The SEC has positioned itself well above the other conferences early in 2018. In our Week 5 analysis, the top four teams all come from the SEC, meaning five weeks in, they all have had better success than any other teams in the country. That would make quite a college football playoff. Of course, there is a lot of football left to go. Here are the rankings according to our analysis through week five:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) - 1.5
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) - 2.6
3. LSU Tigers (5-0) - 2.8
4. Kentucky Wildcats (5-0) - 4.2
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) - 5.6
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) - 6.6
7. Clemson Tigers (5-0) - 6.8
8. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) - 7.4
9. UCF Knights (4-0) - 9.0
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) - 10.1
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1) - 10.3
12. NC State Wolfpack (4-0) - 13.5
13. Washington Huskies (4-1) - 14.2
14. Syracuse Orange (4-1) - 14.8
15. Miami Hurricanes (4-1) - 16.0
16. Auburn Tigers (4-1) - 16.9
17. Michigan Wolverines (4-1) - 17.4
18. Oregon Ducks (4-1) - 20.4
19. Duke Blue Devils (4-1) - 21.1
20. Florida Gators (4-1) - 21.3
21. Army Black Knights (3-2) - 22.0
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) - 22.3
23. North Texas Mean Green (4-1) - 22.6
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) - 24.1
25. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 25.9
26. Stanford Cardinal (4-1) - 26.0
27. Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-1) - 27.1
28. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) - 27.2
29. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2) - 29.4
30. Colorado Buffaloes (4-0) - 30.1
31. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) - 30.4
32. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2) - 30.7
33. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1) - 31.2
34. Boise State Broncos (3-1) - 33.9
35. Texas Longhorns (4-1) - 34.0
36. Washington State Cougars (4-1) - 36.1
37. Indiana Hoosiers (4-1) - 36.4
38. Ole Miss Rebels (3-2) - 39.3
39. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 40.6
40. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 40.8
41. Virginia Cavaliers (3-2) - 43.0
42. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 43.4
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 43.7
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2) - 43.8
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.1
46. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.6
47. Hawaii Warriors (5-1) - 45.8
48. Boston College Eagles (4-1) - 47.5
49. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-2) - 47.6
50. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 48.7
51. Buffalo Bulls (4-1) - 50.3
52. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-1) - 51.0
53. Baylor Bears (3-2) - 51.7
54. Georgia Southern Eagles (3-1) - 52.6
55. USC Trojans (3-2) - 54.7
56. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) - 55.5
57. Troy Trojans (4-1) - 57.3
58. TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) - 57.5
59. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2) - 57.9
60. Purdue Boilermakers (2-3) - 59.8
61. FIU Golden Panthers (3-2) - 61.0
62. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-2) - 62.2
63. BYU Cougars (3-2) - 62.3
64. Memphis Tigers (3-2) - 65.4
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) - 66.3
(tie) Liberty Flames (2-2) - 66.3
67. Utah Utes (2-2) - 67.2
68. Western Michigan Broncos (3-2) - 67.8
69. Iowa State Cyclones (1-3) - 69.5
70. UAB Blazers (3-1) - 70.6
71. California Golden Bears (3-1) - 70.9
72. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 71.8
73. Tulane Green Wave (2-3) - 71.9
74. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-2) - 73.2
75. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-3) - 76.0
76. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
77. Toledo Rockets (2-2) - 79.5
78. Northwestern Wildcats (1-3) - 79.7
79. Ohio Bobcats (2-2) - 80.1
80. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-3) - 81.0
81. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-1) - 81.5
82. Arizona Wildcats (2-3) - 81.6
83. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-2) - 82.4
84. New Mexico Lobos (2-2) - 82.6
85. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 83.2
86. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 84.6
87. Temple Owls (2-3) - 85.4
88. Florida State Seminoles (3-2) - 86.8
89. Kansas State Wildcats (2-3) - 89.3
90. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-3) - 90.9
91. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3) - 91.9
92. UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 92.3
93. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-4) - 93.4
94. Air Force Falcons (1-3) - 94.6
95. Tennessee Volunteers (2-3) - 95.2
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2) - 97.8
97. Kansas Jayhawks (2-3) - 99.0
98. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-2) - 99.3
99. Ball State Cardinals (2-3) - 100.1
(tie) ECU Pirates (2-2) - 100.1
101. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-3) - 101.6
102. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-4) - 101.7
103. SMU Mustangs (2-3) - 102.3
104. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-3) - 102.5
105. Miami University RedHawks (1-4) - 103.3
106. Louisville Cardinals (2-3) - 104.0
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 106.9
108. South Alabama Jaguars (1-4) - 107.8
109. Georgia State Panthers (2-3) - 109.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-4) - 110.5
111. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-4) - 110.8
112. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-3) - 111.2
113. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-4) - 111.6
114. Wyoming Cowboys (2-3) - 112.3
115. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-4) - 114.3
116. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-3) - 115.0
117. Charlotte 49ers (2-3) - 115.6
118. UCLA Bruins (0-4) - 117.6
119. Oregon State Beavers (1-4) - 118.0
120. UTSA Roadrunners (2-3) - 119.2
121. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-4) - 121.5
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-4) - 122.1
123. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 123.7
124. Rice Owls (1-4) - 124.0
125. San Jose State Spartans (0-4) - 125.1
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.9
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.2
128. Bowling Green Falcons (1-4) - 126.3
129. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-4) - 127.3
130. UTEP Miners (0-5) - 129.3
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Monday, September 24, 2018
2018 College Football Rankings - Week 4
Welcome to a new year of Baggaley NCAA Football Rankings. We're four weeks into the season, so we have enough data to begin to rank the teams with a reasonable measure of accuracy. Remember that these rankings are only a measure of what each team's performance has shown in the games they have played so far this season, and that the value of specific wins or losses is independent of the names on the teams, but only based on how those teams have performed in their other games. Unlike what happens with polls (especially those with preseason rankings), all teams begin the season in our analysis on exactly equal footing. What a team has done in any previous season has no bearing on the analysis for this year All that matters is the results (win or loss and final score) of the games that have been played this season.
As a result, there are teams who might be considered "better" teams who have not demonstrated such this season so far, which could be a result of the teams they have played in their schedule up to this point, and other teams who might not be generally considered as good as other teams who have actually had a great deal more success so far this season than other name teams. The result of the games - and the unbiased analysis that comes from those results - are what they are.
