Monday, December 16, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Army-Navy Game

The Army-Navy Game actually had no impact on how the college football playoff would have been seeded if the Baggaley rankings were used. That is because Army would still be the fourth highest ranked conference champion. Army falls to #13, but Clemson also dropped to #15.:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship games have been played, we are using the winner of each game as the conference champion, of course.)

Game 1 #12 Clemson Tigers @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Texas Longhorns
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Army Black Knights
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Boise State Broncos
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that no Big 12 teams play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars, at #16, even though the Big 12 Conference Champion is #19 Arizona State Sun Devils. The ACC Conference Champion (#15 Clemson Tigers) is the fifth automatic bid. They are still ranked lower than the now #10 SMU Mustangs.
Conference representation: Big Ten - 4 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, MWC - 1 team, AAC - 1 team, Independent - 1 team.
First four teams outside the CFP: Miami Hurricanes, Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, and BYU Cougars.

2024 College Football Rankings - Final Pre-Bowl Rankings

On Saturday, Navy beat Army pretty handily. That primarily affected those two teams and anyone who played them. Here's how the final pre-bowl rankings after the conclusion of that final game worked out:

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) - 1.1

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 2.2

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 2.9

4. Texas Longhorns (11-2) - 4.3

5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 5.0

6. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 6.4

7. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 6.7

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 8.2

9. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.0

10. SMU Mustangs (11-2) - 9.5

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 11.5

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 13.3

13. Army Black Knights (11-2) - 13.5

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 13.7

15. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 14.4

16. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 15.3

17. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.7

18. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 18.0

19. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) - 19.6

20. UNLV Rebels (10-3) - 20.2

21. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 20.8

22. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.8

23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 23.4

24. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) - 25.2

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 25.2

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 27.6

27. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 28.6

28. Florida Gators (7-5) - 28.8

29. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 28.9

30. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 29.7

31. Tulane Green Wave (9-4) - 31.3

32. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 32.2

33. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 34.0

34. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 35.4

35. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 36.0

36. USC Trojans (6-6) - 36.1

37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 36.4

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 38.0

39. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 38.3

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.8

41. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) - 39.4

42. Ohio Bobcats (10-3) - 43.0

(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 43.0

44. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) - 45.0

45. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 45.2

46. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 45.4

(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.4

48. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 49.4

49. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 50.0

51. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 50.7

52. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.4

53. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 53.3

54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 53.8

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 54.2

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 55.4

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.4

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.6

59. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 60.6

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 62.0

61. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 63.4

(tie) West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.4

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 65.2

64. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 66.6

(tie) UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.6

66. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-4) - 66.7

67. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 66.8

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.1

69. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 67.6

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 68.5

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.7

72. Miami University RedHawks (8-5) - 69.9

73. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 71.5

74. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 72.1

75. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 72.7

76. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 75.0

77. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 76.8

78. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.2

79. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.8

80. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 80.2

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.6

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 82.2

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 83.9

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 84.9

85. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 85.2

86. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5

87. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 87.2

88. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.1

(tie) San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.1

90. Houston Cougars (4-8) - 90.5

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.8

92. North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.6

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.7

94. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.6

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 92.9

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 93.1

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 95.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.3

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 100.1

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.6

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 100.7

102. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 101.5

103. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.8

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 104.0

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.1

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 106.9

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.5

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 108.0

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.4

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 110.4

111. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3

112. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.5

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 113.5

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 114.2

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.0

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.6

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.9

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.1

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.3

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.6

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.5

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.7

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.5

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.5

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.1

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.9

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Saturday, December 7, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Championship Week

Here's the Week 15 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship games have been played, we are using the winner of each game as the conference champion, of course.)

Game 1 #12 Clemson Tigers @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Texas Longhorns
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Army Black Knights
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Boise State Broncos
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that no Big 12 teams play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #16 even though the Big 12 Conference Champion is #19 Arizona State Sun Devils. The ACC Conference Champion (#15 Clemson Tigers) is the fifth automatic bid. They are still ranked lower than the #11 SMU Mustangs.
Conference representation: Big Ten - 4 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, MWC - 1 team, AAC - 1 team, Independent - 1 team.
First four teams outside the CFP: Miami Hurricanes, Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, and BYU Cougars.

These results can be considered how things would shake out if "most deserving" were the criteria for selection, as these are the teams with the best resume when you take all games into account. Of course, that is not the selection criteria. The selection criteria is the poorly defined and very subjective "best team" which allows for brands and biases to come into play in the committee's decisions.
It is also interesting to note that the Army Black Knights still have a game remaining - against Navy. The results of that game will not affect the CFP Committee's decision, but we will explore how it affects our results next week anyway.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 15 (Championship Week)

Championship Week consists of just the top two teams in most conferences playing for the conferenc title. Here is how the results of those games affected our rankings. As you may note, some conference champions are not the highest ranked teams from their conference. That is because the championship game is not weighted any higher in our calculations than any other game. It is especially interesting to note, for instance, that Texas is still ranked higher than Georgia, even though Georgia has now beaten them twice. Of course, Texas hasn't lost to anyone else, and Georgia lost two games, including to Ole Miss by 18 points, which is why their overall season is not as good as Texas's.:

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) - 1.3

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 3.1

4. Texas Longhorns (11-2) - 4.6

5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 5.3

6. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 6.9

7. Army Black Knights (11-1) - 7.1

8. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 7.2

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 8.9

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.6

11. SMU Mustangs (11-2) - 10.4

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 12.2

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 13.9

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 14.2

15. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 14.8

16. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 15.6

17. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.7

18. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 17.9

19. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) - 19.2

20. UNLV Rebels (10-3) - 19.5

21. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.2

22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 22.4

23. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) - 24.1

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 24.2

25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 26.7

26. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 27.6

27. Florida Gators (7-5) - 27.7

(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 27.7

29. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 28.8

30. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 31.5

31. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 31.7

32. Tulane Green Wave (9-4) - 33.1

33. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 34.8

34. USC Trojans (6-6) - 35.4

35. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 35.6

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 35.9

37. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 37.0

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 37.5

39. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 37.8

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.1

41. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) - 38.9

42. Ohio Bobcats (10-3) - 42.9

43. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 43.0

44. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) - 44.8

45. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 45.1

46. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.2

47. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 45.4

48. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 49.4

49. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 50.0

51. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 50.7

52. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.5

53. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 53.3

54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 53.9

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 54.2

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 55.4

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.5

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.6

59. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 60.7

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 61.4

61. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 63.4

(tie) West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.4

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 65.2

64. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-4) - 66.6

(tie) North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 66.6

(tie) UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.6

67. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 66.9

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.1

69. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 67.7

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 68.7

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.7

72. Miami University RedHawks (8-5) - 69.9

73. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 71.5

74. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 72.1

75. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 72.5

76. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 74.9

77. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 77.1

78. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.2

79. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.8

80. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 80.2

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.7

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 82.2

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 83.7

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 85.0

85. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 85.2

86. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 86.4

87. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 86.6

88. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.1

89. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.2

90. Houston Cougars (4-8) - 90.6

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.8

92. North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.6

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.7

94. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.7

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 93.0

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 93.2

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 96.1

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.1

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 99.9

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.5

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 101.0

102. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 101.3

103. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.6

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 103.9

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.6

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 107.0

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.3

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 107.9

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.4

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 110.4

111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.5

112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.9

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 113.5

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 113.9

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.0

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.6

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.9

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.0

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.2

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.7

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.4

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.5

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.5

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.1

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.9

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Sunday, December 1, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 14

Here's the Week 14 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Now that the championship game matchups are set, the champion is assumed to be the higher ranked team between the two participants in that game.)

