Ranking the Programs - Update

Back in September, we posted our rankings of historical Division 1-A football programs - see http://baggaleyfootball.blogspot.com/2010/09/ranking-programs.html. At the time, the rankings were based on 40 years of historical data - back through 1970. We've added 9 years of historical data (back through 1961) and updated the rankings following the 2010 season - meaning now the rankings are based on 50 years of historical data. Of course, the biggest changes came about as a result of the season just completed, since recent success is weighted greater than historical success. If we were to add the previous 50 years (back through 1911), all of those 50 additional years combined would only have a 16% impact on the resulting rankings. With that explanation, here are how the various Division 1-A programs rank following the 2010 season, taking into account the past 50 years of football history.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes - 0.891150832
2. Florida Gators - 0.877670863
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.853544602
4. Florida State Seminoles - 0.852293552
5. Oklahoma Sooners - 0.850895413
6. USC Trojans - 0.840680456
7. Alabama Crimson Tide - 0.836977074
8. Texas Longhorns - 0.814228245
9. Auburn Tigers - 0.804964719
10. Georgia Bulldogs - 0.804096482
11. Miami Hurricanes - 0.802098145
12. Penn State Nittany Lions - 0.799937765
13. LSU Tigers - 0.785530553
14. Virginia Tech Hokies - 0.783017531
15. Michigan Wolverines - 0.778081425
16. Tennessee Volunteers - 0.765869419
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 0.758595071
18. Boise State Broncos - 0.755133235
19. Arkansas Razorbacks - 0.728979101
20. Oregon Ducks - 0.719754676
21. West Virginia Mountaineers - 0.718526855
22. Clemson Tigers - 0.713444416
23. Texas A&M Aggies - 0.694523954
24. BYU Cougars - 0.691782726
25. Wisconsin Badgers - 0.668514428
26. Texas Tech Red Raiders - 0.666169326
27. Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.65407483
28. UCLA Bruins - 0.652794606
29. Arizona State Sun Devils - 0.649783496
30. Michigan State Spartans - 0.649247099
31. Boston College Eagles - 0.643846793
32. Utah Utes - 0.63572054
33. South Carolina Gamecocks - 0.632864257
34. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 0.629444141
35. Washington Huskies - 0.617760963
36. Arizona Wildcats - 0.612486024
37. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 0.607924401
38. Pittsburgh Panthers - 0.607111993
39. California Golden Bears - 0.606785273
40. Colorado Buffaloes - 0.595759671
41. South Florida Bulls - 0.592458002
42. Missouri Tigers - 0.591600485
43. Stanford Cardinal - 0.587262087
44. TCU Horned Frogs - 0.583634636
45. North Carolina Tar Heels - 0.582215918
46. NC State Wolfpack - 0.581228487
47. Air Force Falcons - 0.572420461
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles - 0.567464199
49. Maryland Terrapins - 0.557883519
50. Ole Miss Rebels - 0.556573655
51. Kansas State Wildcats - 0.555266129
52. Virginia Cavaliers - 0.549781226
53. Purdue Boilermakers - 0.542192429
54. Louisville Cardinals - 0.53369945
55. Fresno State Bulldogs - 0.531843416
56. Syracuse Orange - 0.528494823
57. Oregon State Beavers - 0.522156391
58. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 0.519760088
59. Kentucky Wildcats - 0.485927424
60. Cincinnati Bearcats - 0.481810836
61. Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.47817633
62. Hawaii Warriors - 0.475163753
63. Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.472611243
64. Connecticut Huskies - 0.468503706
65. Kansas Jayhawks - 0.465797279
66. Washington State Cougars - 0.462478027
67. Houston Cougars - 0.460865066
68. ECU Pirates - 0.459828997
69. Nevada Wolf Pack - 0.441819138
70. Tulsa Golden Hurricane - 0.436051956
71. UCF Knights - 0.433037311
72. Troy Trojans - 0.430914266
73. San Diego State Aztecs - 0.429962234
74. Toledo Rockets - 0.421991261
75. Miami University RedHawks - 0.418206099
76. Bowling Green Falcons - 0.417769083
77. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 0.415382917
78. Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 0.410930526
79. Marshall Thundering Herd - 0.409437841
80. Navy Midshipmen - 0.407287937
81. Colorado State Rams - 0.40511239
82. Baylor Bears - 0.401776931
83. Iowa State Cyclones - 0.390355926
84. Northwestern Wildcats - 0.380916867
85. Wyoming Cowboys - 0.369919336
86. Central Michigan Chippewas - 0.366696887
87. Northern Illinois Huskies - 0.362104358
88. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs - 0.360764786
89. Indiana Hoosiers - 0.352812358
90. Western Michigan Broncos - 0.351447592
91. Memphis Tigers - 0.33187297
92. New Mexico Lobos - 0.320421577
93. SMU Mustangs - 0.315621368
94. Vanderbilt Commodores - 0.305635634
95. Ball State Cardinals - 0.298320755
96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders - 0.29394931
97. UAB Blazers - 0.27704403
98. Duke Blue Devils - 0.270186913
99. San Jose State Spartans - 0.267503718
100. Temple Owls - 0.267478244
101. Rice Owls - 0.265714865
102. Ohio Bobcats - 0.262889007
103. Tulane Green Wave - 0.245270835
104. Florida Atlantic Owls - 0.243387674
105. UTEP Miners - 0.241899019
106. Army Black Knights - 0.228890312
107. UNLV Rebels - 0.224073881
108. Utah State Aggies - 0.222073424
109. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - 0.195403074
110. North Texas Mean Green - 0.19382428
111. Akron Zips - 0.187159857
112. Arkansas State Red Wolves - 0.179803859
113. Idaho Vandals - 0.170898626
114. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - 0.16477316
115. Kent State Golden Flashes - 0.159658143
116. FIU Golden Panthers - 0.134867486
117. Buffalo Bulls - 0.129307436
118. Eastern Michigan Eagles - 0.129144898
119. New Mexico State Aggies - 0.123416506
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 0.10802521

