16-team Playoff

Everyone writes an article about what their playoff would look like if there actually were a playoff... Not to be left out, here is ours. We have chosen a model where the conference champion from each conference gets an automatic berth - yes, we know that means that most likely the best 16 teams will not be represented under this system, but we feel that a conference championship ought to be worth something. The other slots in the tournament are filled by at-large teams based on their rankings with no limit to how many teams from a single conference may be represented. That being said, here are our sixteen teams listed in order of their ranking in our analysis:

1. Oregon (PAC10)
2. TCU (MWC)
3. Auburn (SEC)
4. Boise State (WAC)
5. Ohio State (Big 10)
6. Stanford (At Large)
7. Wisconsin (At Large)
8. Alabama (At Large)
9. Nevada (At Large)
10. Virginia Tech (ACC)
11. Oklahoma (Big 12)
12. Arkansas (At Large)
13. UCF (CUSA)
14. Connecticut (Big East)
15. Miami (OH) (MAC)
16. FIU (Sun Belt)

Bowl Season 2010 - Which Matchups Are Most Intriguing?

To be analytical about this year's bowl matchups, we do need to define exactly what we mean by "most intriguing" since technically a matchup could be intriguing to someone because of a particular storyline or because the names of the two schools' mascots rhyme or any other reason really... What we mean when we say intriguing is which games are most likely to result in a close game between two very good teams based on their resume of games during the regular season? Naturally, this probably means that the BCS championship game will usually come in #1 on the list (although our analysis shows that one of the teams actually shouldn't be in this game). But where do the other games rank? See below... These games are ranked from least intriguing (#35) to most intriguing (#1).

35. GoDaddy.Com Bowl - #99 Mid. Tennessee vs. #77 Miami (OH)
34. Independence Bowl - #23 Air Force vs. #73 Georgia Tech
33. New Mexico Bowl - #69 BYU vs. #87 UTEP
32. Little Caesars Bowl - #82 FIU vs. #68 Toledo
31. New Orleans Bowl - #72 Ohio vs. #81 Troy
30. Fight Hunger Bowl - #9 Nevada vs. #58 Boston College
29. Fiesta Bowl - #57 Connecticut vs. #11 Oklahoma
28. Military Bowl - #66 ECU vs. #40 Maryland
27. TicketCity Bowl - #70 Northwestern vs. #53 Texas Tech
26. Holiday Bowl - #15 Nebraska vs. #56 Washington
25. Meineke Bowl - #61 South Florida vs. #31 Clemson
24. Pinstripe Bowl - #43 Kansas State vs. #65 Syracuse
23. BBVA Compass Bowl - #30 Pittsburgh vs. #59 Kentucky
22. Armed Forces Bowl - #71 Army vs. #67 SMU
21. Music City Bowl - #46 North Carolina vs. #62 Tennessee
20. Humanitarian Bowl - #42 Northern Illinois vs. #60 Fresno State
19. Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - #48 Southern Miss vs. #54 Louisville
18. Texas Bowl - #38 Illinois vs. #49 Baylor
17. Gator Bowl - #27 Mississippi State vs. #45 Michigan
16. Outback Bowl - #34 Florida vs. #47 Penn State
15. Hawaii Bowl - #26 Hawaii vs. #41 Tulsa
14. Alamo Bowl - #14 Oklahoma State vs. #33 Arizona
13. Liberty Bowl - #39 Georgia vs. #32 UCF
12. Poinsettia Bowl - #36 Navy vs. #37 San Diego State
11. Sun Bowl - #24 Notre Dame vs. #29 Miami (FL)
10. Champs Sports Bowl - #22 West Virginia vs. #28 NC State
9. MAACO Las Vegas Bowl - #21 Utah vs. #4 Boise State
8. Insight Bowl - #13 Missouri vs. #24 Iowa
7. Capital One Bowl - #8 Alabama vs. #18 Michigan State
6. Chick-fil-A Bowl - #18 South Carolina vs. #20 Florida State
5. Cotton Bowl - #17 LSU vs. #16 Texas A&M
4. Sugar Bowl - #5 Ohio State vs. #12 Arkansas
3. Discover Orange Bowl - #6 Stanford vs. #10 Virginia Tech
2. Rose Bowl - #7 Wisconsin vs. #2 TCU
1. BCS Championship - #1 Oregon vs. #3 Auburn