Here are our first rankings of the 2018 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) - 1.0
2. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) - 2.1
3. Duke Blue Devils (4-0) - 4.1
4. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) - 4.4
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) - 5.7
6. Clemson Tigers (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) - 7.2
9. LSU Tigers (4-0) - 8.4
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) - 10.8
11. Syracuse Orange (4-0) - 11.1
12. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) - 12.4
13. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 14.6
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) - 15.2
15. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) - 15.6
16. UCF Knights (3-0) - 15.8
17. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) - 17.3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) - 17.8
19. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) - 19.2
20. Buffalo Bulls (4-0) - 19.8
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) - 22.3
22. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) - 23.2
23. Baylor Bears (3-1) - 23.3
24. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) - 24.8
25. Auburn Tigers (3-1) - 26.0
26. Florida Gators (3-1) - 26.7
27. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) - 27.3
28. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) - 29.8
(tie) Texas Longhorns (3-1) - 29.8
30. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) - 31.9
31. Washington Huskies (3-1) - 33.2
32. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 33.3
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) - 33.6
34. Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 34.7
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) - 35.3
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-1) - 35.3
37. Army Black Knights (2-2) - 35.7
38. Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) - 37.0
39. Indiana Hoosiers (3-1) - 38.0
40. BYU Cougars (3-1) - 39.3
41. Hawaii Warriors (4-1) - 40.7
42. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 41.5
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 42.5
44. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) - 42.6
45. California Golden Bears (3-0) - 43.3
46. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 44.6
47. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.0
48. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.8
49. Memphis Tigers (3-1) - 46.6
50. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) - 49.2
51. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) - 50.1
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 50.9
53. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-1) - 53.2
54. Boise State Broncos (2-1) - 53.3
55. USC Trojans (2-2) - 55.4
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) - 55.4
57. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-2) - 58.4
58. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-1) - 59.1
59. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2) - 59.2
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1) - 60.8
61. Boston College Eagles (3-1) - 61.5
62. TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) - 62.1
63. New Mexico Lobos (2-1) - 63.0
64. Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) - 65.2
65. FIU Golden Panthers (2-2) - 65.4
66. Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) - 66.0
67. Toledo Rockets (2-1) - 66.8
68. Iowa State Cyclones (1-2) - 68.2
69. Arizona Wildcats (2-2) - 69.7
70. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 69.8
71. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-1) - 71.5
(tie) Utah Utes (2-1) - 71.5
73. Western Michigan Broncos (2-2) - 73.4
74. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 75.7
(tie) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-1) - 75.7
76. Temple Owls (2-2) - 76.8
77. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
78. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 78.6
79. Troy Trojans (3-1) - 79.2
80. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2) - 79.5
81. UAB Blazers (2-1) - 83.7
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-2) - 83.7
83. Liberty Flames (1-2) - 84.5
84. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1) - 84.6
85. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) - 84.9
86. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-3) - 85.4
87. Air Force Falcons (1-2) - 85.5
88. Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) - 88.2
89. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-2) - 89.1
90. Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) - 90.0
91. Ohio Bobcats (1-2) - 90.1
92. Tennessee Volunteers (2-2) - 90.9
(tie) UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 90.9
94. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-2) - 92.3
95. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) - 96.6
96. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-2) - 96.9
97. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-3) - 97.2
98. Louisville Cardinals (2-2) - 98.1
99. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 98.9
100. ECU Pirates (1-2) - 99.9
101. Tulane Green Wave (1-3) - 100.3
102. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) - 102.2
103. South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) - 104.6
104. Miami University RedHawks (1-3) - 104.9
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (2-2) - 104.9
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (2-2) - 104.9
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 107.4
108. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3) - 107.6
109. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) - 108.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-3) - 108.9
111. Charlotte 49ers (2-2) - 109.4
112. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-3) - 109.5
113. SMU Mustangs (1-3) - 111.7
114. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) - 112.8
115. Oregon State Beavers (1-3) - 113.4
116. UCLA Bruins (0-3) - 116.5
117. Ball State Cardinals (1-3) - 117.5
118. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-3) - 117.7
119. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) - 117.8
120. Rice Owls (1-3) - 118.9
121. UTSA Roadrunners (1-3) - 120.7
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-3) - 121.1
123. Bowling Green Falcons (1-3) - 122.9
124. Georgia State Panthers (1-3) - 123.9
125. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 124.2
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.4
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.4
128. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) - 127.6
129. San Jose State Spartans (0-3) - 128.5
130. UTEP Miners (0-4) - 129.4
As a result, there are teams who might be considered "better" teams who have not demonstrated such this season so far, which could be a result of the teams they have played in their schedule up to this point, and other teams who might not be generally considered as good as other teams who have actually had a great deal more success so far this season than other name teams. The result of the games - and the unbiased analysis that comes from those results - are what they are.
Here are our first rankings of the 2018 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) - 1.0
2. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) - 2.1
3. Duke Blue Devils (4-0) - 4.1
4. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) - 4.4
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) - 5.7
6. Clemson Tigers (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) - 7.2
9. LSU Tigers (4-0) - 8.4
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) - 10.8
11. Syracuse Orange (4-0) - 11.1
12. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) - 12.4
13. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 14.6
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) - 15.2
15. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) - 15.6
16. UCF Knights (3-0) - 15.8
17. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) - 17.3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) - 17.8
19. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) - 19.2
20. Buffalo Bulls (4-0) - 19.8
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) - 22.3
22. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) - 23.2
23. Baylor Bears (3-1) - 23.3
24. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) - 24.8
25. Auburn Tigers (3-1) - 26.0
26. Florida Gators (3-1) - 26.7
27. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) - 27.3
28. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) - 29.8
(tie) Texas Longhorns (3-1) - 29.8
30. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) - 31.9
31. Washington Huskies (3-1) - 33.2
32. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 33.3
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) - 33.6
34. Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 34.7
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) - 35.3
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-1) - 35.3
37. Army Black Knights (2-2) - 35.7
38. Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) - 37.0
39. Indiana Hoosiers (3-1) - 38.0
40. BYU Cougars (3-1) - 39.3
41. Hawaii Warriors (4-1) - 40.7
42. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 41.5
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 42.5
44. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) - 42.6
45. California Golden Bears (3-0) - 43.3
46. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 44.6
47. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.0
48. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.8
49. Memphis Tigers (3-1) - 46.6
50. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) - 49.2
51. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) - 50.1
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 50.9
53. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-1) - 53.2
54. Boise State Broncos (2-1) - 53.3
55. USC Trojans (2-2) - 55.4
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) - 55.4
57. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-2) - 58.4
58. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-1) - 59.1
59. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2) - 59.2
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1) - 60.8
61. Boston College Eagles (3-1) - 61.5
62. TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) - 62.1
63. New Mexico Lobos (2-1) - 63.0
64. Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) - 65.2
65. FIU Golden Panthers (2-2) - 65.4
66. Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) - 66.0
67. Toledo Rockets (2-1) - 66.8
68. Iowa State Cyclones (1-2) - 68.2
69. Arizona Wildcats (2-2) - 69.7
70. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 69.8
71. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-1) - 71.5
(tie) Utah Utes (2-1) - 71.5
73. Western Michigan Broncos (2-2) - 73.4
74. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 75.7
(tie) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-1) - 75.7
76. Temple Owls (2-2) - 76.8
77. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
78. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 78.6
79. Troy Trojans (3-1) - 79.2
80. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2) - 79.5
81. UAB Blazers (2-1) - 83.7
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-2) - 83.7
83. Liberty Flames (1-2) - 84.5
84. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1) - 84.6
85. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) - 84.9
86. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-3) - 85.4
87. Air Force Falcons (1-2) - 85.5
88. Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) - 88.2
89. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-2) - 89.1
90. Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) - 90.0
91. Ohio Bobcats (1-2) - 90.1
92. Tennessee Volunteers (2-2) - 90.9
(tie) UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 90.9
94. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-2) - 92.3
95. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) - 96.6
96. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-2) - 96.9
97. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-3) - 97.2
98. Louisville Cardinals (2-2) - 98.1
99. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 98.9
100. ECU Pirates (1-2) - 99.9
101. Tulane Green Wave (1-3) - 100.3
102. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) - 102.2
103. South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) - 104.6
104. Miami University RedHawks (1-3) - 104.9
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (2-2) - 104.9
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (2-2) - 104.9
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 107.4
108. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3) - 107.6
109. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) - 108.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-3) - 108.9
111. Charlotte 49ers (2-2) - 109.4
112. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-3) - 109.5
113. SMU Mustangs (1-3) - 111.7
114. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) - 112.8
115. Oregon State Beavers (1-3) - 113.4
116. UCLA Bruins (0-3) - 116.5
117. Ball State Cardinals (1-3) - 117.5
118. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-3) - 117.7
119. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) - 117.8
120. Rice Owls (1-3) - 118.9
121. UTSA Roadrunners (1-3) - 120.7
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-3) - 121.1
123. Bowling Green Falcons (1-3) - 122.9
124. Georgia State Panthers (1-3) - 123.9
125. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 124.2
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.4
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.4
128. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) - 127.6
129. San Jose State Spartans (0-3) - 128.5
130. UTEP Miners (0-4) - 129.4
Monday, August 20, 2018
Updated Program Rankings - NCAA College Football
We are proud to announce our updated program rankings for FBS College Football programs entering the 2018 season. These rankings are based on an analysis of a combination of recent and historic success. The level of success a program has had in any given recent year carries more weight in the rating system over a historical one, but it is most important for a program to have consistent winning over the entirety of the program's existence as an FBS program (or whatever the highest division of college football was in each year) in order to score well. To give you an idea of the relative weight of a given year in the overall scoring for a program, last year's results (2017) carried 4.95% of the total score for a program that began playing football over a century ago, while the 1968 season carried 0.72% of the total score. 106 years of data are included in this analysis, but only the years a program competed in the top division of college football are included for any given team and other years are not counted against them, so a team like Boise State, which only began competing at the top division of college football in 1996, is only evaluated on its relative success since then.
