2011 College Football Bowl Season - Intriguing Games Rankings

An intriguing game is one that is likely to be a close game between two good teams based on the past season success of both teams involved in that game. Given that definition, we have ranked each of the 35 bowl games this year in terms of its level of "intrigue" and present that list to you, beginning with the least intriguing bowl game of the holiday season and ending with the BCS Championship game, which - once again - is the most intriguing match of the holidays:

35. Military Bowl - #27 Toledo vs. #71 Air Force (12/28/2011)
34. Alamo Bowl - #67 Washington vs. #17 Baylor (12/29/2011)
33. Fight Hunger Bowl - #61 Illinois vs. #77 UCLA (12/31/2011)
32. Meineke Car Care Bowl - #20 Texas A&M vs. #63 Northwestern (12/31/2011)
31. Little Caesars Bowl - #59 Western Michigan vs. #76 Purdue (12/27/2011)
30. New Orleans Bowl - #54 San Diego State vs. #74 Louisiana-Lafayette (12/17/2011)
29. Hawaii Bowl - #60 Nevada vs. #18 Southern Miss (12/24/2011)
28. New Mexico Bowl - #45 Temple vs. #69 Wyoming (12/17/2011)
27. Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - #75 FIU vs. #79 Marshall (12/20/2011)
26. Music City Bowl - #44 Mississippi State vs. #68 Wake Forest (12/30/2011)
25. Idaho Potato Bowl - #56 Ohio vs. #72 Utah State (12/17/2011)
24. MAACO Bowl - #53 Arizona State vs. #5 Boise State (12/22/2011)
23. Sun Bowl - #36 Georgia Tech vs. #62 Utah (12/31/2011)
22. BBVA Compass Bowl - #64 SMU vs. #51 Pittsburgh (1/7/2012)
21. Poinsettia Bowl - #13 TCU vs. #50 Louisiana Tech (12/21/2011)
20. Chick-fil-A Bowl - #58 Virginia vs. #39 Auburn (12/31/2011)
19. Pinstripe Bowl - #57 Iowa State vs. #42 Rutgers (12/30/2011)
18. Insight Bowl - #41 Iowa vs. #10 Oklahoma (12/30/2011)
17. GoDaddy.Com Bowl - #35 Arkansas State vs. #47 Northern Illinois (1/8/2012)
16. Holiday Bowl - #43 California vs. #26 Texas (12/28/2011)
15. Belk Bowl - #49 Louisville vs. #46 NC State (12/27/2011)
14. Independence Bowl - #40 North Carolina vs. #29 Missouri (12/26/2011)
13. Gator Bowl - #32 Ohio State vs. #38 Florida (1/2/2012)
12. Armed Forces Bowl - #37 BYU vs. #30 Tulsa (12/30/2011)
11. Orange Bowl - #33 West Virginia vs. #25 Clemson (1/4/2012)
10. TicketCity Bowl - #12 Houston vs. #28 Penn State (1/2/2012)
9. Liberty Bowl - #31 Cincinnati vs. #34 Vanderbilt (12/31/2011)
8. Cotton Bowl - #23 Kansas State vs. #11 Arkansas (1/6/2012)
7. Sugar Bowl - #9 Michigan vs. #22 Virginia Tech (1/3/2012)
6. Champs Sports Bowl - #24 Florida State vs. #21 Notre Dame (12/29/2011)
5. Capital One Bowl - #19 Nebraska vs. #15 South Carolina (1/2/2012)
4. Outback Bowl - #16 Michigan State vs. #14 Georgia (1/2/2012)
3. Fiesta Bowl - #7 Stanford vs. #4 Oklahoma State (1/2/2012)
2. Rose Bowl - #6 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon (1/2/2012)
1. BCS Championship - #2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU (1/9/2012)

Week 15 - 2011 College Football Rankings

The Army-Navy football game results had very little impact on the rankings. In fact, the results were exactly as you would expect based on their previous rankings, so even Army and Navy did not move up or down in the rankings. After running a number of simulations, we have estimated that Alabama needs to beat LSU in regulation by at least four points in the National Championship game for the Crimson Tide to take over the top ranking. No other team stands a chance of being declared champion after the bowls. However, this is a rough estimate. The results of every bowl game will have some impact on the rankings. Our estimate is simply based on the assumption that all other bowl games turn out as would be predicted by their current rankings. In other words, in the end, Alabama might need to win by more than four, or it might only need to win by four, depending on the results of other games. The requirement to win by four is merely an estimate.

1. LSU Tigers (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Oregon Ducks (11-2) - 3.6
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) - 4.1
5. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 4.4
6. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 6.5
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.7
8. USC Trojans (10-2) - 9.2
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 10.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) - 10.6
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 10.8
12. Houston Cougars (12-1) - 11.2
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) - 11.5
14. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) - 13.9
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 15.2
16. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 16.3
17. Baylor Bears (9-3) - 17.0
18. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2) - 18.8
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 19.7
20. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 19.9
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 21.4
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 21.5
23. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) - 22.8
24. Florida State Seminoles (8-4) - 23.7
25. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 24.1
26. Texas Longhorns (7-5) - 26.4
27. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 28.5
28. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) - 28.6
29. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 29.5
30. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4) - 29.9
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 31.5
32. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) - 31.8
33. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 32.7
34. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 34.7
35. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) - 34.9
36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 37.2
37. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 37.3
38. Florida Gators (6-6) - 38.3
39. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 40.1
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 41.1
41. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 41.9
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 42.5
43. California Golden Bears (7-5) - 44.5
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 45.1
45. Temple Owls (8-4) - 45.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 45.8
47. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 47.1
48. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 47.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 47.5
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.5
51. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 51.7
52. Miami Hurricanes (6-6) - 51.8
53. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 52.1
54. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 54.1
55. South Florida Bulls (5-7) - 54.7
56. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 55.1
57. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 58.0
58. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) - 58.1
59. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 58.8
60. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 59.4
61. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 59.7
62. Utah Utes (7-5) - 61.7
63. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 63.4
64. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 64.3
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.9
66. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 66.1
67. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 67.3
68. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 67.4
69. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 67.5
70. Navy Midshipmen (5-7) - 68.4
71. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 71.9
72. Utah State Aggies (7-5) - 73.3
73. UCF Knights (5-7) - 73.6
74. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 74.4
75. FIU Golden Panthers (8-4) - 75.0
76. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 75.6
77. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 75.7
78. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 77.9
79. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7) - 78.9
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 78.9
81. Boston College Eagles (4-8) - 80.2
82. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 80.9
83. ECU Pirates (5-7) - 82.1
84. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.7
85. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 85.6
86. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) - 87.2
88. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 88.1
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 88.9
90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 91.2
91. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 93.2
92. Rice Owls (4-8) - 93.4
93. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 93.9
94. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 94.3
95. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-9) - 94.4
96. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 95.3
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 96.0
98. Army Black Knights (3-9) - 99.1
99. Washington State Cougars (4-8) - 100.4
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 100.7
101. New Mexico State Aggies (4-9) - 101.5
102. Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 102.0
103. Colorado Buffaloes (3-10) - 102.1
104. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 102.4
105. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.7
106. Buffalo Bulls (3-9) - 105.8
107. Idaho Vandals (2-10) - 107.3
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-10) - 107.3
109. Oregon State Beavers (3-9) - 108.3
110. Indiana Hoosiers (1-11) - 109.4
111. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 109.9
112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3
113. Troy Trojans (3-9) - 112.4
114. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-10) - 113.7
115. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 114.5
116. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 116.2
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-11) - 116.8
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 117.4
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (1-11) - 119.2
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.8

Week 14 - 2011 College Football Rankings

According to our analysis, the two teams who had the best season are squaring it off in this year's national championship game. LSU has solidified its hold on the #1 spot with a big victory over Georgia, and it remains unclear what an Alabama victory would mean, especially since LSU already beat Alabama this season. We suspect that it would take more than a close victory for Alabama to actually overtake LSU in our rankings. We will run some simulations as the bowls approach and will also provide some analysis of the bowl selections in the near future. For now, here are the rankings after 14 weeks, with one more regular season game to go (Army vs. Navy in week 15):

1. LSU Tigers (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Oregon Ducks (11-2) - 3.6
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) - 4.1
5. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 4.4
6. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 6.5
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.7
8. USC Trojans (10-2) - 9.2
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 10.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) - 10.6
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 10.8
12. Houston Cougars (12-1) - 11.3
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) - 11.4
14. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) - 13.9
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 15.2
16. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 16.3
17. Baylor Bears (9-3) - 17.0
18. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2) - 18.7
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 19.8
20. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 19.9
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 21.3
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 21.5
23. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) - 22.9
24. Florida State Seminoles (8-4) - 23.7
25. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 24.1
26. Texas Longhorns (7-5) - 26.4
27. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 28.4
28. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) - 28.6
29. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 29.5
30. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4) - 29.9
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 31.5
32. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) - 31.9
33. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 32.7
34. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 34.6
35. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) - 34.9
36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 37.2
37. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 37.3
38. Florida Gators (6-6) - 38.3
39. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 40.1
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 41.1
41. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 41.9
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 42.5
43. California Golden Bears (7-5) - 44.5
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 45.0
45. Temple Owls (8-4) - 45.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 45.9
47. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 47.0
48. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 47.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 47.5
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.6
51. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 51.7
52. Miami Hurricanes (6-6) - 51.8
53. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 52.0
54. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 53.8
55. South Florida Bulls (5-7) - 54.8
56. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 55.1
57. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) - 58.0
58. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 58.1
59. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 58.7
60. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 59.4
61. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 59.7
62. Utah Utes (7-5) - 61.8
63. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 63.6
64. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 64.5
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 66.0
66. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 66.2
67. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 67.3
68. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 67.6
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 67.6
70. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 67.7
71. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 72.1
72. Utah State Aggies (7-5) - 73.3
73. UCF Knights (5-7) - 73.6
74. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 74.5
75. FIU Golden Panthers (8-4) - 75.0
76. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 75.5
77. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 75.7
78. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 77.8
79. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7) - 78.8
80. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 79.1
81. Boston College Eagles (4-8) - 80.2
82. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 80.9
83. ECU Pirates (5-7) - 82.1
84. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.6
85. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 85.6
86. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) - 87.2
88. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 88.1
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 88.9
90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 91.2
91. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 93.2
92. Rice Owls (4-8) - 93.4
93. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 93.9
94. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 94.3
95. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-9) - 94.4
96. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 95.3
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 96.0
98. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 99.3
99. Washington State Cougars (4-8) - 100.4
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 100.6
101. New Mexico State Aggies (4-9) - 101.5
102. Colorado Buffaloes (3-10) - 102.0
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 102.0
104. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 102.4
105. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.7
106. Buffalo Bulls (3-9) - 105.8
107. Idaho Vandals (2-10) - 107.3
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-10) - 107.3
109. Oregon State Beavers (3-9) - 108.3
110. Indiana Hoosiers (1-11) - 109.4
111. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 109.9
112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3
113. Troy Trojans (3-9) - 112.4
114. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-10) - 113.7
115. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 114.5
116. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 116.2
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-11) - 116.8
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 117.4
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (1-11) - 119.2
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.8

Week 13 - 2011 College Football Rankings

LSU's impressive win over Arkansas broke the tie at the top for this week, but Alabama is still #2 in the rankings. On the ironic side, the PAC-12 South will be represented in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game by #73 UCLA. Quite literally, according to our analysis, over half of all FBS teams had better seasons than the 6-6 Bruins, yet they are in the championship game ... and one win away from playing in the Rose Bowl. There seems to be some confusion over whether if UCLA were to lose this game if they would then be inelligible to go to any bowl at all, because of their resulting losing record. It seems like it's Rose Bowl or bust for the Bruins this year - quite literally.