Game 1 #12 Army Black Knights @ #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 2 #11 Miami Hurricanes @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 SMU Mustangs
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Texas Longhorns
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #15, but they are not in the championship game, which features #20 Iowa State Cyclones vs #23 Arizona State Sun Devils.
First four teams outside the CFP: Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, BYU Cougars, and Tennessee Volunteers.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 14

 The regular season is essentially over. How are the teams ranked heading in to conference championship week? Well, the first thing we'll say is that this season has been so full of parity, that there isn't a clear #1. For now, we'll give that (temporary) ranking to Oregon. As far as we are concerned, there is a clear Top 15 teams. After that, things get even muddier, for instance with three teams tied for #23.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) - 1.4

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 1.7

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 3.1

4. Texas Longhorns (11-1) - 4.1

5. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - 6.6

6. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - 6.7

7. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 6.9

8. SMU Mustangs (11-1) - 7.1

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - 8.6

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - 9.9

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 11.5

12. Army Black Knights (10-1) - 12.0

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 12.8

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - 13.7

15. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 14.7

16. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 17.1

17. Clemson Tigers (9-3) - 17.8

(tie) UNLV Rebels (10-2) - 17.8

19. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) - 18.1

20. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) - 19.6

21. LSU Tigers (8-4) - 21.7

22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 22.9

23. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) - 25.0

(tie) Tulane Green Wave (9-3) - 25.0

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 25.0

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 26.7

27. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) - 27.6

28. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - 28.4

29. Florida Gators (7-5) - 28.5

30. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - 28.8

31. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 31.1

32. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-2) - 31.8

33. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 32.6

34. Baylor Bears (7-4-1) - 35.2

35. USC Trojans (6-6) - 36.1

36. Syracuse Orange (9-3) - 36.4

37. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 36.5

38. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 38.2

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) - 38.5

40. Missouri Tigers (9-3) - 38.9

(tie) Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6) - 38.9

42. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 42.1

43. Kansas Jayhawks (5-7) - 44.0

44. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) - 44.8

45. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 45.4

46. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 48.1

47. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) - 48.3

48. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 49.6

(tie) Washington Huskies (6-6) - 49.6

50. Ohio Bobcats (9-3) - 50.3

51. James Madison Dukes (8-4) - 52.0

52. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) - 52.1

53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) - 52.3

54. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3) - 52.8

55. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 53.0

56. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) - 56.1

57. Texas State Bobcats (7-5) - 57.2

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7) - 58.4

59. Miami University RedHawks (8-4) - 60.6

60. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) - 61.0

61. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) - 62.1

62. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5-1) - 63.1

63. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) - 63.9

64. UCLA Bruins (5-7) - 64.2

65. UCF Knights (4-8) - 66.8

66. California Golden Bears (6-6) - 67.3

67. Kentucky Wildcats (4-8) - 67.8

68. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 67.9

69. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 68.2

70. Washington State Cougars (8-4) - 69.1

71. Utah Utes (5-7) - 69.5

72. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 70.8

73. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 71.5

74. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) - 71.9

75. NC State Wolfpack (6-6) - 72.5

76. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 76.6

77. Wisconsin Badgers (5-7) - 77.5

78. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 78.5

79. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) - 78.7

80. Virginia Cavaliers (5-7) - 79.9

81. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 80.0

82. Colorado State Rams (8-4) - 81.8

83. Liberty Flames (8-3) - 84.8

84. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 85.9

85. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) - 86.2

86. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-6) - 86.7

87. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) - 87.7

88. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 88.3

89. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 88.8

(tie) Houston Cougars (4-8) - 88.8

91. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 90.5

92. Northwestern Wildcats (4-8) - 91.4

93. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) - 91.5

(tie) North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 91.5

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 92.2

96. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 92.9

97. South Florida Bulls (6-6) - 95.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 98.4

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 99.4

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.6

101. Troy Trojans (4-8) - 100.7

102. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-9) - 101.8

103. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 102.0

104. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 104.0

105. Rice Owls (4-8) - 105.4

106. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 106.9

107. Hawaii Warriors (5-7) - 107.4

108. Florida State Seminoles (2-10) - 107.8

109. Georgia State Panthers (3-9) - 108.5

110. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 111.2

111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-10) - 111.3

112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.4

113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 112.8

114. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 114.3

115. Akron Zips (4-8) - 115.2

116. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10) - 115.5

117. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 115.8

118. Ball State Cardinals (3-9) - 117.0

119. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 119.2

120. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 120.6

121. Temple Owls (3-9) - 121.5

122. New Mexico Lobos (5-7) - 122.9

123. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 123.4

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-9) - 124.1

125. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 124.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-10) - 125.3

127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 125.4

128. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 127.6

129. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 129.2

130. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) - 129.3

131. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-9) - 130.8

132. Kennesaw State Owls (2-10) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 132.6

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-12) - 135.0

Sunday, November 24, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 13

Here's the Week 13 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Army Black Knights @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 SMU Mustangs @ #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 3 #10 Ole Miss Rebels @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs
Game 4 #9 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #8 Indiana Hoosiers

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Texas Longhorns
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out. The highest rank Big 12 team is still the BYU Cougars at #15.
First four teams outside the CFP: Alabama Crimson Tide, South Carolina Gamecocks, BYU Cougars, and Clemson Tigers.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 13

 Week 13 was a crazy week. How much did it shake up our rankings? Have a look:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) - 1.0

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) - 2.9

4. Texas Longhorns (10-1) - 4.1

5. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) - 6.0

6. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) - 6.2

7. Boise State Broncos (10-1) - 7.7

8. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) - 8.1

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1) - 9.3

10. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) - 9.8

11. SMU Mustangs (10-1) - 10.4

12. Army Black Knights (9-1) - 11.4

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) - 13.2

14. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) - 14.0

15. BYU Cougars (9-2) - 15.6

16. Clemson Tigers (9-2) - 15.8

17. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) - 17.8

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 18.2

19. Louisville Cardinals (7-4) - 18.6

20. UNLV Rebels (9-2) - 18.9

21. Kansas State Wildcats (8-3) - 21.8

22. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2) - 21.9

23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) - 22.4

24. LSU Tigers (7-4) - 25.1

25. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) - 26.1

26. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) - 26.9

27. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6) - 27.6

28. Florida Gators (6-5) - 28.9

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) - 29.5

30. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (9-2) - 29.7

31. Oklahoma Sooners (6-5) - 30.3

32. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) - 30.6

33. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-5) - 33.9

(tie) USC Trojans (6-5) - 33.9

35. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6) - 34.3

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-4) - 36.2

37. Missouri Tigers (8-3) - 36.5

38. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 39.5

39. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-5) - 40.1

40. Syracuse Orange (8-3) - 41.5

41. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 43.3

42. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-4) - 43.5

43. Michigan Wolverines (6-5) - 45.1

44. Duke Blue Devils (8-3) - 46.5

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 46.6

46. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 46.9

47. Baylor Bears (6-4-1) - 47.1

48. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) - 48.5

49. Boston College Eagles (6-5) - 49.5

50. TCU Horned Frogs (7-4) - 50.2

51. Bowling Green Falcons (7-4) - 50.4

52. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 51.2

53. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-3) - 51.6

54. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-4-1) - 51.9

55. Ohio Bobcats (8-3) - 52.6

56. Washington State Cougars (8-3) - 57.6

57. UCF Knights (4-7) - 58.2

58. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6) - 58.3

59. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5) - 59.1

60. Auburn Tigers (5-6) - 59.9

61. Georgia Southern Eagles (7-4) - 61.6

62. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 62.2

63. Kentucky Wildcats (4-7) - 62.3

64. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 63.4

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-5) - 63.7

66. Texas State Bobcats (6-5) - 63.9

67. South Alabama Jaguars (6-5) - 66.1

68. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) - 68.7

69. UCLA Bruins (4-7) - 68.9

70. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-4) - 70.2

71. Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) - 71.2

72. Miami University RedHawks (7-4) - 71.8

73. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-7) - 74.4

74. NC State Wolfpack (5-6) - 75.2

75. Liberty Flames (8-2) - 75.4

76. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-3) - 76.2

77. Virginia Cavaliers (5-6) - 76.4

78. Toledo Rockets (7-4) - 77.8

79. ECU Pirates (7-4) - 78.2

80. Connecticut Huskies (7-4) - 78.5

81. Michigan State Spartans (5-6) - 78.6

82. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-3) - 79.4

83. Utah Utes (4-7) - 81.6

84. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-5) - 83.7

85. South Florida Bulls (6-5) - 85.3

86. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5) - 86.6

87. Colorado State Rams (7-4) - 87.6

88. Maryland Terrapins (4-7) - 89.6

89. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-7) - 90.4

90. San Jose State Spartans (6-5) - 90.6

91. UTSA Roadrunners (6-5) - 91.0

92. Houston Cougars (4-7) - 91.3

93. Buffalo Bulls (7-4) - 92.1

94. North Texas Mean Green (5-6) - 92.7

(tie) Stanford Cardinal (3-8) - 92.7

96. Northwestern Wildcats (4-7) - 95.1

97. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-6) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (4-7) - 97.4

99. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) - 98.8

100. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-6) - 99.6

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8) - 99.9

102. Oregon State Beavers (5-6) - 101.8

103. Western Michigan Broncos (5-6) - 102.9

104. Georgia State Panthers (3-8) - 104.6

105. Florida State Seminoles (2-9) - 105.0

106. Troy Trojans (3-8) - 105.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 108.3

108. Charlotte 49ers (4-7) - 108.6

109. UAB Blazers (3-8) - 108.7

110. Rice Owls (3-8) - 110.0

111. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-6) - 110.1

112. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) - 111.3

113. Utah State Aggies (4-7) - 113.7

114. Ball State Cardinals (3-8) - 114.1

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-7) - 114.9

116. Air Force Falcons (4-7) - 116.1

117. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9) - 116.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-7) - 119.1

119. Akron Zips (3-8) - 119.6

120. Temple Owls (3-8) - 120.2

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.6

122. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-9) - 122.1

123. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-8) - 123.2

124. San Diego State Aztecs (3-8) - 123.5

125. FIU Golden Panthers (3-8) - 124.5

126. Purdue Boilermakers (1-10) - 125.9

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-9) - 126.9

128. Wyoming Cowboys (2-9) - 127.6

129. New Mexico State Aggies (3-8) - 127.7

130. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-8) - 130.6

131. Kennesaw State Owls (2-9) - 130.7

132. UTEP Miners (2-9) - 131.7

133. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-10) - 131.9

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-11) - 134.9

Saturday, November 16, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 12

Here's the Week 12 Update:


If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point.)

Game 1 #12 Miami Hurricanes @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #6 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 3 #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Georgia Bulldogs @ #8 Texas Longhorns

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Boise State Broncos
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Note that the Big 12 Winner does not play in the playoff at all at this point the way our evaluation works out.

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 12

How did BYU's loss to #54 Kansas affect their standing in the rankings this week? What about Oregon's too-close victory over #66 Wisconsin? Here are the results:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) - 1.5

2. Oregon Ducks (11-0) - 2.2

3. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 3.0

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) - 4.9

5. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 5.6

6. Boise State Broncos (9-1) - 6.7

7. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 7.6

8. Texas Longhorns (9-1) - 7.7

9. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) - 8.3

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) - 8.4

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) - 10.8

12. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.0

13. SMU Mustangs (9-1) - 12.5

14. BYU Cougars (9-1) - 13.9

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) - 15.1

16. Clemson Tigers (8-2) - 16.6

17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) - 18.3

18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) - 19.0

19. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) - 19.1

20. UNLV Rebels (8-2) - 19.7

21. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) - 20.5

(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) - 20.5

23. Louisville Cardinals (6-4) - 24.1

24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 24.6

25. Kansas State Wildcats (7-3) - 25.4

26. LSU Tigers (6-4) - 25.7

27. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 27.9

28. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) - 28.4

29. James Madison Dukes (8-2) - 31.0

30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-3) - 31.1

31. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) - 31.3

32. USC Trojans (5-5) - 32.7

33. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-2) - 33.0

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-5) - 35.2

35. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 37.0

36. Navy Midshipmen (7-3) - 37.2

37. Florida Gators (5-5) - 37.3

38. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 37.6

39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

40. Kansas Jayhawks (4-6) - 41.7

41. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 42.4

42. Missouri Tigers (7-3) - 43.3

43. Washington State Cougars (8-2) - 43.4

44. Syracuse Orange (7-3) - 45.0

45. Memphis Tigers (9-2) - 45.3

46. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-5) - 47.1

47. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-3) - 47.7

48. Texas State Bobcats (6-4) - 48.2

49. UCF Knights (4-6) - 49.8

50. Baylor Bears (5-4-1) - 50.1

51. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 50.6

52. Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) - 52.1

53. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 52.3

54. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 53.1

55. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) - 55.7

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4-1) - 55.9

57. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4) - 56.0

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) - 58.6

59. Wisconsin Badgers (5-5) - 59.0

60. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-4) - 59.9

61. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3) - 60.5

62. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 61.2

63. Boston College Eagles (5-5) - 61.3

64. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) - 64.2

65. Toledo Rockets (7-3) - 64.6

66. Sam Houston Bearkats (8-2) - 65.5

67. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 65.6

68. California Golden Bears (5-5) - 66.2

69. Ohio Bobcats (7-3) - 69.1

(tie) UCLA Bruins (4-6) - 69.1

71. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-4) - 69.7

72. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) - 71.0

73. Auburn Tigers (4-6) - 73.1

74. South Alabama Jaguars (5-5) - 73.4

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-6) - 73.6

76. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 76.0

77. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 76.4

78. Miami University RedHawks (6-4) - 78.2

79. Michigan State Spartans (4-6) - 78.8

80. Maryland Terrapins (4-6) - 80.9

81. Colorado State Rams (7-3) - 81.7

82. Utah Utes (4-6) - 82.4

83. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) - 83.4

84. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (7-3) - 83.9

(tie) Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) - 83.9

86. North Texas Mean Green (5-5) - 85.0

87. Arizona Wildcats (4-6) - 87.9

88. Houston Cougars (4-6) - 88.3

89. San Jose State Spartans (6-4) - 88.8

90. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-5) - 89.1

91. ECU Pirates (6-4) - 89.5

92. UTSA Roadrunners (5-5) - 91.3

93. South Florida Bulls (5-5) - 92.6

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 93.8

95. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-5) - 95.0

96. Stanford Cardinal (3-7) - 95.8

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-4) - 96.6

(tie) Liberty Flames (7-2) - 96.6

99. Western Michigan Broncos (5-5) - 97.5

100. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 99.8

101. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 100.4

102. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) - 101.6

103. Troy Trojans (3-7) - 102.4

104. Rice Owls (3-7) - 104.4

105. Oregon State Beavers (4-6) - 106.2

106. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-5) - 107.2

107. Hawaii Warriors (4-7) - 107.4

108. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 108.0

109. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 108.3

110. Ball State Cardinals (3-7) - 110.2

111. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-6) - 110.7

112. Charlotte 49ers (3-7) - 111.8

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 112.4

114. Georgia State Panthers (2-8) - 113.1

115. Temple Owls (3-7) - 116.5

116. UAB Blazers (2-8) - 116.9

117. Utah State Aggies (3-7) - 118.4

118. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-8) - 118.7

119. Air Force Falcons (3-7) - 120.2

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-7) - 121.1

121. New Mexico Lobos (5-6) - 121.3

122. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7) - 121.4

123. FIU Golden Panthers (3-7) - 121.6

124. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-7) - 121.9

125. Akron Zips (2-8) - 122.8

126. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-8) - 126.2

127. Purdue Boilermakers (1-9) - 126.8

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 128.1

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-8) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-8) - 130.1

131. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.6

132. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-9) - 131.4

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-9) - 132.4

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-10) - 134.9

Monday, November 11, 2024

College Football Playoff - Baggaley Version - After Week 11

Here's the Week 11 Update:

If the Baggaley Rankings were used to determine the seedings of the CFP...

(Reminder: Highest ranked team in each conference is assumed to be the conference champion at this point)

Game 1 #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Indiana Hoosiers
Game 2 #11 Georgia Bulldogs @ #6 Ohio State Buckeys
Game 3 #10 BYU Cougars @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 Alabama Crimson Tide

Game 5 Winner of Game 1 vs. #4 Boise State Broncos
Game 6 Winner of Game 2 vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Winner of Game 3 vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Winner of Game 4 vs. #1 Oregon Ducks

________________________________________________

Special Feature: One of the advantages of our analysis system is that we can project the impact of opportunities of in the future schedule of teams - taking into account ALL games, so the future schedule of teams you have already played also impacts this ranking. Using this tool, we project the teams with the best opportunities to improve their seeding and how that could change their ranking. Of course, they still have to actually win their games. But using that tool, here is the Top 25. Team records show current wins, losses and games remaining. Conference championship games are not included, since those matchups have not yet been determined.

1. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0-2) - 1.3
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0-2) - 1.8
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1-3) - 3.3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1-3) - 4.7
5. Army Black Knights (9-0-3) - 5.8
6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2-2) - 6.2
7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1-2) - 7.1
8. BYU Cougars (9-0-3) - 7.8
9. Texas Longhorns (8-1-3) - 8.0
10. SMU Mustangs (8-1-3) - 10.4
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2-3) - 10.5
12. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2-3) - 11.8
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1-3) - 13.0
14. Boise State Broncos (8-1-3) - 13.6
15. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2-3) - 17.2
16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3-3) - 17.3
17. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1-3) - 18.5
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3-3) - 18.8
19. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2-3) - 21.3
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4-2) - 21.5
21. Clemson Tigers (7-2-3) - 21.6
22. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2-3) - 22.6
23. Tulane Green Wave (8-2-2) - 22.8
24. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5-2) - 23.2
25. Navy Midshipmen (7-2-3) - 23.5

As this plays out, it sets up the potential CFP like this:

Game 1 #12 Georgia Bulldogs @ #5 Oregon Ducks
Game 2 #11 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Game 3 #10 SMU Mustangs @ #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game 4 #9 Texas Longhorns @ #8 BYU Cougars

Game 5 Game 1 winner vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes
Game 6 Game 2 winner vs. #3 Ole Miss Rebels
Game 7 Game 3 winner vs. #2 Army Black Knights
Game 8 Game 4 winner vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers

_________________________________________

Discussion: Teams that moved up in the rankings have one of the more difficult schedules ahead of them. Teams that moved down in the rankings have one of the easier schedules ahead of them. This can be taken as it is applied, that winning a difficult game moves you up in the rankings more. Or it can mean that you are more likely to lose than a team with an easy schedule.

Remember what really matters in this system is how you perform against the schedule given to you. If you play an easy team, you should win by a lot. If you play a hard team, you can barely win and the benefit should be similar. Losing to a hard team doesn't cost you as much as losing to a team you should beat by a lot. Also, as the season goes on, there is more and more evidence that the teams you have already played are difficult or easy, and so the difficulty of your previous schedule also impacts this projection. So when BYU moves up from #10 to #8, Texas stays and #9 and Alabama drops from #8 to #11, it means that there is more "as yet unrealized potential" in BYU's schedule to positively impact their ranking than in Texas or Alabama's schedules. (This is the beauty of analyzing a team, their schedule, and their opponent's schedules, based on actual game score and independent of the names on the helmet or the conference they belong to.) And before you doubt the accuracy of this, remember that Alabama is playing FCS team Mercer at home this week, part of the SEC's tradition of having many teams play a nobody late in the schedule to give them essentially an extra bye week, since unlike the other power conferences, they only play 8 conference games.

Another interesting feature of this is that having fewer games remaining on your schedule benefits you in this analysis. This reflects that there is less uncertainty in your remaining schedule, because just like you could win a game, you might also lose it. This, in part, explains Miami's jump up from #13 to #7 in this analysis. Take all of that into consideration when looking at this ranking.

Saturday, November 9, 2024

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 11

Indiana played a relatively close game against a mediocre Michigan team. As a result, they dropped from #1 to #2 in the rankings. That's what happens when you have a weak schedule and you play a closer game than you ought to. Here are the complete results of our rankings after 11 weeks of the 2024 season:

1. Oregon Ducks (10-0) - 1.3

2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) - 2.7

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) - 2.8

4. Army Black Knights (9-0) - 4.1

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) - 5.8

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - 6.3

7. Boise State Broncos (8-1) - 6.9

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) - 7.8

9. Texas Longhorns (8-1) - 8.8

10. BYU Cougars (9-0) - 9.6

11. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) - 11.0

12. SMU Mustangs (8-1) - 12.3

13. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) - 12.5

14. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) - 13.1

15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) - 15.5

16. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) - 16.3

17. Clemson Tigers (7-2) - 17.4

18. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) - 18.1

19. UNLV Rebels (7-2) - 21.3

20. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) - 21.6

21. LSU Tigers (6-3) - 21.7

(tie) Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) - 21.7

23. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) - 24.8

(tie) Tulane Green Wave (8-2) - 24.8

(tie) Washington State Cougars (8-1) - 24.8

26. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-1) - 27.0

27. Iowa State Cyclones (7-2) - 27.1

28. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-5) - 27.4

29. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2) - 28.7

30. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 29.1

31. Navy Midshipmen (7-2) - 29.6

32. James Madison Dukes (7-2) - 30.0

33. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) - 30.4

34. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) - 34.8

35. USC Trojans (4-5) - 35.9

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-4) - 36.1

37. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) - 36.6

38. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) - 40.1

39. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4) - 40.3

40. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) - 40.5

41. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 42.6

(tie) Missouri Tigers (7-2) - 42.6

43. Washington Huskies (5-5) - 45.3

44. Duke Blue Devils (7-3) - 46.7

45. Florida Gators (4-5) - 46.9

46. Texas State Bobcats (5-4) - 48.7

47. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4) - 50.4

48. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-3) - 50.5

49. Boston College Eagles (5-4) - 50.8

50. Oklahoma Sooners (5-5) - 51.6

51. UCF Knights (4-6) - 51.9

52. Baylor Bears (5-4) - 53.0

53. Memphis Tigers (8-2) - 54.0

54. Kansas Jayhawks (3-6) - 54.2

55. Michigan Wolverines (5-5) - 54.8

56. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) - 55.1

57. California Golden Bears (5-4) - 55.9

58. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) - 56.5

59. UCLA Bruins (4-5) - 57.1

60. Sam Houston Bearkats (7-2) - 58.0

61. Syracuse Orange (6-3) - 58.8

62. Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) - 61.4

63. Bowling Green Falcons (5-4) - 62.4

64. TCU Horned Frogs (6-4) - 62.8

65. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-4) - 63.2

66. Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) - 63.8

67. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-4) - 66.6

68. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3) - 68.0

69. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4) - 68.1

70. North Texas Mean Green (5-4) - 69.8

71. Michigan State Spartans (4-5) - 70.3

72. Toledo Rockets (6-3) - 72.1

73. Kentucky Wildcats (3-6) - 72.3

74. Maryland Terrapins (4-5) - 73.7

75. Old Dominion Monarchs (4-5) - 74.1

76. Connecticut Huskies (7-3) - 74.2

77. Houston Cougars (4-5) - 77.3

78. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 79.3

79. Utah Utes (4-5) - 80.7

80. Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) - 82.2

81. San Jose State Spartans (6-3) - 82.3

82. South Alabama Jaguars (4-5) - 82.5

83. Ohio Bobcats (6-3) - 82.6

84. Miami University RedHawks (5-4) - 83.1

85. Colorado State Rams (6-3) - 84.0

86. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5) - 84.4

87. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-3) - 84.5

88. Auburn Tigers (3-6) - 85.0

89. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-4) - 86.6

90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-4) - 88.3

91. ECU Pirates (5-4) - 89.3

92. Liberty Flames (6-2) - 92.5

93. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 93.3

94. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5) - 94.9

95. Oregon State Beavers (4-5) - 95.5

96. Hawaii Warriors (4-6) - 95.7

97. Buffalo Bulls (5-4) - 96.7

98. Arizona Wildcats (3-6) - 99.1

99. South Florida Bulls (4-5) - 99.2

100. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-5) - 99.5

101. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) - 100.5

102. Rice Owls (3-7) - 102.7

103. UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) - 103.9

104. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4) - 104.8

105. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) - 105.0

106. Charlotte 49ers (3-6) - 105.7

107. Florida State Seminoles (1-9) - 107.3

108. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8) - 107.4

109. Stanford Cardinal (2-7) - 107.8

110. Troy Trojans (2-7) - 109.5

111. Ball State Cardinals (3-6) - 110.2

112. Georgia State Panthers (2-7) - 111.5

113. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) - 113.1

114. UAB Blazers (2-7) - 113.3

115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-6) - 115.9

116. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-7) - 117.0

117. Temple Owls (2-7) - 117.2

118. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6) - 118.5

119. Akron Zips (2-7) - 119.7

120. San Diego State Aztecs (3-6) - 119.8

121. FIU Golden Panthers (3-6) - 121.3

(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6) - 121.3

123. Purdue Boilermakers (1-8) - 123.2

124. Air Force Falcons (2-7) - 124.0

125. New Mexico Lobos (4-6) - 124.4

126. Utah State Aggies (2-7) - 125.3

127. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-7) - 126.7

128. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) - 127.9

129. Wyoming Cowboys (2-7) - 128.5

130. New Mexico State Aggies (2-7) - 129.8

131. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-8) - 130.5

132. UTEP Miners (2-8) - 130.7

133. Kennesaw State Owls (1-8) - 133.0

134. Kent State Golden Flashes (0-9) - 134.9

Monday, November 4, 2024

2024 College Football Rankings - Week 10

Tomorrow, the CFP Committee will come out with their first rankings of the 2024 season. Their stated purpose is to rank the teams based on who is "best" including such qualities as the "eye test." They specifically are not trying to rank teams based on who is "most deserving." Which sounds to us like an excuse for ranking teams higher based on which conference they belong to, whether they actually deserve to be in the playoff or not.

