The SEC has positioned itself well above the other conferences early in 2018. In our Week 5 analysis, the top four teams all come from the SEC, meaning five weeks in, they all have had better success than any other teams in the country. That would make quite a college football playoff. Of course, there is a lot of football left to go. Here are the rankings according to our analysis through week five:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) - 1.5
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) - 2.6
3. LSU Tigers (5-0) - 2.8
4. Kentucky Wildcats (5-0) - 4.2
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) - 5.6
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) - 6.6
7. Clemson Tigers (5-0) - 6.8
8. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) - 7.4
9. UCF Knights (4-0) - 9.0
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) - 10.1
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1) - 10.3
12. NC State Wolfpack (4-0) - 13.5
13. Washington Huskies (4-1) - 14.2
14. Syracuse Orange (4-1) - 14.8
15. Miami Hurricanes (4-1) - 16.0
16. Auburn Tigers (4-1) - 16.9
17. Michigan Wolverines (4-1) - 17.4
18. Oregon Ducks (4-1) - 20.4
19. Duke Blue Devils (4-1) - 21.1
20. Florida Gators (4-1) - 21.3
21. Army Black Knights (3-2) - 22.0
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) - 22.3
23. North Texas Mean Green (4-1) - 22.6
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) - 24.1
25. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 25.9
26. Stanford Cardinal (4-1) - 26.0
27. Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-1) - 27.1
28. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) - 27.2
29. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2) - 29.4
30. Colorado Buffaloes (4-0) - 30.1
31. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) - 30.4
32. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2) - 30.7
33. Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1) - 31.2
34. Boise State Broncos (3-1) - 33.9
35. Texas Longhorns (4-1) - 34.0
36. Washington State Cougars (4-1) - 36.1
37. Indiana Hoosiers (4-1) - 36.4
38. Ole Miss Rebels (3-2) - 39.3
39. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 40.6
40. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 40.8
41. Virginia Cavaliers (3-2) - 43.0
42. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 43.4
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 43.7
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2) - 43.8
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.1
46. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.6
47. Hawaii Warriors (5-1) - 45.8
48. Boston College Eagles (4-1) - 47.5
49. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-2) - 47.6
50. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 48.7
51. Buffalo Bulls (4-1) - 50.3
52. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-1) - 51.0
53. Baylor Bears (3-2) - 51.7
54. Georgia Southern Eagles (3-1) - 52.6
55. USC Trojans (3-2) - 54.7
56. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) - 55.5
57. Troy Trojans (4-1) - 57.3
58. TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) - 57.5
59. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2) - 57.9
60. Purdue Boilermakers (2-3) - 59.8
61. FIU Golden Panthers (3-2) - 61.0
62. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-2) - 62.2
63. BYU Cougars (3-2) - 62.3
64. Memphis Tigers (3-2) - 65.4
65. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) - 66.3
(tie) Liberty Flames (2-2) - 66.3
67. Utah Utes (2-2) - 67.2
68. Western Michigan Broncos (3-2) - 67.8
69. Iowa State Cyclones (1-3) - 69.5
70. UAB Blazers (3-1) - 70.6
71. California Golden Bears (3-1) - 70.9
72. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 71.8
73. Tulane Green Wave (2-3) - 71.9
74. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-2) - 73.2
75. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-3) - 76.0
76. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
77. Toledo Rockets (2-2) - 79.5
78. Northwestern Wildcats (1-3) - 79.7
79. Ohio Bobcats (2-2) - 80.1
80. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-3) - 81.0
81. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-1) - 81.5
82. Arizona Wildcats (2-3) - 81.6
83. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-2) - 82.4
84. New Mexico Lobos (2-2) - 82.6
85. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 83.2
86. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 84.6
87. Temple Owls (2-3) - 85.4
88. Florida State Seminoles (3-2) - 86.8
89. Kansas State Wildcats (2-3) - 89.3
90. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-3) - 90.9
91. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3) - 91.9
92. UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 92.3
93. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-4) - 93.4
94. Air Force Falcons (1-3) - 94.6
95. Tennessee Volunteers (2-3) - 95.2
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2) - 97.8
97. Kansas Jayhawks (2-3) - 99.0
98. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-2) - 99.3
99. Ball State Cardinals (2-3) - 100.1