1. LSU Tigers (12-0) - 1.3
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 1.9
3. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 3.6
4. Boise State Broncos (10-1) - 4.0
5. Houston Cougars (12-0) - 4.7
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) - 6.5
7. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) - 6.8
8. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 7.4
9. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) - 9.4
10. USC Trojans (10-2) - 10.3
11. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 11.2
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 12.1
13. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - 12.3
14. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2) - 14.2
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 15.8
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-1) - 16.0
17. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) - 16.3
18. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 18.9
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 19.3
20. Baylor Bears (8-3) - 20.1
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 20.6
22. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) - 21.8
23. Texas Longhorns (7-4) - 23.1
24. Florida State Seminoles (8-4) - 23.3
25. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (10-2) - 27.3
26. Clemson Tigers (9-3) - 27.7
(tie) Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) - 27.7
(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4) - 27.7
29. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 27.8
30. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 28.5
31. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) - 31.4
32. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3) - 31.8
33. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 33.8
34. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) - 34.0
35. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 36.2
36. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-2) - 36.7
37. Florida Gators (6-6) - 37.7
38. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 39.4
39. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 40.3
40. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 41.9
41. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 42.2
42. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 43.1
43. California Golden Bears (7-5) - 43.7
44. BYU Cougars (8-3) - 44.3
45. Temple Owls (8-4) - 44.7
46. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 46.1
47. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 46.3
48. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 47.9
49. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 48.7
50. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-3) - 48.9
51. Miami Hurricanes (6-6) - 50.4
52. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 51.6
53. San Diego State Aztecs (7-4) - 52.4
54. Ohio Bobcats (9-3) - 52.9
55. South Florida Bulls (5-6) - 53.4
56. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-6) - 54.1
57. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) - 55.1
58. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 58.5
59. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 60.2
60. Iowa State Cyclones (6-5) - 60.6
61. Utah Utes (7-5) - 62.3
62. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 63.0
63. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-5) - 63.5
64. Connecticut Huskies (5-6) - 65.6
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.9
66. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 66.1
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (7-4) - 66.1
68. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 66.9
69. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 67.3
70. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 68.1
71. Utah State Aggies (6-5) - 72.1
72. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 72.9
73. UCLA Bruins (6-6) - 74.1
74. UCF Knights (5-7) - 74.3
75. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 75.0
76. FIU Golden Panthers (8-4) - 75.8
(tie) Syracuse Orange (5-6) - 75.8
78. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 76.3
79. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7) - 79.3
80. Boston College Eagles (4-8) - 80.1
81. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 80.2
82. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 81.0
83. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.7
84. ECU Pirates (5-7) - 83.2
85. Hawaii Warriors (6-6) - 83.3
86. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) - 87.2
88. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 88.0
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 88.7
90. Rice Owls (4-8) - 92.5
91. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 92.6
92. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 93.6
93. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-8) - 94.1
94. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 94.3
95. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 94.5
96. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-8) - 95.0
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 97.0
98. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 98.8
99. Washington State Cougars (4-8) - 100.1
100. New Mexico State Aggies (4-8) - 100.9
101. Colorado Buffaloes (3-10) - 101.4
102. Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 101.8
103. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 101.9
104. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.4
105. North Texas Mean Green (4-7) - 105.0
106. Idaho Vandals (2-9) - 105.7
107. Buffalo Bulls (3-9) - 105.9
108. Ole Miss Rebels (2-10) - 107.0
109. Oregon State Beavers (3-9) - 108.4
110. Colorado State Rams (3-8) - 109.3
111. Indiana Hoosiers (1-11) - 109.7
112. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-9) - 112.1
113. Troy Trojans (3-8) - 112.4
114. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 112.6
115. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 114.6
116. UNLV Rebels (2-9) - 116.0
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-11) - 117.0
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 118.1
(tie) Florida Atlantic Owls (1-10) - 118.1
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-10) - 120.0

Week 12 - 2011 College Football Rankings

We're not buying into the hype. Unlike the human polls, we don't have three SEC teams as the top three teams in the rankings. We just have two - both tied for first place. This week's LSU-Arkansas and Alabama-Arkansas games will do a lot to determine how this tie is broken.

In other news, Arizona State continues its drop. Once ranked as high as 13th in our analysis, the Sun Devils have dropped all the way to 45th. More concerning for the Sun Devils is that they are one loss to California away from dropping to 4th place in the awful PAC 12 South division, when just a few weeks ago, they seemed to be a lock to win the division outright after beating both USC and Utah. Only Arizona (who beat the Sun Devils this week) and Colorado have worse records in the division. But then again, all the "bad" teams are beating Arizona State lately.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) - 1.5
(tie) LSU Tigers (11-0) - 1.5
3. Oregon Ducks (9-2) - 3.9
4. Boise State Broncos (9-1) - 4.4
(tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) - 4.4
6. Houston Cougars (11-0) - 6.9
7. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) - 8.0
8. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) - 8.1
9. Stanford Cardinal (10-1) - 8.5
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1) - 9.6
11. Michigan Wolverines (9-2) - 10.1
12. USC Trojans (9-2) - 11.4
13. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2) - 13.7
14. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) - 15.0
(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (10-1) - 15.0
16. Texas A&M Aggies (6-5) - 15.3
17. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) - 17.2
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-3) - 18.4
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) - 19.4
20. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) - 20.7
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3) - 21.1
22. Baylor Bears (7-3) - 22.1
23. Clemson Tigers (9-2) - 23.5
24. Florida State Seminoles (7-4) - 24.7
(tie) Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) - 24.7
26. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-3) - 24.8
27. Texas Longhorns (6-4) - 25.4
28. Missouri Tigers (6-5) - 29.5
29. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-3) - 29.6
30. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (9-2) - 30.0
31. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3) - 31.3
32. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-5) - 31.7
33. Toledo Rockets (7-4) - 32.8
34. Florida Gators (6-5) - 35.1
35. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) - 36.4
36. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-3) - 37.3
37. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-2) - 37.8
38. Miami Hurricanes (6-5) - 38.0
39. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-5) - 38.6
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) - 40.1
41. Auburn Tigers (7-4) - 41.6
42. Tennessee Volunteers (5-6) - 42.0
43. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) - 42.8
44. South Florida Bulls (5-5) - 44.8
45. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-5) - 45.7
46. BYU Cougars (8-3) - 46.1
47. NC State Wolfpack (6-5) - 47.2
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-6) - 47.6
49. Virginia Cavaliers (8-3) - 48.3
50. Temple Owls (7-4) - 50.1
51. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-3) - 50.6
52. Ohio Bobcats (8-3) - 52.6
53. Utah Utes (7-4) - 52.8
54. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-5) - 54.8
55. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) - 54.9
56. California Golden Bears (6-5) - 57.2
57. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-4) - 57.4
58. Louisville Cardinals (6-5) - 58.3
59. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-4) - 59.1
60. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-5) - 59.5
61. Iowa State Cyclones (6-4) - 59.9
62. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-6) - 60.7
63. Northwestern Wildcats (6-5) - 61.3
(tie) San Diego State Aztecs (6-4) - 61.3
65. Western Michigan Broncos (6-5) - 64.1
66. SMU Mustangs (6-5) - 65.7
67. Wyoming Cowboys (7-3) - 66.9
68. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-3) - 68.2
69. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 68.6
70. Syracuse Orange (5-5) - 70.5
71. UCLA Bruins (6-5) - 72.3
72. Purdue Boilermakers (5-6) - 73.0
73. Washington Huskies (6-5) - 74.1
74. Connecticut Huskies (4-6) - 74.7
75. Ball State Cardinals (6-5) - 75.2
76. FIU Golden Panthers (7-4) - 76.3
77. Utah State Aggies (5-5) - 76.4
78. Air Force Falcons (6-5) - 77.1
79. ECU Pirates (5-6) - 78.3
80. UCF Knights (4-7) - 78.6
81. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-6) - 80.0
82. Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) - 82.5
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (5-6) - 82.5
84. Boston College Eagles (3-8) - 84.8
85. Kentucky Wildcats (4-7) - 85.5
86. San Jose State Spartans (4-7) - 86.1
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-5) - 87.0
88. UTEP Miners (5-6) - 87.1
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-7) - 90.5
90. Kansas Jayhawks (2-9) - 91.5
91. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-6) - 91.6
92. Arizona Wildcats (3-8) - 93.4
93. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-7) - 93.5
94. Rice Owls (4-7) - 93.6
95. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-8) - 94.4
96. Washington State Cougars (4-7) - 96.0
97. Maryland Terrapins (2-9) - 98.4
98. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 98.5
(tie) New Mexico State Aggies (4-7) - 98.5
100. Duke Blue Devils (3-8) - 100.2
101. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-5) - 101.1
102. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.1
103. Buffalo Bulls (3-8) - 102.7
104. North Texas Mean Green (4-7) - 103.7
105. Ole Miss Rebels (2-9) - 104.4
106. Idaho Vandals (2-9) - 106.2
107. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-9) - 107.8
108. Oregon State Beavers (3-8) - 108.2
109. Colorado State Rams (3-7) - 108.8
(tie) Troy Trojans (3-7) - 108.8
111. Colorado Buffaloes (2-10) - 108.9
112. Indiana Hoosiers (1-10) - 109.4
113. UAB Blazers (3-8) - 111.0
114. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8) - 113.3
115. Memphis Tigers (2-9) - 114.5
116. UNLV Rebels (2-8) - 115.9
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-10) - 117.1
118. Akron Zips (1-10) - 117.4
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-10) - 119.5
(tie) New Mexico Lobos (1-10) - 119.5

Week 11 - 2011 College Football Rankings

We're halfway through November. One team remains winless (the Florida Atlantic Owls) and three teams remain undefeated (the LSU Tigers, the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Houston Cougars). It would take going undefeated the rest of the way (including beating their rival #13 USC) and having Arizona State lose to either #59 California or rival #101 Arizona, but the #78 UCLA Bruins still have a chance to represent the PAC 12 South in the inaugural PAC 12 championship game, demonstrating how pathetic that division (outside of USC which cannot play in the championship game) is turning out to be this year. Even #50 Utah still has a chance, despite losing their first four conference games. (It would take UCLA losing to USC or #102 Colorado, Arizona State losing both of its games and the Utes beating both #95 Washington State and Colorado.)

