Monday, December 16, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Army-Navy Game

The Army-Navy Game actually had no impact on how the college football playoff would have been seeded if the Baggaley rankings were used. That is because Army would still be the fourth highest ranked conference champion. Army falls to #13, but Clemson also dropped to #15.:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship games have been played, we are using the winner of each game as the conference champion, of course.)

Game 1 #12 Clemson Tigers @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Texas Longhorns
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Army Black Knights
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Boise State Broncos
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that no Big 12 teams play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars, at #16, even though the Big 12 Conference Champion is #19 Arizona State Sun Devils. The ACC Conference Champion (#15 Clemson Tigers) is the fifth automatic bid. They are still ranked lower than the now #10 SMU Mustangs.
Conference representation: Big Ten - 4 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, MWC - 1 team, AAC - 1 team, Independent - 1 team.
First four teams outside the CFP: Miami Hurricanes, Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, and BYU Cougars.

2024 College Football Rankings - Final Pre-Bowl Rankings

On Saturday, Navy beat Army pretty handily. That primarily affected those two teams and anyone who played them. Here's how the final pre-bowl rankings after the conclusion of that final game worked out:

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) - 1.1

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 2.2

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 2.9

4. Texas Longhorns (11-2) - 4.3

5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 5.0

6. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 6.4

7. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 6.7

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 8.2

9. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.0

10. SMU Mustangs (11-2) - 9.5

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 11.5

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 13.3

13. Army Black Knights (11-2) - 13.5

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 13.7

15. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 14.4

16. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 15.3

17. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.7

18. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 18.0

19. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) - 19.6

20. UNLV Rebels (10-3) - 20.2

21. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 20.8

22. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.8

23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 23.4

24. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) - 25.2

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 25.2

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 27.6

27. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 28.6

28. Florida Gators (7-5) - 28.8

29. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 28.9

30. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 29.7

31. Tulane Green Wave (9-4) - 31.3

32. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 32.2

33. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 34.0

34. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 35.4

35. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 36.0

36. USC Trojans (6-6) - 36.1

37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 36.4

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 38.0

39. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 38.3

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.8

41. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) - 39.4

42. Ohio Bobcats (10-3) - 43.0

(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 43.0

44. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) - 45.0

45. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 45.2

46. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 45.4

(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.4

48. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 49.4

49. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 50.0

51. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 50.7

52. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.4

53. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 53.3

54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 53.8

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 54.2

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 55.4

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.4

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.6

59. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 60.6

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 62.0

61. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 63.4

(tie) West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.4

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 65.2

64. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 66.6

(tie) UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.6

66. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-4) - 66.7

67. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 66.8

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.1

69. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 67.6

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 68.5

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.7

72. Miami University RedHawks (8-5) - 69.9

73. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 71.5

74. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 72.1

75. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 72.7

76. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 75.0

77. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 76.8

78. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.2

79. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.8

80. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 80.2

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.6

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 82.2

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 83.9

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 84.9

85. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 85.2

86. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5

87. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 87.2

88. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.1

(tie) San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.1

90. Houston Cougars (4-8) - 90.5

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.8

92. North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.6

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.7

94. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.6

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 92.9

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 93.1

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 95.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.3

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 100.1

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.6

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 100.7

102. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 101.5

103. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.8

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 104.0

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.1

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 106.9

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.5

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 108.0

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.4

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 110.4

111. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3

112. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.5

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 113.5

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 114.2

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.0

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.6

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.9

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.1

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.3

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.6

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.5

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.7

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.5

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.5

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.1

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.9

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Saturday, December 7, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Championship Week

Here's the Week 15 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship games have been played, we are using the winner of each game as the conference champion, of course.)

Game 1 #12 Clemson Tigers @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Texas Longhorns
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Army Black Knights
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Boise State Broncos
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that no Big 12 teams play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #16 even though the Big 12 Conference Champion is #19 Arizona State Sun Devils. The ACC Conference Champion (#15 Clemson Tigers) is the fifth automatic bid. They are still ranked lower than the #11 SMU Mustangs.
Conference representation: Big Ten - 4 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, MWC - 1 team, AAC - 1 team, Independent - 1 team.
First four teams outside the CFP: Miami Hurricanes, Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, and BYU Cougars.

