Week 15 - 2012 College Football Rankings

Only one game was played last weekend, so this week's rankings will be a lot like last week's rankings. Our analysis says that the national championship game ought to be between Oregon and Alabama. Sorry, Notre Dame. Too many close games against inferior competition.

We took our rankings and substituted them for the BCS rankings. Then, we went ahead and assigned each of the BCS bowls as they would have happened under the assumption that the selection rules would have been followed and each bowl, when it chose, would prefer the highest ranked team that it could choose. It changes things a bit (the biggest change is that our analysis gives Utah State an automatic bid instead of Northern Illinois). Here are the BCS bowls as they came out for us:

National Championship Game	#1 Oregon	#2 Alabama
Orange Bowl	#14 Florida State	#49 Louisville
Rose Bowl	#20 Wisconsin	#10 Stanford
Fiesta Bowl	#8 Kansas State	#5 Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl	#3 Florida	#15 Utah State

And here are our final regular season rankings:

1. Oregon Ducks (11-1) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) - 2.2
3. Florida Gators (11-1) - 3.2
4. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) - 4.3
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) - 4.6
6. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 6.2
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 7.3
8. Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) - 8.5
9. LSU Tigers (10-2) - 9.1
10. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) - 11.4
11. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) - 11.7
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 11.7
13. Clemson Tigers (10-2) - 13.2
14. Florida State Seminoles (11-2) - 14.3
15. Utah State Aggies (10-2) - 14.4
16. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) - 16.1
17. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) - 18.6
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) - 19.1
19. San Jose State Spartans (10-2) - 19.5
20. Wisconsin Badgers (8-5) - 19.7
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) - 20.7
22. USC Trojans (7-5) - 23.5
23. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 24.4
24. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) - 24.9
25. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 25.2
26. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 27.3
27. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 27.6
28. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) - 28.4
29. BYU Cougars (7-5) - 28.5
30. UCLA Bruins (9-4) - 30.0
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 30.5
32. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4) - 32.3
33. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) - 32.4
34. Baylor Bears (7-5) - 34.9
(tie) Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) - 34.9
36. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) - 35.1
37. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) - 37.7
38. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) - 38.5
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) - 40.6
40. Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) - 40.8
41. Michigan State Spartans (6-6) - 41.5
42. UCF Knights (9-4) - 42.1
43. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) - 44.4
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 44.8
45. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) - 45.1
46. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 45.2
47. TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) - 46.3
(tie) Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 46.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (10-2) - 47.3
50. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 48.4
51. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 49.8
52. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 50.4
53. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 52.0
54. Missouri Tigers (5-7) - 53.6
55. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 54.2
56. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 57.2
(tie) North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 57.2
58. Ball State Cardinals (9-3) - 57.7
59. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 58.4
60. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) - 58.9
61. Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) - 61.9
62. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 62.2
63. Utah Utes (5-7) - 62.8
64. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-8) - 65.1
65. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 65.5
66. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (8-4) - 65.6
67. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 65.7
68. Navy Midshipmen (8-4) - 67.7
69. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 68.7
70. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 69.2
71. Duke Blue Devils (6-6) - 70.7
72. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-8) - 71.4
73. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 74.9
74. SMU Mustangs (6-6) - 75.6
75. California Golden Bears (3-9) - 75.8
(tie) Rice Owls (6-6) - 75.8
77. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 76.1
78. Troy Trojans (5-7) - 76.3
79. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) - 78.0
80. ECU Pirates (8-4) - 81.4
81. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 81.5
82. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 82.2
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 82.2
84. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-7) - 83.6
85. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 85.5
86. South Florida Bulls (3-9) - 85.6
87. Auburn Tigers (3-9) - 88.5
88. Kentucky Wildcats (2-10) - 88.8
89. Air Force Falcons (6-6) - 89.8
90. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 90.1
91. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 91.3
92. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 91.6
93. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 92.4
94. UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) - 92.8
95. North Texas Mean Green (4-8) - 93.3
96. Temple Owls (4-7) - 95.7
97. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 96.3
98. Buffalo Bulls (4-8) - 96.9
99. FIU Golden Panthers (3-9) - 99.8
100. Western Michigan Broncos (4-8) - 100.0
101. Memphis Tigers (4-8) - 100.6
102. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 102.0
103. Kansas Jayhawks (1-11) - 102.5
104. Washington State Cougars (3-9) - 104.8
105. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 105.8
106. Boston College Eagles (2-10) - 106.3
107. New Mexico Lobos (4-9) - 107.2
108. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-10) - 107.3
109. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 107.6
110. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 108.9
111. Tulane Green Wave (2-10) - 111.0
112. Wyoming Cowboys (4-8) - 113.1
113. Hawaii Warriors (3-9) - 113.7
114. Army Black Knights (2-10) - 114.7
115. South Alabama Jaguars (2-11) - 115.6
116. Colorado State Rams (4-8) - 116.4
(tie) UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 116.4
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.9
119. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 118.0
120. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (0-12) - 120.7
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 120.9
122. New Mexico State Aggies (1-11) - 121.2
123. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 121.6
124. Idaho Vandals (1-11) - 123.9

