.2
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-4) - 72.2
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 73.6
76. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 74.0
77. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 74.1
78. FIU Golden Panthers (7-6) - 76.9
79. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 79.1
80. Ohio Bobcats (8-5) - 79.6
81. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 79.7
82. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 80.9
83. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 83.5
84. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.6
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.1
86. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 87.6
87. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.0
88. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 88.6
89. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 89.0
90. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 91.0
91. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 91.1
92. UTEP Miners (6-7) - 92.0
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.1
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.1
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 94.8
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 95.6
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.7
98. Rice Owls (4-8) - 97.3
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-7) - 98.0
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 99.7
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.2
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.2
103. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 104.9
104. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 105.0
105. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 105.3
106. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.0
107. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 106.2
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 107.4
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.9
110. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.1
111. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 109.3
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.4
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.8
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.4
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.4
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.9
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.1
1. Oregon Ducks (12-1) - 1.2
2. TCU Horned Frogs (13-0) - 2.3
3. Auburn Tigers (14-0) - 3.0
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 3.6
5. Stanford Cardinal (12-1) - 4.9
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) - 6.3
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) - 7.1
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 8.3
9. LSU Tigers (11-2) - 9.9
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) - 10.5
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (13-1) - 10.9
12. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) - 11.6
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-3) - 11.8
14. Missouri Tigers (10-3) - 14.7
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3) - 15.2
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-5) - 16.5
17. Florida State Seminoles (10-4) - 16.9
18. Texas A&M Aggies (9-4) - 18.5
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-4) - 18.7
20. Michigan State Spartans (11-2) - 19.1
21. Utah Utes (10-3) - 21.6
22. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 22.5
23. Air Force Falcons (9-4) - 23.8
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5) - 24.1
25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 25.3
26. NC State Wolfpack (9-4) - 26.1
27. San Diego State Aztecs (9-4) - 26.8
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-4) - 27.0
29. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5) - 28.8
30. Florida Gators (7-5) - 30.5
31. Miami Hurricanes (7-6) - 32.6
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 32.7
33. UCF Knights (11-3) - 33.4
34. USC Trojans (8-5) - 34.5
35. Arizona Wildcats (7-6) - 36.0
36. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-3) - 36.3
37. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-6) - 36.7
38. Clemson Tigers (6-7) - 37.3
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (10-4) - 37.3
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (9-4) - 37.3
41. Navy Midshipmen (9-4) - 41.9
42. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6) - 42.4
43. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 43.0
44. Washington Huskies (7-6) - 44.0
45. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5) - 45.7
46. Kansas State Wildcats (7-6) - 46.8
47. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 49.1
48. Michigan Wolverines (7-6) - 49.8
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-6) - 50.0
50. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 50.5
51. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-5) - 50.7
52. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-6) - 51.2
53. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 53.8
54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 54.1
55. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 55.3
56. South Florida Bulls (8-5) - 55.6
57. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.7
58. Baylor Bears (7-6) - 58.6
(tie) BYU Cougars (7-6) - 58.6
60. Connecticut Huskies (8-5) - 58.7
61. Syracuse Orange (8-5) - 61.4
62. Tennessee Volunteers (6-7) - 62.3
63. Kentucky Wildcats (6-7) - 62.7
64. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 65.3
65. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-5) - 65.8
66. Temple Owls (8-4) - 66.1
67. SMU Mustangs (7-7) - 69.0
68. Army Black Knights (7-6) - 69.4
69. Troy Trojans (8-5) - 70.2
70. Northwestern Wildcats (7-6) - 70.6
71. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) - 70.7
72. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 71.2
73. ECU Pirates (6-7) - 72.2
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-4) - 72.2
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 73.6
76. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 74.0
77. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 74.1
78. FIU Golden Panthers (7-6) - 76.9
79. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 79.1
80. Ohio Bobcats (8-5) - 79.6
81. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 79.7
82. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 80.9
83. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 83.5
84. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.6
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.1
86. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 87.6
87. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.0
88. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 88.6
89. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 89.0
90. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 91.0
91. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 91.1
92. UTEP Miners (6-7) - 92.0
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.1
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.1
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 94.8
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 95.6
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.7
98. Rice Owls (4-8) - 97.3
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-7) - 98.0
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 99.7
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.2
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.2
103. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 104.9
104. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 105.0
105. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 105.3
106. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.0
107. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 106.2
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 107.4
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.9
110. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.1
111. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 109.3
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.4
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.8
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.4
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.4
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.9
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.1
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Bowl Season
Our ranking system is not meant to be predictive. Instead, it is meant simply to rank teams by the success of their overall season. We'll be coming out with our post-bowl rankings soon, but first, we do annually take our rankings and use them in the ESPN and Yahoo bowl prediction contests, just to see how they measure up by using the rankings to a) predict the winner of each game - although we know there will be upsets, we "predict" that the favorite according to our ranking system will win each game, and b) assign "confidence points" to each game by using our ranking system to determine the likelihood of an upset and giving more points to the least likely upset - the likeliness of an upset determined by the difference in ranking of the two teams.