End of Regular Season Rankings - 2010

With today's Army and Navy game in the books, the regular season is finished. Here's how the rankings appear heading into bowl season:

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) - 1.1
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) - 2.0
3. Auburn Tigers (13-0) - 3.5
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 3.6
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 5.2
6. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.8
7. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) - 7.0
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 8.7
9. Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1) - 9.4
10. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 10.9
11. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 11.0
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 12.1
13. Missouri Tigers (10-2) - 12.7
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) - 12.8
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) - 14.5
16. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3) - 16.5
17. LSU Tigers (10-2) - 17.0
18. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) - 17.8
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) - 17.8
20. Florida State Seminoles (9-4) - 19.9
21. Utah Utes (10-2) - 20.8
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 22.9
23. Air Force Falcons (8-4) - 23.8
24. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 25.0
(tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) - 25.0
26. Hawaii Warriors (10-3) - 26.7
27. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 27.1
28. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 27.3
29. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 29.3
30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 30.8
31. Clemson Tigers (6-6) - 32.2
32. UCF Knights (10-3) - 33.0
33. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 33.3
34. Florida Gators (6-5) - 34.0
35. USC Trojans (8-5) - 34.9
36. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) - 35.2
37. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 36.5
38. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 38.5
39. Georgia Bulldogs (6-5) - 39.5
40. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 40.1
41. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 40.7
42. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 41.9
43. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 42.3
(tie) Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 42.3
45. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 44.5
46. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 46.8
47. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 47.8
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4) - 48.7
49. Baylor Bears (7-5) - 49.9
50. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 51.4
51. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 52.3
52. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 52.4
53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 53.1
54. Louisville Cardinals (6-6) - 53.4
55. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.0
56. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 56.4
57. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 57.1
58. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 57.7
59. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6) - 59.4
60. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) - 60.0
61. South Florida Bulls (7-5) - 61.5
62. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 62.4
(tie) Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) - 62.4
64. Temple Owls (8-4) - 65.7
65. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 66.7
66. ECU Pirates (6-6) - 67.4
67. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 67.6
68. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 67.7
69. BYU Cougars (6-6) - 68.3
70. Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) - 69.0
71. Army Black Knights (6-6) - 69.9
72. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 70.4
73. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) - 70.5
74. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 73.3
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 75.1
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (9-4) - 75.1
(tie) UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 75.1
78. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 76.7
79. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 78.7
80. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 79.5
81. Troy Trojans (7-5) - 80.4
82. FIU Golden Panthers (6-6) - 80.9
83. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 84.0
84. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.4
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.0
86. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 87.9
87. UTEP Miners (6-6) - 88.1
88. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.4
89. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 88.6
90. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 90.2
91. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 90.7
92. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 92.1
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.5
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.5
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 95.0
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 96.6
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.7
(tie) Rice Owls (4-8) - 96.7
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) - 98.2
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 100.1
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.5
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.6
103. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 104.8
104. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 105.0
105. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 105.4
106. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 106.0
107. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.3
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 106.6
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.7
110. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 108.4
111. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.6
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.6
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.8
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.4
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.3
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.8
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.3

Week 14 - 2010

Go ahead and ask. How is it that we have TCU ranked ahead of Auburn? The short answer is that our ranking system takes into account the entire season and does not give greater weight to games played later in the year, which is what naturally happens in human polls and often in some computer-based ranking systems.

If you compare the entire seasons in this manner, especially if you remove artificial labels such as MWC, SEC or even team names, TCU really does show better when you look at game results. Auburn barely beat Mississippi State (#27 in our rankings), Clemson (#31) - an overtime game, and Kentucky (#59) in the first half of the season. None of these three teams are in the top 25 in our rankings. Granted, Auburn has been really good for the past 6 weeks, but that does not completely erase this early-season history in our analysis. TCU, meanwhile, had only one game closer than a touchdown (to San Diego State - ranked #36). TCU also blew out two teams in our top 25 (Utah at #21 and Air Force at #23). Auburn also has two "blow out" wins over top 25 teams (#12 Arkansas and #19 South Carolina) but it took playing South Carolina a second time to get that blowout victory.