These results can be considered how things would shake out if "most deserving" were the criteria for selection, as these are the teams with the best resume when you take all games into account. Of course, that is not the selection criteria. The selection criteria is the poorly defined and very subjective "best team" which allows for brands and biases to come into play in the committee's decisions.
It is also interesting to note that the Army Black Knights still have a game remaining - against Navy. The results of that game will not affect the CFP Committee's decision, but we will explore how it affects our results next week anyway.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 15 (Championship Week)

Championship Week consists of just the top two teams in most conferences playing for the conferenc title. Here is how the results of those games affected our rankings. As you may note, some conference champions are not the highest ranked teams from their conference. That is because the championship game is not weighted any higher in our calculations than any other game. It is especially interesting to note, for instance, that Texas is still ranked higher than Georgia, even though Georgia has now beaten them twice. Of course, Texas hasn't lost to anyone else, and Georgia lost two games, including to Ole Miss by 18 points, which is why their overall season is not as good as Texas's.:

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) - 1.3

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 3.1

4. Texas Longhorns (11-2) - 4.6

5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 5.3

6. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 6.9

7. Army Black Knights (11-1) - 7.1

8. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 7.2

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 8.9

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.6

11. SMU Mustangs (11-2) - 10.4

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 12.2

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 13.9

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 14.2

15. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 14.8

16. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 15.6

17. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.7

18. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 17.9

19. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) - 19.2

20. UNLV Rebels (10-3) - 19.5

21. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.2

22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 22.4

23. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) - 24.1

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 24.2

25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 26.7

26. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 27.6

27. Florida Gators (7-5) - 27.7

(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 27.7

29. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 28.8

30. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 31.5

31. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 31.7

32. Tulane Green Wave (9-4) - 33.1

33. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 34.8

34. USC Trojans (6-6) - 35.4

35. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 35.6

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 35.9

37. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 37.0

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 37.5

39. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 37.8

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.1

41. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) - 38.9

42. Ohio Bobcats (10-3) - 42.9

43. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 43.0

44. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) - 44.8

45. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 45.1

46. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.2

47. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 45.4

48. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 49.4

49. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 50.0

51. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 50.7

52. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.5

53. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 53.3

54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 53.9

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 54.2

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 55.4

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.5

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.6

59. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 60.7

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 61.4

61. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 63.4

(tie) West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.4

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 65.2

64. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-4) - 66.6

(tie) North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 66.6

(tie) UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.6

67. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 66.9

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.1

69. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 67.7

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 68.7

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.7

72. Miami University RedHawks (8-5) - 69.9

73. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 71.5

74. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 72.1

75. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 72.5

76. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 74.9

77. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 77.1

78. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.2

79. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.8

80. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 80.2

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.7

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 82.2

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 83.7

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 85.0

85. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 85.2

86. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 86.4

87. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 86.6

88. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.1

89. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.2

90. Houston Cougars (4-8) - 90.6

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.8

92. North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.6

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.7

94. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.7

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 93.0

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 93.2

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 96.1

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.1

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 99.9

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.5

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 101.0

102. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 101.3

103. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.6

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 103.9

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.6

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 107.0

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.3

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 107.9

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.4

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 110.4

111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.5

112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.9

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 113.5

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 113.9

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.0

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.6

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.9

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.0

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.2

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.7

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.4

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.5

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.5

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.1

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.9

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Sunday, December 1, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 14

Here's the Week 14 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship game matchups are set, the champion is assumed to be the higher ranked team between the two participants in that game.)

Game 1 #12 Army Black Knights @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 Miami Hurricanes @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 SMU Mustangs
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Texas Longhorns
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #15, but they are not in the championship game, which features #20 Iowa State Cyclones vs #23 Arizona State Sun Devils.
First four teams outside the CFP: Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, BYU Cougars, and Tennessee Volunteers.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 14

 The regular season is essentially over. How are the teams ranked heading in to conference championship week? Well, the first thing we'll say is that this season has been so full of parity, that there isn't a clear #1. For now, we'll give that (temporary) ranking to Oregon. As far as we are concerned, there is a clear Top 15 teams. After that, things get even muddier, for instance with three teams tied for #23.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) - 1.4

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 1.7

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 3.1

4. Texas Longhorns (11-1) - 4.1

5. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 6.6

6. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - 6.7

7. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 6.9

8. SMU Mustangs (11-1) - 7.1

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 8.6

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.9

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 11.5

12. Army Black Knights (10-1) - 12.0

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 12.8

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 13.7

15. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 14.7

16. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.1

17. Clemson Tigers (9-3) - 17.8

(tie) UNLV Rebels (10-2) - 17.8

19. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 18.1

20. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) - 19.6

21. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.7

22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 22.9

23. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) - 25.0

(tie) Tulane Green Wave (9-3) - 25.0

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 25.0

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 26.7

27. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 27.6

28. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 28.4

29. Florida Gators (7-5) - 28.5

30. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 28.8

31. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 31.1

32. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-2) - 31.8

33. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 32.6

34. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 35.2

35. USC Trojans (6-6) - 36.1

36. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 36.4

37. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 36.5

38. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 38.2

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 38.5

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.9

(tie) Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 38.9

42. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 42.1

43. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 44.0

44. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 44.8

45. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.4

46. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 48.1

47. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 48.3

48. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 49.6

(tie) Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Ohio Bobcats (9-3) - 50.3

51. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.0

52. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 52.1

53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 52.3

54. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3) - 52.8

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 53.0

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 56.1

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.2

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.4

59. Miami University RedHawks (8-4) - 60.6

60. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 61.0

61. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 62.1

62. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.1

63. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) - 63.9

64. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 64.2

65. UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.8

66. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 67.3

67. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 67.8

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.9

69. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 68.2

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 69.1

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.5

72. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 70.8

73. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 71.5

74. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 71.9

75. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 72.5

76. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 76.6

77. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.5

78. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 78.5

79. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) - 78.7

80. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.9

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.0

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 81.8

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 84.8

84. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 85.9

85. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 86.2

86. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 86.7

87. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 87.7

88. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.3

89. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.8

(tie) Houston Cougars (4-8) - 88.8

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.5

92. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 91.4

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.5

(tie) North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.5

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 92.2

96. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.9

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 95.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.4

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 99.4

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.6

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 100.7

102. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.8

103. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 102.0

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 104.0

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.4

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 106.9

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.4

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 107.8

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.5

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 111.2

111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.3

112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.4

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 112.8

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 114.3

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.2

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.5

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.8

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.0

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.2

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.6

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.5

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.4

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.6

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.2

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.8

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Sunday, November 24, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 13

Here's the Week 13 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Army Black Knights @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Texas Longhorns
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #15.
First four teams outside the CFP: Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, BYU Cougars, and Clemson Tigers.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 13

 Week 13 was a crazy week. How much did it shake up our rankings? Have a look:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) - 1.0

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) - 2.9

4. Texas Longhorns (10-1) - 4.1

5. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) - 6.0

6. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) - 6.2

7. Boise State Broncos (10-1) - 7.7

8. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) - 8.1

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1) - 9.3

10. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 9.8

11. SMU Mustangs (10-1) - 10.4

12. Army Black Knights (9-1) - 11.4

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) - 13.2

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) - 14.0

15. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 15.6

16. Clemson Tigers (9-2) - 15.8

17. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 17.8

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 18.2

19. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 18.6

20. UNLV Rebels (9-2) - 18.9

21. Kansas State Wildcats (8-3) - 21.8

22. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2) - 21.9

23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) - 22.4

24. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 25.1

25. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) - 26.1

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) - 26.9

27. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6) - 27.6

28. Florida Gators (6-5) - 28.9

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) - 29.5

30. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (9-2) - 29.7

31. Oklahoma Sooners (6-5) - 30.3

32. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) - 30.6

33. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-5) - 33.9

(tie) USC Trojans (6-5) - 33.9

35. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6) - 34.3

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-4) - 36.2

37. Missouri Tigers (8-3) - 36.5

38. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 39.5

39. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-5) - 40.1

40. Syracuse Orange (8-3) - 41.5

41. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 43.3

42. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-4) - 43.5

43. Michigan Wolverines (6-5) - 45.1

44. Duke Blue Devils (8-3) - 46.5

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 46.6

46. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 46.9

47. Baylor Bears (6-4-1) - 47.1

48. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) - 48.5

49. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 49.5

50. TCU Horned Frogs (7-4) - 50.2

51. Bowling Green Falcons (7-4) - 50.4

52. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 51.2

53. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-3) - 51.6

54. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-4-1) - 51.9

55. Ohio Bobcats (8-3) - 52.6

56. Washington State Cougars (8-3) - 57.6

57. UCF Knights (4-7) - 58.2

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 58.3

59. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5) - 59.1

60. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 59.9

61. Georgia Southern Eagles (7-4) - 61.6

62. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 62.2

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-7) - 62.3

64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 63.4

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-5) - 63.7

66. Texas State Bobcats (6-5) - 63.9

67. South Alabama Jaguars (6-5) - 66.1

68. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) - 68.7

69. UCLA Bruins (4-7) - 68.9

70. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-4) - 70.2

71. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 71.2

72. Miami University RedHawks (7-4) - 71.8

73. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-7) - 74.4

74. NC State Wolfpack (5-6) - 75.2

75. Liberty Flames (8-2) - 75.4

76. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-3) - 76.2

77. Virginia Cavaliers (5-6) - 76.4

78. Toledo Rockets (7-4) - 77.8

79. ECU Pirates (7-4) - 78.2

80. Connecticut Huskies (7-4) - 78.5

81. Michigan State Spartans (5-6) - 78.6

82. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-3) - 79.4

83. Utah Utes (4-7) - 81.6

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-5) - 83.7

85. South Florida Bulls (6-5) - 85.3

86. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5) - 86.6

87. Colorado State Rams (7-4) - 87.6

88. Maryland Terrapins (4-7) - 89.6

89. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-7) - 90.4

90. San Jose State Spartans (6-5) - 90.6

91. UTSA Roadrunners (6-5) - 91.0

92. Houston Cougars (4-7) - 91.3

93. Buffalo Bulls (7-4) - 92.1

94. North Texas Mean Green (5-6) - 92.7

(tie) Stanford Cardinal (3-8) - 92.7

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-7) - 95.1

97. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-6) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-7) - 97.4