(tie) ECU Pirates (2-2) - 100.1
101. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-3) - 101.6
102. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-4) - 101.7
103. SMU Mustangs (2-3) - 102.3
104. Northern Illinois Huskies (2-3) - 102.5
105. Miami University RedHawks (1-4) - 103.3
106. Louisville Cardinals (2-3) - 104.0
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 106.9
108. South Alabama Jaguars (1-4) - 107.8
109. Georgia State Panthers (2-3) - 109.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-4) - 110.5
111. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-4) - 110.8
112. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-3) - 111.2
113. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-4) - 111.6
114. Wyoming Cowboys (2-3) - 112.3
115. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-4) - 114.3
116. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-3) - 115.0
117. Charlotte 49ers (2-3) - 115.6
118. UCLA Bruins (0-4) - 117.6
119. Oregon State Beavers (1-4) - 118.0
120. UTSA Roadrunners (2-3) - 119.2
121. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-4) - 121.5
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-4) - 122.1
123. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 123.7
124. Rice Owls (1-4) - 124.0
125. San Jose State Spartans (0-4) - 125.1
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.9
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.2
128. Bowling Green Falcons (1-4) - 126.3
129. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-4) - 127.3
130. UTEP Miners (0-5) - 129.3
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Monday, September 24, 2018
2018 College Football Rankings - Week 4
Welcome to a new year of Baggaley NCAA Football Rankings. We're four weeks into the season, so we have enough data to begin to rank the teams with a reasonable measure of accuracy. Remember that these rankings are only a measure of what each team's performance has shown in the games they have played so far this season, and that the value of specific wins or losses is independent of the names on the teams, but only based on how those teams have performed in their other games. Unlike what happens with polls (especially those with preseason rankings), all teams begin the season in our analysis on exactly equal footing. What a team has done in any previous season has no bearing on the analysis for this year All that matters is the results (win or loss and final score) of the games that have been played this season.
As a result, there are teams who might be considered "better" teams who have not demonstrated such this season so far, which could be a result of the teams they have played in their schedule up to this point, and other teams who might not be generally considered as good as other teams who have actually had a great deal more success so far this season than other name teams. The result of the games - and the unbiased analysis that comes from those results - are what they are.
Here are our first rankings of the 2018 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) - 1.0
2. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) - 2.1
3. Duke Blue Devils (4-0) - 4.1
4. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) - 4.4
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) - 5.7
6. Clemson Tigers (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) - 7.2
9. LSU Tigers (4-0) - 8.4
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) - 10.8
11. Syracuse Orange (4-0) - 11.1
12. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) - 12.4
13. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 14.6
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) - 15.2
15. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) - 15.6
16. UCF Knights (3-0) - 15.8
17. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) - 17.3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) - 17.8
19. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) - 19.2
20. Buffalo Bulls (4-0) - 19.8
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) - 22.3
22. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) - 23.2
23. Baylor Bears (3-1) - 23.3
24. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) - 24.8
25. Auburn Tigers (3-1) - 26.0
26. Florida Gators (3-1) - 26.7
27. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) - 27.3
28. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) - 29.8
(tie) Texas Longhorns (3-1) - 29.8
30. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) - 31.9
31. Washington Huskies (3-1) - 33.2
32. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 33.3
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) - 33.6
34. Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 34.7
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) - 35.3
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-1) - 35.3
37. Army Black Knights (2-2) - 35.7
38. Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) - 37.0
39. Indiana Hoosiers (3-1) - 38.0
40. BYU Cougars (3-1) - 39.3
41. Hawaii Warriors (4-1) - 40.7
42. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 41.5