It sounds like there will be lots of intriguing games to watch as the season winds down. Here are the rankings as they stand according to our latest analysis:

1. LSU Tigers (10-0) - 1.2
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) - 1.8
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0) - 3.2
4. Oregon Ducks (9-1) - 3.8
5. Boise State Broncos (8-1) - 5.9
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) - 6.2
7. Stanford Cardinal (9-1) - 7.2
8. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) - 7.5
9. Houston Cougars (10-0) - 9.4
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-1) - 10.5
11. Michigan Wolverines (8-2) - 12.0
12. Clemson Tigers (9-1) - 12.5
13. USC Trojans (8-2) - 12.8
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1) - 14.0
15. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) - 15.1
16. TCU Horned Frogs (8-2) - 16.5
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3) - 17.7
18. Texas A&M Aggies (5-5) - 18.2
19. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (9-1) - 19.1
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) - 19.2
21. Michigan State Spartans (8-2) - 20.9
22. Florida State Seminoles (7-3) - 21.3
23. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) - 22.6
24. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) - 23.2
25. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) - 25.6
26. Texas Longhorns (6-3) - 25.8
27. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3) - 26.4
28. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-4) - 28.7
29. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-3) - 29.0
30. Missouri Tigers (5-5) - 29.1
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2) - 32.1
32. Baylor Bears (6-3) - 32.5
33. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) - 34.4
34. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-4) - 34.9
35. Toledo Rockets (6-4) - 35.1
36. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-4) - 36.0
37. Miami Hurricanes (5-5) - 37.8
38. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-2) - 38.8
39. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-3) - 39.1
40. South Florida Bulls (5-4) - 39.7
41. Florida Gators (5-5) - 40.5
42. Auburn Tigers (6-4) - 43.0
43. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-5) - 43.2
44. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) - 43.3
45. Tennessee Volunteers (4-6) - 46.7
46. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-3) - 46.8
47. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-3) - 48.9
48. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-5) - 49.5
49. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) - 50.5
50. Utah Utes (6-4) - 50.7
51. Ohio Bobcats (7-3) - 51.3
52. BYU Cougars (7-3) - 52.4
53. Washington Huskies (6-4) - 52.7
54. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-5) - 53.4
55. Temple Owls (6-4) - 54.2
56. San Diego State Aztecs (6-3) - 55.4
57. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) - 55.9
58. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-4) - 58.5
59. California Golden Bears (6-4) - 58.8
60. SMU Mustangs (6-4) - 59.8
61. Northwestern Wildcats (5-5) - 60.5
(tie) Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) - 60.5
63. Louisville Cardinals (5-5) - 61.3
64. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-5) - 62.5
65. Navy Midshipmen (4-6) - 62.6
66. Western Michigan Broncos (5-5) - 64.3
67. NC State Wolfpack (5-5) - 66.5
68. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-3) - 68.4
69. Wyoming Cowboys (6-3) - 68.9
70. Purdue Boilermakers (5-5) - 69.1
71. Syracuse Orange (5-5) - 70.4
72. Connecticut Huskies (4-5) - 72.7
73. Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) - 73.7
74. Utah State Aggies (4-5) - 75.4
75. UCF Knights (4-6) - 75.7
76. Ball State Cardinals (6-4) - 75.8
77. Hawaii Warriors (5-5) - 76.5
78. UCLA Bruins (5-5) - 78.5
79. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-6) - 78.9
80. Air Force Falcons (5-5) - 79.1
81. FIU Golden Panthers (6-4) - 80.3
82. ECU Pirates (4-6) - 81.6
83. UTEP Miners (5-5) - 83.7
84. Bowling Green Falcons (4-6) - 84.7
(tie) Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-4) - 84.7
86. Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) - 86.6
87. Boston College Eagles (3-7) - 89.0
(tie) Kansas Jayhawks (2-8) - 89.0
89. San Jose State Spartans (3-7) - 89.4
90. Miami University RedHawks (4-6) - 89.6
91. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-7) - 90.0
92. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-6) - 93.2
93. Maryland Terrapins (2-8) - 93.4
94. Rice Owls (3-7) - 94.0
95. Washington State Cougars (4-6) - 95.8
96. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-7) - 96.4
97. New Mexico State Aggies (4-6) - 96.5
98. Army Black Knights (3-7) - 96.8
99. North Texas Mean Green (4-6) - 100.8
100. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-8) - 101.1
101. Arizona Wildcats (2-8) - 101.5
102. Colorado Buffaloes (2-9) - 101.9
103. Duke Blue Devils (3-7) - 102.1
104. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-5) - 104.3
105. Ole Miss Rebels (2-8) - 104.4
106. Colorado State Rams (3-6) - 104.8
107. Indiana Hoosiers (1-9) - 106.0
108. Buffalo Bulls (2-8) - 106.5
109. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-8) - 107.7
110. Idaho Vandals (2-8) - 108.7
111. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-7) - 110.5
112. Troy Trojans (2-7) - 110.8
113. UNLV Rebels (2-7) - 114.0
114. UAB Blazers (2-8) - 114.1
115. Oregon State Beavers (2-8) - 114.8
116. Memphis Tigers (2-8) - 115.1
117. Akron Zips (1-9) - 116.2
118. Tulane Green Wave (2-9) - 117.8
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-9) - 119.3
(tie) New Mexico Lobos (1-9) - 119.3

Week 10 - 2011 College Football Rankings

An overtime win on the road over Alabama was enough for the LSU Tigers to take over the #1 spot in our analysis this week. However, because the game was so close, Alabama did manage to retain the #2 spot. Even with a loss, Alabama has had greater success this season (so far) than undefeated teams like Oklahoma State, Boise State, Stanford and Houston.

However, we find it even more interesting that Texas A&M remains at #13 despite having four losses. Those four losses have been by 1 point to (currently #3) Oklahoma State, four points to (currently #14) Arkansas, seven points to (currently #35) Missouri and by 16 points to (currently #6) Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the Aggies' wins have all been by large margins (even over currently #32 Baylor) except for one five-point victory over (currently #51) Texas Tech. It's not a national championship resume, but it's not a bad one either, considering the difficulty of the Aggies' schedule.

1. LSU Tigers (9-0) - 1.4
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) - 1.9
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0) - 3.3
4. Boise State Broncos (8-0) - 4.4
5. Stanford Cardinal (9-0) - 4.5
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) - 6.1
7. Oregon Ducks (8-1) - 6.6
8. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) - 8.4
9. Houston Cougars (9-0) - 9.3
10. Clemson Tigers (8-1) - 9.4
11. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-1) - 12.9
12. USC Trojans (7-2) - 13.2
13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-4) - 13.9
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-1) - 14.5
15. Texas Longhorns (6-2) - 15.7
(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1) - 15.7
17. Michigan Wolverines (7-2) - 16.3
18. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) - 17.6
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) - 21.2
20. Florida State Seminoles (6-3) - 21.4
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2) - 22.8
(tie) Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) - 22.8
23. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2) - 22.9
24. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) - 23.3
(tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-3) - 23.3
26. TCU Horned Frogs (7-2) - 24.0
27. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3) - 24.5
28. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-3) - 27.7
29. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) - 28.2
30. Michigan State Spartans (7-2) - 29.2
31. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-3) - 32.1
32. Baylor Bears (5-3) - 32.7
33. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 33.3
34. Miami Hurricanes (5-4) - 35.5
35. Missouri Tigers (4-5) - 36.7
36. Toledo Rockets (5-4) - 36.8
37. Auburn Tigers (6-3) - 37.0
38. Tennessee Volunteers (4-5) - 37.1
39. Florida Gators (5-4) - 39.5
40. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3) - 39.7
41. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) - 41.0
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-3) - 41.7
43. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-2) - 42.7
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-4) - 43.7
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) - 45.1
46. Washington Huskies (6-3) - 45.8
47. NC State Wolfpack (5-4) - 48.2
48. Temple Owls (5-4) - 49.2
49. Louisville Cardinals (5-4) - 50.0
50. South Florida Bulls (4-4) - 51.7
51. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4) - 52.2
52. SMU Mustangs (6-3) - 52.3
53. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-5) - 52.5
54. Virginia Cavaliers (6-3) - 54.6
55. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) - 54.9
(tie) Northern Illinois Huskies (6-3) - 54.9
57. Ohio Bobcats (6-3) - 55.5
58. San Diego State Aztecs (5-3) - 55.9
59. BYU Cougars (6-3) - 58.8
60. Utah Utes (5-4) - 60.2
61. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-4) - 61.7
62. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-4) - 62.3
63. Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 62.5
64. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-5) - 63.1
65. Syracuse Orange (5-4) - 63.6
66. California Golden Bears (5-4) - 65.5
67. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-2) - 66.0
68. Northwestern Wildcats (4-5) - 67.5
69. Navy Midshipmen (3-6) - 68.0
70. UCLA Bruins (5-4) - 71.5
71. Wyoming Cowboys (5-3) - 71.6
72. Purdue Boilermakers (4-5) - 72.5
73. Connecticut Huskies (4-5) - 73.7
74. Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) - 73.8
75. Hawaii Warriors (5-4) - 74.3
76. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-5) - 76.3
77. Utah State Aggies (3-5) - 76.7
78. Ball State Cardinals (6-4) - 78.8
79. Air Force Falcons (5-4) - 79.0
80. ECU Pirates (4-5) - 79.5
81. UCF Knights (4-5) - 80.2
82. Kentucky Wildcats (4-5) - 80.9
83. FIU Golden Panthers (5-4) - 82.8
84. Bowling Green Falcons (4-5) - 82.9
85. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4) - 86.8
86. Rice Owls (3-6) - 87.1
87. Arizona Wildcats (2-7) - 87.3
88. UTEP Miners (4-5) - 87.5
89. San Jose State Spartans (3-6) - 88.4
90. Maryland Terrapins (2-7) - 90.4
91. Miami University RedHawks (4-5) - 90.6
92. Kansas Jayhawks (2-7) - 92.0
93. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-6) - 93.4
94. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-7) - 96.3
95. Army Black Knights (3-6) - 96.5
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-7) - 96.5
97. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-6) - 97.4
98. Boston College Eagles (2-7) - 97.9
99. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-7) - 98.7
100. New Mexico State Aggies (3-6) - 100.5
101. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-4) - 101.3
102. Duke Blue Devils (3-6) - 101.6
103. North Texas Mean Green (3-6) - 102.9
104. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-6) - 103.6
105. Buffalo Bulls (2-7) - 105.0
106. Idaho Vandals (2-7) - 106.8
(tie) Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-7) - 106.8
108. Indiana Hoosiers (1-9) - 107.0
109. Washington State Cougars (3-6) - 107.8
110. Colorado State Rams (3-5) - 108.1
111. UNLV Rebels (2-6) - 110.9
112. Troy Trojans (2-6) - 111.1
113. Colorado Buffaloes (1-9) - 111.6
114. Oregon State Beavers (2-7) - 113.6
115. Memphis Tigers (2-7) - 114.0
116. Akron Zips (1-8) - 115.1
117. UAB Blazers (1-8) - 116.4
118. Tulane Green Wave (2-8) - 118.1
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-8) - 118.3
120. New Mexico Lobos (0-9) - 120.2

