Monday, December 16, 2013

Week 16 - 2013 College Football Rankings

One game was played this week - Army vs. Navy. One game typically won't make a big difference in the standings, but it actually does impact the rankings over more than just the two teams involved. Here are the final rankings heading into bowl season:

1. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Auburn Tigers (12-1) - 3.9
4. Baylor Bears (11-1) - 4.7
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) - 5.9
6. Missouri Tigers (11-2) - 6.0
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) - 6.2
8. Michigan State Spartans (12-1) - 8.1
9. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 9.4
10. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) - 9.8
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) - 11.2
12. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) - 12.5
13. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 13.3
14. Clemson Tigers (10-2) - 14.4
15. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 16.5
16. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 16.7
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 17.4
18. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) - 18.1
19. Washington Huskies (8-4) - 19.0
20. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 19.9
21. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4) - 21.7
22. Bowling Green Falcons (10-3) - 23.5
23. Louisville Cardinals (11-1) - 23.6
24. USC Trojans (9-4) - 25.1
25. UCF Knights (11-1) - 25.4
26. Ole Miss Rebels (7-5) - 25.6
27. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 26.0
28. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 27.5
29. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 27.6
30. Duke Blue Devils (10-3) - 31.1
31. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 32.4
32. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) - 33.6
33. Houston Cougars (8-4) - 34.2
34. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) - 35.1
35. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 35.7
36. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 36.2
37. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) - 37.5
38. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 37.9
39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 38.1
40. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) - 38.4
41. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 41.9
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) - 41.9
43. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) - 42.0
44. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 43.6
45. North Texas Mean Green (8-4) - 43.7
46. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 44.6
47. Utah State Aggies (8-5) - 47.5
48. Utah Utes (5-7) - 48.6
49. Rice Owls (10-3) - 48.9
50. Washington State Cougars (6-6) - 50.6
51. Boise State Broncos (8-4) - 51.0
52. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) - 51.4
53. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 52.0
54. Navy Midshipmen (8-4) - 53.9
55. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 54.0
56. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 54.1
57. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 58.3
58. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 58.4
59. Northwestern Wildcats (5-7) - 58.5
60. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 59.6
61. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 60.6
62. Syracuse Orange (6-6) - 62.1
63. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 62.6
64. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 63.2
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 65.9
66. UTSA Roadrunners (7-5) - 66.4
67. Oregon State Beavers (6-6) - 66.7
68. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 67.8
69. Florida Atlantic Owls (6-6) - 67.9
70. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 69.4
71. Tulane Green Wave (7-5) - 72.1
72. TCU Horned Frogs (4-8) - 72.4
73. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 73.5
74. Florida Gators (4-8) - 73.7
75. San Jose State Spartans (6-6) - 76.1
76. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 77.2
77. UNLV Rebels (7-5) - 78.0
78. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 79.1
79. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) - 79.4
80. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 79.7
81. Ohio Bobcats (7-5) - 79.8
82. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-8) - 80.1
83. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 81.6
84. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-9) - 82.7
85. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-8) - 85.2
86. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 86.7
87. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) - 87.8
88. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-6) - 88.5
89. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-8) - 88.8
90. Troy Trojans (6-6) - 89.1
91. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 91.8
92. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 92.8
93. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) - 92.9
94. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 93.2
95. Akron Zips (5-7) - 94.4
96. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-8) - 94.8
97. Texas State Bobcats (6-6) - 97.5
98. NC State Wolfpack (3-9) - 99.1
(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 99.1
100. Memphis Tigers (3-9) - 99.3
101. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 99.9
102. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 100.8
103. Kentucky Wildcats (2-10) - 100.9
104. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 103.7
105. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 105.1
106. Hawaii Warriors (1-11) - 106.6
107. Temple Owls (2-10) - 107.5
108. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 108.4
109. Army Black Knights (3-9) - 108.9
110. South Florida Bulls (2-10) - 110.0
111. Air Force Falcons (2-10) - 110.7
112. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-8) - 112.1
113. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 112.2
114. UAB Blazers (2-10) - 113.9
115. UTEP Miners (2-10) - 114.2
116. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 117.6
117. California Golden Bears (1-11) - 118.3
118. Western Michigan Broncos (1-11) - 118.6
119. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 118.8
120. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 120.3
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 121.6
122. Idaho Vandals (1-11) - 123.1
123. Miami University RedHawks (0-12) - 124.0
124. Georgia State Panthers (0-12) - 124.7
125. FIU Golden Panthers (1-11) - 125.3

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Week 15 - 2013 College Football Rankings

One game is left in the regular season: Army vs. Navy next week. But that game should only have a minimal impact on the rankings, so we can say that the following is pretty close to what the rankings will look like going into bowl season. Soon we'll be putting out our annual version of what the BCS game matchups should be as well as setting up our rankings-informed predictions for bowl season (where we typically outperform over 90% of all participants).

