1976 Final Rankings

In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. Here are the final rankings from 1976:

1. Pittsburgh Panthers (12-0) - 1.0
2. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 2.6
3. Maryland Terrapins (11-1) - 3.9
4. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) - 4.0
5. USC Trojans (11-1) - 4.1
6. Houston Cougars (10-2) - 6.6
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - 7.6
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-2) - 7.7
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 9.6
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2-1) - 11.7
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (9-2-1) - 11.7
12. UCLA Bruins (9-2-1) - 11.8
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 11.9
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-0) - 13.2
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3-1) - 14.8
16. Colorado Buffaloes (8-4) - 15.0
17. ECU Pirates (9-2) - 17.4
18. Iowa State Cyclones (8-3) - 18.5
(tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 18.5
20. Missouri Tigers (6-5) - 20.7
21. Yale Bulldogs (8-1) - 21.1
22. Kentucky Wildcats (8-4) - 22.0
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-2) - 23.5
24. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (9-2) - 24.9
25. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3) - 25.1
26. Florida Gators (8-4) - 26.5
27. San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) - 27.3
28. William & Mary Tribe (7-4) - 27.6
29. LSU Tigers (6-4-1) - 29.7
30. Kansas Jayhawks (6-5) - 30.9
31. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 31.9
32. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 32.8
33. Brown Bears (8-1) - 32.9
34. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 34.1
35. Baylor Bears (7-3-1) - 34.5
36. McNeese State Cowboys (10-2) - 35.5
37. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-5) - 36.9
38. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-5) - 39.2
39. San Jose State Spartans (7-4) - 41.2
40. Furman Paladins (6-4-1) - 41.6
41. Tennessee Volunteers (6-5) - 41.9
42. Texas Longhorns (5-5-1) - 43.1
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3) - 43.2
44. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5-1) - 43.5
45. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-4-1) - 43.9
46. Kent State Golden Flashes (8-4) - 45.1
47. Memphis Tigers (7-4) - 47.6
48. Harvard Crimson (6-3) - 47.9
49. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 50.4
50. Richmond Spiders (5-6) - 51.0
51. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-4-1) - 51.1
52. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5) - 52.6
53. Stanford Cardinal (6-5) - 53.0
54. Ball State Cardinals (8-3) - 54.4
55. Boston College Eagles (8-3) - 55.1
56. Duke Blue Devils (5-5-1) - 56.4
(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (5-6) - 56.4
58. Western Michigan Broncos (7-4) - 57.5
59. North Texas Mean Green (6-5) - 59.0
60. Ohio Bobcats (7-4) - 59.3
61. Colgate Raiders (8-2) - 60.2
62. California Golden Bears (5-6) - 60.8
63. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 63.0
64. Long Beach State 49ers (8-3) - 63.4
65. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 63.9
66. Washington Huskies (5-6) - 65.6
67. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 66.1
68. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 67.5
69. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 69.4
70. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6-1) - 70.8
71. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (6-4-1) - 71.2
72. Bowling Green Falcons (6-5) - 72.0
73. Miami Hurricanes (3-8) - 72.3
74. Clemson Tigers (3-6-2) - 74.8
75. Citadel Bulldogs (6-5) - 75.3
76. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 76.8
77. Villanova Wildcats (6-4-1) - 77.6
78. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-6) - 77.8
79. Florida State Seminoles (5-6) - 78.0
80. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-6) - 78.1
81. Auburn Tigers (3-8) - 78.4
82. VMI Keydets (5-5) - 80.5
83. New Mexico Lobos (4-7) - 82.7
84. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-6) - 85.8
85. Michigan State Spartans (4-6-1) - 86.2
86. Colorado State Rams (6-5) - 87.5
87. Arizona Wildcats (5-6) - 88.0
88. NC State Wolfpack (3-7-1) - 89.5
89. Central Michigan Chippewas (7-4) - 89.7
90. Southern Illinois Salukis (7-4) - 89.9
91. Louisville Cardinals (4-7) - 90.1
92. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 92.3
93. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-9) - 93.3
94. Indiana Hoosiers (5-6) - 93.9
95. Army Black Knights (5-6) - 94.3
96. Oregon Ducks (4-7) - 95.5
97. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-6) - 97.5
98. SMU Mustangs (3-8) - 97.9
99. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-7) - 98.2
100. Miami University RedHawks (3-8) - 99.9
101. Cornell Big Red (2-7) - 100.0
102. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (4-5-2) - 100.7
103. Northwestern State Demons (5-5) - 101.5
104. Washington State Cougars (3-8) - 102.1
105. Air Force Falcons (4-7) - 106.0
(tie) Tulane Green Wave (2-9) - 106.0
107. Temple Owls (4-6) - 106.4
108. Columbia Lions (3-6) - 106.9
109. Wichita State Shockers (4-7) - 109.9
110. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 110.6
111. Princeton Tigers (2-7) - 111.2
112. Pennsylvania Relays (3-6) - 112.6
113. Kansas State Wildcats (1-10) - 113.5
114. Toledo Rockets (3-8) - 113.9
115. Syracuse Orange (3-8) - 117.2
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-7) - 117.8
117. Dayton Flyers (4-7) - 118.5
(tie) Illinois State Redbirds (5-6) - 118.5
119. Utah State Aggies (3-8) - 119.6
120. New Mexico State Aggies (4-6-1) - 120.7
121. Rice Owls (3-8) - 121.8
122. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 123.0
123. Indiana State Sycamores (3-7) - 123.3
124. Cal State Fullerton Titans (3-7-1) - 125.8
125. Oregon State Beavers (2-10) - 126.3
126. Utah Utes (3-8) - 126.7
127. Holy Cross Crusaders (3-8) - 126.9
128. Pacific Tigers (2-9) - 128.6
129. Virginia Cavaliers (2-9) - 128.9
130. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-9) - 130.0
131. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-9) - 131.2
132. Lamar Cardinals (2-9) - 132.3
133. Drake Bulldogs (1-10) - 133.8
134. Hawaii Warriors (3-8) - 135.3
135. UTEP Miners (1-11) - 135.7
136. TCU Horned Frogs (0-11) - 137.2
137. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-10) - 137.8

Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/

1977 Final Rankings

In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. 1977 was the final year before Division 1 split into Division 1-A and Division 1-AA. In anticipation of this, several teams (in fact entire conferences), such as Grambling State (to give one team as an example) moved up to compete for a single year at this highest division before joining the new Division 1-AA. As a result, the rankings list is particularly long this year, and it is possible that some teams who were very successful were really only playing a Division II (or I-AA) schedule against each other and not playing teams from conferences that truly were Division I-A, which is a problem for our system, because it does rely a great deal on non-conference games to help our adjustments for quality of competition be more accurate. Regardless, here are the final rankings from 1977:


1. Arkansas Razorbacks (11-1) - 1.8
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) - 2.0
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 2.4
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 3.8
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 5.4
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 6.1
7. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-2-1) - 6.9
8. San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) - 9.0
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-3) - 9.2
10. Kentucky Wildcats (10-1) - 10.0
11. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 11.6
12. Florida State Seminoles (10-2) - 12.7
13. Grambling State Tigers (10-1) - 13.7
14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 14.2
15. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) - 15.4
16. USC Trojans (8-4) - 16.5
17. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3-1) - 16.6
18. Tennessee State Tigers (8-1-1) - 19.0
19. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 19.5
20. Colgate Raiders (10-1) - 19.9
(tie) Washington Huskies (8-4) - 19.9
22. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 22.6
23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 23.9
24. Clemson Tigers (8-3-1) - 24.8
25. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 25.5
26. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-1-2) - 25.9
27. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 26.3
28. Colorado State Rams (9-2-1) - 27.9
29. Ball State Cardinals (9-2) - 29.0
30. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 30.7
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-1) - 30.7
32. Central Michigan Chippewas (10-1) - 32.0
33. Colorado Buffaloes (7-3-1) - 32.4
34. UCLA Bruins (7-4) - 33.1
35. Yale Bulldogs (7-2) - 34.0
36. Michigan State Spartans (7-3-1) - 34.9
37. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 38.4
38. Washington State Cougars (6-5) - 40.0
39. ECU Pirates (8-3) - 40.8
40. California Golden Bears (7-4) - 40.9
41. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 41.1
42. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 42.2
43. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) - 43.0
44. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 43.2
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 43.7
46. Brown Bears (7-2) - 45.6
47. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 47.9
48. Duke Blue Devils (5-6) - 50.1
(tie) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-5) - 50.1
50. Houston Cougars (6-5) - 50.2
51. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 51.2
52. Jackson State Tigers (8-3) - 52.1
53. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-4-2) - 52.4
54. Syracuse Orange (6-5) - 53.2
55. Florida Gators (6-4-1) - 54.6
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (5-7) - 54.6
57. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (9-1-1) - 54.9
58. Memphis Tigers (6-5) - 58.5
59. Missouri Tigers (4-7) - 58.8
60. Baylor Bears (5-6) - 59.8
61. Navy Midshipmen (5-6) - 61.5
62. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 62.6
63. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-6) - 63.3
64. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 65.1
65. Hawaii Warriors (5-6) - 65.2
66. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4-2) - 68.6
67. William & Mary Tribe (6-5) - 68.9
68. Tennessee Volunteers (4-7) - 69.4
69. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 69.8
70. Army Black Knights (7-4) - 70.0
71. Temple Owls (5-5-1) - 70.3
72. Pacific Tigers (6-5) - 71.8
73. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (6-4-1) - 72.5
74. Georgia Bulldogs (5-6) - 74.2
75. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-3) - 74.7
76. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 76.6
77. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 76.8
78. Princeton Tigers (3-6) - 77.2
79. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 79.3
80. VMI Keydets (7-4) - 80.7
81. Indiana Hoosiers (5-5-1) - 81.3
82. SMU Mustangs (4-7) - 82.4
83. Louisville Cardinals (7-4-1) - 82.5
84. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 83.3
85. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-7) - 84.3
86. Northwestern State Demons (6-5) - 84.7
87. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-5) - 85.4
88. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 87.4
89. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-7-1) - 88.9
90. Pennsylvania Relays (5-4) - 90.3
91. Villanova Wildcats (4-7) - 90.8
92. Harvard Crimson (4-5) - 91.7
93. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-7) - 92.9
94. Texas Southern Tigers (6-4-1) - 95.8
95. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 95.9
96. McNeese State Cowboys (5-5-1) - 96.8
97. Western Michigan Broncos (4-7) - 97.7
98. Wyoming Cowboys (4-6-1) - 98.7
99. Miami Hurricanes (3-8) - 99.1
100. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 99.4
101. San Jose State Spartans (4-7) - 99.8
102. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 101.1
103. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 101.4
104. Tulane Green Wave (3-8) - 102.7
105. Kansas Jayhawks (3-7-1) - 103.3
106. Furman Paladins (4-5-2) - 104.2
107. Long Beach State 49ers (4-6) - 105.7
108. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-4-1) - 106.7
109. Wichita State Shockers (5-6) - 108.5
110. Oregon State Beavers (2-9) - 110.1
111. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 110.6
112. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (5-5) - 110.9
113. Illinois State Redbirds (3-7-1) - 111.8
114. New Mexico State Aggies (4-7) - 114.3
115. Utah Utes (3-8) - 115.7
116. Columbia Lions (2-7) - 116.4
117. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-8) - 117.6
118. Cal State Fullerton Titans (4-7) - 119.0
119. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 119.2
120. Air Force Falcons (2-8-1) - 119.6
121. Kansas State Wildcats (1-10) - 121.2
122. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 123.3
123. Cornell Big Red (1-8) - 124.0
124. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-8) - 125.0
125. Lamar Cardinals (2-9) - 126.4
126. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 127.6
127. Prairie View A&M Panthers (3-8) - 129.7
128. Alcorn State Braves (3-8) - 132.0
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 132.0
130. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-9) - 132.4
131. Southern Jaguars (3-7-1) - 132.8
132. Virginia Cavaliers (1-9-1) - 133.0
133. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 133.8
134. Southern Illinois Salukis (3-8) - 134.0
135. Indiana State Sycamores (3-7) - 134.1
136. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 135.4
137. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 135.5
138. Ohio Bobcats (1-10) - 138.5
139. Holy Cross Crusaders (2-9) - 139.1
140. Drake Bulldogs (2-9) - 140.0
141. Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) - 140.6
142. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-9) - 143.1
143. Rice Owls (1-10) - 144.3
(tie) UTEP Miners (1-10) - 144.3
145. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-9) - 145.5

Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/

Superconferences

Here is (we think) our final blog on the subject of what would truly be the ideal setup for a four-superconference college football landscape. This version takes into account both competitive balance AND geography. We do have a few teams travelling a little bit, but that is a result of our desire to keep all eight divisions of all four superconferences relatively equal based on our 40-year analysis. This seems to us to be the best compromise - and with some tweaks might present the ideal alignment for a four-superconference NCAA football landscape.

East Conference

North Division
Boston College Eagles
Connecticut Huskies
Georgia Bulldogs
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Virginia Cavaliers
West Virginia Mountaineers

South Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Maryland Terrapins
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
South Florida Bulls

Mideast Conference
 
North Division
Cincinnati Bearcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan State Spartans
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Virginia Tech Hokies
Wisconsin Badgers

South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Texas A&M Aggies

Midwest Conference
 
North Division
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
TCU Horned Frogs
Tennessee Volunteers

South Division
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Texas Longhorns

West Conference

North Division
Boise State Broncos
Colorado Buffaloes
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars

South Division
Air Force Falcons
BYU Cougars
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Stanford Cardinal
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans

Okay, enough fantasizing about what could but never will be. Back to analyzing and ranking previous years' football seasons.

Four Equally Competitive Conferences

If balanced competitiveness between the eight superconferences is most important and geography no longer matters - apparently that's true at least for the Big 12 and PAC-10 now - here's an alignment of our 64-team, four-conference setup with the teams spread out so that, historically speaking, they should stand the best chance of being equally competitive top to bottom.

First Conference

First Division
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
Florida Gators
Kansas State Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan Wolverines
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Washington State Cougars

Second Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Georgia Bulldogs
Maryland Terrapins
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Wisconsin Badgers

Second Conference
 
First Division
Air Force Falcons
California Golden Bears
Connecticut Huskies
LSU Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers
Utah Utes

Second Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ole Miss Rebels
Penn State Nittany Lions
Stanford Cardinal
Texas A&M Aggies
Washington Huskies

Third Conference
 
First Division
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Missouri Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
UCLA Bruins

Second Division
BYU Cougars
Iowa Hawkeyes
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Hurricanes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange

Fourth Conference
 
First Division
Arizona Wildcats
Auburn Tigers
Boston College Eagles
Kentucky Wildcats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
USC Trojans

Second Division
Fresno State Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Minnesota Golden Gophers
South Florida Bulls
Texas Longhorns
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers

Your analysis? We'd love to hear what you think.