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 98.8

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-6) - 99.6

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 99.9

102. Oregon State Beavers (5-6) - 101.8

103. Western Michigan Broncos (5-6) - 102.9

104. Georgia State Panthers (3-8) - 104.6

105. Florida State Seminoles (2-9) - 105.0

106. Troy Trojans (3-8) - 105.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 108.3

108. Charlotte 49ers (4-7) - 108.6

109. UAB Blazers (3-8) - 108.7

110. Rice Owls (3-8) - 110.0

111. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-6) - 110.1

112. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) - 111.3

113. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 113.7

114. Ball State Cardinals (3-8) - 114.1

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-7) - 114.9

116. Air Force Falcons (4-7) - 116.1

117. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9) - 116.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-7) - 119.1

119. Akron Zips (3-8) - 119.6

120. Temple Owls (3-8) - 120.2

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.6

122. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-9) - 122.1

123. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 123.2

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-8) - 123.5

125. FIU Golden Panthers (3-8) - 124.5

126. Purdue Boilermakers (1-10) - 125.9

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-9) - 126.9

128. Wyoming Cowboys (2-9) - 127.6

129. New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) - 127.7

130. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-8) - 130.6

131. Kennesaw State Owls (2-9) - 130.7

132. UTEP Miners (2-9) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-10) - 131.9

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-11) - 134.9

Saturday, November 16, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 12

Here's the Week 12 Update:


If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Miami Hurricanes @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #6 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 3 #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Georgia Bulldogs @ #8 Texas Longhorns

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 12

How did BYU's loss to #54 Kansas affect their standing in the rankings this week? What about Oregon's too-close victory over #66 Wisconsin? Here are the results:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) - 1.5

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 3.0

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) - 4.9

5. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 5.6

6. Boise State Broncos (9-1) - 6.7

7. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 7.6

8. Texas Longhorns (9-1) - 7.7

9. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) - 8.3

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) - 8.4

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) - 10.8

12. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.0

13. SMU Mustangs (9-1) - 12.5

14. BYU Cougars (9-1) - 13.9

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) - 15.1

16. Clemson Tigers (8-2) - 16.6

17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) - 18.3

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 19.0

19. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) - 19.1

20. UNLV Rebels (8-2) - 19.7

21. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) - 20.5

(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) - 20.5

23. Louisville Cardinals (6-4) - 24.1

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 24.6

25. Kansas State Wildcats (7-3) - 25.4

26. LSU Tigers (6-4) - 25.7

27. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 27.9

28. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 28.4

29. James Madison Dukes (8-2) - 31.0

30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-3) - 31.1

31. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) - 31.3

32. USC Trojans (5-5) - 32.7

33. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-2) - 33.0

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-5) - 35.2

35. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 37.0

36. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 37.2

37. Florida Gators (5-5) - 37.3

38. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 37.6

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

40. Kansas Jayhawks (4-6) - 41.7

41. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 42.4

42. Missouri Tigers (7-3) - 43.3

43. Washington State Cougars (8-2) - 43.4

44. Syracuse Orange (7-3) - 45.0

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 45.3

46. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-5) - 47.1

47. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-3) - 47.7

48. Texas State Bobcats (6-4) - 48.2

49. UCF Knights (4-6) - 49.8

50. Baylor Bears (5-4-1) - 50.1

51. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 50.6

52. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 52.1

53. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 52.3

54. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 53.1

55. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) - 55.7

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4-1) - 55.9

57. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4) - 56.0

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) - 58.6

59. Wisconsin Badgers (5-5) - 59.0

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-4) - 59.9

61. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3) - 60.5

62. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 61.2

63. Boston College Eagles (5-5) - 61.3

64. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) - 64.2

65. Toledo Rockets (7-3) - 64.6

66. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-2) - 65.5

67. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 65.6

68. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 66.2

69. Ohio Bobcats (7-3) - 69.1

(tie) UCLA Bruins (4-6) - 69.1

71. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-4) - 69.7

72. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) - 71.0

73. Auburn Tigers (4-6) - 73.1

74. South Alabama Jaguars (5-5) - 73.4

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-6) - 73.6

76. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 76.0

77. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 76.4

78. Miami University RedHawks (6-4) - 78.2

79. Michigan State Spartans (4-6) - 78.8

80. Maryland Terrapins (4-6) - 80.9

81. Colorado State Rams (7-3) - 81.7

82. Utah Utes (4-6) - 82.4

83. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) - 83.4

84. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (7-3) - 83.9

(tie) Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) - 83.9

86. North Texas Mean Green (5-5) - 85.0

87. Arizona Wildcats (4-6) - 87.9

88. Houston Cougars (4-6) - 88.3

89. San Jose State Spartans (6-4) - 88.8

90. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-5) - 89.1

91. ECU Pirates (6-4) - 89.5

92. UTSA Roadrunners (5-5) - 91.3

93. South Florida Bulls (5-5) - 92.6

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 93.8

95. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-5) - 95.0

96. Stanford Cardinal (3-7) - 95.8

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-4) - 96.6

(tie) Liberty Flames (7-2) - 96.6

99. Western Michigan Broncos (5-5) - 97.5

100. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 99.8

101. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 100.4

102. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) - 101.6

103. Troy Trojans (3-7) - 102.4

104. Rice Owls (3-7) - 104.4

105. Oregon State Beavers (4-6) - 106.2

106. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-5) - 107.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 107.4

108. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 108.0

109. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 108.3

110. Ball State Cardinals (3-7) - 110.2

111. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-6) - 110.7

112. Charlotte 49ers (3-7) - 111.8

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 112.4

114. Georgia State Panthers (2-8) - 113.1

115. Temple Owls (3-7) - 116.5

116. UAB Blazers (2-8) - 116.9

117. Utah State Aggies (3-7) - 118.4

118. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-8) - 118.7

119. Air Force Falcons (3-7) - 120.2

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-7) - 121.1

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.3

122. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) - 121.4

123. FIU Golden Panthers (3-7) - 121.6

124. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-7) - 121.9

125. Akron Zips (2-8) - 122.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-8) - 126.2

127. Purdue Boilermakers (1-9) - 126.8

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 128.1

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-8) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-8) - 130.1

131. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.6

132. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-9) - 131.4

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-9) - 132.4

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-10) - 134.9

Monday, November 11, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 11

Here's the Week 11 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point)

Game 1 #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 2 #11 Georgia Bulldogs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeys
Game 3 #10 BYU Cougars @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 Alabama Crimson Tide

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Boise State Broncos
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

________________________________________________

Special Feature: One of the advantages of our analysis system is that we can project the impact of opportunities of in the future schedule of teams - taking into account ALL games, so the future schedule of teams you have already played also impacts this ranking. Using this tool, we project the teams with the best opportunities to improve their seeding and how that could change their ranking. Of course, they still have to actually win their games. But using that tool, here is the Top 25. Team records show current wins, losses and games remaining. Conference championship games are not included, since those matchups have not yet been determined.

1. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0-2) - 1.3
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0-2) - 1.8
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1-3) - 3.3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1-3) - 4.7
5. Army Black Knights (9-0-3) - 5.8
6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2-2) - 6.2
7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1-2) - 7.1
8. BYU Cougars (9-0-3) - 7.8
9. Texas Longhorns (8-1-3) - 8.0
10. SMU Mustangs (8-1-3) - 10.4
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2-3) - 10.5
12. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2-3) - 11.8
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1-3) - 13.0
14. Boise State Broncos (8-1-3) - 13.6
15. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2-3) - 17.2
16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3-3) - 17.3
17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1-3) - 18.5
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3-3) - 18.8
19. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2-3) - 21.3
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4-2) - 21.5
21. Clemson Tigers (7-2-3) - 21.6
22. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2-3) - 22.6
23. Tulane Green Wave (8-2-2) - 22.8
24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5-2) - 23.2
25. Navy Midshipmen (7-2-3) - 23.5

As this plays out, it sets up the potential CFP like this:

Game 1 #12 Georgia Bulldogs @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 SMU Mustangs @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 BYU Cougars

Game 5 Game 1 winner vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes
Game 6 Game 2 winner vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Game 3 winner vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Game 4 winner vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers

_________________________________________

Discussion: Teams that moved up in the rankings have one of the more difficult schedules ahead of them. Teams that moved down in the rankings have one of the easier schedules ahead of them. This can be taken as it is applied, that winning a difficult game moves you up in the rankings more. Or it can mean that you are more likely to lose than a team with an easy schedule.

Remember what really matters in this system is how you perform against the schedule given to you. If you play an easy team, you should win by a lot. If you play a hard team, you can barely win and the benefit should be similar. Losing to a hard team doesn't cost you as much as losing to a team you should beat by a lot. Also, as the season goes on, there is more and more evidence that the teams you have already played are difficult or easy, and so the difficulty of your previous schedule also impacts this projection. So when BYU moves up from #10 to #8, Texas stays and #9 and Alabama drops from #8 to #11, it means that there is more "as yet unrealized potential" in BYU's schedule to positively impact their ranking than in Texas or Alabama's schedules. (This is the beauty of analyzing a team, their schedule, and their opponent's schedules, based on actual game score and independent of the names on the helmet or the conference they belong to.) And before you doubt the accuracy of this, remember that Alabama is playing FCS team Mercer at home this week, part of the SEC's tradition of having many teams play a nobody late in the schedule to give them essentially an extra bye week, since unlike the other power conferences, they only play 8 conference games.

Another interesting feature of this is that having fewer games remaining on your schedule benefits you in this analysis. This reflects that there is less uncertainty in your remaining schedule, because just like you could win a game, you might also lose it. This, in part, explains Miami's jump up from #13 to #7 in this analysis. Take all of that into consideration when looking at this ranking.