Things ended up pretty close as far as the actual championship game goes. It makes sense that with Auburn winning the head-to-head matchup that they should be in the game, not Alabama as our rankings show. However, imagine if the order of weeks had been a little different and that Auburn had beaten Alabama earlier in the year only to lose to LSU a week or two before the SEC Championship game. With that order of things, it is conceivable that Alabama would in fact be in the championship game. Because our system of analysis essentially treats all games equally, regardless of the order in which they were played, the results are not biased by "what has happened lately." Here are the rankings after 15 weeks of games:

1. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Auburn Tigers (12-1) - 3.9
4. Baylor Bears (11-1) - 4.7
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) - 5.9
6. Missouri Tigers (11-2) - 6.0
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) - 6.2
8. Michigan State Spartans (12-1) - 8.2
9. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 9.4
10. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) - 9.7
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) - 11.2
12. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) - 12.5
13. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 13.3
14. Clemson Tigers (10-2) - 14.4
15. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 16.5
16. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 16.7
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 17.4
18. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) - 18.1
19. Washington Huskies (8-4) - 19.0
20. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - 20.0
21. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4) - 21.7
22. Louisville Cardinals (11-1) - 23.5
23. Bowling Green Falcons (10-3) - 23.6
24. USC Trojans (9-4) - 25.1
25. UCF Knights (11-1) - 25.3
26. Ole Miss Rebels (7-5) - 25.6
27. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 26.1
28. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 27.4
29. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 27.6
30. Duke Blue Devils (10-3) - 31.6
31. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 32.3
32. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) - 33.5
33. Houston Cougars (8-4) - 34.0
34. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) - 35.1
35. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 35.7
36. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 36.2
37. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) - 37.4
38. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 38.0
39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 38.2
40. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) - 38.4
41. Texas Longhorns (8-4) - 41.9
(tie) Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) - 41.9
43. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) - 42.0
44. North Texas Mean Green (8-4) - 43.3
45. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 44.0
46. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 44.6
47. Utah State Aggies (8-5) - 47.4
48. Utah Utes (5-7) - 48.4
49. Rice Owls (10-3) - 48.7
50. Washington State Cougars (6-6) - 50.4
51. Boise State Broncos (8-4) - 50.9
52. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) - 51.4
53. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 51.5
54. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 53.6
55. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 53.9
56. Navy Midshipmen (7-4) - 55.9
57. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 58.3
58. Northwestern Wildcats (5-7) - 58.5
59. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 58.6
60. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 59.2
61. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 60.7
62. Syracuse Orange (6-6) - 61.9
63. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 62.6
64. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 63.2
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 65.9
66. UTSA Roadrunners (7-5) - 66.4
67. Oregon State Beavers (6-6) - 66.7
68. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 67.9
69. Florida Atlantic Owls (6-6) - 68.0
70. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 69.3
71. Tulane Green Wave (7-5) - 72.1
72. TCU Horned Frogs (4-8) - 72.4
73. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 73.4
74. Florida Gators (4-8) - 73.7
75. San Jose State Spartans (6-6) - 76.1
76. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 77.1
77. UNLV Rebels (7-5) - 77.9
78. South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) - 79.2
79. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 79.7
(tie) Ohio Bobcats (7-5) - 79.7
(tie) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) - 79.7
82. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-8) - 80.1
83. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 81.6
84. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-9) - 82.7
85. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-8) - 85.2
86. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 86.7
87. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) - 87.8
88. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-6) - 88.5
89. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-8) - 88.7
90. Troy Trojans (6-6) - 89.1
91. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 91.8
92. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 92.7
93. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) - 92.9
94. SMU Mustangs (5-7) - 93.2
95. Akron Zips (5-7) - 94.4
96. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-8) - 94.8
97. Texas State Bobcats (6-6) - 97.5
98. NC State Wolfpack (3-9) - 99.1
(tie) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 99.1
100. Memphis Tigers (3-9) - 99.3
101. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 100.0
102. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 100.7
103. Kentucky Wildcats (2-10) - 101.0
104. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 103.8
105. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 105.3
106. Hawaii Warriors (1-11) - 106.6
107. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 107.4
108. Temple Owls (2-10) - 107.7
109. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 108.8
110. South Florida Bulls (2-10) - 110.3
111. Air Force Falcons (2-10) - 110.8
112. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-8) - 112.0
113. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 112.4
114. UAB Blazers (2-10) - 114.0
115. UTEP Miners (2-10) - 114.3
116. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 117.5
117. California Golden Bears (1-11) - 118.3
118. Western Michigan Broncos (1-11) - 118.6
119. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 118.8
120. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 120.3
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 121.6
122. Idaho Vandals (1-11) - 123.1
123. Miami University RedHawks (0-12) - 124.1
124. Georgia State Panthers (0-12) - 124.7
125. FIU Golden Panthers (1-11) - 125.2