Week 9 - 2011 College Football Rankings

Alabama and LSU are on a collision course for a #1 versus #2 showdown this weekend. The gap tightened between the two just a bit this week, suggesting that an LSU victory should be enough to move the Tigers to the top spot. On the other hand, the sizeable difference between LSU and Oklahoma State at #3 suggest that a close game might also result in the loser staying ahead of the Cowboys in next week's rankings, even if Oklahoma State remains undefeated. All of this, of course, is affected by the performance of other teams these teams have played, and in fact, since everything is connected, in some small portion, the results of every game in the schedule. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. But for now, here are the rankings after nine weeks of the college football season. Six teams remain undefeated while only two teams have yet to win a game:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) - 1.3
2. LSU Tigers (8-0) - 1.7
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0) - 3.2
4. Boise State Broncos (7-0) - 4.4
5. Stanford Cardinal (8-0) - 4.6
6. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) - 6.5
7. Oregon Ducks (7-1) - 6.7
8. Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) - 9.0
9. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) - 9.2
10. Clemson Tigers (8-1) - 9.4
11. Houston Cougars (8-0) - 11.2
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) - 11.4
13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-3) - 13.7
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1) - 15.3
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) - 15.7
16. USC Trojans (6-2) - 16.1
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1) - 17.9
18. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-1) - 19.5
19. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-1) - 20.1
20. Michigan State Spartans (6-2) - 21.2
21. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) - 21.9
22. Texas Longhorns (5-2) - 22.1
23. Georgia Bulldogs (6-2) - 22.2
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3) - 22.7
25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2) - 24.2
26. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-3) - 25.8
27. Florida State Seminoles (5-3) - 26.5
28. Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) - 27.1
29. TCU Horned Frogs (6-2) - 28.1
30. Toledo Rockets (5-3) - 28.4
31. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3) - 32.7
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3) - 33.3
33. Missouri Tigers (4-4) - 33.5
34. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) - 33.6
35. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) - 34.3
36. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-2) - 35.7
37. Auburn Tigers (6-3) - 37.8
38. Baylor Bears (4-3) - 38.5
39. Miami Hurricanes (4-4) - 39.6
40. Washington Huskies (6-2) - 40.1
41. Tennessee Volunteers (3-5) - 41.0
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-3) - 41.3
43. Temple Owls (5-3) - 41.4
44. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-2) - 43.5
45. Florida Gators (4-4) - 44.1
46. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3) - 46.4
47. South Florida Bulls (4-3) - 47.6
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (4-4) - 47.6
49. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) - 48.9
50. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) - 50.8
51. Louisville Cardinals (4-4) - 51.6
52. SMU Mustangs (5-3) - 53.3
53. Syracuse Orange (5-3) - 53.7
54. BYU Cougars (6-3) - 54.1
55. San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) - 54.3
56. Ohio Bobcats (5-3) - 57.0
(tie) Western Michigan Broncos (5-4) - 57.0
58. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3) - 57.5
59. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7-2) - 60.1
60. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) - 60.7
61. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3) - 61.3
62. Utah Utes (4-4) - 61.4
63. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-4) - 63.2
64. Virginia Cavaliers (5-3) - 63.5
65. NC State Wolfpack (4-4) - 63.8
66. Purdue Boilermakers (4-4) - 65.3
67. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-4) - 65.6
68. Wyoming Cowboys (5-2) - 69.0
69. Hawaii Warriors (5-3) - 70.0
70. California Golden Bears (4-4) - 72.2
71. ECU Pirates (4-4) - 72.4
(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (4-4) - 72.4
73. FIU Golden Panthers (5-3) - 72.9
74. Navy Midshipmen (2-6) - 75.9
75. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-5) - 76.1
76. UCF Knights (4-4) - 77.2
77. UCLA Bruins (4-4) - 77.3
78. Utah State Aggies (2-5) - 77.5
79. Northwestern Wildcats (3-5) - 77.6
80. Connecticut Huskies (3-5) - 77.9
81. Ball State Cardinals (5-4) - 80.6
82. UTEP Miners (4-4) - 83.0
83. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-3) - 83.2
84. Arizona Wildcats (2-6) - 83.6
(tie) Bowling Green Falcons (4-5) - 83.6
86. Air Force Falcons (4-4) - 84.4
87. San Jose State Spartans (3-5) - 86.1
88. Maryland Terrapins (2-6) - 87.9
89. Ole Miss Rebels (2-6) - 88.1
90. Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) - 89.3
91. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-5) - 90.2
92. Boston College Eagles (2-6) - 93.5
93. Rice Owls (2-6) - 94.6
94. Miami University RedHawks (3-5) - 94.7
95. Kansas Jayhawks (2-6) - 96.2
96. Army Black Knights (3-5) - 96.3
97. Duke Blue Devils (3-5) - 96.8
98. New Mexico State Aggies (3-5) - 98.2
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-5) - 99.0
100. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6) - 99.6
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-6) - 100.2
102. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6) - 101.4
103. Washington State Cougars (3-5) - 101.7
104. North Texas Mean Green (3-6) - 103.9
105. Troy Trojans (2-5) - 105.0
106. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-4) - 107.4
107. Colorado State Rams (3-5) - 107.6
108. Buffalo Bulls (2-7) - 109.1
109. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-6) - 109.2
110. Colorado Buffaloes (1-8) - 109.5
111. UNLV Rebels (2-5) - 109.6
112. Indiana Hoosiers (1-8) - 110.7
113. Idaho Vandals (1-7) - 111.1
114. Oregon State Beavers (2-6) - 112.6
115. Akron Zips (1-7) - 113.2
116. Memphis Tigers (2-7) - 115.1
117. UAB Blazers (1-7) - 116.4
118. Tulane Green Wave (2-7) - 117.7
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-7) - 118.6
120. New Mexico Lobos (0-8) - 120.2

Week 8 - 2011 College Football Rankings

Two previously undefeated teams lost this weekend: Oklahoma and Wisconsin. The difference between a loss and victory in each case was literally a matter of inches. Oklahoma's kicker hit the upright in a late field goal and the Sooners lost to Texas Tech by three, while the Michigan State-Wisconsin game had one of the most amazing endings in college football history, with a tipped Hail Mary pass being caught but the player was originally ruled as having never quite crossed the goal line only to have that ruling be overturned by a video review that showed the ball barely getting across for the touchdown.