2010 Final Rankings

Congratulations to the Oregon Ducks! You are the Baggaley NCAA Football Ranking System National Champions for the 2010 Season. And before fans from Auburn cry foul, let us remind you that our rankings are based on an entire season performance, with all games weighted equally - meaning that Auburn's last second field goal victory over Oregon was not enough to overtake the difference in the overall season performance, especially some of Auburn's early-season games that were closer than they ought to have been against inferior competition. In fact, Auburn was not even able to overtake the TCU Horned Frogs who came in second. Here are the complete final rankings:

1. Oregon Ducks (12-1) - 1.2
2. TCU Horned Frogs (13-0) - 2.3
3. Auburn Tigers (14-0) - 3.0
4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) - 3.6
5. Stanford Cardinal (12-1) - 4.9
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) - 6.3
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) - 7.1
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 8.3
9. LSU Tigers (11-2) - 9.9
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) - 10.5
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (13-1) - 10.9
12. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) - 11.6
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-3) - 11.8
14. Missouri Tigers (10-3) - 14.7
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3) - 15.2
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-5) - 16.5
17. Florida State Seminoles (10-4) - 16.9
18. Texas A&M Aggies (9-4) - 18.5
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-4) - 18.7
20. Michigan State Spartans (11-2) - 19.1
21. Utah Utes (10-3) - 21.6
22. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 22.5
23. Air Force Falcons (9-4) - 23.8
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5) - 24.1
25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 25.3
26. NC State Wolfpack (9-4) - 26.1
27. San Diego State Aztecs (9-4) - 26.8
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-4) - 27.0
29. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-5) - 28.8
30. Florida Gators (7-5) - 30.5
31. Miami Hurricanes (7-6) - 32.6
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) - 32.7
33. UCF Knights (11-3) - 33.4
34. USC Trojans (8-5) - 34.5
35. Arizona Wildcats (7-6) - 36.0
36. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-3) - 36.3
37. Illinois Fighting Illini (7-6) - 36.7
38. Clemson Tigers (6-7) - 37.3
(tie) Hawaii Warriors (10-4) - 37.3
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (9-4) - 37.3
41. Navy Midshipmen (9-4) - 41.9
42. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6) - 42.4
43. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 43.0
44. Washington Huskies (7-6) - 44.0
45. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5) - 45.7
46. Kansas State Wildcats (7-6) - 46.8
47. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 49.1
48. Michigan Wolverines (7-6) - 49.8
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-6) - 50.0
50. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 50.5
51. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-5) - 50.7
52. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-6) - 51.2
53. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 53.8
54. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-5) - 54.1
55. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 55.3
56. South Florida Bulls (8-5) - 55.6
57. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.7
58. Baylor Bears (7-6) - 58.6
(tie) BYU Cougars (7-6) - 58.6
60. Connecticut Huskies (8-5) - 58.7
61. Syracuse Orange (8-5) - 61.4
62. Tennessee Volunteers (6-7) - 62.3
63. Kentucky Wildcats (6-7) - 62.7
64. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 65.3
65. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-5) - 65.8
66. Temple Owls (8-4) - 66.1
67. SMU Mustangs (7-7) - 69.0
68. Army Black Knights (7-6) - 69.4
69. Troy Trojans (8-5) - 70.2
70. Northwestern Wildcats (7-6) - 70.6
71. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) - 70.7
72. Toledo Rockets (8-5) - 71.2
73. ECU Pirates (6-7) - 72.2
(tie) Miami University RedHawks (10-4) - 72.2
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 73.6
76. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 74.0
77. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 74.1
78. FIU Golden Panthers (7-6) - 76.9
79. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 79.1
80. Ohio Bobcats (8-5) - 79.6
81. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 79.7
82. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 80.9
83. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 83.5
84. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.6
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.1
86. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 87.6
87. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.0
88. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 88.6
89. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 89.0
90. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 91.0
91. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 91.1
92. UTEP Miners (6-7) - 92.0
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.1
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.1
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 94.8
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 95.6
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.7
98. Rice Owls (4-8) - 97.3
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-7) - 98.0
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 99.7
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.2
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.2
103. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 104.9
104. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 105.0
105. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 105.3
106. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.0
107. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 106.2
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 107.4
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.9
110. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.1
111. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 109.3
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.4
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.8
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.4
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.4
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.9
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.1