It has been three years since we posted program ratings, but you can compare how various programs did in this round of analysis with how they did three years ago by looking at our previous program rankings here: http://baggaleyfootball.blogspot.com/2015/09/were-back-program-ratings.html
Ohio State still has the top ranked overall football program in the country, but the difference between Ohio State and #2 Alabama has shrunk with Alabama's recent domination of the college football playoffs. Ohio State has held the top rating in our program rankings since the 2006 season. Prior to that, the highest ranking was held by Michigan, which is now #7 on the list. Other programs that have held the #1 ranking in the last 50 years include Nebraska (now #13), Notre Dame (now #6), Alabama, and Oklahoma (now #3). #4 USC has not held the #1 ranking since 1932, although the program had the second highest rating as recently as 2009. #5 Florida State has never held the top program rating, since they began competing as a top division football program in 1954. The highest the Seminoles have ever climbed is #3 in the rankings from 2003 to 2005.
Here's the entire list of current program rankings:
It has been three years since we posted program ratings, but you can compare how various programs did in this round of analysis with how they did three years ago by looking at our previous program rankings here: http://baggaleyfootball.blogspot.com/2015/09/were-back-program-ratings.html
Ohio State still has the top ranked overall football program in the country, but the difference between Ohio State and #2 Alabama has shrunk with Alabama's recent domination of the college football playoffs. Ohio State has held the top rating in our program rankings since the 2006 season. Prior to that, the highest ranking was held by Michigan, which is now #7 on the list. Other programs that have held the #1 ranking in the last 50 years include Nebraska (now #13), Notre Dame (now #6), Alabama, and Oklahoma (now #3). #4 USC has not held the #1 ranking since 1932, although the program had the second highest rating as recently as 2009. #5 Florida State has never held the top program rating, since they began competing as a top division football program in 1954. The highest the Seminoles have ever climbed is #3 in the rankings from 2003 to 2005.
Here's the entire list of current program rankings:
1. Ohio
State Buckeyes (0.874945156)
2. Alabama
Crimson Tide (0.870742028)
3. Oklahoma
Sooners (0.849537669)
4. USC
Trojans (0.831556081)
5. Florida
State Seminoles (0.824773236)
6. Notre
Dame Fighting Irish (0.802029203)
7. Michigan
Wolverines (0.79907506)
8. Georgia
Bulldogs (0.797245526)
9. LSU
Tigers (0.792399358)
10. Penn
State Nittany Lions (0.783277889)
11. Florida
Gators (0.776474963)
12. Texas
Longhorns (0.771252758)
13. Nebraska
Cornhuskers (0.769325765)
14. Auburn
Tigers (0.766001987)
15.
Tennessee Volunteers (0.751118646)
16. Miami
Hurricanes (0.746467526)
17. Boise
State Broncos (0.738972527)
18. Clemson
Tigers (0.727829099)
19. Texas
A&M Aggies (0.693322033)
20. Michigan
State Spartans (0.691326717)
21. Arkansas
Razorbacks (0.687194456)
22.
Washington Huskies (0.675791643)
23. UCLA
Bruins (0.674771909)
24.
Wisconsin Badgers (0.672806426)
25. Oregon
Ducks (0.67101069)
26. Stanford
Cardinal (0.665404283)
27. Virginia
Tech Hokies (0.665361671)
28. Georgia
Tech Yellow Jackets (0.650742512)
29. West
Virginia Mountaineers (0.648857951)
30. Arizona
State Sun Devils (0.644950826)
31. Ole Miss
Rebels (0.625720396)
32. Iowa
Hawkeyes (0.614300012)
33. Oklahoma
State Cowboys (0.613422076)
34. BYU
Cougars (0.60352873)
35. South
Carolina Gamecocks (0.59718217)
36. Utah
Utes (0.597146955)
37. Missouri
Tigers (0.591573038)
38.
Pittsburgh Panthers (0.590499439)
39. Texas
Tech Red Raiders (0.590496076)
40.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (0.584523979)
41. North
Carolina Tar Heels (0.582362537)
42. Boston
College Eagles (0.579406103)
43. TCU
Horned Frogs (0.57777117)
44. Arizona
Wildcats (0.567631548)
45.
Louisville Cardinals (0.559714522)
46. NC State
Wolfpack (0.559564112)
47. Colorado
Buffaloes (0.548526594)
48. Houston
Cougars (0.547417918)
49.
California Golden Bears (0.54732862)
50. South
Florida Bulls (0.54460472)
51. Syracuse
Orange (0.533293444)
52. Kansas
State Wildcats (0.528774815)
53.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (0.523909437)
54.
Appalachian State Mountaineers (0.517269204)
55. Purdue Boilermakers
(0.516046057)
56. Baylor
Bears (0.513221792)
57. Southern
Miss Golden Eagles (0.510133515)
58. San
Diego State Aztecs (0.509648822)
59. Maryland
Terrapins (0.509442234)
60. Air
Force Falcons (0.508851358)
61. Navy
Midshipmen (0.493280773)
62. Toledo
Rockets (0.492931203)
63. Kentucky
Wildcats (0.488763575)
64. Fresno
State Bulldogs (0.483292394)
65.
Washington State Cougars (0.482647979)
66. UCF
Knights (0.481867503)
67. Virginia
Cavaliers (0.462860493)
68.
Cincinnati Bearcats (0.447373749)
69. Northwestern
Wildcats (0.444588728)
70. Oregon
State Beavers (0.443670137)
71. Illinois
Fighting Illini (0.442955843)
72. Memphis
Tigers (0.442454641)
73. Bowling
Green Falcons (0.440258059)
74. Tulsa
Golden Hurricane (0.438791696)
75. ECU
Pirates (0.437659651)
76.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (0.435763014)
77. Georgia
Southern Eagles (0.428287904)
78. Duke
Blue Devils (0.416965943)
79. Miami
University RedHawks (0.40756377)
80. Troy
Trojans (0.403552346)
81. Rutgers
Scarlet Knights (0.403350558)
82. Colorado
State Rams (0.40227417)
83. Western
Michigan Broncos (0.39901012)
84. Wyoming
Cowboys (0.398064742)
85. Wake
Forest Demon Deacons (0.395423635)
86.
Vanderbilt Commodores (0.394594294)
87. Marshall
Thundering Herd (0.392208124)
88. Iowa
State Cyclones (0.392091044)
89. SMU
Mustangs (0.387631046)
90. Hawaii
Warriors (0.384232892)
91. Indiana
Hoosiers (0.384176174)
92. Kansas
Jayhawks (0.379256355)
93. Northern
Illinois Huskies (0.379147093)
94. Nevada
Wolf Pack (0.378763138)
95. Central
Michigan Chippewas (0.374317361)
96. Temple
Owls (0.363593881)
97. Western
Kentucky Hilltoppers (0.354386927)
98. Utah
State Aggies (0.351451768)
99.