How does this affect the rankings? The top six teams are still undefeated, but Wisconsin and Oklahoma don't drop very far. Alabama maintains the top ranking for the fifth straight week. Auburn was blown out yet again - this time by LSU - but we still find ourselves wondering if the voters will still find an excuse to keep the Tigers in the Top 25. (We have them at #41, which is essentially where we thought they belonged last week - before they failed to be competitive with a top-tier team yet again.)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) - 1.0
2. LSU Tigers (8-0) - 2.1
3. Boise State Broncos (7-0) - 3.9
(tie) Stanford Cardinal (7-0) - 3.9
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) - 4.4
6. Clemson Tigers (8-0) - 6.2
7. Wisconsin Badgers (6-1) - 7.2
8. Oregon Ducks (6-1) - 7.4
9. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) - 9.2
10. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) - 10.5
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) - 10.8
12. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) - 12.3
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) - 13.2
14. Houston Cougars (7-0) - 14.1
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) - 16.6
(tie) Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1) - 16.6
17. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) - 16.8
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) - 19.1
19. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) - 20.2
20. USC Trojans (6-1) - 21.2
21. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) - 21.5
22. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) - 22.1
23. Georgia Bulldogs (5-2) - 23.8
24. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-1) - 24.6
25. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) - 25.3
26. Toledo Rockets (5-3) - 25.5
27. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-3) - 25.6
28. Miami Hurricanes (4-3) - 25.8
29. Florida State Seminoles (4-3) - 28.1
30. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) - 29.8
31. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3) - 31.4
32. Texas Longhorns (4-2) - 31.6
33. Baylor Bears (4-2) - 31.8
34. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) - 34.9
35. Temple Owls (5-3) - 35.9
36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2) - 37.6
37. Tennessee Volunteers (3-4) - 38.5
38. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2) - 38.6
39. SMU Mustangs (5-2) - 40.0
40. Florida Gators (4-3) - 40.7
41. Auburn Tigers (5-3) - 41.6
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2) - 42.1
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-3) - 43.2
44. Washington Huskies (5-2) - 43.3
45. Syracuse Orange (5-2) - 43.6
46. Missouri Tigers (3-4) - 44.2
47. South Florida Bulls (4-3) - 47.3
48. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-3) - 47.8
49. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2) - 48.7
50. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-2) - 48.9
51. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-3) - 50.7
52. San Diego State Aztecs (4-2) - 50.8
53. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-2) - 53.0
54. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-3) - 54.2
55. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-4) - 55.1
56. Ohio Bobcats (5-3) - 55.7
57. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3) - 58.1
58. NC State Wolfpack (4-3) - 58.5
59. Western Michigan Broncos (4-4) - 58.7
60. California Golden Bears (4-3) - 59.1
61. BYU Cougars (6-2) - 59.4
62. Purdue Boilermakers (4-3) - 61.1
63. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-4) - 64.0
64. Hawaii Warriors (4-3) - 66.4
65. Louisville Cardinals (3-4) - 67.6
66. Maryland Terrapins (2-5) - 68.1
67. Utah Utes (3-4) - 68.5
68. FIU Golden Panthers (4-3) - 69.1
69. UTEP Miners (4-3) - 69.3
70. Navy Midshipmen (2-5) - 70.9
71. Bowling Green Falcons (4-4) - 71.3
72. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-4) - 72.1
73. Ball State Cardinals (5-3) - 72.4
74. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-2) - 73.8
75. Connecticut Huskies (3-4) - 74.5
76. Virginia Cavaliers (4-3) - 75.1
77. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-3) - 78.5
78. ECU Pirates (3-4) - 78.7
79. San Jose State Spartans (3-4) - 79.6
(tie) Utah State Aggies (2-5) - 79.6
81. Arizona Wildcats (2-5) - 80.8
82. UCF Knights (3-4) - 80.9
83. Wyoming Cowboys (4-2) - 82.2
84. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-5) - 82.6
85. Ole Miss Rebels (2-5) - 84.3
86. Northwestern Wildcats (2-5) - 85.5
87. Kentucky Wildcats (3-4) - 86.1
88. Air Force Falcons (3-4) - 88.2
89. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-5) - 88.5
90. UCLA Bruins (3-4) - 89.0
91. Kansas Jayhawks (2-5) - 90.7
92. Iowa State Cyclones (3-4) - 92.1
93. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-4) - 93.7
94. Rice Owls (2-5) - 94.1
95. New Mexico State Aggies (3-4) - 94.9
96. Duke Blue Devils (3-4) - 98.0
97. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-5) - 98.1
98. Washington State Cougars (3-4) - 99.0
99. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-6) - 99.5
100. Buffalo Bulls (2-6) - 99.7
101. North Texas Mean Green (3-5) - 100.0
102. Army Black Knights (2-5) - 100.4
103. Colorado State Rams (3-4) - 101.2
104. Colorado Buffaloes (1-7) - 105.3
105. Troy Trojans (2-4) - 105.5
106. Indiana Hoosiers (1-7) - 105.6
107. Miami University RedHawks (2-5) - 106.9
108. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-4) - 107.5
109. Oregon State Beavers (2-5) - 108.2
110. Boston College Eagles (1-6) - 108.5
111. Idaho Vandals (1-6) - 109.7
112. Akron Zips (1-6) - 111.8
113. Memphis Tigers (2-6) - 112.2
114. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-6) - 113.9
(tie) UNLV Rebels (1-5) - 113.9
116. UAB Blazers (1-6) - 114.7
117. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-6) - 116.5
118. Tulane Green Wave (2-6) - 117.1
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-7) - 118.8
120. New Mexico Lobos (0-7) - 120.4

Week 7 - 2011 College Football Rankings

While Alabama is ranked #1 in our analysis for the fourth straight week, LSU closed the gap a bit with their convincing 38-7 victory over Tennessee. Wisconsin also leapfrogged to #3 with its 59-7 victory of Indiana combined with Michigan's 28-14 loss to Michigan State. The Badgers passed Boise State despite the Broncos' 63-13 victory over Colorado State, indicative that Wisconsin has had the tougher schedule to this point as both teams are still undefeated. Boise State ended up holding steady at #4.

The top eight teams in the rankings are all still undefeated seven weeks into the season. Michigan, Georgia Tech and Illinois each lost their first games of the season over the weekend, leaving ten undefeated teams among the FBS ranks. Houston and Boise State are the only remaining undefeated teams that do not belong to a BCS conference.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) - 1.3
2. LSU Tigers (7-0) - 1.8
3. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) - 3.5
4. Boise State Broncos (6-0) - 3.7
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) - 5.8
6. Stanford Cardinal (6-0) - 6.0
7. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) - 6.2
8. Clemson Tigers (7-0) - 8.2
9. Oregon Ducks (5-1) - 8.8
10. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) - 9.8
11. Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) - 11.0
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) - 13.8
13. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) - 14.1
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) - 14.7
15. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) - 14.8
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) - 15.2
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) - 16.6
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) - 19.3
19. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) - 20.6
20. TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) - 21.0
21. Houston Cougars (6-0) - 21.8
22. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) - 23.0
23. Georgia Bulldogs (5-2) - 23.5
24. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) - 23.8
25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) - 24.9
26. Temple Owls (5-2) - 25.1
27. SMU Mustangs (5-1) - 27.2
(tie) Texas Longhorns (4-2) - 27.2
29. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1) - 30.4
30. Toledo Rockets (4-3) - 31.1
31. Baylor Bears (4-2) - 32.2
32. Miami Hurricanes (3-3) - 32.3
33. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3) - 33.1
34. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1) - 34.4
35. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (5-1) - 35.5
36. Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) - 36.2
37. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) - 36.5
38. Missouri Tigers (3-3) - 38.3
39. Washington Huskies (5-1) - 38.7
40. Florida State Seminoles (3-3) - 38.9
(tie) North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2) - 38.9
42. Auburn Tigers (5-2) - 40.4
43. USC Trojans (5-1) - 41.7
44. South Florida Bulls (4-2) - 43.9
45. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2) - 44.4
46. Florida Gators (4-3) - 44.6
47. San Diego State Aztecs (4-2) - 47.7
48. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (6-1) - 48.5
49. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) - 48.9
50. Western Michigan Broncos (4-3) - 49.1
51. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-3) - 53.4
52. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-2) - 54.4
53. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-3) - 55.2
54. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-3) - 56.3
55. Utah Utes (3-3) - 56.5
56. Virginia Cavaliers (4-2) - 57.3
57. FIU Golden Panthers (4-2) - 57.9
58. Maryland Terrapins (2-4) - 58.8
59. Ohio Bobcats (4-3) - 59.2
60. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-3) - 59.3
61. BYU Cougars (5-2) - 59.4
62. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-4) - 59.6
63. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-4) - 62.0
64. UCF Knights (3-3) - 62.3
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-2) - 66.1
66. Navy Midshipmen (2-4) - 67.3
67. Syracuse Orange (4-2) - 67.7
68. Ball State Cardinals (4-3) - 69.1
69. UCLA Bruins (3-3) - 69.2
70. Connecticut Huskies (3-4) - 70.1
(tie) Utah State Aggies (2-4) - 70.1
72. Hawaii Warriors (3-3) - 70.8
73. Purdue Boilermakers (3-3) - 70.9
74. NC State Wolfpack (3-3) - 74.1
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-3) - 74.1
76. UTEP Miners (3-3) - 74.7
77. Louisville Cardinals (2-4) - 76.9
78. San Jose State Spartans (3-4) - 77.2
79. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-4) - 78.7
80. Bowling Green Falcons (3-4) - 79.4
81. Northwestern Wildcats (2-4) - 80.4
82. California Golden Bears (3-3) - 81.5
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (4-2) - 81.5
84. Kansas Jayhawks (2-4) - 83.1
85. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-4) - 86.1
86. Air Force Falcons (3-3) - 87.1
87. Ole Miss Rebels (2-4) - 88.8
88. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-4) - 90.4
(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (3-3) - 90.4
90. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-3) - 90.9
91. Rice Owls (2-4) - 91.0
92. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-4) - 91.3
93. ECU Pirates (2-4) - 91.8
94. New Mexico State Aggies (3-3) - 94.8
95. Army Black Knights (2-4) - 94.9
96. Kentucky Wildcats (2-4) - 95.0
97. Colorado State Rams (3-3) - 95.4
98. Duke Blue Devils (3-3) - 95.9
99. Indiana Hoosiers (1-6) - 99.4
100. Colorado Buffaloes (1-6) - 100.1
101. Miami University RedHawks (2-4) - 100.9
102. Buffalo Bulls (2-5) - 101.6
103. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-5) - 102.8
104. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4) - 103.5
105. Troy Trojans (2-4) - 105.6
106. North Texas Mean Green (2-5) - 106.3
107. Boston College Eagles (1-5) - 106.5
108. Arizona Wildcats (1-5) - 106.8
109. Akron Zips (1-5) - 107.5
110. Idaho Vandals (1-6) - 109.7
111. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-6) - 111.5
112. UNLV Rebels (1-5) - 111.6
113. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-5) - 113.1
114. Tulane Green Wave (2-5) - 113.4
115. Oregon State Beavers (1-5) - 115.9
116. Memphis Tigers (1-6) - 116.1
117. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-4) - 116.4
118. UAB Blazers (0-6) - 117.1
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-6) - 117.5
120. New Mexico Lobos (0-6) - 120.0

Week 6 - 2011 College Football Rankings

Ten of the top eleven teams in our rankings are still undefeated this week. In total there are 13 undefeated teams currently. Unlike past years, only two of those teams (Boise State and Houston) are not in a BCS Conference. For the third straight week, Alabama comes in at #1, but there is a new #2 this week - LSU. Last week's #2, Wisconsin, dropped to #5, but not because of any poor performance by the Badgers. They simply had a bye this week, which allowed some teams that did play to move ahead of them (but those teams will have byes in the future). Also, the performance of teams Wisconsin has already played (and beaten) might have pulled their ranking down a little.