Regardless, our ranking system analyzes the resume of each team - essentially evaluating each team on whether they are "most deserving" to be in the playoff or not. That is a different metric than the CFP Committee's evaluation. We feel it is better in terms of fair competition. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. We are sure others will disagree with our ratings. And that's what's really fun. We have a lot of actual game data to support our opinions, (not just broad generalities like "my team plays in the most difficult conference in America") but we'd love to hear you support yours as well.

If the Baggaley Football Rankings were used to seed teams (highest ranked team from each conference is considered the "conference champion" until there actually is one), here is how the seedings would have turned out based on rankings after 10 weeks in this inaugural season of the 12-team playoff:

Round 1

Game 1 - #12 SMU Mustangs @ #5 Oregon Ducks

Game 2 - #11 Texas Longhorns @ #6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game 3 - #10 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #7 Georgia Bulldogs

Game 4 - #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #8 BYU Cougars


Quarterfinals

Game 5 - #4 Boise State (MWC Champion) vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6 - #3 Army Black Knights (AAC Champion) vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 - #2 Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion) vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 - #1 Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten Champion) vs. Game 4 winner

(Game 5 winner plays Game 8 winner and Game 6 winner plays Game 7 winner in the semi-finals with the winner of those two games meetings in the finals.)

Conference representation: Big Ten - 3 teams, SEC - 3 teams, ACC - 2 teams, Big 12 - 1 team, Independent - 1 team, AAC (Group of 5) - 1 team, MWC (Group of 5) - 1 team.

Just outside the cut: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC), Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten), Louisville Cardinals (ACC), Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12).

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

2022 College Football Rankings - Week 15

So, the obvious question on seeing the final ratings for 2022 and seeing that the TCU Horned Frogs ended up in #6 is was this a result of being blown out so badly in the championship game by Georgia, or should they have been in the playoff at all? The short answer is that going into bowl season, TCU had the fifth best resume among teams, suggesting that losing in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State should have knocked them out, and that even before the four-team playoff, there was another team that was more deserving of being in that playoff in the first place. Which team was that? See below for the full rankings heading into bowl season:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) - 1.2

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-0) - 1.8

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) - 4.6

5. TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) - 5.5

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 6.7

7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - 6.8

(tie) Utah Utes (10-3) - 6.8

9. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) - 9.0

10. Oregon Ducks (9-3) - 10.9

11. USC Trojans (11-2) - 11.3

12. Clemson Tigers (11-2) - 11.4

13. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 12.9

14. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) - 14.5

15. Tulane Green Wave (11-2) - 15.6

16. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) - 15.8

17. LSU Tigers (9-4) - 16.4

18. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 18.5

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 19.5

20. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 20.4

21. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) - 21.4

22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 23.2

23. Florida Gators (6-6) - 24.8

(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) - 24.8

25. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) - 25.6

26. South Alabama Jaguars (10-2) - 27.6

27. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) - 27.9

28. Troy Trojans (11-2) - 28.0

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4) - 28.6

30. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 30.5

31. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 30.6

32. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) - 30.8

33. UTSA Roadrunners (11-2) - 34.8

34. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 35.2

35. Duke Blue Devils (8-4) - 36.7

36. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) - 37.2

37. UCF Knights (9-4) - 37.5

38. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.5

39. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4) - 38.6

40. Baylor Bears (6-6) - 38.7

41. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 38.8

42. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 39.8

43. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) - 43.3

44. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 44.4

45. Washington State Cougars (7-5) - 46.3

46. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) - 46.7

47. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) - 47.8

48. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 48.5

49. Missouri Tigers (6-6) - 49.0

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-6) - 49.2

51. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 49.7

52. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 49.9

53. Purdue Boilermakers (8-5) - 50.6

54. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 54.0

55. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 56.2

56. Houston Cougars (7-5) - 56.3

57. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) - 57.9

58. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 58.1

59. Boise State Broncos (9-4) - 59.0

60. Memphis Tigers (6-6) - 59.8

61. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 60.0

(tie) Wisconsin Badgers (6-6) - 60.0

63. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 62.9

64. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 64.1

65. BYU Cougars (7-5) - 64.7

66. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3) - 66.9

67. UAB Blazers (6-6) - 68.3

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 68.4

69. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) - 69.0

70. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.3

71. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 70.5

72. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 70.8

73. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 71.1

74. Liberty Flames (8-4) - 73.8

75. San Jose State Spartans (7-4) - 74.2

76. North Texas Mean Green (7-6) - 75.7

77. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) - 76.0

78. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 77.9

79. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 79.5

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.3

81. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) - 82.0

83. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 84.2

84. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 85.9

85. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 86.9

86. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 87.9

87. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) - 88.0

88. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5) - 88.1

89. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.0

90. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.3

91. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 90.0

92. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 93.0

93. Connecticut Huskies (6-6) - 93.6

94. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.2

95. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 96.1

96. Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) - 97.0

97. Buffalo Bulls (6-6) - 97.2

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 97.8

99. Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 98.7

100. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.1

101. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 100.7

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 101.6

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 101.6

104. Utah State Aggies (6-6) - 103.4

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.9

106. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 105.2

107. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.1

108. Rice Owls (5-7) - 106.3

109. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 108.7

110. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 108.8

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 109.3

112. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.0

113. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 113.8

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.2

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.6

116. New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) - 115.6

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 117.4

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.4

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-6) - 120.7

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.5

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.4

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.3

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 127.8

129. New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.1

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.5

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1

2022 College Football Final Rankings

In 2022, the Georgia Bulldogs maintained their dominance, repeating as champions. Here are how the final rankings turned out for 2022:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (15-0) - 1.0