Connecticut Huskies (0.342377411)
100. Army
Black Knights (0.33635048)
101. Ohio
Bobcats (0.328791608)
102. Rice
Owls (0.31831459)
103. UTSA
Roadrunners (0.316098735)
104. Ball
State Cardinals (0.315111821)
105. New
Mexico Lobos (0.310978309)
106. Tulane
Green Wave (0.310721709)
107. Middle
Tennessee Blue Raiders (0.30799522)
108. San
Jose State Spartans (0.303582434)
109.
Arkansas State Red Wolves (0.290981057)
110. Old
Dominion Monarchs (0.2860568)
111. North
Texas Mean Green (0.274389812)
112. Florida
Atlantic Owls (0.269055563)
113. UAB
Blazers (0.254169624)
114. South
Alabama Jaguars (0.253838651)
115.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (0.250449607)
116. UTEP
Miners (0.225645263)
117. UNLV
Rebels (0.220119636)
118. Akron
Zips (0.20933597)
119. Buffalo
Bulls (0.202455904)
120. Kent
State Golden Flashes (0.194002978)
121.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (0.186646203)
122. Idaho
Vandals (0.180058388)
123. FIU
Golden Panthers (0.16532097)
124. Eastern
Michigan Eagles (0.158717549)
125. New
Mexico State Aggies (0.150651828)
126. Texas
State Bobcats (0.146978489)
127. Georgia
State Panthers (0.127572252)
128.
Massachusetts Minutemen (0.100252489)
129.
Charlotte 49ers (0.093666563)
130. Coastal
Carolina Chanticleers (0.085271318)
Friday, August 17, 2018
2017 College Football Final Rankings (Too Late)
Okay, we're late weighing in on the 2017 college football season. 2018 is just about to start. But the results are interesting anyway. If anything, they demonstrate that actual strength of schedule (not just perceived strength of schedule) and head-to-head matchups really matter in our system of analysis.
The biggest question with regard to the 2017 season is how does UCF - the only undefeated team remaining at the end of the year - actually measure up against the other top teams in the country? Is their claim of a national title justified?
In short, no. But we do feel they should have been allowed into the college football playoff. In fact, we think that 2017 was the worst year for the selection committee so far, as we only agreed on two of the four teams in the playoff. Heading into the bowls, here was our Top 25: (Remember this was prior to any bowl games or any of the playoff games.)
1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) - 1.1
2. Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) - 2.8
3. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) - 3.0
4. UCF Knights (12-0) - 4.4
5. Auburn Tigers (10-3) - 4.6
6. Clemson Tigers (12-1) - 5.9
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 6.7
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 8.2
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 8.4
10. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 10.0
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 11.1
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 12.5
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-3) - 12.9
14. USC Trojans (11-2) - 14.8
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 15.2
16. Stanford Cardinal (9-4) - 16.7
17. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 17.6
18. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 19.6
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 20.1
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 21.4
21. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 21.5
22. South Florida Bulls (9-2) - 22.1
23. Michigan State Spartans (9-3) - 22.2
24. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 23.4
25. Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) - 24.9
The biggest question with regard to the 2017 season is how does UCF - the only undefeated team remaining at the end of the year - actually measure up against the other top teams in the country? Is their claim of a national title justified?
In short, no. But we do feel they should have been allowed into the college football playoff. In fact, we think that 2017 was the worst year for the selection committee so far, as we only agreed on two of the four teams in the playoff. Heading into the bowls, here was our Top 25: (Remember this was prior to any bowl games or any of the playoff games.)
1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) - 1.1
2. Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) - 2.8
3. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) - 3.0
4. UCF Knights (12-0) - 4.4
5. Auburn Tigers (10-3) - 4.6
6. Clemson Tigers (12-1) - 5.9
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 6.7
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 8.2
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 8.4
10. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 10.0
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 11.1
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 12.5
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-3) - 12.9
14. USC Trojans (11-2) - 14.8
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 15.2
16. Stanford Cardinal (9-4) - 16.7
17. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 17.6
18. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 19.6
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 20.1
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 21.4
21. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 21.5
22. South Florida Bulls (9-2) - 22.1
23. Michigan State Spartans (9-3) - 22.2
24. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 23.4
25. Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) - 24.9
Notice that when you analyze their resumes (again, we don't make a judgment about which is the better team, but which actually did more during the season), eventual champion, Alabama's claim to inclusion in the playoff was as weak as Clemson's in 2016. In our opinion, Auburn actually had a better claim, even with three losses, to inclusion than Alabama did, but we do feel that UCF should have barely squeaked in. Wisconsin, however, was the team that had the most reason to complain about being left out (even though they lost to Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Their claim is certainly better than Alabama, who didn't even play in a championship game at all (and therefore ended up with one less chance to lose, simply because they actually lost earlier). And, in fact, an analysis of their resume shows that they had had the second best season in the country, up to that point.
An interesting thing we are learning, though, is that inclusion in the College Football Playoff matters, because you are typically playing games against another top team, and your performance in the playoff (combined with the performance of other teams in the bowls) can have a huge impact on the final rankings. UCF's win over Auburn should actually not only not be too surprising - after all we had them ranked ahead of Auburn going into the bowls - but it turns out that, despite arguments that it justifies UCF's claim to their own national championship, UCF did not gain any ground in the rankings once the bowls and playoff are included in the analysis. Mostly this is due to Alabama leapfrogging them because of the additions to their resume made possible by playing (and beating) top notch competition in two games during the playoff.
So, seeing that Alabama entered the playoff ranked #7, was two wins in the playoff enough to actually catapult them to #1 in our full-season analysis? Almost. It was an overtime game after all. Alabama still managed to leap up to #2 in our final rankings, but winning an overtime head-to-head game against the team that had been ranked #1 already wasn't enough to put them ahead of Georgia in our final rankings.