Bowl Season

Our ranking system is not meant to be predictive. Instead, it is meant simply to rank teams by the success of their overall season. We'll be coming out with our post-bowl rankings soon, but first, we do annually take our rankings and use them in the ESPN and Yahoo bowl prediction contests, just to see how they measure up by using the rankings to a) predict the winner of each game - although we know there will be upsets, we "predict" that the favorite according to our ranking system will win each game, and b) assign "confidence points" to each game by using our ranking system to determine the likelihood of an upset and giving more points to the least likely upset - the likeliness of an upset determined by the difference in ranking of the two teams.

Using this simple system, once again, our rankings have proven to be reliable. Yes, 14 of the 35 games ended up as upsets according to our pre-bowl rankings. This is no surprise. Upsets happen every week in our ranking system. Plus, this system does not take into account team motivation - is the team disappointed by the bowl they ended up playing in? - or factors such as coaching changes. No, we did not win either of the contests we entered. There are many thousands of entries in each of these contests.

However, we did perform very well. How well? As expected, most of the upsets were between teams we had closely ranked, meaning we did not rate those games as being worth very many points, so most of the 21 games the system predicted correctly were high value games. Out of a possible 630 points, the ranking system scored 440 points, which is quite good. How good? It outperformed 96% of all entries in the Yahoo contest and 98% of all entries in the ESPN contest. The system especially performed well on games on or after New Years Day - or in other words the bowl games that appear most likely that both teams would be happy and motivated to be playing in. In fact, the system was only wrong on two games on or after New Years Day - both of which were rated very low in confidence points (1 point and 3 points respectively) and therefore are not considered surprising upsets in any sense. In fact, in one stretch, the system correctly picked 9 games in a row correctly, including all of the New Years Day bowl games.

What do we take from this? Not much. While the system seems to be based on a sound premise - the idea that teams with more successful regular seasons will typically perform better in the bowls as well - once again, this ranking system was not meant to be predictive. 14 of the 35 games still turned out to be upsets. But the system did seem to accurately reflect the likelihood of an upset in these bowl games based on the teams' performance during the regular season. Last year, one independent organization compared the BCS system computer rankings to bowl team performance and found that those computer rankings predicted only about half of the games correctly - roughly the same as you would expect if you picked the games by flipping a coin. Well, we outperformed that low standard. But that is no surprise. We feel like the premise of our ranking system is much more sound than any computer ranking system that is not allowed to take into account important aspects such as score differential in games. We do feel that these results tend to support the premise of our ranking system - just as they did last year.

But then again, we didn't think we really needed that justification in the first place. The results of our ranking system speak for themselves. Final rankings for the 2010 season coming soon. (Remember, Auburn was ranked behind TCU in the end of the regular season rankings.) Was the win over Oregon enough to push the Tigers past the Horned Frogs in the final rankings or will we award our national championship to a different team than this year's BCS/human polls? Stayed tuned and see...