Week 14 - 2012 College Football Rankings

It's all about timing, and about scheduling. Imagine if Oregon's loss to Stanford had come in the first game of the season. Imagine if Alabama's loss to Texas A&M had come in the last game of the season. Imagine if Oregon would have played Stanford at home instead of on the road (which is what Notre Dame did this year). Imagine if Texas A&M had beaten either Florida or LSU (games Alabama had no control over), and therefore had ended up in the SEC Championship game instead of Alabama. The timing of Alabama, Kansas State and Oregon's losses had as much to do with who is playing in the National Championship game as who they lost to, where they lost and how they lost - in fact, even more so. If you stop to think about it, Oregon's loss should probably have been the least damaging, given that it was on the road, in overtime to a Top Ten quality team (and the only team that of the teams lost to that was a contender in their league for a conference championship). Yet, of these three one-loss teams, Oregon's loss ends up being the most devastating, costing the Ducks both a shot at the national championship and a shot at the PAC-12 championship.

Our analysis removes the issue of timing. All games are equal, regardless of when they are played. It also removes the issue of conference championships. It is hard to put Oregon in the National Championship game when they didn't even play in their Conference Championship game, but when it comes to analyzing the seasons, the fact that Oregon lost to the wrong team (the one that had a good enough record in-conference to tie them for the division title) and as a result, lost the PAC-12 championship essentially on a tie-breaker rule, is just one game against a really good team. If you think about it, though, Oregon's loss of the division and therefore conference championship on a tie breaker seems somehow fitting, or at least ironically consistent, since even the game itself was a tie at the end of regulation. But in any case, when you remove the peripheral stuff and compare games to games, our analysis shows Oregon has the "best" loss of any of these teams, and in fact, their wins are still enough to put them in the #1 spot, even over undefeated teams like Notre Dame and Ohio State. We're eager to find out if that will continue to be the case after the bowl games, even though Oregon won't be competing in the official national championship.

While we're at it, we're also wondering how Northern Illinois ended up being able to jump six spots in the final BCS poll and become the first non-AQ team selected for a BCS bowl without going undefeated. Is this East Coast bias at work again? True, the MAC is better than it has been most years, but our analysis shows that it still just isn't that good, still coming in behind such powerhouse conferences as the WAC, Sun Belt and the MWC in terms of top-to-bottom league performance. In fact, if there is a league that should have been getting more attention, it is the WAC.

The results of our analysis show that this year, the top third of the WAC was fourth strongest when compared to the best teams in the other conferences - meaning the best teams in the WAC were better than the best teams in any other conference except the SEC, PAC 12 and Big 12. While the MAC was getting lots of attention for beating some bottom to middle-of-the-road AQ conference teams in individual games, teams like Utah State and San Jose State were actually outperforming any of the MAC teams, but nobody noticed, mostly because it was somehow assumed those teams would lose to Louisiana Tech when the finally played - the only team from the WAC anyone bothered to rank for most of the season. Then, when both of those teams beat Louisiana Tech in impressive fashion, it was too late for either team to make up the kind of ground they needed to be considered for a BCS game both teams probably deserved more than Northern Illinois.

How can we make such a statement? Our analysis proves it. In fact, our analysis shows that no less than five non-AQ teams had better seasons this year than Northern Illinois, including three teams from the WAC: Utah State, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. That none of these teams had the almost blemish-free record that Northern Illinois did is just a testament to the level of competition they were willing to face and compete favorably with. Utah State lost its two games by a total of five points on the road to Wisconsin, who will be playing in the Rose Bowl this year, and in-state rival BYU, a team who very nearly beat potential national champion Notre Dame on the road and our analysis puts at #29, right behind Northern Illinois.

We'll be writing more about this and will be posting our BCS bowl matchups - how the bowls would have turned out if our rankings were used to make the bowl matchup decisions. We'll also be releasing the results of our analysis of 100 years of football history program rankings in the next couple of weeks. Watch for it. 1912 was the first year in which a touchdown was worth six points and a field goal was worth three. With the finish of the 2011 season, one hundred years of football had been played under this scoring system. Which programs have had the most success during that hundred years? You probably won't be surprised at which programs are found near the top, but you'll want to see exactly where your favorite program falls and how it compares to other programs in its class.