This does not mean Auburn is not a great team, or that they wouldn't beat TCU if they played head-to-head. It just means that if you remove the biases associated with the names of teams played and the conferences teams played in and just compare the actual results, taking into account the year-long performance of these teams and the teams they played against, TCU has a slightly better resume of games overall.

Speaking of biases, since when would a previously undefeated team that has blown out nearly all of the opposition it has faced drop eight spots in the polls for losing an overtime game in the second-to-last game of the season to another top 10 team because of a two missed field goals - one at the end of regulation and one in overtime? If this were an SEC or Big 12 team, there is no reason that team would drop nearly completely out of the top 10. But because Boise State is in the WAC, voters treated them like they lost to a dog, nearly invalidating everything else they had accomplished that year. Nevada is no dog - itself having only lost one road game to a team that our analysis shows should be on the cusp of the Top 25 itself. Our analysis puts Nevada at #9 at the end of the regular season. And Boise State? They end the regular season at #4 - right about where we think the voters would have placed them if they had only been told the statistics of Boise State's season and opponents without the names and conference affiliations. Some teams get the benefit of the doubt because of decades of tradition. Others are penalized, not for anything about the actual season being evaluated, but for a lack of a lengthy tradition - even though those ghosts of the past used up their eligibility in the college game long ago.

Here are our regular season-ending rankings (technically with one more game to go - the traditional Army-Navy game scheduled for next week):

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) - 1.1
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) - 2.0
3. Auburn Tigers (13-0) - 3.5
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 3.6
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 5.0
6. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.9
7. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) - 7.0
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 8.7
9. Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1) - 9.5
10. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 10.9
11. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 11.0
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 12.1
13. Missouri Tigers (10-2) - 12.7
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) - 12.8
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) - 14.5
16. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3) - 16.5
17. LSU Tigers (10-2) - 17.0
18. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) - 17.7
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) - 17.8
20. Florida State Seminoles (9-4) - 20.0
21. Utah Utes (10-2) - 20.8
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 22.8
23. Air Force Falcons (8-4) - 23.7
24. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 24.7
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) - 25.5
26. Hawaii Warriors (10-3) - 26.8
27. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 26.9
28. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 27.3
29. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 29.2
30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 30.7
31. Clemson Tigers (6-6) - 32.3
32. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 32.7
33. UCF Knights (10-3) - 33.3
34. Florida Gators (6-5) - 33.8
35. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) - 35.9
36. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 36.3
37. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 37.2
38. USC Trojans (7-6) - 38.5
39. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 38.8
40. Georgia Bulldogs (6-5) - 39.8
41. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 40.9
42. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 41.0
43. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 41.7
44. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 42.3
45. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 44.5
46. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 46.7
47. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 47.8
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4) - 48.6
49. Baylor Bears (7-5) - 50.1
50. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 51.0
51. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 51.8
52. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 52.8
53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 53.0
54. Louisville Cardinals (6-6) - 53.4
55. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.1
56. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 56.5
57. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 57.1
58. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 58.0
59. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6) - 59.5
60. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) - 60.2
61. South Florida Bulls (7-5) - 61.6
62. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 62.4
63. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) - 62.6
64. Temple Owls (8-4) - 65.6
65. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 67.1
66. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 67.3
67. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 67.7
(tie) Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 67.7
69. ECU Pirates (6-6) - 67.8
70. BYU Cougars (6-6) - 68.4
71. Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) - 69.2
72. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) - 70.6
73. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 70.7
74. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 73.5
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 75.0
76. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 75.2
77. Miami University RedHawks (9-4) - 75.4
78. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 77.0
79. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 78.8
80. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 79.5
81. Troy Trojans (7-5) - 80.2
82. FIU Golden Panthers (6-6) - 80.8
83. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.1
84. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 84.6
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.0
86. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 87.9
(tie) UTEP Miners (6-6) - 87.9
88. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.5
89. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 88.6
90. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 90.4
91. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 90.5
92. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 92.1
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.8
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.5
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 94.9
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 96.3
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.8
(tie) Rice Owls (4-8) - 96.8
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) - 98.1
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 100.1
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.5
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.6
103. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 104.8
104. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 105.0
105. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 105.4
106. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 106.0
107. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.3
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 106.6
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.7
110. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 108.4
111. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.6
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.6
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.7
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.5
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.3
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.9
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.2