2. Michigan Wolverines (13-1) - 2.0

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 3.0

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-2) - 4.1

5. Tennessee Volunteers (11-2) - 5.4

6. TCU Horned Frogs (13-2) - 6.2

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 6.4

8. Utah Utes (10-4) - 8.6

9. Oregon Ducks (10-3) - 9.4

10. Oregon State Beavers (10-3) - 11.1

11. LSU Tigers (10-4) - 11.3

12. Kansas State Wildcats (10-4) - 12.2

13. USC Trojans (11-3) - 12.5

14. Tulane Green Wave (12-2) - 14.7

15. Florida State Seminoles (10-3) - 14.9

16. Clemson Tigers (11-3) - 15.1

17. Texas Longhorns (8-5) - 16.1

18. Washington Huskies (11-2) - 17.6

19. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 18.8

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-4) - 20.4

21. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5) - 22.5

22. Louisville Cardinals (8-5) - 23.3

23. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-5) - 23.7

24. UCLA Bruins (9-4) - 24.8

25. Duke Blue Devils (9-4) - 25.3

26. Troy Trojans (12-2) - 27.9

27. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 28.4

28. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 29.7

29. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5) - 30.2

30. Oklahoma Sooners (6-7) - 30.7

31. Ole Miss Rebels (8-5) - 32.3

32. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 33.2

33. Florida Gators (6-7) - 33.4

34. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-4) - 33.7

35. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4) - 34.5

36. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-5) - 35.7

(tie) UTSA Roadrunners (11-3) - 35.7

38. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 38.0

39. James Madison Dukes (8-3) - 38.6

40. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4) - 38.7

41. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-6) - 39.1

42. Syracuse Orange (7-6) - 41.6

43. Maryland Terrapins (8-5) - 41.8

44. UCF Knights (9-5) - 45.1

45. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 45.4

46. Baylor Bears (6-7) - 46.9

47. South Alabama Jaguars (10-3) - 47.4

48. ECU Pirates (8-5) - 48.2

49. NC State Wolfpack (8-5) - 48.7

50. Kansas Jayhawks (6-7) - 49.3

51. Memphis Tigers (7-6) - 52.0

52. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-6) - 52.6

53. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 52.8

54. Houston Cougars (8-5) - 53.7

55. Boise State Broncos (10-4) - 54.7

56. Wisconsin Badgers (7-6) - 55.3

57. Iowa State Cyclones (4-8) - 55.5

58. Purdue Boilermakers (8-6) - 56.8

59. Missouri Tigers (6-7) - 57.3

60. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) - 59.9

61. Washington State Cougars (7-6) - 60.2

62. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-5) - 61.2

63. BYU Cougars (8-5) - 62.5

64. Texas A&M Aggies (5-7) - 62.9

65. Auburn Tigers (5-7) - 65.1

66. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-7) - 66.2

67. UAB Blazers (7-6) - 67.8

68. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-6) - 69.4

69. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 69.7

70. Ohio Bobcats (10-4) - 70.0

71. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 70.7

72. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-7) - 71.6

73. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-4) - 73.2

74. Liberty Flames (8-5) - 74.1

75. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) - 74.7

76. Toledo Rockets (9-5) - 75.1

77. North Texas Mean Green (7-7) - 75.9

78. Miami Hurricanes (5-7) - 78.5

79. San Jose State Spartans (7-5) - 79.0

80. Arizona Wildcats (5-7) - 80.1

81. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 80.7

82. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-7) - 84.7

83. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) - 84.8

84. Georgia Southern Eagles (6-7) - 85.7

85. San Diego State Aztecs (7-6) - 86.8

86. Wyoming Cowboys (7-6) - 87.0

87. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 87.2

88. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 88.8

89. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-7) - 89.2

90. Georgia State Panthers (4-8) - 89.5

91. California Golden Bears (4-8) - 89.6

92. Eastern Michigan Eagles (9-4) - 91.2

93. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 94.0

94. Buffalo Bulls (7-6) - 94.3

95. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 94.4

96. Connecticut Huskies (6-7) - 94.9

97. Virginia Cavaliers (3-7) - 97.4

98. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 98.6

99. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9) - 99.6

100. Miami University RedHawks (6-7) - 100.4

(tie) Old Dominion Monarchs (3-9) - 100.4

102. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 100.9

(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-8) - 100.9

104. Boston College Eagles (3-9) - 103.8

105. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 104.5

106. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 106.8

107. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 107.0

108. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 107.1

109. Rice Owls (5-8) - 108.0

110. Utah State Aggies (6-7) - 108.6

111. Ball State Cardinals (5-7) - 108.8

112. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6) - 112.1

113. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 112.9

114. Temple Owls (3-9) - 114.0

115. Western Michigan Broncos (5-7) - 114.9

116. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-9) - 115.1

117. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-8) - 116.7

118. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 118.0

119. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9) - 118.7

120. South Florida Bulls (1-11) - 120.3

121. Bowling Green Falcons (6-7) - 121.3

122. FIU Golden Panthers (4-8) - 121.7

123. Hawaii Warriors (3-10) - 123.3

124. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.0

125. Charlotte 49ers (3-9) - 125.8

126. Northwestern Wildcats (1-11) - 125.9

127. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-10) - 126.1

128. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 128.0

(tie) New Mexico Lobos (2-10) - 128.0

130. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 129.4

131. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.1 

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

2021 College Football Final Rankings

It's not surprising that Georgia ranks number one in our final rankings. How did the rest of the rankings shake out though? Here's the result of our final analysis for the 2021 season:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (14-1) - 1.0

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-2) - 2.0

3. Cincinnati Bearcats (13-1) - 3.0

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 4.5

5. Michigan Wolverines (12-2) - 4.6

6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-2) - 6.8

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-2) - 7.7

8. Michigan State Spartans (11-2) - 7.9

9. Baylor Bears (12-2) - 9.3

10. Utah Utes (10-4) - 9.9

11. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 11.9

12. Pittsburgh Panthers (11-3) - 12.4

13. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 13.7

14. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-4) - 14.8

15. Wisconsin Badgers (9-4) - 16.3

16. Ole Miss Rebels (10-3) - 17.3

17. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 17.6

18. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-6) - 20.1

19. Kansas State Wildcats (8-5) - 20.3

20. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-3) - 21.0

21. San Diego State Aztecs (12-2) - 21.6

22. Boise State Broncos (7-5) - 21.7

23. Kentucky Wildcats (10-3) - 23.7

24. BYU Cougars (10-3) - 23.8

25. Air Force Falcons (10-3) - 24.1

26. Purdue Boilermakers (9-4) - 25.2

27. Houston Cougars (12-2) - 25.5

28. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (13-1) - 26.8

29. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - 29.8

30. Iowa State Cyclones (7-6) - 30.1

31. Oregon Ducks (10-4) - 32.9

32. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-4) - 33.6

33. Utah State Aggies (11-3) - 34.4

34. UTSA Roadrunners (12-2) - 34.7

35. Tennessee Volunteers (7-6) - 35.4

36. Auburn Tigers (6-7) - 35.6

37. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-5) - 36.9

38. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-3) - 37.0

39. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-4) - 37.7

40. UCLA Bruins (8-4) - 39.1

41. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) - 40.9

42. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-6) - 42.1

43. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-5) - 42.7

44. Army Black Knights (9-4) - 43.0

45. SMU Mustangs (8-4) - 43.8

46. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-5) - 44.8

47. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11-2) - 46.5

48. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 48.3

49. LSU Tigers (6-7) - 49.4

50. UAB Blazers (9-4) - 50.3

51. UCF Knights (9-4) - 50.8

52. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 51.7

53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-6) - 52.0

54. Oregon State Beavers (7-6) - 54.0

55. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-9) - 54.8

56. Liberty Flames (8-5) - 56.1

57. Washington State Cougars (7-6) - 57.5

58. Florida Gators (6-7) - 58.2

59. Louisville Cardinals (6-7) - 60.1

(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (7-6) - 60.1

61. Western Michigan Broncos (8-5) - 60.4

62. Central Michigan Chippewas (9-4) - 61.5

63. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-6) - 63.9

64. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-7) - 64.1

65. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 64.8

66. Georgia State Panthers (8-5) - 65.1

67. Maryland Terrapins (7-6) - 65.8

68. Missouri Tigers (6-7) - 66.0

69. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-7) - 68.6

70. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-7) - 70.2

71. Toledo Rockets (7-6) - 71.2

72. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 73.2

73. TCU Horned Frogs (5-7) - 73.3

74. Virginia Cavaliers (6-6) - 73.4

75. Miami University RedHawks (7-6) - 75.7

76. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 76.4

77. Memphis Tigers (6-6) - 77.9

78. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-7) - 78.4

79. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 79.8

80. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-5) - 79.9

81. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 82.1

82. Wyoming Cowboys (7-6) - 83.1

83. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-6) - 84.0

84. USC Trojans (4-8) - 84.9

85. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-6) - 86.9

86. Ball State Cardinals (6-7) - 87.1

87. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-8) - 87.4

88. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-6) - 87.7

89. Florida State Seminoles (5-7) - 89.1

90. North Texas Mean Green (6-7) - 89.2

91. UTEP Miners (7-6) - 89.6

92. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 90.3

93. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-9) - 90.6

94. Old Dominion Monarchs (6-7) - 92.5

95. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 94.3

96. South Alabama Jaguars (5-7) - 95.7

97. Washington Huskies (4-8) - 97.2

98. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 98.8

99. Tulane Green Wave (2-10) - 99.5

100. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 100.3

101. Troy Trojans (5-7) - 100.7

102. Rice Owls (4-8) - 102.1

103. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) - 102.4

104. Kent State Golden Flashes (7-7) - 103.2

105. Indiana Hoosiers (2-10) - 104.2

106. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 107.1

107. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 107.4

108. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 108.3

109. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 108.4

110. Northwestern Wildcats (3-9) - 108.6

111. Buffalo Bulls (4-8) - 109.3

112. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 111.1

113. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 113.5

114. South Florida Bulls (2-10) - 113.9

115. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 115.1

116. Georgia Southern Eagles (3-9) - 115.2

117. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-9) - 115.6

118. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 118.1

119. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 119.5

120. Temple Owls (3-9) - 120.0

121. Ohio Bobcats (3-9) - 120.3

122. Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-10) - 121.1

123. Arizona Wildcats (1-11) - 123.0

124. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 124.0

125. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 124.9

126. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.8

127. FIU Golden Panthers (1-11) - 127.7

128. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 128.5

129. Connecticut Huskies (1-11) - 129.6

130. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.9

Saturday, December 11, 2021

2021 College Football Rankings - Week 15

Well, week 15 had one game, as usual - the traditional Army-Navy game. Navy came in ranked behind Army, but beat them 17-13. Upsets like this usually have the most impact on the rankings if a single game is going to impact the rankings. A lot of teams moved by a spot or two. And, of course, Army and Navy moved. Here are the final rankings after the regular season (heading into the bowls):

1. Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0) - 1.4

2. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) - 1.6

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) - 3.0

4. Michigan Wolverines (12-1) - 4.0

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - 5.1

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - 6.0

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) - 8.1

(tie) Utah Utes (10-3) - 8.1

9. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) - 8.9

10. Pittsburgh Panthers (11-2) - 10.1

11. Baylor Bears (11-2) - 12.5

12. Clemson Tigers (9-3) - 12.7

13. Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) - 13.7

14. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 16.3

(tie) Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 16.3

16. Wisconsin Badgers (8-4) - 17.0

17. BYU Cougars (10-2) - 17.4

18. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4) - 17.9

19. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 20.5

20. Boise State Broncos (7-5) - 22.1

21. Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) - 23.2

22. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-3) - 23.4

23. Air Force Falcons (9-3) - 23.7

24. Purdue Boilermakers (8-4) - 23.9

25. Oregon Ducks (10-3) - 25.0

26. San Diego State Aztecs (11-2) - 26.3

27. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) - 27.9

28. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - 28.2

29. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3) - 29.0

30. UTSA Roadrunners (12-1) - 30.0

31. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (12-1) - 32.5

32. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) - 32.6

33. Auburn Tigers (6-6) - 33.2

34. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) - 33.6

35. Houston Cougars (11-2) - 34.1

36. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 34.6

37. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) - 35.7

38. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) - 35.8

39. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) - 36.5

40. UCLA Bruins (8-4) - 38.7

41. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4) - 40.1

42. LSU Tigers (6-6) - 41.5

43. Utah State Aggies (10-3) - 42.2

44. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 44.3

45. SMU Mustangs (8-4) - 45.8

46. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 46.0

47. Army Black Knights (8-4) - 46.7

48. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2) - 46.9

(tie) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) - 46.9

50. Oregon State Beavers (7-5) - 48.4

51. Florida Gators (6-6) - 51.4

52. Washington State Cougars (7-5) - 52.2

53. UAB Blazers (8-4) - 54.2

54. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 54.4

55. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-9) - 55.8

56. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 55.9

57. UCF Knights (8-4) - 56.7

58. Louisville Cardinals (6-6) - 58.8

59. Liberty Flames (7-5) - 59.1

60. Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4) - 59.3

61. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-5) - 60.3

62. Missouri Tigers (6-6) - 62.7

63. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 63.7

64. ECU Pirates (7-5) - 64.0

65. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6) - 64.5

66. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) - 64.6

67. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 67.5

68. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) - 68.6

69. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-7) - 69.4

70. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 69.5

71. Virginia Cavaliers (6-6) - 71.0

72. Georgia State Panthers (7-5) - 71.7

73. Boston College Eagles (6-6) - 73.6

74. Maryland Terrapins (6-6) - 74.8

75. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 76.5

76. TCU Horned Frogs (5-7) - 77.1

77. Memphis Tigers (6-6) - 77.8

78. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4) - 78.5

79. Miami University RedHawks (6-6) - 79.1

80. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 80.7

81. Navy Midshipmen (4-8) - 81.2

82. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.7

83. Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) - 82.8

84. USC Trojans (4-8) - 83.7

85. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-7) - 85.5

86. Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) - 86.5

87. North Texas Mean Green (6-6) - 86.9

88. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) - 88.1

89. Florida State Seminoles (5-7) - 88.2

90. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-9) - 90.0

91. Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6) - 90.1

92. UTEP Miners (7-5) - 90.3

93. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 91.2

94. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-6) - 93.2

95. Stanford Cardinal (3-9) - 94.1

96. Washington Huskies (4-8) - 96.3

97. South Alabama Jaguars (5-7) - 96.6

98. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7) - 99.6

99. Tulane Green Wave (2-10) - 99.9

100. Kent State Golden Flashes (7-6) - 100.4

101. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 100.6

102. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) - 100.7

103. Troy Trojans (5-7) - 102.4

104. Rice Owls (4-8) - 103.3

105. Indiana Hoosiers (2-10) - 105.4

106. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 106.4

107. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 107.8

108. Northwestern Wildcats (3-9) - 107.9

109. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9) - 108.1

110. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 108.9

111. Buffalo Bulls (4-8) - 109.0

112. Bowling Green Falcons (4-8) - 110.9

113. Charlotte 49ers (5-7) - 113.2

114. South Florida Bulls (2-10) - 114.0

115. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 114.4

116. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-9) - 115.6

117. Georgia Southern Eagles (3-9) - 115.8

118. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 118.3

119. Temple Owls (3-9) - 119.9

120. Ohio Bobcats (3-9) - 120.1

121. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 120.2

122. Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-10) - 121.2

123. Arizona Wildcats (1-11) - 122.5

124. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 124.2

125. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 124.9

126. Akron Zips (2-10) - 125.8

127. FIU Golden Panthers (1-11) - 127.7

128. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 128.4

129. Connecticut Huskies (1-11) - 129.6

130. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 130.9

Monday, December 6, 2021

Updated Program Rankings - Through 2020

We took a few years off. But we're caught up now. Better late than never. Here are the program rankings for all 130 Division 1-A schools as they sat entering the 2021 season. We'll put out new program rankings including 2021 after the bowl games have been played. Remember that these program rankings are based on the historical level of success for each of the programs counting only the years that the program competed at the highest division of college football. Data included goes back 109 years. More recent years are weighted heavier than years further in the past. Younger programs that have quick success might climb a bit too quickly under this system. On the other hand, a bad year hurts younger programs more than programs with an extensive history of success.

Notes: Ohio State has had the #1 program in the rankings since 2006 and 2020's program rating is actually the highest rating Ohio State has ever had. Prior to 2006 it was Michigan, who was #1 from 2002-2006 and briefly in 1999. For 2000 and 2001, the top ranked program was Nebraska. Nebraska is now #17. Michigan is #9. Notre Dame (now #4) held the top spot in 1993 and from 1995-1998. Alabama (#2 since 2011) was #1 from 1979-1986, then again in 1989, 1992, and 1994.

The top five programs are the same as they were before 2020, although from 2018-2019 there was a bit of shuffling, as USC was at #4 and Notre Dame was at #5 at the end of 2018. #6 Georgia is up one spot from #7 at the end of 2019 and #7 Florida is up four spots from a previous #11.

Here are the program rankings as they stood heading into the 2021 season:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes - 0.882980484