Here is how things stand currently:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) - 1.0
2. LSU Tigers (6-0) - 2.2
3. Michigan Wolverines (6-0) - 2.9
4. Boise State Broncos (5-0) - 4.5
5. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) - 4.6
6. Stanford Cardinal (5-0) - 6.5
7. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) - 6.9
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0) - 7.7
9. Clemson Tigers (6-0) - 8.9
10. Oregon Ducks (4-1) - 10.4
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) - 11.6
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) - 11.8
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) - 13.0
14. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-0) - 13.8
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) - 14.9
16. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) - 16.9
17. Baylor Bears (4-1) - 17.9
(tie) Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) - 17.9
19. Texas Longhorns (4-1) - 20.6
20. Georgia Bulldogs (4-2) - 21.2
21. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) - 23.0
(tie) TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) - 23.0
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) - 23.6
24. Houston Cougars (6-0) - 24.0
25. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1) - 24.7
26. Tennessee Volunteers (3-2) - 26.6
27. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) - 26.7
28. Western Michigan Broncos (4-2) - 27.0
29. North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1) - 28.4
30. Kansas State Wildcats (5-0) - 30.3
31. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) - 31.2
32. Florida Gators (4-2) - 31.7
33. South Florida Bulls (4-1) - 32.8
34. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1) - 33.4
35. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (5-1) - 33.8
36. Temple Owls (4-2) - 34.5
37. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) - 36.1
38. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1) - 37.0
39. Toledo Rockets (3-3) - 37.8
40. Washington Huskies (4-1) - 42.3
41. Auburn Tigers (4-2) - 43.2
42. Miami Hurricanes (2-3) - 45.0
43. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-1) - 45.1
44. Missouri Tigers (2-3) - 46.3
45. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-3) - 46.4
(tie) San Diego State Aztecs (3-2) - 46.4
47. SMU Mustangs (4-1) - 47.1
48. UCF Knights (3-2) - 47.8
49. Ohio Bobcats (4-2) - 48.4
50. Florida State Seminoles (2-3) - 50.4
51. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-3) - 50.6
52. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2) - 51.7
53. USC Trojans (4-1) - 52.0
54. FIU Golden Panthers (4-2) - 52.4
55. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2) - 53.4
56. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (5-1) - 54.0
57. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3) - 59.8
(tie) Utah State Aggies (2-3) - 59.8
59. Maryland Terrapins (2-3) - 60.2
60. BYU Cougars (4-2) - 60.6
61. Hawaii Warriors (3-2) - 61.2
62. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-3) - 63.2
63. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-3) - 63.9
64. Washington State Cougars (3-2) - 65.1
65. Purdue Boilermakers (3-2) - 66.7
66. Navy Midshipmen (2-3) - 67.9
67. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-2) - 68.2
68. Syracuse Orange (4-2) - 68.5
(tie) UCLA Bruins (3-3) - 68.5
70. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-3) - 69.0
71. Virginia Cavaliers (3-2) - 70.1
72. Utah Utes (2-3) - 70.4
73. NC State Wolfpack (3-3) - 71.5
74. California Golden Bears (3-2) - 71.6
75. Northwestern Wildcats (2-3) - 72.7
76. Louisville Cardinals (2-3) - 75.5
77. Connecticut Huskies (2-4) - 77.0
78. Bowling Green Falcons (3-3) - 78.6
79. Air Force Falcons (3-2) - 79.6
80. Kansas Jayhawks (2-3) - 80.3
81. Ball State Cardinals (3-3) - 80.4
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (2-4) - 80.4
83. Iowa State Cyclones (3-2) - 83.4
84. San Jose State Spartans (2-4) - 84.5
85. Duke Blue Devils (3-2) - 85.2
86. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-4) - 86.4
87. Rice Owls (2-3) - 86.6
88. UTEP Miners (2-3) - 87.6
89. Colorado State Rams (3-2) - 88.5
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-3) - 88.5
91. Wyoming Cowboys (3-2) - 90.6
92. Troy Trojans (2-3) - 91.3
93. Colorado Buffaloes (1-5) - 94.0
94. Kentucky Wildcats (2-4) - 95.0
95. Buffalo Bulls (2-4) - 96.2
96. Indiana Hoosiers (1-5) - 96.3
97. Army Black Knights (2-4) - 97.0
(tie) New Mexico State Aggies (2-3) - 97.0
99. Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-3) - 97.6
100. ECU Pirates (1-4) - 99.2
101. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-4) - 99.8
102. North Texas Mean Green (2-4) - 100.4
103. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-4) - 102.5
104. Boston College Eagles (1-5) - 103.7
105. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4) - 103.9
106. Miami University RedHawks (1-4) - 105.7
107. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-4) - 107.9
108. UNLV Rebels (1-4) - 108.4
109. Arizona Wildcats (1-5) - 109.2
110. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-5) - 110.2
111. Akron Zips (1-5) - 110.4
112. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-5) - 111.1
113. Tulane Green Wave (2-4) - 111.7
114. Idaho Vandals (1-5) - 113.0
115. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-5) - 115.5
116. Oregon State Beavers (1-4) - 115.9
117. Memphis Tigers (1-5) - 116.1
118. UAB Blazers (0-5) - 116.8
119. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-4) - 119.2
120. New Mexico Lobos (0-5) - 119.6

Week 5 - 2011 College Football Rankings

The parity index is a little higher this year. As a result, even after week 5, things are a little less settled than they have been in the past. Except for Alabama. Alabama, at least for now, has a solid hold on the top ranking in our analysis, and their solid victory over Florida only helped strengthen that position. Our analysis is a little less fickle than the voters are, by the way. An Auburn team that had dropped out of the Top 25, with a single 16-13 victory over a pretty good South Carolina team jumped clear up to #15 in the AP poll. We still have the Tigers down at #39. It is, after all, just one game, and the Tigers just haven't shown enough, in our opinion, after barely escaping with victories against a Utah State team that is now 1-3 and ranked #76 in our analysis and against a Mississippi State team that is now 2-3 and ranked #72. Granted, this is Auburn's most impressive game of the season so far, but after all, our rankings are based on the entire season's performance - not a single game.

Here are our rankings after five weeks of the 2011 season:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) - 1.1
2. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) - 2.5
3. Michigan Wolverines (5-0) - 2.9
4. LSU Tigers (5-0) - 3.6
5. Boise State Broncos (4-0) - 5.3
6. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) - 5.8
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) - 7.8
8. Clemson Tigers (5-0) - 8.4
9. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) - 9.1
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) - 9.6
11. Texas Longhorns (4-0) - 10.6
12. Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) - 13.1
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2) - 13.4
14. Florida Gators (4-1) - 13.5
15. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0) - 16.4
16. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1) - 17.5
17. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) - 18.3
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1) - 18.4
19. Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 18.8
20. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1) - 20.0
21. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) - 22.2
22. South Florida Bulls (4-1) - 23.8
23. North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1) - 24.4
24. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1) - 26.6
(tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) - 26.6
26. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-2) - 27.2
27. TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) - 27.3
28. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) - 29.1
29. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0) - 29.6
30. Baylor Bears (3-1) - 29.8
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1) - 31.2
32. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) - 31.7
33. Ohio Bobcats (4-1) - 32.7
34. Georgia Bulldogs (3-2) - 33.2
35. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 33.8
36. Houston Cougars (5-0) - 34.4
37. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) - 35.1
38. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 36.6
39. Auburn Tigers (4-1) - 38.0
40. Western Michigan Broncos (3-2) - 38.8
41. Washington Huskies (4-1) - 39.0
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-1) - 41.4
43. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 42.5
44. Miami Hurricanes (2-2) - 44.2
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1) - 44.2
46. Temple Owls (3-2) - 47.4
47. Missouri Tigers (2-2) - 48.0
48. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-2) - 49.3
49. SMU Mustangs (4-1) - 51.1
50. Toledo Rockets (2-3) - 51.2
51. USC Trojans (4-1) - 51.4
52. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 51.7
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-1) - 51.7
54. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-1) - 52.6
(tie) UCF Knights (2-2) - 52.6
56. California Golden Bears (3-1) - 56.5
57. FIU Golden Panthers (3-2) - 57.7
58. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-1) - 58.4
59. Hawaii Warriors (3-2) - 59.0
60. Utah Utes (2-2) - 62.7
61. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (4-1) - 63.0
62. Northwestern Wildcats (2-2) - 63.8
63. Air Force Falcons (3-1) - 64.6
64. Bowling Green Falcons (3-2) - 66.5
(tie) Iowa State Cyclones (3-1) - 66.5
66. BYU Cougars (3-2) - 66.8
67. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) - 67.0
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (2-2) - 67.0
69. Connecticut Huskies (2-3) - 68.6
70. Ball State Cardinals (3-2) - 68.9
71. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-3) - 69.1
72. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-3) - 70.4
73. Wyoming Cowboys (3-1) - 72.7
74. Virginia Cavaliers (3-2) - 74.2
75. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-3) - 76.3
76. Utah State Aggies (1-3) - 76.5
77. Louisville Cardinals (2-2) - 77.6
78. Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) - 77.9
79. Syracuse Orange (3-2) - 78.7
80. UCLA Bruins (2-3) - 79.0
81. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-3) - 81.7
82. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-3) - 83.0
83. San Jose State Spartans (2-3) - 84.2
84. NC State Wolfpack (2-3) - 84.3
85. Purdue Boilermakers (2-2) - 86.1
86. Troy Trojans (2-2) - 86.4
87. Duke Blue Devils (3-2) - 87.1
88. UTEP Miners (2-3) - 88.5
89. Army Black Knights (2-3) - 89.2
90. Ole Miss Rebels (2-3) - 89.6
91. Colorado Buffaloes (1-4) - 90.9
92. Colorado State Rams (3-2) - 91.2
93. Kentucky Wildcats (2-3) - 91.7
94. Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-2) - 93.5
(tie) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-3) - 93.5
96. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3) - 94.4
97. ECU Pirates (1-3) - 95.5
98. Indiana Hoosiers (1-4) - 95.9
99. Arizona Wildcats (1-4) - 97.5
100. New Mexico State Aggies (2-3) - 98.0
101. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-4) - 98.9
102. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-3) - 102.6
103. UNLV Rebels (1-3) - 103.3
104. Rice Owls (1-3) - 104.0
105. Boston College Eagles (1-4) - 104.2
106. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-4) - 104.4
107. Buffalo Bulls (1-4) - 105.7
108. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-4) - 106.6
109. Idaho Vandals (1-4) - 110.6
110. Akron Zips (1-4) - 111.2
111. North Texas Mean Green (1-4) - 111.5
112. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-3) - 111.8
113. Miami University RedHawks (0-4) - 112.3
114. Tulane Green Wave (2-3) - 112.5
115. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-4) - 113.6
116. Memphis Tigers (1-4) - 114.2
117. UAB Blazers (0-4) - 116.3
118. New Mexico Lobos (0-5) - 118.2
119. Oregon State Beavers (0-4) - 119.7
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0-4) - 120.2

Week 4 - 2011 College Football Rankings

Four weeks in. We now have enough data to begin posting preliminary rankings for the 120 FBS schools based on their performance so far. The rankings do not really start to settle in until the fifth week, so there may be some big changes in the rankings in the next couple of weeks. But at least you can see how your team has performed so far this year in comparison with all of the other FBS schools.

It is interesting to notice that in the AP rankings, LSU moved to #1 on the strength of its road victory over West Virginia. While this is impressive, and we do have LSU highly ranked, our analysis does show that another team has actually proved more in the early-going this season. Alabama is our current #1, based on the strength of its large margin of victory, especially over Penn State and Arkansas who are both having successful seasons thus far, except for their losses to Alabama of course. Alabama is currently ranked #3 in both the AP and US Today polls. Our analysis puts LSU #3, behind both Alabama and Michigan.