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 42.5
44. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) - 42.6
45. California Golden Bears (3-0) - 43.3
46. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 44.6
47. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.0
48. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.8
49. Memphis Tigers (3-1) - 46.6
50. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) - 49.2
51. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) - 50.1
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 50.9
53. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-1) - 53.2
54. Boise State Broncos (2-1) - 53.3
55. USC Trojans (2-2) - 55.4
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) - 55.4
57. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-2) - 58.4
58. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-1) - 59.1
59. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2) - 59.2
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1) - 60.8
61. Boston College Eagles (3-1) - 61.5
62. TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) - 62.1
63. New Mexico Lobos (2-1) - 63.0
64. Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) - 65.2
65. FIU Golden Panthers (2-2) - 65.4
66. Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) - 66.0
67. Toledo Rockets (2-1) - 66.8
68. Iowa State Cyclones (1-2) - 68.2
69. Arizona Wildcats (2-2) - 69.7
70. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 69.8
71. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-1) - 71.5
(tie) Utah Utes (2-1) - 71.5
73. Western Michigan Broncos (2-2) - 73.4
74. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 75.7
(tie) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-1) - 75.7
76. Temple Owls (2-2) - 76.8
77. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
78. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 78.6
79. Troy Trojans (3-1) - 79.2
80. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2) - 79.5
81. UAB Blazers (2-1) - 83.7
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-2) - 83.7
83. Liberty Flames (1-2) - 84.5
84. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1) - 84.6
85. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) - 84.9
86. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-3) - 85.4
87. Air Force Falcons (1-2) - 85.5
88. Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) - 88.2
89. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-2) - 89.1
90. Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) - 90.0
91. Ohio Bobcats (1-2) - 90.1
92. Tennessee Volunteers (2-2) - 90.9
(tie) UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 90.9
94. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-2) - 92.3
95. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) - 96.6
96. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-2) - 96.9
97. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-3) - 97.2
98. Louisville Cardinals (2-2) - 98.1
99. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 98.9
100. ECU Pirates (1-2) - 99.9
101. Tulane Green Wave (1-3) - 100.3
102. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) - 102.2
103. South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) - 104.6
104. Miami University RedHawks (1-3) - 104.9
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (2-2) - 104.9
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (2-2) - 104.9
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 107.4
108. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3) - 107.6
109. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) - 108.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-3) - 108.9
111. Charlotte 49ers (2-2) - 109.4
112. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-3) - 109.5
113. SMU Mustangs (1-3) - 111.7
114. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) - 112.8
115. Oregon State Beavers (1-3) - 113.4
116. UCLA Bruins (0-3) - 116.5
117. Ball State Cardinals (1-3) - 117.5
118. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-3) - 117.7
119. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) - 117.8
120. Rice Owls (1-3) - 118.9
121. UTSA Roadrunners (1-3) - 120.7
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-3) - 121.1
123. Bowling Green Falcons (1-3) - 122.9
124. Georgia State Panthers (1-3) - 123.9
125. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 124.2
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.4
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.4
128. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) - 127.6
129. San Jose State Spartans (0-3) - 128.5
130. UTEP Miners (0-4) - 129.4
As a result, there are teams who might be considered "better" teams who have not demonstrated such this season so far, which could be a result of the teams they have played in their schedule up to this point, and other teams who might not be generally considered as good as other teams who have actually had a great deal more success so far this season than other name teams. The result of the games - and the unbiased analysis that comes from those results - are what they are.