1978 Final Rankings

In the off-season, we will be running our computer analysis of each of the previous seasons of college football moving backward through time as far as it makes sense to do so. Here are the final rankings from 1978:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 1.1
2. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) - 2.3
3. USC Trojans (12-1) - 3.3
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 4.0
5. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.7
6. Clemson Tigers (11-1) - 6.3
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 8.1
8. Ball State Cardinals (10-1) - 8.3
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 8.5
10. Michigan State Spartans (8-3) - 9.0
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2-1) - 10.9
12. Texas Longhorns (9-3) - 13.1
13. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 14.2
14. Stanford Cardinal (8-4) - 15.5
15. Purdue Boilermakers (9-2-1) - 15.7
16. Central Michigan Chippewas (9-2) - 15.8
17. Maryland Terrapins (9-3) - 16.4
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) - 17.7
19. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2-1) - 19.1
20. Washington Huskies (7-4) - 19.2
21. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 21.5
22. North Texas Mean Green (9-2) - 22.2
23. Missouri Tigers (8-4) - 22.6
24. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - 24.0
25. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 25.2
26. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-4-1) - 26.4
27. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 26.6
28. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-2) - 26.7
29. BYU Cougars (9-4) - 31.0
(tie) Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 31.0
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 31.3
32. UCLA Bruins (8-3-1) - 31.8
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-5) - 33.6
34. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 33.9
35. SMU Mustangs (4-6-1) - 36.6
36. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 36.9
37. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 37.6
38. Utah Utes (8-3) - 38.2
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) - 38.7
40. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-5-1) - 40.4
41. Miami University RedHawks (8-2-1) - 40.9
42. Yale Bulldogs (5-2-2) - 42.6
43. Temple Owls (7-3-1) - 42.9
44. Florida Gators (4-7) - 43.5
45. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-4) - 43.9
46. Furman Paladins (8-3) - 44.4
47. Utah State Aggies (7-4) - 49.1
48. Arizona Wildcats (5-6) - 49.4
49. Auburn Tigers (6-4-1) - 50.4
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5) - 50.7
51. Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs (7-3-1) - 50.9
52. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 51.1
53. Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) - 51.7
54. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 52.5
55. New Mexico Lobos (7-5) - 54.7
56. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-4) - 57.8
57. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 57.9
58. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 58.6
59. McNeese State Cowboys (7-4) - 59.6
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 60.6
61. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-6) - 62.0
62. Tennessee Volunteers (5-5-1) - 62.6
63. Colorado Buffaloes (6-5) - 63.1
64. Miami Hurricanes (6-5) - 63.2
65. Cornell Big Red (5-3-1) - 63.4
66. Baylor Bears (3-8) - 63.8
67. Western Michigan Broncos (7-4) - 66.2
68. UNLV Rebels (7-4) - 67.7
69. Dartmouth Big Green (6-3) - 68.2
70. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6-1) - 70.1
71. Texas-Arlington Mavericks (5-6) - 70.7
72. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 71.7
73. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-4-1) - 72.8
74. Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) - 74.1
75. Hawaii Warriors (6-5) - 74.2
76. William & Mary Tribe (5-5-1) - 76.0
77. Western Carolina Catamounts (6-5) - 76.7
78. Indiana Hoosiers (4-7) - 77.6
79. Washington State Cougars (3-7-1) - 79.4
80. Citadel Bulldogs (5-6) - 80.1
81. Holy Cross Crusaders (7-4) - 80.2
82. Brown Bears (6-3) - 81.4
83. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4-2) - 84.3
84. Memphis Tigers (4-7) - 84.5
85. Colorado State Rams (5-6) - 86.1
86. New Mexico State Aggies (6-5) - 86.4
87. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 87.2
88. Harvard Crimson (4-4-1) - 88.7
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-7) - 89.1
90. Oregon Ducks (2-9) - 89.4
91. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 89.7
92. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-7) - 91.3
93. Villanova Wildcats (5-6) - 91.9
94. San Diego State Aztecs (4-7) - 95.3
95. Richmond Spiders (3-8) - 95.7
96. Princeton Tigers (2-5-2) - 96.7
97. Kansas State Wildcats (4-7) - 97.3
98. Tulane Green Wave (4-7) - 98.7
99. Southern Illinois Salukis (7-4) - 98.9
100. Oregon State Beavers (3-7-1) - 99.7
101. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-6) - 100.6
102. Colgate Raiders (3-8) - 100.8
103. Columbia Lions (3-5-1) - 102.3
104. Northwestern State Demons (5-6) - 105.6
105. Long Beach State 49ers (5-6) - 105.8
106. Pennsylvania Relays (2-6-1) - 106.6
107. Drake Bulldogs (4-7) - 106.7
108. Cal State Fullerton Titans (5-7) - 108.1
(tie) Syracuse Orange (3-8) - 108.1
110. Pacific Tigers (4-8) - 108.6
111. Wichita State Shockers (4-7) - 110.4
112. West Texas A&M Buffaloes (3-8) - 110.6
113. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-8) - 113.8
114. Rice Owls (2-9) - 114.3
115. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-6) - 115.5
116. VMI Keydets (3-8) - 116.3
117. TCU Horned Frogs (2-9) - 119.6
118. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-9) - 120.0
119. Army Black Knights (4-6-1) - 120.6
120. Lamar Cardinals (2-8-1) - 121.7
121. Kansas Jayhawks (1-10) - 122.4
122. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-10) - 122.9
123. Indiana State Sycamores (3-8) - 123.5
124. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-7) - 123.6
125. Virginia Cavaliers (2-9) - 124.7
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-8) - 124.9
127. Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-7) - 127.1
128. Ohio Bobcats (3-8) - 127.4
129. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-9) - 130.3
130. Marshall Thundering Herd (1-10) - 130.6
131. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-8-2) - 132.3
132. Toledo Rockets (2-9) - 132.8
133. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 133.5
134. Air Force Falcons (3-8) - 134.5
135. Illinois State Redbirds (2-9) - 135.8
136. Boston College Eagles (0-11) - 137.2
137. UTEP Miners (1-11) - 137.3
138. Northwestern Wildcats (0-10-1) - 139.0
 