Using this simple system, once again, our rankings have proven to be reliable. Yes, 14 of the 35 games ended up as upsets according to our pre-bowl rankings. This is no surprise. Upsets happen every week in our ranking system. Plus, this system does not take into account team motivation - is the team disappointed by the bowl they ended up playing in? - or factors such as coaching changes. No, we did not win either of the contests we entered. There are many thousands of entries in each of these contests.
However, we did perform very well. How well? As expected, most of the upsets were between teams we had closely ranked, meaning we did not rate those games as being worth very many points, so most of the 21 games the system predicted correctly were high value games. Out of a possible 630 points, the ranking system scored 440 points, which is quite good. How good? It outperformed 96% of all entries in the Yahoo contest and 98% of all entries in the ESPN contest. The system especially performed well on games on or after New Years Day - or in other words the bowl games that appear most likely that both teams would be happy and motivated to be playing in. In fact, the system was only wrong on two games on or after New Years Day - both of which were rated very low in confidence points (1 point and 3 points respectively) and therefore are not considered surprising upsets in any sense. In fact, in one stretch, the system correctly picked 9 games in a row correctly, including all of the New Years Day bowl games.
What do we take from this? Not much. While the system seems to be based on a sound premise - the idea that teams with more successful regular seasons will typically perform better in the bowls as well - once again, this ranking system was not meant to be predictive. 14 of the 35 games still turned out to be upsets. But the system did seem to accurately reflect the likelihood of an upset in these bowl games based on the teams' performance during the regular season. Last year, one independent organization compared the BCS system computer rankings to bowl team performance and found that those computer rankings predicted only about half of the games correctly - roughly the same as you would expect if you picked the games by flipping a coin. Well, we outperformed that low standard. But that is no surprise. We feel like the premise of our ranking system is much more sound than any computer ranking system that is not allowed to take into account important aspects such as score differential in games. We do feel that these results tend to support the premise of our ranking system - just as they did last year.
But then again, we didn't think we really needed that justification in the first place. The results of our ranking system speak for themselves. Final rankings for the 2010 season coming soon. (Remember, Auburn was ranked behind TCU in the end of the regular season rankings.) Was the win over Oregon enough to push the Tigers past the Horned Frogs in the final rankings or will we award our national championship to a different team than this year's BCS/human polls? Stayed tuned and see...
Using this simple system, once again, our rankings have proven to be reliable. Yes, 14 of the 35 games ended up as upsets according to our pre-bowl rankings. This is no surprise. Upsets happen every week in our ranking system. Plus, this system does not take into account team motivation - is the team disappointed by the bowl they ended up playing in? - or factors such as coaching changes. No, we did not win either of the contests we entered. There are many thousands of entries in each of these contests.
However, we did perform very well. How well? As expected, most of the upsets were between teams we had closely ranked, meaning we did not rate those games as being worth very many points, so most of the 21 games the system predicted correctly were high value games. Out of a possible 630 points, the ranking system scored 440 points, which is quite good. How good? It outperformed 96% of all entries in the Yahoo contest and 98% of all entries in the ESPN contest. The system especially performed well on games on or after New Years Day - or in other words the bowl games that appear most likely that both teams would be happy and motivated to be playing in. In fact, the system was only wrong on two games on or after New Years Day - both of which were rated very low in confidence points (1 point and 3 points respectively) and therefore are not considered surprising upsets in any sense. In fact, in one stretch, the system correctly picked 9 games in a row correctly, including all of the New Years Day bowl games.
What do we take from this? Not much. While the system seems to be based on a sound premise - the idea that teams with more successful regular seasons will typically perform better in the bowls as well - once again, this ranking system was not meant to be predictive. 14 of the 35 games still turned out to be upsets. But the system did seem to accurately reflect the likelihood of an upset in these bowl games based on the teams' performance during the regular season. Last year, one independent organization compared the BCS system computer rankings to bowl team performance and found that those computer rankings predicted only about half of the games correctly - roughly the same as you would expect if you picked the games by flipping a coin. Well, we outperformed that low standard. But that is no surprise. We feel like the premise of our ranking system is much more sound than any computer ranking system that is not allowed to take into account important aspects such as score differential in games. We do feel that these results tend to support the premise of our ranking system - just as they did last year.
But then again, we didn't think we really needed that justification in the first place. The results of our ranking system speak for themselves. Final rankings for the 2010 season coming soon. (Remember, Auburn was ranked behind TCU in the end of the regular season rankings.) Was the win over Oregon enough to push the Tigers past the Horned Frogs in the final rankings or will we award our national championship to a different team than this year's BCS/human polls? Stayed tuned and see...
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