In the meantime, here is the complete list of rankings after 14 weeks. There is only one regular season game to go - the annual Army-Navy game next week. Then, it's bowl time. We'll be participating with our rankings in some of the online prediction games, as we have in previous years, and as usual, expect to perform very well (although our rankings were never intended to be good predictors of future games). Stay tuned and we'll keep you posted on how we do.

1. Oregon Ducks (11-1) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) - 2.2
3. Florida Gators (11-1) - 3.2
4. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) - 4.3
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) - 4.6
6. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 6.2
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) - 7.3
8. Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) - 8.5
9. LSU Tigers (10-2) - 9.1
10. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) - 11.4
11. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) - 11.7
(tie) Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 11.7
13. Clemson Tigers (10-2) - 13.2
14. Florida State Seminoles (11-2) - 14.3
15. Utah State Aggies (10-2) - 14.4
16. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) - 16.1
17. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) - 18.6
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) - 19.1
19. San Jose State Spartans (10-2) - 19.4
20. Wisconsin Badgers (8-5) - 19.7
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) - 20.7
22. USC Trojans (7-5) - 23.5
23. Boise State Broncos (10-2) - 24.4
24. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) - 24.9
25. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 25.2
26. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 27.4
27. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 27.6
28. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) - 28.4
29. BYU Cougars (7-5) - 28.5
30. UCLA Bruins (9-4) - 30.0
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 30.6
32. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4) - 32.2
33. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) - 32.4
34. Baylor Bears (7-5) - 34.9
(tie) Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) - 34.9
36. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) - 35.1
37. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) - 37.7
38. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) - 38.5
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) - 40.6
40. Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) - 40.7
41. Michigan State Spartans (6-6) - 41.5
42. UCF Knights (9-4) - 42.2
43. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) - 44.4
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 44.8
45. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) - 45.2
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 45.2
47. TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) - 46.3
(tie) Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 46.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (10-2) - 47.3
50. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 48.4
51. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 49.8
52. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 50.4
53. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 52.0
54. Missouri Tigers (5-7) - 53.6
55. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 54.0
56. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 57.1
57. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) - 57.2
58. Ball State Cardinals (9-3) - 57.6
59. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 58.3
60. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) - 58.9
61. Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) - 61.9
62. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 62.2
63. Utah Utes (5-7) - 62.8
64. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-8) - 65.2
65. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 65.5
66. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (8-4) - 65.7
67. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) - 66.0
68. Navy Midshipmen (7-4) - 66.7
69. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 69.3
(tie) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 69.3
71. Duke Blue Devils (6-6) - 70.7
72. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-8) - 71.4
73. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 74.9
74. SMU Mustangs (6-6) - 75.6
75. California Golden Bears (3-9) - 75.8
(tie) Rice Owls (6-6) - 75.8
77. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 76.1
78. Troy Trojans (5-7) - 76.3
79. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) - 78.0
80. ECU Pirates (8-4) - 81.5
(tie) Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 81.5
82. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 82.2
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 82.2
84. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-7) - 83.7
85. Indiana Hoosiers (4-8) - 85.6
(tie) South Florida Bulls (3-9) - 85.6
87. Auburn Tigers (3-9) - 88.4
88. Kentucky Wildcats (2-10) - 88.9
89. Air Force Falcons (6-6) - 89.8
90. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 90.0
91. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 91.2
92. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 91.6
93. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 92.5
94. UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) - 92.9
95. North Texas Mean Green (4-8) - 93.3
96. Temple Owls (4-7) - 95.6
97. Texas State Bobcats (4-8) - 96.2
98. Buffalo Bulls (4-8) - 97.0
99. FIU Golden Panthers (3-9) - 99.8
100. Western Michigan Broncos (4-8) - 100.0
101. Memphis Tigers (4-8) - 100.6
102. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 102.0
103. Kansas Jayhawks (1-11) - 102.5
104. Washington State Cougars (3-9) - 104.8
105. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-9) - 105.8
106. Boston College Eagles (2-10) - 106.4
107. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-10) - 107.2
(tie) New Mexico Lobos (4-9) - 107.2
109. UTEP Miners (3-9) - 107.6
110. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 108.9
111. Tulane Green Wave (2-10) - 111.0
112. Wyoming Cowboys (4-8) - 113.1
113. Hawaii Warriors (3-9) - 113.3
114. South Alabama Jaguars (2-11) - 115.6
115. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 115.8
116. Colorado State Rams (4-8) - 115.9
117. Army Black Knights (2-9) - 116.3
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.8
119. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 117.9
120. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (0-12) - 120.8
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 120.9
122. New Mexico State Aggies (1-11) - 121.2
123. Colorado Buffaloes (1-11) - 121.6
124. Idaho Vandals (1-11) - 123.8