Special acknowledgement and thanks to James Howell who provided the game score data used in this analysis on his website at http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/history/howell/

Expansion Part 2

If four superconferences of 16 teams each is the ideal - leading to a potential 4-team playoff between the champions, then why not include the 64 best teams in these four superconferences? Here's a potential four-conference/eight-division alignment involving the 64 most deserving teams according to the same analysis of the past 40 years used in our previous post about expansion:

Western Conference

North Division
Boise State Broncos
California Golden Bears
Fresno State Bulldogs
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars

South Division
Air Force Falcons
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BYU Cougars
Colorado Buffaloes
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes

Midwest Conference

North Division
Arkansas Razorbacks
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
Missouri Tigers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys

South Division
LSU Tigers
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders

Southeastern Conference

North Division
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers

South Division
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
South Florida Bulls

Northeastern Conference

West Division
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers

East Division
Boston College Eagles
Cincinnati Bearcats
Connecticut Huskies
Maryland Terrapins
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange

Not perfect - there are a couple of long-standing rivalries that get split up. We only took the 64 most consistently good teams and then used geography as our main determinant in alignment. But still fun. And not going to happen. Instead, teams like Baylor and Duke will get a payday without ever having to consistently field a good football team and other, more deserving teams will be left on the outside without a chance to win a national championship or receive an automatic bid to a high-paying bowl despite having one or two losses. Notice that the Western Conference is just the PAC-10 plus BYU, Utah, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force and Colorado. Why does this expansion actually make more sense to us than adding the state of Texas? Which is why our alignment will never actually happen.

Expansion Evaluation Data

Here are the evaluation results we used in selecting the teams to include in our pair of monster conferences so you can see how close your team is to being included or left out:

1. Florida Gators 0.905931041
2. Ohio State Buckeyes 0.892636285
3. Florida State Seminoles 0.852947919
4. USC Trojans 0.852537062
5. Texas Longhorns 0.849951634
6. Oklahoma Sooners 0.848196785
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.842848364
8. Georgia Bulldogs 0.821654624
9. Alabama Crimson Tide 0.820802826
10. Penn State Nittany Lions 0.818755745
11. Miami Hurricanes 0.81676501
12. Virginia Tech Hokies 0.805409853
13. Auburn Tigers 0.787883297
14. Tennessee Volunteers 0.786367364
15. LSU Tigers 0.780463039
16. Michigan Wolverines 0.773107126
17. Boise State Broncos 0.744543101
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.731091308
19. Clemson Tigers 0.728839575
20. Oregon Ducks 0.727037582
21. West Virginia Mountaineers 0.726474885
22. BYU Cougars 0.719570079
23. Arkansas Razorbacks 0.707752016
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders 0.697911196
25. Wisconsin Badgers 0.673260343
26. Texas A&M Aggies 0.669048834
27. Iowa Hawkeyes 0.667959813
28. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.667032088
29. Boston College Eagles 0.66690124
30. UCLA Bruins 0.661575848
31. Utah Utes 0.646091488
32. Arizona State Sun Devils 0.63260917
33. Michigan State Spartans 0.626786766
34. California Golden Bears 0.620927961
35. South Carolina Gamecocks 0.616879167
36. Arizona Wildcats 0.608733563
37. South Florida Bulls 0.605504218
38. Pittsburgh Panthers 0.602646144
39. Washington Huskies 0.592704956
40. Colorado Buffaloes 0.590433831
41. TCU Horned Frogs 0.590299938
42. Ole Miss Rebels 0.589946483
43. Oklahoma State Cowboys 0.587378628
44. Virginia Cavaliers 0.584549717
45. North Carolina Tar Heels 0.575552991
46. Missouri Tigers 0.565563792
47. Purdue Boilermakers 0.564469101
48. Kansas State Wildcats 0.56429574
49. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 0.561674345
50. Air Force Falcons 0.558560387
51. NC State Wolfpack 0.551447176
52. Oregon State Beavers 0.550938604
53. Fresno State Bulldogs 0.544720076
54. Louisville Cardinals 0.53992107
55. Stanford Cardinal 0.538924491
56. Maryland Terrapins 0.536224647
57. Cincinnati Bearcats 0.520325159
58. Kansas Jayhawks 0.513312984
59. Syracuse Orange 0.510129941
60. Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.493540071
61. Kentucky Wildcats 0.492849648
62. Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.48225759
63. Connecticut Huskies 0.479001581
64. Washington State Cougars 0.475402398
65. ECU Pirates 0.467097585
66. Houston Cougars 0.455989606
67. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.454497177
68. Marshall Thundering Herd 0.452625312
69. Illinois Fighting Illini 0.452464541
70. Hawaii Warriors 0.449344821
71. Troy Trojans 0.441616559
72. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.441441707
73. Bowling Green Falcons 0.440901294
74. Colorado State Rams 0.427862429
75. Toledo Rockets 0.406903955
76. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 0.404108017
77. Northwestern Wildcats 0.400706851
78. UCF Knights 0.396228835
79. Nevada Wolf Pack 0.390695476
80. Navy Midshipmen 0.390046895
81. Miami University RedHawks 0.385402827
82. Central Michigan Chippewas 0.379305033
83. Wyoming Cowboys 0.376961332
84. Baylor Bears 0.375512248
85. Iowa State Cyclones 0.365165493
86. San Diego State Aztecs 0.358024954
87. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0.352480659
88. Indiana Hoosiers 0.349555905
89. New Mexico Lobos 0.34495049
90. Western Michigan Broncos 0.341444768
91. Northern Illinois Huskies 0.340245672
92. Memphis Tigers 0.335795082
93. Vanderbilt Commodores 0.324652844
94. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0.316678682
95. Ball State Cardinals 0.308678924
96. UAB Blazers 0.282700656
97. SMU Mustangs 0.275653668
98. Rice Owls 0.271264163
99. San Jose State Spartans 0.269247726
100. Florida Atlantic Owls 0.26767053
101. Duke Blue Devils 0.249064727
102. Ohio Bobcats 0.248993533
103. UTEP Miners 0.248226137
104. Tulane Green Wave 0.239776202
105. UNLV Rebels 0.232534482
106. Temple Owls 0.229495739
107. Akron Zips 0.201891705
108. Utah State Aggies 0.201512714
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 0.198665574
110. Army Black Knights 0.184776418
111. North Texas Mean Green 0.169217433
112. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 0.165332886
113. Arkansas State Red Wolves 0.162968616
114. Idaho Vandals 0.148346236
115. Kent State Golden Flashes 0.138035992
116. Buffalo Bulls 0.135089242
117. Eastern Michigan Eagles 0.129503009
118. New Mexico State Aggies 0.124368478
119. FIU Golden Panthers 0.090246522