Here are our complete rankings for this week:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) - 1.2
2. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) - 2.8
3. LSU Tigers (4-0) - 3.1
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) - 4.4
5. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) - 4.5
6. Florida Gators (4-0) - 6.2
7. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 7.1
8. Boise State Broncos (3-0) - 8.5
9. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) - 8.8
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0) - 9.7
11. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) - 10.2
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-0) - 13.2
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) - 14.2
14. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) - 15.2
15. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) - 16.8
16. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) - 17.3
17. Texas Longhorns (3-0) - 18.0
18. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) - 18.2
19. Baylor Bears (3-0) - 19.1
20. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1) - 20.0
21. Clemson Tigers (4-0) - 21.2
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) - 21.4
(tie) Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 21.4
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-2) - 22.1
25. Temple Owls (3-1) - 22.9
26. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1) - 26.0
27. Houston Cougars (4-0) - 26.6
28. Ohio Bobcats (3-1) - 27.8
29. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 31.5
30. FIU Golden Panthers (3-1) - 32.1
31. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) - 32.6
32. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-1) - 34.3
33. Navy Midshipmen (2-1) - 34.4
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) - 34.4
35. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 34.8
36. Utah Utes (2-1) - 35.9
37. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) - 37.2
38. Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) - 38.0
39. Bowling Green Falcons (3-1) - 39.5
40. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1) - 40.4
41. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1) - 41.0
42. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) - 42.9
43. USC Trojans (3-1) - 44.1
44. Georgia Bulldogs (2-2) - 44.4
45. UCF Knights (2-2) - 45.4
46. Auburn Tigers (3-1) - 47.2
47. Missouri Tigers (2-2) - 47.6
48. Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) - 47.9
49. Western Michigan Broncos (2-2) - 49.1
50. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) - 50.2
51. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1) - 50.3
52. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 50.7
53. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-1) - 54.3
54. Connecticut Huskies (2-2) - 54.5
55. Miami Hurricanes (1-2) - 54.6
56. California Golden Bears (3-1) - 54.8
57. Washington Huskies (3-1) - 56.7
58. Louisville Cardinals (2-1) - 56.8
59. SMU Mustangs (3-1) - 59.0
60. Washington State Cougars (2-1) - 59.1
61. Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2) - 59.9
62. Ball State Cardinals (3-1) - 60.1
63. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) - 61.4
64. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2) - 62.5
65. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-1) - 64.3
66. Wyoming Cowboys (3-1) - 64.5
67. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-2) - 65.1
68. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-1) - 70.1
69. Kansas Jayhawks (2-1) - 70.8
70. Northwestern Wildcats (2-1) - 71.4
71. Utah State Aggies (1-2) - 72.2
72. BYU Cougars (2-2) - 72.8
73. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1) - 73.1
74. Virginia Cavaliers (2-2) - 75.3
75. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-2) - 75.9
76. Hawaii Warriors (2-2) - 76.2
77. UCLA Bruins (2-2) - 76.7
78. Air Force Falcons (2-1) - 77.5
79. Maryland Terrapins (1-2) - 78.0
80. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-2) - 78.3
81. ECU Pirates (1-2) - 81.2
82. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-3) - 82.5
83. Toledo Rockets (1-3) - 83.0
84. Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) - 83.6
85. Colorado State Rams (3-1) - 83.9
86. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 84.4
87. NC State Wolfpack (2-2) - 88.7
88. UTEP Miners (2-2) - 89.5
89. Syracuse Orange (3-1) - 89.7
90. Rice Owls (1-2) - 90.1
91. Colorado Buffaloes (1-3) - 90.2
92. San Jose State Spartans (1-3) - 92.0
93. Troy Trojans (1-2) - 92.3
94. Indiana Hoosiers (1-3) - 92.4
95. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0-3) - 94.7
96. Duke Blue Devils (2-2) - 97.5
97. Army Black Knights (1-3) - 97.7
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (1-3) - 97.7
99. Arizona Wildcats (1-3) - 98.9
(tie) Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-2) - 98.9
101. Buffalo Bulls (1-3) - 99.5
102. North Texas Mean Green (1-3) - 102.0
103. New Mexico State Aggies (1-3) - 102.3
104. Miami University RedHawks (0-3) - 103.6
105. Boston College Eagles (1-3) - 103.8
106. UNLV Rebels (1-3) - 104.9
107. Ole Miss Rebels (1-3) - 107.2
108. Tulane Green Wave (2-2) - 108.0
109. Akron Zips (1-3) - 108.3
110. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-3) - 108.5
111. Idaho Vandals (1-3) - 110.2
112. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-3) - 111.4
113. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-3) - 112.3
114. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) - 113.0
115. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-3) - 113.4
116. Memphis Tigers (1-3) - 114.1
117. UAB Blazers (0-3) - 116.3
118. New Mexico Lobos (0-4) - 118.0
119. Oregon State Beavers (0-3) - 119.7
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0-3) - 120.4

College Football Conference Realignment - A final outside-the-box suggestion

One of the strangest things about the latest rounds of conference realignment has been that geography, or rather the distance that a team would have to travel to play its games, has not seemed to matter in the decision making process. So much TV money seems to be assumed to be available for expanding the footprint of a conference, that teams like Oklahoma are considering playing in the PAC 10, I mean 12, I mean ?? even though that could very well mean several trips to the Mountain and Pacific time zones. So if geography matters so little, why not throw the whole thing out and start all over, forming a single conference of all of the best football teams, regardless of where they are located?

That kind of thinking, though it probably could never really happen, is behind our final proposal. This proposal guarantees games every week between the most powerful schools in the country, while giving the possibility for other schools to improve themselves and work their way up into the elite ranks simply by consistently winning.

Here is what we propose: Since the top division of football seems so determined to divide itself into even smaller divisions, and since tiers of conferences already seem to exist, we suggest going all the way and recognizing the different tiers. Take the top 16 programs in the country and form the Tier 1 conference. Take the next 16 and form Tier 2, etc. Re-rank the programs each year - our annual program ranking system seems ideal for such a task since it balances recent success with history and tradition - and reconfigure the conferences based on the new rankings. If one school cannot win consistently at a particular tier, they will eventually drop out of that tier into a lower tiered conference. If a school wins consistently for several years, they will move up to a higher tier.

(Incidentally, this could also be applied with the system we proposed in our last blog - only teams move in and out of the "Top 64" and conferences would be reconfigured to maintain a balance between the four conferences, keeping in mind issues of geography as well - see our previous post.)

If this process were followed this year, for example, this is how the conferences would look. (We have used geography to determine proposed divisions within each conference, helping to keep some of the travel costs down where possible.)

Tier 1 Conference

South
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
LSU Tigers
Miami Hurricanes
Tennessee Volunteers

North
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Penn State Nittany Lions
Texas Longhorns
USC Trojans

Tier 2 Conference

West
Arizona State Sun Devils
Boise State Broncos
BYU Cougars
Oregon Ducks
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCLA Bruins
Washington Huskies

East
Arkansas Razorbacks
Boston College Eagles
Clemson Tigers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Michigan State Spartans
Virginia Tech Hokies
West Virginia Mountaineers
Wisconsin Badgers

Tier 3 Conference

West
Arizona Wildcats
California Golden Bears
Colorado Buffaloes
Iowa Hawkeyes
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Stanford Cardinal
Utah Utes

East
North Carolina Tar Heels
Ole Miss Rebels
Pittsburgh Panthers
Purdue Boilermakers
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Florida Bulls
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Syracuse Orange

Tier 4 Conference

West
Air Force Falcons
Fresno State Bulldogs
Hawaii Warriors
Houston Cougars
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oregon State Beavers
San Diego State Aztecs
TCU Horned Frogs

East
Illinois Fighting Illini
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Maryland Terrapins
Miami University RedHawks
Mississippi State Bulldogs
NC State Wolfpack
Virginia Cavaliers

Tier 5 Conference

West
Baylor Bears
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
Nevada Wolf Pack
Troy Trojans
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Washington State Cougars
Wyoming Cowboys

East
Bowling Green Falcons
Cincinnati Bearcats
Connecticut Huskies
ECU Pirates
Navy Midshipmen
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Toledo Rockets
UCF Knights

Tier 6 Conference

West
Colorado State Rams
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa State Cyclones
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
New Mexico Lobos
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northwestern Wildcats
SMU Mustangs

East
Army Black Knights
Central Michigan Chippewas
Duke Blue Devils
Marshall Thundering Herd
Memphis Tigers
Vanderbilt Commodores
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Western Michigan Broncos

Tier 7 Conference

West
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
North Texas Mean Green
Rice Owls
San Jose State Spartans
Tulane Green Wave
UNLV Rebels
Utah State Aggies
UTEP Miners

East
Akron Zips
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Ball State Cardinals
Florida Atlantic Owls
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Ohio Bobcats
Temple Owls
UAB Blazers

Tier 8 Conference (8 members only)

Buffalo Bulls
Eastern Michigan Eagles
FIU Golden Panthers
Idaho Vandals
Kent State Golden Flashes
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
New Mexico State Aggies
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Another way to arrange this is to divide the 120 FBS teams into two 60-team East and West regions, then form 8-team divisions based on the rankings so that each conference is represented by an equal number of truly East and West teams (which will naturally reduce travel, since you would either stay East or West when competing within your division).

Note that because tradition and a history of winning is also considered in the program rankings, the conferences would be relatively stable in that there would not be huge changes from year to year. Most teams move less than five spots, meaning that even if a team has a meteoric rise, it would take three or four consistent years of winning to move up a couple of tiers. Teams are not penalized for years they did not participate at all in the top division of football competition, so new schools would have an opportunity to move up quickly by having some early success. (Boise State is an example of this.)

Our favorite setup is still the balanced conference model, because it lends itself well to a playoff at the end of the year and gives 64 teams a chance to win the national championship on the field (which is much more than the number that realistically have a chance under today's system). However, we'd be very interested in hearing your thoughts on each of these proposed alignments.

Four Superconferences in Football - Some Suggestions, Part 2

Last year, we suggested a total revamping of the conference structure to create four equally strong superconferences based on historical success of FBS teams. At the time, that proposal was based on our analysis of the previous forty years of college football games. We have now completed the entire 99 years of the modern football era, and with this additional information, we are ready to post an updated version of our four superconference proposal based on our program rankings using all 99 years of data.

We are not under the mistaken impression that this could ever be implemented. It's too radical a change to be accepted widely enough among the nation's college presidents to cause this to happen. But, in a "perfect world," we feel the alignment we are proposing is based on a good balance between considerations of geography, recent success and football tradition, and that this conference alignment would be the best compromise for creating a conference system that could easily and successfully lead into a four or eight team playoff for a national championship that was decided on the field.