Saturday, November 9, 2024

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 11

Indiana played a relatively close game against a mediocre Michigan team. As a result, they dropped from #1 to #2 in the rankings. That's what happens when you have a weak schedule and you play a closer game than you ought to. Here are the complete results of our rankings after 11 weeks of the 2024 season:

1. Oregon Ducks (10-0) - 1.3

2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 2.7

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) - 2.8

4. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 4.1

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) - 5.8

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 6.3

7. Boise State Broncos (8-1) - 6.9

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) - 7.8

9. Texas Longhorns (8-1) - 8.8

10. BYU Cougars (9-0) - 9.6

11. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) - 11.0

12. SMU Mustangs (8-1) - 12.3

13. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.5

14. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) - 13.1

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) - 15.5

16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) - 16.3

17. Clemson Tigers (7-2) - 17.4

18. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) - 18.1

19. UNLV Rebels (7-2) - 21.3

20. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) - 21.6

21. LSU Tigers (6-3) - 21.7

(tie) Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) - 21.7

23. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) - 24.8

(tie) Tulane Green Wave (8-2) - 24.8

(tie) Washington State Cougars (8-1) - 24.8

26. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-1) - 27.0

27. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2) - 27.1

28. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 27.4

29. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2) - 28.7

30. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 29.1

31. Navy Midshipmen (7-2) - 29.6

32. James Madison Dukes (7-2) - 30.0

33. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) - 30.4

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) - 34.8

35. USC Trojans (4-5) - 35.9

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 36.1

37. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) - 36.6

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

39. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4) - 40.3

40. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 40.5

41. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 42.6

(tie) Missouri Tigers (7-2) - 42.6

43. Washington Huskies (5-5) - 45.3

44. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 46.7

45. Florida Gators (4-5) - 46.9

46. Texas State Bobcats (5-4) - 48.7

47. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4) - 50.4

48. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-3) - 50.5

49. Boston College Eagles (5-4) - 50.8

50. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 51.6

51. UCF Knights (4-6) - 51.9

52. Baylor Bears (5-4) - 53.0

53. Memphis Tigers (8-2) - 54.0

54. Kansas Jayhawks (3-6) - 54.2

55. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 54.8

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) - 55.1

57. California Golden Bears (5-4) - 55.9

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) - 56.5

59. UCLA Bruins (4-5) - 57.1

60. Sam Houston Bearkats (7-2) - 58.0

61. Syracuse Orange (6-3) - 58.8

62. Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) - 61.4

63. Bowling Green Falcons (5-4) - 62.4

64. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 62.8

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-4) - 63.2

66. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) - 63.8

67. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-4) - 66.6

68. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3) - 68.0

69. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 68.1

70. North Texas Mean Green (5-4) - 69.8

71. Michigan State Spartans (4-5) - 70.3

72. Toledo Rockets (6-3) - 72.1

73. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6) - 72.3

74. Maryland Terrapins (4-5) - 73.7

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-5) - 74.1

76. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 74.2

77. Houston Cougars (4-5) - 77.3

78. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 79.3

79. Utah Utes (4-5) - 80.7

80. Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) - 82.2

81. San Jose State Spartans (6-3) - 82.3

82. South Alabama Jaguars (4-5) - 82.5

83. Ohio Bobcats (6-3) - 82.6

84. Miami University RedHawks (5-4) - 83.1

85. Colorado State Rams (6-3) - 84.0

86. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5) - 84.4

87. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-3) - 84.5

88. Auburn Tigers (3-6) - 85.0

89. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-4) - 86.6

90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-4) - 88.3

91. ECU Pirates (5-4) - 89.3

92. Liberty Flames (6-2) - 92.5

93. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 93.3

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 94.9

95. Oregon State Beavers (4-5) - 95.5

96. Hawaii Warriors (4-6) - 95.7

97. Buffalo Bulls (5-4) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (3-6) - 99.1

99. South Florida Bulls (4-5) - 99.2

100. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 99.5

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 100.5

102. Rice Owls (3-7) - 102.7

103. UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) - 103.9

104. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4) - 104.8

105. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) - 105.0

106. Charlotte 49ers (3-6) - 105.7

107. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 107.3

108. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 107.4

109. Stanford Cardinal (2-7) - 107.8

110. Troy Trojans (2-7) - 109.5

111. Ball State Cardinals (3-6) - 110.2

112. Georgia State Panthers (2-7) - 111.5

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 113.1

114. UAB Blazers (2-7) - 113.3

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-6) - 115.9

116. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-7) - 117.0

117. Temple Owls (2-7) - 117.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6) - 118.5

119. Akron Zips (2-7) - 119.7

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-6) - 119.8

121. FIU Golden Panthers (3-6) - 121.3

(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6) - 121.3

123. Purdue Boilermakers (1-8) - 123.2

124. Air Force Falcons (2-7) - 124.0

125. New Mexico Lobos (4-6) - 124.4

126. Utah State Aggies (2-7) - 125.3

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-7) - 126.7

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 127.9

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-7) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-7) - 129.8

131. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-8) - 130.5

132. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.7

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-8) - 133.0

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-9) - 134.9

Monday, November 4, 2024

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 10

Tomorrow, the CFP Committee will come out with their first rankings of the 2024 season. Their stated purpose is to rank the teams based on who is "best" including such qualities as the "eye test." They specifically are not trying to rank teams based on who is "most deserving." Which sounds to us like an excuse for ranking teams higher based on which conference they belong to, whether they actually deserve to be in the playoff or not.