Here are our final rankings for 2017 with Georgia still in the #1 spot, followed by Alabama. Wisconsin fell to #3 despite winning their bowl game, and UCF remains at #4.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (13-2) - 1.3
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) - 2.3
3. Wisconsin Badgers (13-1) - 3.0
4. UCF Knights (13-0) - 4.2
5. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) - 4.5
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) - 6.3
7. Auburn Tigers (10-4) - 7.1
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 7.3
9. Clemson Tigers (12-2) - 9.0
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-3) - 10.3
11. Washington Huskies (10-3) - 10.9
12. TCU Horned Frogs (11-3) - 12.0
13. Miami Hurricanes (10-3) - 13.0
14. LSU Tigers (9-4) - 15.5
15. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 17.3
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 17.6
17. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 17.9
18. USC Trojans (11-3) - 18.1
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-3) - 18.2
20. NC State Wolfpack (9-4) - 19.7
21. Florida Atlantic Owls (11-3) - 22.0
22. Stanford Cardinal (9-5) - 22.5
23. Iowa State Cyclones (8-5) - 23.1
(tie) South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 23.1
25. Northwestern Wildcats (10-3) - 24.1
26. Memphis Tigers (10-3) - 24.8
(tie) Michigan Wolverines (8-5) - 24.8
28. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5) - 28.7
29. Boise State Broncos (11-3) - 28.8
30. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4) - 29.8
31. Louisville Cardinals (8-5) - 30.5
32. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 33.5
33. Troy Trojans (11-2) - 34.2
34. San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) - 34.5
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) - 34.5
36. Texas Longhorns (7-6) - 35.1
37. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4) - 37.8
38. Kansas State Wildcats (8-5) - 39.0
39. Florida State Seminoles (7-6) - 39.8
40. Purdue Boilermakers (7-6) - 40.4
41. Washington State Cougars (9-4) - 41.0
42. Army Black Knights (10-3) - 41.5
43. Duke Blue Devils (7-6) - 43.2
44. Navy Midshipmen (7-6) - 43.7
45. Utah Utes (7-6) - 44.3
46. Oregon Ducks (7-6) - 45.7
47. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-6) - 47.2
48. Toledo Rockets (11-3) - 47.7
49. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-6) - 48.7
50. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-6) - 49.2
51. Houston Cougars (7-5) - 51.8
52. Arizona Wildcats (7-6) - 53.6
53. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-4) - 54.1
54. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 54.6
55. Texas A&M Aggies (7-6) - 55.0
56. Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) - 55.2
57. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 56.0
58. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-7) - 57.3
59. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 60.0
60. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 60.6
61. Missouri Tigers (7-6) - 60.8
62. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-6) - 62.1
63. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7) - 62.4
64. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 65.6
65. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) - 66.3
66. Temple Owls (7-6) - 67.3
67. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 67.5
68. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-7) - 67.8
69. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-5) - 68.1
70. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 70.3
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (9-5) - 70.3
72. Buffalo Bulls (6-6) - 70.4
73. Florida Gators (4-7) - 73.2
74. Virginia Cavaliers (6-7) - 73.4
75. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 76.5
76. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 78.1
77. Tulane Green Wave (5-7) - 78.3
78. Wyoming Cowboys (8-5) - 78.4
79. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 78.7
80. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 79.0
81. Akron Zips (7-7) - 80.9
82. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 81.0
83. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 83.2
84. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 84.1
85. Utah State Aggies (6-7) - 84.5
86. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-8) - 85.4
87. Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5) - 86.7
(tie) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-5) - 86.7
89. UTSA Roadrunners (6-5) - 88.0
90. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 88.6
91. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-6) - 89.5
92. FIU Golden Panthers (8-5) - 90.4
93. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 93.5
94. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-9) - 94.0
95. Tennessee Volunteers (4-8) - 94.7
96. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 94.8
97. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-10) - 97.2
98. UAB Blazers (8-5) - 98.1
99. Miami University RedHawks (5-7) - 98.6
100. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6) - 99.0
101. South Alabama Jaguars (4-8) - 102.5
102. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 103.6
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 104.4
104. Massachusetts Minutemen (4-8) - 104.5
105. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 105.7
106. Georgia State Panthers (7-5) - 107.3
107. Idaho Vandals (4-8) - 108.0
108. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 108.6
109. BYU Cougars (4-9) - 109.1
110. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-7) - 110.4
111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) - 111.4
112. Baylor Bears (1-11) - 111.5
113. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 111.8
114. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 112.4
115. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (5-7) - 112.5
116. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-10) - 113.9
117. Hawaii Warriors (3-9) - 117.7
118. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 118.0
119. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-9) - 119.8
120. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 120.3
121. Ball State Cardinals (2-10) - 120.6
122. Rice Owls (1-11) - 121.1
123. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 123.0
124. Kansas Jayhawks (1-11) - 124.2
125. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-10) - 125.1
126. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-10) - 126.0
127. Oregon State Beavers (1-11) - 126.7
128. San Jose State Spartans (2-11) - 127.2
129. Charlotte 49ers (1-11) - 127.4
130. UTEP Miners (0-12) - 130.7
Thursday, August 16, 2018
2016 College Football Final Rankings
We're a little late with this - well over a year late - but we're back! After running the numbers on the completed 2016 FBS college football season, our analysis confirms the validity of, well, playing it out on the field. When last we left you, we were insisting the Clemson had not done enough to merit their inclusion in the college football playoff for 2016. Of course, Clemson turned around and won their first game in the playoff, then lost a close game to champion Alabama, thereby justifying their inclusion in the playoff. And our analysis? After including all the bowl games, we agree that Clemson justified their inclusion with their performance in the actual playoff. Remember that our analysis does not try to indicate that one team was better than another team (except, of course, on a given day when those teams play head-to-head). It only seeks to show which has demonstrated that they had a better season. Clemson had not had a good enough season, or at least, it had not shown more than several other teams that they were worthy to be included in the "Final Four" of football.
Well, during the actual playoff, they showed plenty. And when all is said and done, they demonstrated through the entirety of their season that they had the second best season of any team in the FBS. Only Alabama had a better season in 2016.
Here are the final rankings as they finally shook out for the 2016 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (14-1) - 1.0
2. Clemson Tigers (14-1) - 2.3
3. Washington Huskies (12-2) - 3.4
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 4.2
5. Western Michigan Broncos (13-1) - 5.6
6. Michigan Wolverines (10-3) - 5.9
7. USC Trojans (10-3) - 6.9
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-3) - 7.8
9. Florida State Seminoles (10-3) - 10.1
(tie) Penn State Nittany Lions (11-3) - 10.1
11. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 10.4
12. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 10.5
13. Miami Hurricanes (9-4) - 13.6
14. Stanford Cardinal (10-3) - 15.6
15. Louisville Cardinals (9-4) - 16.7
16. Colorado Buffaloes (10-4) - 16.9
17. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (11-3) - 17.0
18. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3) - 17.7
19. Florida Gators (9-4) - 19.8
20. Tennessee Volunteers (9-4) - 20.2
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-3) - 20.3
22. Auburn Tigers (8-5) - 20.7
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-4) - 24.1
24. Kansas State Wildcats (9-4) - 25.6
25. South Florida Bulls (11-2) - 26.0
26. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 26.1
27. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 27.1
28. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5) - 28.4
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3) - 29.5
30. Houston Cougars (9-4) - 31.3
31. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 32.0
32. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5) - 33.7
33. Boise State Broncos (10-3) - 34.5
(tie) NC State Wolfpack (7-6) - 34.5
35. Toledo Rockets (9-4) - 34.9
36. Troy Trojans (10-3) - 36.2
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-4) - 36.4
38. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) - 36.8
39. Temple Owls (10-4) - 39.0
40. San Diego State Aztecs (11-3) - 39.3
41. Texas A&M Aggies (8-5) - 39.5
42. Washington State Cougars (8-5) - 41.6
43. BYU Cougars (9-4) - 42.0
44. Utah Utes (9-4) - 42.3
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 45.1
46. Memphis Tigers (8-5) - 46.8
(tie) Navy Midshipmen (9-5) - 46.8
48. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-5) - 47.6
49. Georgia Bulldogs (8-5) - 47.8
50. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 50.0
51. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-6) - 50.8
(tie) Baylor Bears (7-6) - 50.8
53. Old Dominion Monarchs (10-3) - 51.1
54. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-7) - 53.1
55. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 53.7
56. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 56.5
57. Wyoming Cowboys (8-6) - 57.6
58. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-7) - 59.9
59. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-5) - 60.2
60. TCU Horned Frogs (6-7) - 61.0
61. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 62.3
62. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 63.8
63. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 64.2
64. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 65.4
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.6
66. Northwestern Wildcats (7-6) - 66.6
67. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-6) - 66.9
68. Idaho Vandals (9-4) - 67.0
69. UCF Knights (6-7) - 68.5
70. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 69.9
71. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-7) - 70.5
72. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 71.6
73. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 72.2
74. Ohio Bobcats (8-6) - 75.0
75. New Mexico Lobos (9-4) - 75.9
(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (6-7) - 75.9
77. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 76.2
78. Indiana Hoosiers (6-7) - 77.4
79. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) - 79.1
80. Maryland Terrapins (6-7) - 79.2
81. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-7) - 79.6
82. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-6) - 81.0
83. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 81.1
84. South Alabama Jaguars (6-7) - 83.8
85. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) - 84.8
86. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 86.0
(tie) Army Black Knights (8-5) - 86.0
88. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-7) - 87.2
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 88.2
90. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 90.1
91. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-7) - 91.0
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 94.7
93. Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.2
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.3
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (7-7) - 95.3
(tie) Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 95.3
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 95.7
98. Miami University RedHawks (6-7) - 96.7
99. Akron Zips (5-7) - 99.5
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-8) - 99.6
101. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 102.4
102. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 103.3
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 103.9
104. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 105.3
105. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 105.5
106. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 105.6
107. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.4
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 108.0
109. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 109.4
110. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 110.2
111. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 110.5
112. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 111.4
113. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 111.7
114. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 113.2
115. San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 114.7
(tie) UTEP Miners (4-8) - 114.7
117. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 116.0
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.9
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 118.3
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 120.0
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 120.6
122. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 121.7
123. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.8
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.1
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 123.8
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 125.5
127. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 126.8
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 127.7
Well, during the actual playoff, they showed plenty. And when all is said and done, they demonstrated through the entirety of their season that they had the second best season of any team in the FBS. Only Alabama had a better season in 2016.