Here are our first rankings of the 2018 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) - 1.0
2. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) - 2.1
3. Duke Blue Devils (4-0) - 4.1
4. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) - 4.4
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) - 5.7
6. Clemson Tigers (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (4-0) - 7.2
(tie) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) - 7.2
9. LSU Tigers (4-0) - 8.4
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) - 10.8
11. Syracuse Orange (4-0) - 11.1
12. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) - 12.4
13. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) - 14.6
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) - 15.2
15. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) - 15.6
16. UCF Knights (3-0) - 15.8
17. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) - 17.3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) - 17.8
19. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) - 19.2
20. Buffalo Bulls (4-0) - 19.8
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) - 22.3
22. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) - 23.2
23. Baylor Bears (3-1) - 23.3
24. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) - 24.8
25. Auburn Tigers (3-1) - 26.0
26. Florida Gators (3-1) - 26.7
27. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) - 27.3
28. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) - 29.8
(tie) Texas Longhorns (3-1) - 29.8
30. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) - 31.9
31. Washington Huskies (3-1) - 33.2
32. Houston Cougars (3-1) - 33.3
33. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) - 33.6
34. Oregon Ducks (3-1) - 34.7
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) - 35.3
(tie) Washington State Cougars (3-1) - 35.3
37. Army Black Knights (2-2) - 35.7
38. Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) - 37.0
39. Indiana Hoosiers (3-1) - 38.0
40. BYU Cougars (3-1) - 39.3
41. Hawaii Warriors (4-1) - 40.7
42. South Florida Bulls (4-0) - 41.5
43. Maryland Terrapins (3-1) - 42.5
44. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) - 42.6
45. California Golden Bears (3-0) - 43.3
46. Missouri Tigers (3-1) - 44.6
47. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) - 45.0
48. Utah State Aggies (3-1) - 45.8
49. Memphis Tigers (3-1) - 46.6
50. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) - 49.2
51. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) - 50.1
52. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) - 50.9
53. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-1) - 53.2
54. Boise State Broncos (2-1) - 53.3
55. USC Trojans (2-2) - 55.4
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) - 55.4
57. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-2) - 58.4
58. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-1) - 59.1
59. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2) - 59.2
60. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1) - 60.8
61. Boston College Eagles (3-1) - 61.5
62. TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) - 62.1
63. New Mexico Lobos (2-1) - 63.0
64. Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) - 65.2
65. FIU Golden Panthers (2-2) - 65.4
66. Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) - 66.0
67. Toledo Rockets (2-1) - 66.8
68. Iowa State Cyclones (1-2) - 68.2
69. Arizona Wildcats (2-2) - 69.7
70. San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) - 69.8
71. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-1) - 71.5
(tie) Utah Utes (2-1) - 71.5
73. Western Michigan Broncos (2-2) - 73.4
74. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) - 75.7
(tie) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-1) - 75.7
76. Temple Owls (2-2) - 76.8
77. Akron Zips (2-1) - 77.7
78. Navy Midshipmen (2-2) - 78.6
79. Troy Trojans (3-1) - 79.2
80. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2) - 79.5
81. UAB Blazers (2-1) - 83.7
(tie) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-2) - 83.7
83. Liberty Flames (1-2) - 84.5
84. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1) - 84.6
85. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) - 84.9
86. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-3) - 85.4
87. Air Force Falcons (1-2) - 85.5
88. Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) - 88.2
89. Florida Atlantic Owls (2-2) - 89.1
90. Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) - 90.0
91. Ohio Bobcats (1-2) - 90.1
92. Tennessee Volunteers (2-2) - 90.9
(tie) UNLV Rebels (2-2) - 90.9
94. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-2) - 92.3
95. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) - 96.6
96. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-2) - 96.9
97. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-3) - 97.2
98. Louisville Cardinals (2-2) - 98.1
99. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) - 98.9
100. ECU Pirates (1-2) - 99.9
101. Tulane Green Wave (1-3) - 100.3
102. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) - 102.2
103. South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) - 104.6
104. Miami University RedHawks (1-3) - 104.9
(tie) Nevada Wolf Pack (2-2) - 104.9
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (2-2) - 104.9
107. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-3) - 107.4
108. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3) - 107.6
109. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) - 108.7
110. Massachusetts Minutemen (2-3) - 108.9
111. Charlotte 49ers (2-2) - 109.4
112. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-3) - 109.5
113. SMU Mustangs (1-3) - 111.7
114. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) - 112.8
115. Oregon State Beavers (1-3) - 113.4
116. UCLA Bruins (0-3) - 116.5
117. Ball State Cardinals (1-3) - 117.5
118. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-3) - 117.7
119. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) - 117.8
120. Rice Owls (1-3) - 118.9
121. UTSA Roadrunners (1-3) - 120.7
122. Connecticut Huskies (1-3) - 121.1
123. Bowling Green Falcons (1-3) - 122.9
124. Georgia State Panthers (1-3) - 123.9
125. Texas State Bobcats (1-3) - 124.2
126. New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) - 125.4
127. Colorado State Rams (1-4) - 126.4
128. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) - 127.6
129. San Jose State Spartans (0-3) - 128.5
130. UTEP Miners (0-4) - 129.4
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