Here is our proposed conference structure (the conference names are arbitrary and somewhat geography based, but we use them simply as a way of giving labels to differentiate between the conferences and their divisions):

Western Conference - North Division

Air Force Falcons
Boise State Broncos
California Golden Bears
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
San Diego State Aztecs
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies

Western Conference - South Division
 
Arizona Wildcats
Fresno State Bulldogs
Hawaii Warriors
LSU Tigers
Oregon Ducks
Stanford Cardinal
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans

Midwestern Conference - North Division
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
BYU Cougars
Colorado Buffaloes
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oregon State Beavers

Midwestern Conference - South Division
 
Arizona State Sun Devils
Auburn Tigers
Houston Cougars
Missouri Tigers
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies

Mideastern Conference - North Division
 
Illinois Fighting Illini
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers

Mideastern Conference - South Division
 
Alabama Crimson Tide
Louisville Cardinals
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
West Virginia Mountaineers

Eastern Conference - North Division
 
Boston College Eagles
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Maryland Terrapins
Miami University RedHawks
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Virginia Tech Hokies

Eastern Conference - South Division
 
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Florida Bulls
Virginia Cavaliers

This proposal, of course, is not perfect. It is merely a starting point, which values a balance between the divisions and conferences formed. In its current form, the "easiest" conference (but not by much) is the Eastern Conference. The easiest division is the North Division within that conference. The "hardest" conference is Mideastern Conference, although the hardest division is actually the North Division of the Western Conference.
 
Several teams do end up having to travel quite a bit under this proposal. LSU, particularly, seems to be assigned to a conference outside its own region, and there are a couple of alternatives that might be used to reduce the amount of travel the Tigers face each year. The first would be to swap LSU and Arizona State. This sacrifices some of the relative equality between conferences - instantly making the Midwestern Conference and South Division in that conference the toughest conference and division, while the Western Conference would become the easiest (as would the South Division in that conference). Other candidates for swapping with LSU that maintain the balance between conferences a little better but don't solve all of the resulting travelling concerns include Boise State or Texas A&M. Another option is swapping San Diego State and Hawaii within the Western Conference. This has the virtue of basically maintaining the balance between conferences, but it does not solve all of LSU's travel problems. It does mean the Tigers would not need to travel all the way to Hawaii every other year (but Michigan and Nebraska would) spreading out the travel challenges a little bit.
 
Under this proposal, several teams, including teams currently in BCS automatic qualifying conferences, are left out of the field of 64. These teams would, under our proposal, be allowed to play their way into the conference system as the conference structures would be adjusted each year based on the updated program rankings as calculated at the end of each year. Since the program rankings are based on historical performance, with greater weight given to recent success, there would not be major changes in the structure from year to year. Most teams move less than 5 spots in the program rankings each year. However, it would allow programs to build a tradition of success and supplant teams who over a series of years are consistently bad. We will discuss this in more detail in a later posting, when we discuss yet another proposal for how to realign conferences in a way that allows schools to play their way into the national spotlight.
 
The last five teams included in the field of 64 in this year's calculations are: the Illinois Fighting Illini, the Oregon State Beavers, the San Diego State Aztecs, the Miami University RedHawks and the Hawaii Warriors. Two of these teams, San Diego State and Hawaii, would have just barely played their way into the field of 64 after last year's successful seasons. All five would be under some pressure to have successful seasons to maintain their spots in the field of 64.
 
The first five teams not included in our field of 64 are: the Kansas State Wildcats, the Washington State Cougars, the Kansas Jayhawks, the ECU Pirates and the Navy Midshipmen. Among these teams, both Washington State and Kansas would have been in the field of 64 last year, but would have fallen out after not having successful enough seasons in 2010 to remain in the field. All five are in a position to possibly be added to the field in 2012 with successful 2011 campaigns.
 
Teams not currently in a conference with a BCS automatic qualifying bid that are included in our 2011 field of 64 include: Notre Dame (although they actually do have an automatic qualifying bid as an independent), Boise State, BYU, Southern Miss, Air Force, TCU (which will be joining the Big East next season), Fresno State, Houston, San Diego State, Miami University (Ohio) and Hawaii.
 
Teams currently in a BCS auto bid conference that are not included in our 2011 field of 64 include: Kansas State, Washington State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Baylor, Connecticut, Rutgers, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Iowa State, Duke, Indiana, and Vanderbilt.

Four Superconferences in College Football - Some Suggestions, Part 1

Even though the games have started for the 2011 College Football season, there is a lot of talk about continued conference realignment going on, especially around the Big 12 (which is already down to ten teams). Our own take on the matter is that because so much of this is being played out in the press, whether or not Texas A&M is finally able to join the SEC, we think the bulk of the Big 12 will remain intact. We see a lot of the public discussion as merely posturing within the conference for teams like Oklahoma to try and gain more power and a bigger piece of the financial pie in what has already shown to be an historically unbalanced league. If the proposed PAC 16 were really such a great idea, it would already have happened, in our opinion. Nevertheless, it is because of the unbalanced sharing of power and revenue in the Big 12 that the league has a reputation of being unstable. Any team invited to join that conference would be wise to be wary and to use any leverage that they have to get as good a position within the conference as possible - even as a new entry.

We especially like BYU's position in that regard, since independence gives them both the freedom to make a move whenever they want and the leverage to be able to hold out for a better position within the conference - at least for being able to keep the best parts of the advantages they gained through the move to indepence - the ESPN contract and BYUtv programming. BYU seems to be in a position where the Big 12 might need BYU as much or even more than BYU needs the Big 12, since the addition of BYU can help to stabilize the league and lessen the impact of the departure of Texas A&M.

Right now, there are too many scenarios being talked about to provide a good analysis of how all this shifting might impact our conference power rankings. Instead, we intend to spend the next few posts focusing on another topic of discussion that keeps getting bounced around - the inevitability of the formation of four 16-team superconferences (whether the PAC 16 becomes the first of these or not). We don't share the sentiment that such conferences are inevitable. Having observed the formation and downfall of various large conferences over the years (remember the 16-team WAC?), it does seem that there are a number of drawbacks to this scenario which might keep such actions from happening. And, in fact, this is one reason why we don't believe the PAC 12 will actually take on four new teams in the very near future.

The fact is that in every conference, there are a few teams that are the money makers for the conference and the rest of the teams in the conference rely on those power teams, essentially hitching a ride. This fact has become apparent in the Big 12, where Texas and Oklahoma have taken advantage of their position as money teams in the conference to gain a bigger share of the pie, and in the Mountain West Conference, where BYU got fed up with being the primary money team without being allowed to even rebroadcast (on tape delay!) its games on its own television network and left for independence.

The way decisions are made in a conference can have a huge impact on the relationships within that conference. Most conferences lean toward an equitable sharing of income, often leading to dissatisfaction for the money teams in that conference. The Big 12's decision-making process seems to have allowed greater freedom for the money teams, leaving the middle-tier teams frustrated with the inequity and eager to jump into another conference with a more equitable sharing plan in place if the opportunity arises. The problem with 16-team conferences is that it is hard to imagine an arrangement where this doesn't mean a smaller ratio of money teams to other teams within a conference. There just aren't that many teams with a large enough national following to make a split between 16 teams better than a split between 12 teams. To get to 16 from 12, you might add one more money team to your conference. But you're also adding three also-rans (financially speaking).

The argument against this problem is that this is the reason there will only be four conferences. Fewer money teams are needed with four power conferences than with six. Another point is that this is about increasing the "footprint" of the conference - bringing in televisions. The reason increasing the footprint of a conference would increase the income of a conference (whether the team brought in was a money team or not) is that it apparently doesn't matter how many people are actually watching the games in that area to a conference network. Because of how cable and satellite television billing works, you might be paying for a conference network subscription, even if you don't want it. If it's offered and you purchase the tier that the subscription is found on (even to watch something else), the conference network will get its money. Advertising dollars (which are influenced by actual viewship ratings) have become secondary.

Financially, there is some merit to this model, but we still have to wonder if this is enough to overcome the problems that also result from such large conferences. Again, if 16-team conferences are so great, the idea has been around long enough, you would think it would have happened already.

That being said, and putting aside finances and the idea of money teams for the moment, we ask this question: Strictly in terms of football performance, which teams ought to be included or excluded in a four-conference 64-team system to get the best arrangement (again, in terms of football)? We've tackled this before. At the time, our suggestions were based on 40 years of analysis. Now that we've completed 99 years of analysis, we intend to update our suggestion based on the complete program rankings in the coming days.

First, however, we want to explore the idea that these four superconferences, if they happen, will probably evolve from the existing six power conferences in some way. Of course, this leaves out some worthy programs that do not belong to power conferences, and we would like to think that somehow, along the way, worthy teams that don't belong to one of the six power conferences will find their way into the mix. Of course, there are already more than 64 teams among the six conferences with an automatic BCS bid (67 to be exact, counting TCU which joins the Big East next year). So even if these other programs are not let in, some teams that are already in will be left out. Unfortunately, we think the left out teams will actually be the bottom feeders in the two conferences that will disappear, because they simply won't be invited into one of the other four conferences, leaving some even worse teams in simply because they happened to belong to the right league and not because of their football worthiness. But if the decision were actually based on football worthiness, which five teams currently not belonging to one of these conferences would be most worthy of an invitation to join? And which eight teams from the power conferences (remember, we have to get rid of three just to reach 64) should be kicked out, even though they already belong to the club?

Here's our list, based on the most recent program power ratings calculated from 99 years of historical data (and of course giving greater weight to recent success):

Top Five teams to add to the field of 64:

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (of course - they won't be left out unless they are determined to remain independent)
2. Boise State Broncos
3. BYU Cougars
4. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
5. Air Force Falcons

Note that three of these teams (Notre Dame, BYU and Air Force) have the national profile for a "money team". It seems to us that, financially speaking, these three teams MUST be included among the list of 64 to maximize income that is to be spread out among 16 teams in a conference. (Now the question is if the university presidents who will make the decisions agree.)

Top Eight teams to drop from the field of 64:

1. Vanderbilt Commodores
2. Indiana Hoosiers
3. Duke Blue Devils
4. Iowa State Cyclones
5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
8. Connecticut Huskies



That Vanderbilt, Indiana and Northwestern would not be included in the final field of 64 seems unlikely, since it is almost a sure thing that the SEC and Big 10 will be among the conferences expanding to 16 teams, not among the conferences that disappear. Iowa State is the only team in this list from the Big 12, yet that seems to be the conference most likely to disband. (Baylor would have been #9 on this list.)