Here are the final rankings as they finally shook out for the 2016 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (14-1) - 1.0
2. Clemson Tigers (14-1) - 2.3
3. Washington Huskies (12-2) - 3.4
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 4.2
5. Western Michigan Broncos (13-1) - 5.6
6. Michigan Wolverines (10-3) - 5.9
7. USC Trojans (10-3) - 6.9
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-3) - 7.8
9. Florida State Seminoles (10-3) - 10.1
(tie) Penn State Nittany Lions (11-3) - 10.1
11. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 10.4
12. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 10.5
13. Miami Hurricanes (9-4) - 13.6
14. Stanford Cardinal (10-3) - 15.6
15. Louisville Cardinals (9-4) - 16.7
16. Colorado Buffaloes (10-4) - 16.9
17. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (11-3) - 17.0
18. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3) - 17.7
19. Florida Gators (9-4) - 19.8
20. Tennessee Volunteers (9-4) - 20.2
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-3) - 20.3
22. Auburn Tigers (8-5) - 20.7
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-4) - 24.1
24. Kansas State Wildcats (9-4) - 25.6
25. South Florida Bulls (11-2) - 26.0
26. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 26.1
27. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 27.1
28. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5) - 28.4
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3) - 29.5
30. Houston Cougars (9-4) - 31.3
31. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 32.0
32. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5) - 33.7
33. Boise State Broncos (10-3) - 34.5
(tie) NC State Wolfpack (7-6) - 34.5
35. Toledo Rockets (9-4) - 34.9
36. Troy Trojans (10-3) - 36.2
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-4) - 36.4
38. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) - 36.8
39. Temple Owls (10-4) - 39.0
40. San Diego State Aztecs (11-3) - 39.3
41. Texas A&M Aggies (8-5) - 39.5
42. Washington State Cougars (8-5) - 41.6
43. BYU Cougars (9-4) - 42.0
44. Utah Utes (9-4) - 42.3
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 45.1
46. Memphis Tigers (8-5) - 46.8
(tie) Navy Midshipmen (9-5) - 46.8
48. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-5) - 47.6
49. Georgia Bulldogs (8-5) - 47.8
50. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 50.0
51. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-6) - 50.8
(tie) Baylor Bears (7-6) - 50.8
53. Old Dominion Monarchs (10-3) - 51.1
54. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-7) - 53.1
55. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 53.7
56. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 56.5
57. Wyoming Cowboys (8-6) - 57.6
58. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-7) - 59.9
59. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-5) - 60.2
60. TCU Horned Frogs (6-7) - 61.0
61. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 62.3
62. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 63.8
63. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 64.2
64. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 65.4
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.6
66. Northwestern Wildcats (7-6) - 66.6
67. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-6) - 66.9
68. Idaho Vandals (9-4) - 67.0
69. UCF Knights (6-7) - 68.5
70. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 69.9
71. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-7) - 70.5
72. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 71.6
73. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 72.2
74. Ohio Bobcats (8-6) - 75.0
75. New Mexico Lobos (9-4) - 75.9
(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (6-7) - 75.9
77. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 76.2
78. Indiana Hoosiers (6-7) - 77.4
79. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) - 79.1
80. Maryland Terrapins (6-7) - 79.2
81. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-7) - 79.6
82. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-6) - 81.0
83. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 81.1
84. South Alabama Jaguars (6-7) - 83.8
85. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) - 84.8
86. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 86.0
(tie) Army Black Knights (8-5) - 86.0
88. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-7) - 87.2
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 88.2
90. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 90.1
91. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-7) - 91.0
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 94.7
93. Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.2
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.3
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (7-7) - 95.3
(tie) Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 95.3
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 95.7
98. Miami University RedHawks (6-7) - 96.7
99. Akron Zips (5-7) - 99.5
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-8) - 99.6
101. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 102.4
102. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 103.3
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 103.9
104. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 105.3
105. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 105.5
106. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 105.6
107. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.4
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 108.0
109. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 109.4
110. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 110.2
111. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 110.5
112. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 111.4
113. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 111.7
114. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 113.2
115. San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 114.7
(tie) UTEP Miners (4-8) - 114.7
117. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 116.0
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.9
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 118.3
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 120.0
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 120.6
122. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 121.7
123. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.8
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.1
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 123.8
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 125.5
127. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 126.8
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 127.7
Monday, December 5, 2016
2016 College Football Rankings - Week 14
"Wait!" you exclaim. "Western Michigan in the College Football Playoff over Clemson?" Our unbiased computer analysis says, "Yes. Clemson lost to Pittsburgh, who we have ranked at #28 (and only that high because of its victory over Clemson) while Western Michigan didn't lose to anyone. In fact, we don't even have Clemson on the edge of the playoffs. We have them at #7, behind 3-loss USC. Their performance this year was that weak. And besides, how less reasonable is this than ranking four-loss Auburn higher than ANY undefeated team like the college football playoff committee did?"
There's still one game left in the regular season (Army-Navy), so there might be some changes - the outcome of any game impacts to some degree every team in FBS because of the way we do our analysis - but our rankings this week are pretty close to what they will be heading into bowl season.
