Monday, November 4, 2024

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 10

Tomorrow, the CFP Committee will come out with their first rankings of the 2024 season. Their stated purpose is to rank the teams based on who is "best" including such qualities as the "eye test." They specifically are not trying to rank teams based on who is "most deserving." Which sounds to us like an excuse for ranking teams higher based on which conference they belong to, whether they actually deserve to be in the playoff or not.

Regardless, our ranking system analyzes the resume of each team - essentially evaluating each team on whether they are "most deserving" to be in the playoff or not. That is a different metric than the CFP Committee's evaluation. We feel it is better in terms of fair competition. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. We are sure others will disagree with our ratings. And that's what's really fun. We have a lot of actual game data to support our opinions, (not just broad generalities like "my team plays in the most difficult conference in America") but we'd love to hear you support yours as well.

If the Baggaley Football Rankings were used to seed teams (highest ranked team from each conference is considered the "conference champion" until there actually is one), here is how the seedings would have turned out based on rankings after 10 weeks in this inaugural season of the 12-team playoff:

Round 1

Game 1 - #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 - #11 Texas Longhorns @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game 3 - #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 4 - #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #8 BYU Cougars


Quarterfinals

Game 5 - #4 Boise State (MWC Champion) vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6 - #3 Army Black Knights (AAC Champion) vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 - #2 Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion) vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 - #1 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Champion) vs. Game 4 winner

(Game 5 winner plays Game 8 winner and Game 6 winner plays Game 7 winner in the semi-finals with the winner of those two games meetings in the finals.)

Conference representation: Big Ten - 3 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, Big 12 - 1 team, Independent - 1 team, AAC (Group of 5) - 1 team, MWC (Group of 5) - 1 team.

Just outside the cut: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC), Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten), Louisville Cardinals (ACC), Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12).

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

2022 College Football Rankings - Week 15

So, the obvious question on seeing the final ratings for 2022 and seeing that the TCU Horned Frogs ended up in #6 is was this a result of being blown out so badly in the championship game by Georgia, or should they have been in the playoff at all? The short answer is that going into bowl season, TCU had the fifth best resume among teams, suggesting that losing in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State should have knocked them out, and that even before the four-team playoff, there was another team that was more deserving of being in that playoff in the first place. Which team was that? See below for the full rankings heading into bowl season:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) - 1.2

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-0) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) - 4.6

5. TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) - 5.5

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 6.7

7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 6.8

(tie) Utah Utes (10-3) - 6.8

9. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) - 9.0

10. Oregon Ducks (9-3) - 10.9

11. USC Trojans (11-2) - 11.3

12. Clemson Tigers (11-2) - 11.4

13. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 12.9

14. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 14.5

15. Tulane Green Wave (11-2) - 15.6

16. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) - 15.8

17. LSU Tigers (9-4) - 16.4

18. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 18.5

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 19.5

20. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 20.4

21. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) - 21.4

22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 23.2

23. Florida Gators (6-6) - 24.8

(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) - 24.8

25. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 25.6

26. South Alabama Jaguars (10-2) - 27.6

27. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) - 27.9

28. Troy Trojans (11-2) - 28.0

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4) - 28.6

30. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 30.5

31. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 30.6

32. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 30.8

33. UTSA Roadrunners (11-2) - 34.8

34. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 35.2

35. Duke Blue Devils (8-4) - 36.7

36. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 37.2

37. UCF Knights (9-4) - 37.5

38. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.5

39. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4) - 38.6

40. Baylor Bears (6-6) - 38.7

41. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 38.8

42. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 39.8

43. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 43.3

44. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 44.4

45. Washington State Cougars (7-5) - 46.3

46. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) - 46.7

47. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) - 47.8

48. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 48.5

49. Missouri Tigers (6-6) - 49.0

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-6) - 49.2

51. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 49.7

52. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 49.9

53. Purdue Boilermakers (8-5) - 50.6

54. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 54.0

55. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 56.2

56. Houston Cougars (7-5) - 56.3

57. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) - 57.9

58. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 58.1

59. Boise State Broncos (9-4) - 59.0

60. Memphis Tigers (6-6) - 59.8

61. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 60.0

(tie) Wisconsin Badgers (6-6) - 60.0

63. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 62.9

64. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 64.1

65. BYU Cougars (7-5) - 64.7

66. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3) - 66.9

67. UAB Blazers (6-6) - 68.3

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 68.4

69. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 69.0

70. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.3

71. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 70.5

72. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 70.8

73. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 71.1

74. Liberty Flames (8-4) - 73.8

75. San Jose State Spartans (7-4) - 74.2

76. North Texas Mean Green (7-6) - 75.7

77. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 76.0

78. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 77.9

79. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 79.5

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.3

81. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) - 82.0

83. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 84.2

84. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 85.9

85. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 86.9

86. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 87.9

87. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) - 88.0

88. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5) - 88.1

89. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.0

90. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.3

91. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 90.0

92. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 93.0

93. Connecticut Huskies (6-6) - 93.6

94. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.2

95. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 96.1

96. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) - 97.0

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-6) - 97.2

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 97.8

99. Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 98.7

100. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.1

101. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 100.7

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 101.6

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 101.6

104. Utah State Aggies (6-6) - 103.4

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.9

106. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 105.2

107. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.1

108. Rice Owls (5-7) - 106.3

109. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 108.7

110. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 108.8

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 109.3

112. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.0

113. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 113.8

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.2

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.6

116. New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) - 115.6

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 117.4

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.4

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-6) - 120.7

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.5

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.4

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.3

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 127.8

129. New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.1

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.5

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1

2022 College Football Final Rankings

In 2022, the Georgia Bulldogs maintained their dominance, repeating as champions. Here are how the final rankings turned out for 2022:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (15-0) - 1.0

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-1) - 2.0

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-2) - 4.1

5. Tennessee Volunteers (11-2) - 5.4

6. TCU Horned Frogs (13-2) - 6.2

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 6.4

8. Utah Utes (10-4) - 8.6

9. Oregon Ducks (10-3) - 9.4

10. Oregon State Beavers (10-3) - 11.1

11. LSU Tigers (10-4) - 11.3

12. Kansas State Wildcats (10-4) - 12.2

13. USC Trojans (11-3) - 12.5

14. Tulane Green Wave (12-2) - 14.7

15. Florida State Seminoles (10-3) - 14.9

16. Clemson Tigers (11-3) - 15.1

17. Texas Longhorns (8-5) - 16.1

18. Washington Huskies (11-2) - 17.6

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 18.8

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-4) - 20.4

21. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5) - 22.5

22. Louisville Cardinals (8-5) - 23.3

23. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-5) - 23.7

24. UCLA Bruins (9-4) - 24.8

25. Duke Blue Devils (9-4) - 25.3

26. Troy Trojans (12-2) - 27.9

27. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 28.4

28. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 29.7

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) - 30.2

30. Oklahoma Sooners (6-7) - 30.7

31. Ole Miss Rebels (8-5) - 32.3

32. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 33.2

33. Florida Gators (6-7) - 33.4

34. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-4) - 33.7

35. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4) - 34.5

36. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-5) - 35.7

(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (11-3) - 35.7

38. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 38.0

39. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.6

40. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4) - 38.7

41. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-6) - 39.1

42. Syracuse Orange (7-6) - 41.6

43. Maryland Terrapins (8-5) - 41.8

44. UCF Knights (9-5) - 45.1

45. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 45.4

46. Baylor Bears (6-7) - 46.9

47. South Alabama Jaguars (10-3) - 47.4

48. ECU Pirates (8-5) - 48.2

49. NC State Wolfpack (8-5) - 48.7

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-7) - 49.3

51. Memphis Tigers (7-6) - 52.0

52. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-6) - 52.6

53. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 52.8

54. Houston Cougars (8-5) - 53.7

55. Boise State Broncos (10-4) - 54.7

56. Wisconsin Badgers (7-6) - 55.3

57. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 55.5

58. Purdue Boilermakers (8-6) - 56.8

59. Missouri Tigers (6-7) - 57.3

60. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) - 59.9

61. Washington State Cougars (7-6) - 60.2

62. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-5) - 61.2

63. BYU Cougars (8-5) - 62.5

64. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 62.9

65. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 65.1

66. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 66.2

67. UAB Blazers (7-6) - 67.8

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 69.4

69. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 69.7

70. Ohio Bobcats (10-4) - 70.0

71. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.7

72. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-7) - 71.6

73. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-4) - 73.2

74. Liberty Flames (8-5) - 74.1

75. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) - 74.7

76. Toledo Rockets (9-5) - 75.1

77. North Texas Mean Green (7-7) - 75.9

78. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 78.5

79. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 79.0

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.1

81. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 84.7

83. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) - 84.8

84. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-7) - 85.7

85. San Diego State Aztecs (7-6) - 86.8

86. Wyoming Cowboys (7-6) - 87.0

87. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 87.2

88. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 88.8

89. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.2

90. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 89.5

91. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.6

92. Eastern Michigan Eagles (9-4) - 91.2

93. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 94.0

94. Buffalo Bulls (7-6) - 94.3

95. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.4

96. Connecticut Huskies (6-7) - 94.9

97. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 97.4

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 98.6

99. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.6

100. Miami University RedHawks (6-7) - 100.4

(tie) Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 100.4

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 100.9

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 100.9

104. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 103.8

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.5

106. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.8

107. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 107.0

108. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 107.1

109. Rice Owls (5-8) - 108.0

110. Utah State Aggies (6-7) - 108.6

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 108.8

112. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6) - 112.1

113. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.9

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.0

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.9

116. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 115.1

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 118.0

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.3

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-7) - 121.3

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.3

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.8

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.1

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 128.0

(tie) New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.0

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.4

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1