Regardless, our ranking system analyzes the resume of each team - essentially evaluating each team on whether they are "most deserving" to be in the playoff or not. That is a different metric than the CFP Committee's evaluation. We feel it is better in terms of fair competition. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. We are sure others will disagree with our ratings. And that's what's really fun. We have a lot of actual game data to support our opinions, (not just broad generalities like "my team plays in the most difficult conference in America") but we'd love to hear you support yours as well.

If the Baggaley Football Rankings were used to seed teams (highest ranked team from each conference is considered the "conference champion" until there actually is one), here is how the seedings would have turned out based on rankings after 10 weeks in this inaugural season of the 12-team playoff:

Round 1

Game 1 - #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 - #11 Texas Longhorns @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game 3 - #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 4 - #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #8 BYU Cougars


Quarterfinals

Game 5 - #4 Boise State (MWC Champion) vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6 - #3 Army Black Knights (AAC Champion) vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 - #2 Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion) vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 - #1 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Champion) vs. Game 4 winner

(Game 5 winner plays Game 8 winner and Game 6 winner plays Game 7 winner in the semi-finals with the winner of those two games meetings in the finals.)

Conference representation: Big Ten - 3 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, Big 12 - 1 team, Independent - 1 team, AAC (Group of 5) - 1 team, MWC (Group of 5) - 1 team.

Just outside the cut: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC), Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten), Louisville Cardinals (ACC), Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12).

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

2022 College Football Rankings - Week 15

So, the obvious question on seeing the final ratings for 2022 and seeing that the TCU Horned Frogs ended up in #6 is was this a result of being blown out so badly in the championship game by Georgia, or should they have been in the playoff at all? The short answer is that going into bowl season, TCU had the fifth best resume among teams, suggesting that losing in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State should have knocked them out, and that even before the four-team playoff, there was another team that was more deserving of being in that playoff in the first place. Which team was that? See below for the full rankings heading into bowl season:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) - 1.2

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-0) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) - 4.6

5. TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) - 5.5

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 6.7

7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 6.8

(tie) Utah Utes (10-3) - 6.8

9. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) - 9.0

10. Oregon Ducks (9-3) - 10.9

11. USC Trojans (11-2) - 11.3

12. Clemson Tigers (11-2) - 11.4

13. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 12.9

14. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 14.5

15. Tulane Green Wave (11-2) - 15.6

16. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) - 15.8

17. LSU Tigers (9-4) - 16.4

18. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 18.5

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 19.5

20. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 20.4

21. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) - 21.4

22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 23.2

23. Florida Gators (6-6) - 24.8

(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) - 24.8

25. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 25.6

26. South Alabama Jaguars (10-2) - 27.6

27. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) - 27.9

28. Troy Trojans (11-2) - 28.0

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4) - 28.6

30. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 30.5

31. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 30.6

32. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 30.8

33. UTSA Roadrunners (11-2) - 34.8

34. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 35.2

35. Duke Blue Devils (8-4) - 36.7

36. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 37.2

37. UCF Knights (9-4) - 37.5

38. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.5

39. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4) - 38.6

40. Baylor Bears (6-6) - 38.7

41. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 38.8

42. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 39.8

43. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 43.3

44. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 44.4

45. Washington State Cougars (7-5) - 46.3

46. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) - 46.7

47. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) - 47.8

48. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 48.5

49. Missouri Tigers (6-6) - 49.0

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-6) - 49.2

51. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 49.7

52. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 49.9

53. Purdue Boilermakers (8-5) - 50.6

54. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 54.0

55. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 56.2

56. Houston Cougars (7-5) - 56.3

57. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) - 57.9

58. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 58.1

59. Boise State Broncos (9-4) - 59.0

60. Memphis Tigers (6-6) - 59.8

61. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 60.0

(tie) Wisconsin Badgers (6-6) - 60.0

63. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 62.9

64. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 64.1

65. BYU Cougars (7-5) - 64.7

66. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3) - 66.9

67. UAB Blazers (6-6) - 68.3

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 68.4

69. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 69.0

70. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.3

71. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 70.5

72. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 70.8

73. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 71.1

74. Liberty Flames (8-4) - 73.8

75. San Jose State Spartans (7-4) - 74.2

76. North Texas Mean Green (7-6) - 75.7

77. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 76.0

78. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 77.9

79. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 79.5

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.3

81. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) - 82.0

83. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 84.2

84. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 85.9

85. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 86.9

86. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 87.9

87. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) - 88.0

88. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5) - 88.1

89. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.0

90. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.3

91. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 90.0

92. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 93.0

93. Connecticut Huskies (6-6) - 93.6

94. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.2

95. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 96.1

96. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) - 97.0

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-6) - 97.2

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 97.8

99. Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 98.7

100. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.1

101. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 100.7

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 101.6

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 101.6

104. Utah State Aggies (6-6) - 103.4

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.9

106. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 105.2

107. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.1

108. Rice Owls (5-7) - 106.3

109. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 108.7

110. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 108.8

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 109.3

112. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.0

113. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 113.8

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.2

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.6

116. New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) - 115.6

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 117.4

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.4

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-6) - 120.7

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.5

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.4

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.3

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 127.8

129. New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.1

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.5

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1

2022 College Football Final Rankings

In 2022, the Georgia Bulldogs maintained their dominance, repeating as champions. Here are how the final rankings turned out for 2022:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (15-0) - 1.0

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-1) - 2.0

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-2) - 4.1

5. Tennessee Volunteers (11-2) - 5.4

6. TCU Horned Frogs (13-2) - 6.2

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 6.4

8. Utah Utes (10-4) - 8.6

9. Oregon Ducks (10-3) - 9.4

10. Oregon State Beavers (10-3) - 11.1

11. LSU Tigers (10-4) - 11.3

12. Kansas State Wildcats (10-4) - 12.2

13. USC Trojans (11-3) - 12.5

14. Tulane Green Wave (12-2) - 14.7

15. Florida State Seminoles (10-3) - 14.9

16. Clemson Tigers (11-3) - 15.1

17. Texas Longhorns (8-5) - 16.1

18. Washington Huskies (11-2) - 17.6

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 18.8

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-4) - 20.4

21. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5) - 22.5

22. Louisville Cardinals (8-5) - 23.3

23. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-5) - 23.7

24. UCLA Bruins (9-4) - 24.8

25. Duke Blue Devils (9-4) - 25.3

26. Troy Trojans (12-2) - 27.9

27. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 28.4

28. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 29.7

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) - 30.2

30. Oklahoma Sooners (6-7) - 30.7

31. Ole Miss Rebels (8-5) - 32.3

32. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 33.2

33. Florida Gators (6-7) - 33.4

34. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-4) - 33.7

35. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4) - 34.5

36. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-5) - 35.7

(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (11-3) - 35.7

38. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 38.0

39. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.6

40. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4) - 38.7

41. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-6) - 39.1

42. Syracuse Orange (7-6) - 41.6

43. Maryland Terrapins (8-5) - 41.8

44. UCF Knights (9-5) - 45.1

45. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 45.4

46. Baylor Bears (6-7) - 46.9

47. South Alabama Jaguars (10-3) - 47.4

48. ECU Pirates (8-5) - 48.2

49. NC State Wolfpack (8-5) - 48.7

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-7) - 49.3

51. Memphis Tigers (7-6) - 52.0

52. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-6) - 52.6

53. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 52.8

54. Houston Cougars (8-5) - 53.7

55. Boise State Broncos (10-4) - 54.7

56. Wisconsin Badgers (7-6) - 55.3

57. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 55.5

58. Purdue Boilermakers (8-6) - 56.8

59. Missouri Tigers (6-7) - 57.3

60. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) - 59.9

61. Washington State Cougars (7-6) - 60.2

62. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-5) - 61.2

63. BYU Cougars (8-5) - 62.5

64. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 62.9

65. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 65.1

66. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 66.2

67. UAB Blazers (7-6) - 67.8

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 69.4

69. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 69.7

70. Ohio Bobcats (10-4) - 70.0

71. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.7

72. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-7) - 71.6

73. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-4) - 73.2

74. Liberty Flames (8-5) - 74.1

75. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) - 74.7

76. Toledo Rockets (9-5) - 75.1

77. North Texas Mean Green (7-7) - 75.9

78. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 78.5

79. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 79.0

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.1

81. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 84.7

83. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) - 84.8

84. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-7) - 85.7

85. San Diego State Aztecs (7-6) - 86.8

86. Wyoming Cowboys (7-6) - 87.0

87. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 87.2

88. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 88.8

89. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.2

90. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 89.5

91. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.6

92. Eastern Michigan Eagles (9-4) - 91.2

93. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 94.0

94. Buffalo Bulls (7-6) - 94.3

95. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.4

96. Connecticut Huskies (6-7) - 94.9

97. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 97.4

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 98.6

99. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.6

100. Miami University RedHawks (6-7) - 100.4

(tie) Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 100.4

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 100.9

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 100.9

104. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 103.8

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.5

106. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.8

107. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 107.0

108. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 107.1

109. Rice Owls (5-8) - 108.0

110. Utah State Aggies (6-7) - 108.6

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 108.8

112. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6) - 112.1

113. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.9

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.0

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.9

116. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 115.1

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 118.0

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.3

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-7) - 121.3

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.3

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.8

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.1

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 128.0

(tie) New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.0

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.4

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1