Here's what we have:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) - 1.0
2. Washington Huskies (12-1) - 2.9
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 3.3
4. Western Michigan Broncos (13-0) - 3.4
5. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.6
6. USC Trojans (9-3) - 6.7
7. Clemson Tigers (12-1) - 7.0
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 7.5
9. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) - 9.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 10.1
11. Colorado Buffaloes (10-3) - 10.4
12. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 12.8
13. Louisville Cardinals (9-3) - 13.6
14. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 14.6
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 15.6
16. Miami Hurricanes (8-4) - 16.8
17. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 18.5
18. Auburn Tigers (8-4) - 18.8
19. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) - 19.3
20. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 20.7
21. South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 21.0
22. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-3) - 21.8
23. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) - 23.2
24. Temple Owls (10-3) - 24.2
25. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 26.5
26. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2) - 26.6
27. Florida Gators (8-4) - 27.2
28. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 27.8
29. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 29.8
30. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4) - 30.5
31. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 32.9
32. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 33.1
33. Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 33.8
34. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 34.5
35. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 34.9
36. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 35.4
37. Memphis Tigers (8-4) - 36.7
38. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 37.0
39. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 37.5
40. Utah Utes (8-4) - 39.4
41. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 39.6
42. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 40.6
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 41.0
44. Troy Trojans (9-3) - 42.7
45. Colorado State Rams (7-5) - 45.1
46. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 45.3
47. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 47.5
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 48.0
49. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 50.1
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5) - 50.2
51. San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) - 50.8
52. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 51.0
53. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 52.2
54. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 53.7
55. Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3) - 53.9
56. Wyoming Cowboys (8-5) - 56.3
57. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 57.6
58. UCF Knights (6-6) - 57.7
59. TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) - 59.2
60. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 60.8
61. Baylor Bears (6-6) - 62.8
62. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 63.0
63. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 64.4
64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 66.0
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 66.1
66. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 66.5
67. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 68.7
68. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 68.9
69. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 70.1
70. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 71.0
71. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 71.5
72. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 72.0
73. Maryland Terrapins (6-6) - 72.7
74. Ohio Bobcats (8-5) - 73.3
75. Idaho Vandals (8-4) - 75.3
76. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6) - 75.4
77. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 76.4
78. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) - 77.1
79. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 79.0
80. Indiana Hoosiers (6-6) - 79.3
81. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 79.8
82. New Mexico Lobos (8-4) - 80.1
83. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-7) - 81.2
84. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 82.3
85. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 82.4
86. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 85.0
87. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 85.5
88. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 89.0
89. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 89.9
90. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 90.6
91. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 91.4
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 92.4
93. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 93.4
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.4
(tie) Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.4
96. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 95.6
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 96.3
98. Akron Zips (5-7) - 98.4
99. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 99.6
100. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 100.9
101. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 101.2
102. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 103.0
103. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 103.9
104. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 104.2
105. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 104.7
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.1
107. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 107.0
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 107.5
109. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 109.0
110. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 110.1
111. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 111.7
112. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 111.8
113. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 112.0
114. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 112.2
115. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 115.2
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 115.4
(tie) San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 115.4
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.2
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 117.9
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 119.8
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 121.2
122. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.1
123. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 122.4
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.0
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 123.9
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 125.5
127. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 126.8
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 127.7
There's still one game left in the regular season (Army-Navy), so there might be some changes - the outcome of any game impacts to some degree every team in FBS because of the way we do our analysis - but our rankings this week are pretty close to what they will be heading into bowl season.
Here's what we have:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) - 1.0
2. Washington Huskies (12-1) - 2.9
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 3.3
4. Western Michigan Broncos (13-0) - 3.4
5. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.6
6. USC Trojans (9-3) - 6.7
7. Clemson Tigers (12-1) - 7.0
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 7.5
9. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) - 9.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 10.1
11. Colorado Buffaloes (10-3) - 10.4
12. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 12.8
13. Louisville Cardinals (9-3) - 13.6
14. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 14.6
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 15.6
16. Miami Hurricanes (8-4) - 16.8
17. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 18.5
18. Auburn Tigers (8-4) - 18.8
19. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) - 19.3
20. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 20.7
21. South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 21.0
22. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-3) - 21.8
23. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) - 23.2
24. Temple Owls (10-3) - 24.2
25. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 26.5
26. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2) - 26.6
27. Florida Gators (8-4) - 27.2
28. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 27.8
29. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 29.8
30. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4) - 30.5
31. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 32.9
32. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 33.1
33. Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 33.8
34. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 34.5
35. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 34.9
36. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 35.4
37. Memphis Tigers (8-4) - 36.7
38. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 37.0
39. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 37.5
40. Utah Utes (8-4) - 39.4
41. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 39.6
42. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 40.6
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 41.0
44. Troy Trojans (9-3) - 42.7
45. Colorado State Rams (7-5) - 45.1
46. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 45.3
47. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 47.5
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 48.0
49. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 50.1
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5) - 50.2
51. San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) - 50.8
52. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 51.0
53. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 52.2
54. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 53.7
55. Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3) - 53.9
56. Wyoming Cowboys (8-5) - 56.3
57. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 57.6
58. UCF Knights (6-6) - 57.7
59. TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) - 59.2
60. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 60.8
61. Baylor Bears (6-6) - 62.8
62. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 63.0
63. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 64.4
64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 66.0
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 66.1
66. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 66.5
67. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 68.7
68. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 68.9
69. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 70.1
70. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 71.0
71. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 71.5
72. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 72.0
73. Maryland Terrapins (6-6) - 72.7
74. Ohio Bobcats (8-5) - 73.3
75. Idaho Vandals (8-4) - 75.3
76. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6) - 75.4
77. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 76.4
78. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) - 77.1
79. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 79.0
80. Indiana Hoosiers (6-6) - 79.3
81. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 79.8
82. New Mexico Lobos (8-4) - 80.1
83. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-7) - 81.2
84. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 82.3
85. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 82.4
86. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 85.0
87. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 85.5
88. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 89.0
89. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 89.9
90. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 90.6
91. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 91.4
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 92.4
93. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 93.4
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.4
(tie) Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.4
96. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 95.6
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 96.3
98. Akron Zips (5-7) - 98.4
99. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 99.6
100. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 100.9
101. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 101.2
102. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 103.0
103. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 103.9
104. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 104.2
105. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 104.7
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.1
107. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 107.0
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 107.5
109. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 109.0
110. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 110.1
111. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 111.7
112. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 111.8
113. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 112.0
114. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 112.2
115. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 115.2
116. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 115.4
(tie) San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 115.4
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.2
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 117.9
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 119.8
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 121.2
122. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.1
123. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 122.4
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.0
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 123.9
126. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 125.5
127. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 126.8
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 127.7
Thursday, December 1, 2016
2016 College Football Rankings - Week 13
We have to ask the question. What does Western Michigan have to do to get into the College Football Playoff? All they've done is win every game put before them, and usually by a lot of points. Can it really be called an FBS championship if it simply is impossible for half of the FBS teams to even be included in the playoff? As it is, people are discussing teams with two losses over an undefeated Western Michigan. Granted, we are talking about Western Michigan, but at a fundamental level, something about that just doesn't seem right - especially in light of our latest unbiased, computer analysis. (That's the advantage of ranking the teams based on their wins and losses this season rather than their names, conferences, or previous years' histories.).
As for the Big Ten dilemma, we just remind everyone that a conference championship only includes the in-conference games. It doesn't include the three or four non-conference games that make up 1/4 to 1/3 of every team's full season. Our analysis is based on the entirety of a team's season and doesn't weight conference games any more importantly than non-conference games. Every game is equally important and how a team performs in non-conference is about 1/4 to 1/3 of their overall rating - fitting since that's how much of their season ... well, you get the idea. The end result is a ranking based on who had the best overall season, not just the best performance in-conference. We think that until there are enough slots in the playoff to justify automatic bids to all conference champions, the decision about who to place in the playoff should be based on the whole season. Otherwise, it just increases the committee's inherent bias toward power conferences and continues to lock out possibly deserving teams from outside the P5. Sorry, Badgers and Nittany Lions.