2. Alabama Crimson Tide - 0.881005463

3. Oklahoma Sooners - 0.855655343

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 0.821338769

5. USC Trojans - 0.815049045

6. Georgia Bulldogs - 0.812767457

7. Florida Gators - 0.796874656

8. Texas Longhorns - 0.784290292

9. Michigan Wolverines - 0.783578472

10. LSU Tigers - 0.783357535

11. Penn State Nittany Lions - 0.777131244

12. Florida State Seminoles - 0.765862152

13. Auburn Tigers - 0.761586252

14. Boise State Broncos - 0.750972983

15. Clemson Tigers - 0.750758753

16. Miami Hurricanes - 0.736616435

17. Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.729023845

18. Tennessee Volunteers - 0.722544579

19. Texas A&M Aggies - 0.715639614

20. Oregon Ducks - 0.67850575

21. Washington Huskies - 0.675564819

22. Wisconsin Badgers - 0.670839623

23. Michigan State Spartans - 0.669024761

24. Virginia Tech Hokies - 0.651352462

25. UCLA Bruins - 0.647902028

26. Arizona State Sun Devils - 0.645381616

27. West Virginia Mountaineers - 0.642926185

28. Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.638599783

29. Stanford Cardinal - 0.63783588

30. Arkansas Razorbacks - 0.636116465

31. BYU Cougars - 0.6222132

32. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 0.621044637

33. Appalachian State Mountaineers - 0.617609989

34. Utah Utes - 0.613757765

35. Ole Miss Rebels - 0.603433816

36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 0.598459333

37. Pittsburgh Panthers - 0.597444232

38. North Carolina Tar Heels - 0.586704672

39. Missouri Tigers - 0.581696934

40. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 0.578512727

41. TCU Horned Frogs - 0.576843377

42. South Carolina Gamecocks - 0.573737243

43. Boston College Eagles - 0.5697528

44. Texas Tech Red Raiders - 0.568896383

45. UCF Knights - 0.545891834

46. NC State Wolfpack - 0.544929107

47. California Golden Bears - 0.543298777

48. Colorado Buffaloes - 0.542542037

49. Houston Cougars - 0.535552175

50. Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.531450303

51. Louisville Cardinals - 0.531387453

52. Air Force Falcons - 0.525754759

53. Arizona Wildcats - 0.525222909

54. Georgia Southern Eagles - 0.524519541

55. Kansas State Wildcats - 0.521437125

56. Baylor Bears - 0.520698596

57. Syracuse Orange - 0.5203826

58. San Diego State Aztecs - 0.516230406

59. Purdue Boilermakers - 0.512255162

60. Kentucky Wildcats - 0.508086169

61. Cincinnati Bearcats - 0.502176142

62. Maryland Terrapins - 0.499227005

63. Virginia Cavaliers - 0.489952237

64. Southern Miss Golden Eagles - 0.488776679

65. Fresno State Bulldogs - 0.488492178

66. Toledo Rockets - 0.486943495

67. Washington State Cougars - 0.485798662

68. Navy Midshipmen - 0.478625937

69. South Florida Bulls - 0.471222377

70. Memphis Tigers - 0.468078947

71. Liberty Flames - 0.456155888

72. Northwestern Wildcats - 0.451066051

73. Tulsa Golden Hurricane - 0.450480121

74. Iowa State Cyclones - 0.439418796

75. Miami University RedHawks - 0.435976327

76. Oregon State Beavers - 0.432386134

77. Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.430588003

78. Marshall Thundering Herd - 0.427949421

79. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - 0.426607835

80. Troy Trojans - 0.421768778

81. Indiana Hoosiers - 0.412509835

82. ECU Pirates - 0.411908171

83. Wyoming Cowboys - 0.411655606

84. Duke Blue Devils - 0.410448837

85. SMU Mustangs - 0.410013134

86. Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 0.408037669

87. Western Michigan Broncos - 0.401653321

88. Hawaii Warriors - 0.3997051

89. Bowling Green Falcons - 0.397007825

90. Nevada Wolf Pack - 0.393741664

91. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - 0.388223986

92. Central Michigan Chippewas - 0.381075695

93. Army Black Knights - 0.374030257

94. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 0.373489631

95. Colorado State Rams - 0.372162498

96. Vanderbilt Commodores - 0.371084498

97. Utah State Aggies - 0.361360109

98. Kansas Jayhawks - 0.360715774

99. Temple Owls - 0.356959029

100. Ohio Bobcats - 0.355738903

101. Northern Illinois Huskies - 0.352891458

102. Tulane Green Wave - 0.346879456

103. Ball State Cardinals - 0.344317643

104. San Jose State Spartans - 0.32413887

105. Florida Atlantic Owls - 0.324078771

106. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 0.321281495

107. UAB Blazers - 0.318903105

108. Rice Owls - 0.315498374

109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - 0.315228247

110. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders - 0.304942239

111. Connecticut Huskies - 0.302392935

112. Arkansas State Red Wolves - 0.300925826

113. New Mexico Lobos - 0.294412139

114. Buffalo Bulls - 0.29007608

115. North Texas Mean Green - 0.27395592

116. UTSA Roadrunners - 0.269875219

117. Georgia State Panthers - 0.240044429

118. South Alabama Jaguars - 0.224414777

119. Kent State Golden Flashes - 0.220290729

120. Old Dominion Monarchs - 0.214061352

121. UTEP Miners - 0.207166838

122. UNLV Rebels - 0.20709044

123. Akron Zips - 0.188273763

124. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - 0.185659086

125. Eastern Michigan Eagles - 0.185003223

126. FIU Golden Panthers - 0.16991895

127. Charlotte 49ers - 0.153211181

128. New Mexico State Aggies - 0.142046612

129. Texas State Bobcats - 0.138847168

130. Massachusetts Minutemen - 0.087450683


Sunday, December 5, 2021

Bowl Matchups

Bowl matchups are out. Certainly, the CFP games top the list, but there are some interesting other bowls games lined up for this holiday season. Here are this year's bowl rankings from the most intriguing matchups to the least intriguing ones:

(Remember: We define "intriguing" as the likelihood that the game will be a close game between two good teams.)

12/31/2021 CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic #1 Cincinnati vs. #3 Alabama

12/31/2021 CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl #2 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan

1/1/2022 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl #7 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Notre Dame

1/1/2022 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Capital One Venture X #7 Utah vs. #5 Ohio State

12/30/2021 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl #10 Pittsburgh vs. #9 Michigan State

1/1/2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl #11 Baylor vs. #13 Ole Miss

1/1/2022 Outback Bowl #14 Penn State vs. #18 Arkansas

12/31/2021 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl #22 Wake Forest vs. #14 Texas A&M

12/29/2021 Valero Alamo Bowl #25 Oregon vs. #19 Oklahoma

12/21/2021 Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl #30 UTSA vs. #26 San Diego State

12/28/2021 TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl #35 Houston vs. #33 Auburn

1/1/2022 Vrbo Citrus Bowl #34 Iowa vs. #21 Kentucky

12/30/2021 TransPerfect Music City Bowl #37 Tennessee vs. #24 Purdue

1/4/2022 TaxAct Texas Bowl #42 LSU vs. #36 Kansas State

12/28/2021 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl #40 UCLA vs. #28 NC State

12/29/2021 Cheez-It Bowl #12 Clemson vs. #39 Iowa State

12/18/2021 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel #43 Utah State vs. #50 Oregon State

12/30/2021 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl #16 Wisconsin vs. #41 Arizona State

12/31/2021 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl #52 Washington State vs. #46 Miami

12/18/2021 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl #48 Western Kentucky vs. #29 Appalachian State

12/23/2021 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl #57 UCF vs. #51 Florida

12/30/2021 Duke's Mayo Bowl #56 North Carolina vs. #65 South Carolina

12/22/2021 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl #62 Missouri vs. #47 Army

12/18/2021 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl #53 UAB vs. #17 BYU

12/28/2021 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl #23 Air Force vs. #58 Louisville

12/29/2021 New Era Pinstripe Bowl #74 Maryland vs. #70 Virginia Tech

12/18/2021 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl #31 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #61 Marshall

12/27/2021 Military Bowl Presented by Peraton #73 Boston College vs. #64 ECU

12/28/2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl #68 West Virginia vs. #44 Minnesota

12/31/2021 Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl #60 Central Michigan vs. #20 Boise State

12/29/2021 Wasabi Fenway Bowl #45 SMU vs. #71 Virginia

12/27/2021 Quick Lane Bowl #67 Western Michigan vs. #32 Nevada

12/28/2021 AutoZone Liberty Bowl #27 Mississippi State vs. #66 Texas Tech

12/25/2021 TaxAct Camellia Bowl #72 Georgia State vs. #82 Ball State

12/23/2021 Frisco Football Classic #87 North Texas vs. #79 Miami University

12/17/2021 Tailgreeter Cure Bowl #78 Northern Illinois vs. #48 Coastal Carolina

12/18/2021 LendingTree Bowl #83 Eastern Michigan vs. #59 Liberty

12/20/2021 Myrtle Beach Bowl Pres. By TaxAct #91 Old Dominion vs. #94 Tulsa

12/17/2021 Bahamas Bowl #88 Middle Tennessee vs. #63 Toledo

12/24/2021 EasyPost Hawaii Bowl #77 Memphis vs. #93 Hawaii

12/21/2021 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl #100 Kent State vs. #86 Wyoming

12/18/2021 PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl #92 UTEP vs. #38 Fresno State