Here are our results after week 13:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) - 1.0
2. Western Michigan Broncos (12-0) - 2.7
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 2.9
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.1
5. Washington Huskies (11-1) - 4.5
6. Clemson Tigers (11-1) - 6.2
7. USC Trojans (9-3) - 7.4
8. Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) - 8.6
9. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) - 8.8
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 9.0
11. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 11.8
12. Louisville Cardinals (9-3) - 12.8
13. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) - 13.8
14. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 13.9
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 15.8
16. Miami Hurricanes (8-4) - 16.9
17. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 18.6
18. Auburn Tigers (8-4) - 18.7
19. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) - 18.8
20. South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 20.8
21. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 21.3
22. Navy Midshipmen (9-2) - 23.4
23. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) - 23.9
24. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-3) - 25.2
25. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2) - 25.5
26. Florida Gators (8-3) - 25.8
27. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 26.6
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-2) - 26.7
29. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 28.7
30. Troy Trojans (9-2) - 28.8
31. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 30.2
32. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) - 33.2
33. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 33.4
34. Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 34.0
35. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 36.0
36. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 36.6
37. Memphis Tigers (8-4) - 37.4
38. Temple Owls (9-3) - 38.4
39. Utah Utes (8-4) - 38.5
40. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 39.4
41. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 40.3
42. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 40.4
(tie) Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 40.4
44. Colorado State Rams (7-5) - 44.0
45. Kansas State Wildcats (7-4) - 45.6
46. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 46.1
47. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 46.9
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 48.4
49. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 49.2
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.9
51. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) - 51.2
52. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 51.3
53. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 53.6
54. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 53.7
55. TCU Horned Frogs (6-5) - 53.9
56. Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3) - 54.2
57. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 56.5
58. UCF Knights (6-6) - 58.1
59. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 58.4
60. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 61.3
61. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 62.8
62. Baylor Bears (6-5) - 63.5
63. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 64.2
64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.7
65. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 66.0
66. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 68.3
67. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 68.5
68. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-5) - 68.9
69. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 69.7
70. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 70.8
71. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 70.9
(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 70.9
73. Maryland Terrapins (6-6) - 72.6
74. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 73.3
75. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6) - 74.7
76. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 75.6
77. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) - 76.4
78. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 77.1
79. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 78.4
80. Indiana Hoosiers (6-6) - 78.5
81. New Mexico Lobos (8-4) - 79.3
82. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 80.3
83. Idaho Vandals (7-4) - 81.4
84. South Alabama Jaguars (5-6) - 83.1
85. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 85.2
86. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 86.4
87. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (5-6) - 88.5
88. Georgia Southern Eagles (4-7) - 89.0
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 89.4
90. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 89.7
91. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 90.8
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 91.0
93. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 93.9
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.5
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 95.5
96. Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.8
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 96.7
98. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-7) - 98.7
99. Akron Zips (5-7) - 99.2
100. Georgia State Panthers (3-8) - 100.8
101. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 101.0
102. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 101.1
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 102.2
104. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 104.2
105. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 104.6
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.1
107. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 106.2
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 107.7
109. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 109.5
110. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 110.3
111. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 112.1
112. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 112.2
113. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 112.6
114. New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) - 112.7
115. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 115.1
116. San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 115.3
117. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 115.5
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.2
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 118.0
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 119.9
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 121.1
122. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 122.1
123. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.3
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.0
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 124.0
126. Texas State Bobcats (2-9) - 125.5
127. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 126.0
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 128.0
As for the Big Ten dilemma, we just remind everyone that a conference championship only includes the in-conference games. It doesn't include the three or four non-conference games that make up 1/4 to 1/3 of every team's full season. Our analysis is based on the entirety of a team's season and doesn't weight conference games any more importantly than non-conference games. Every game is equally important and how a team performs in non-conference is about 1/4 to 1/3 of their overall rating - fitting since that's how much of their season ... well, you get the idea. The end result is a ranking based on who had the best overall season, not just the best performance in-conference. We think that until there are enough slots in the playoff to justify automatic bids to all conference champions, the decision about who to place in the playoff should be based on the whole season. Otherwise, it just increases the committee's inherent bias toward power conferences and continues to lock out possibly deserving teams from outside the P5. Sorry, Badgers and Nittany Lions.
Here are our results after week 13:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) - 1.0
2. Western Michigan Broncos (12-0) - 2.7
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 2.9
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 4.1
5. Washington Huskies (11-1) - 4.5
6. Clemson Tigers (11-1) - 6.2
7. USC Trojans (9-3) - 7.4
8. Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) - 8.6
9. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) - 8.8
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 9.0
11. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 11.8
12. Louisville Cardinals (9-3) - 12.8
13. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) - 13.8
14. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 13.9
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-3) - 15.8
16. Miami Hurricanes (8-4) - 16.9
17. Houston Cougars (9-3) - 18.6
18. Auburn Tigers (8-4) - 18.7
19. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) - 18.8
20. South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 20.8
21. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 21.3
22. Navy Midshipmen (9-2) - 23.4
23. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) - 23.9
24. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-3) - 25.2
25. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2) - 25.5
26. Florida Gators (8-3) - 25.8
27. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 26.6
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-2) - 26.7
29. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 28.7
30. Troy Trojans (9-2) - 28.8
31. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 30.2
32. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) - 33.2
33. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 33.4
34. Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 34.0
35. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 36.0
36. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 36.6
37. Memphis Tigers (8-4) - 37.4
38. Temple Owls (9-3) - 38.4
39. Utah Utes (8-4) - 38.5
40. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 39.4
41. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 40.3
42. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 40.4
(tie) Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 40.4
44. Colorado State Rams (7-5) - 44.0
45. Kansas State Wildcats (7-4) - 45.6
46. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 46.1
47. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 46.9
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 48.4
49. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) - 49.2
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.9
51. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) - 51.2
52. Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) - 51.3
53. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 53.6
54. Ole Miss Rebels (5-7) - 53.7
55. TCU Horned Frogs (6-5) - 53.9
56. Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3) - 54.2
57. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 56.5
58. UCF Knights (6-6) - 58.1
59. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) - 58.4
60. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 61.3
61. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-8) - 62.8
62. Baylor Bears (6-5) - 63.5
63. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 64.2
64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.7
65. Oregon Ducks (4-8) - 66.0
66. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 68.3
67. Oregon State Beavers (4-8) - 68.5
68. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-5) - 68.9
69. Missouri Tigers (4-8) - 69.7
70. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 70.8
71. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 70.9
(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 70.9
73. Maryland Terrapins (6-6) - 72.6
74. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 73.3
75. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6) - 74.7
76. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 75.6
77. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) - 76.4
78. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 77.1
79. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 78.4
80. Indiana Hoosiers (6-6) - 78.5
81. New Mexico Lobos (8-4) - 79.3
82. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 80.3
83. Idaho Vandals (7-4) - 81.4
84. South Alabama Jaguars (5-6) - 83.1
85. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-7) - 85.2
86. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 86.4
87. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (5-6) - 88.5
88. Georgia Southern Eagles (4-7) - 89.0
89. Duke Blue Devils (4-8) - 89.4
90. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 89.7
91. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 90.8
92. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-7) - 91.0
93. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 93.9
94. Arizona Wildcats (3-9) - 95.5
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 95.5
96. Utah State Aggies (3-9) - 95.8
97. Michigan State Spartans (3-9) - 96.7
98. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-7) - 98.7
99. Akron Zips (5-7) - 99.2
100. Georgia State Panthers (3-8) - 100.8
101. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 101.0
102. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 101.1
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 102.2
104. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 104.2
105. Charlotte 49ers (4-8) - 104.6
106. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9) - 106.1
107. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 106.2
108. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 107.7
109. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 109.5
110. UNLV Rebels (4-8) - 110.3
111. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9) - 112.1
112. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 112.2
113. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 112.6
114. New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) - 112.7
115. UTEP Miners (4-8) - 115.1
116. San Jose State Spartans (4-8) - 115.3
117. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9) - 115.5
118. Purdue Boilermakers (3-9) - 117.2
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 118.0
120. Rice Owls (3-9) - 119.9
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 121.1
122. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 122.1
123. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-10) - 122.3
124. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 123.0
125. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 124.0
126. Texas State Bobcats (2-9) - 125.5
127. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-11) - 126.0
128. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 128.0
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