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Week 14 - 2013 College Football Rankings

By virtue of its last second once-in-a-generation play loss to Auburn, Alabama is officially out of consideration for the national title game and therefore the national championship. Sports pages everywhere are asking which should be the second team in, an undefeated Ohio State that barely survived against a Michigan team that we have ranked #42 or a one-loss SEC team like Missouri or Auburn. Well, if that is the question, our current vote has to go with one-loss Missouri over Ohio State but undefeated Ohio State over one-loss Auburn (but we reserve the right to change that opinion based on the results of next weekend's games). We currently have Missouri ranked #3, Ohio State #4 and Auburn, even with the wacky win over Alabama, still a distant #7 (which is actually quite a jump up with them, since we had them at #13 last week). Other one-loss teams include Baylor at #5, Oklahoma State tied with Auburn for #7 and Michigan State at #12. But note that NONE of those teams is ranked #2. Why not? Our rankings are based on the totality of the season, not just what happened last week or even in the last few weeks. Of all the one-loss teams, the one with the best loss (and the best set of wins) is still Alabama, and our analysis shows that one freaky play just is not enough to knock them out of the top two. Of course, we already had Florida State ranked at a solid #1, and it's nice to see the rest of the country come around on that one. Here are the complete rankings after 14 weeks:

1. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.2
3. Missouri Tigers (11-1) - 3.5
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) - 3.7
5. Baylor Bears (10-1) - 6.3
6. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) - 6.4
7. Auburn Tigers (11-1) - 8.0
(tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) - 8.0
9. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0) - 8.9
10. Stanford Cardinal (10-2) - 10.4
11. Oregon Ducks (10-2) - 10.5
12. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) - 11.9
13. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) - 12.7
14. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 14.5
15. Clemson Tigers (10-2) - 14.8
16. UCLA Bruins (9-3) - 16.5
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 16.8
18. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) - 18.4
19. Washington Huskies (8-4) - 18.9
20. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4) - 21.2
21. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) - 21.6
22. UCF Knights (10-1) - 22.7
23. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) - 24.7
24. USC Trojans (9-4) - 25.8
25. Ole Miss Rebels (7-5) - 26.2
26. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3) - 26.3
27. BYU Cougars (8-4) - 27.2
28. Duke Blue Devils (10-2) - 27.6
29. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 28.1
30. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 28.6
31. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) - 31.4
32. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) - 31.9
33. ECU Pirates (9-3) - 34.3
34. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) - 35.2
35. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) - 36.8
36. Houston Cougars (8-4) - 36.9
37. Bowling Green Falcons (9-3) - 37.0
38. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 37.3
39. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) - 37.8
40. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) - 38.5
41. Texas Longhorns (8-3) - 38.9
42. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) - 41.7
43. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) - 43.9
44. Utah State Aggies (8-4) - 44.0
45. North Texas Mean Green (8-4) - 44.5
46. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 44.9
47. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-1) - 47.5
48. Utah Utes (5-7) - 47.7
49. Boise State Broncos (8-4) - 50.2
(tie) Washington State Cougars (6-6) - 50.2
51. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) - 51.1
52. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 52.1
(tie) Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 52.1
54. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 52.2
55. Navy Midshipmen (7-4) - 56.0
56. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 56.7
57. Northwestern Wildcats (5-7) - 57.2
58. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 58.0
59. Buffalo Bulls (8-4) - 60.7
60. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 60.8
61. Syracuse Orange (6-6) - 61.0
62. Rice Owls (9-3) - 61.1
63. Toledo Rockets (7-5) - 63.3
64. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2) - 63.5
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 64.9
66. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) - 65.7
67. Oregon State Beavers (6-6) - 66.1
68. UTSA Roadrunners (7-5) - 66.7
69. Florida Atlantic Owls (6-6) - 68.5
70. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-3) - 69.9
71. Maryland Terrapins (7-5) - 70.2
72. TCU Horned Frogs (4-8) - 72.6
73. Florida Gators (4-8) - 73.2
74. Tulane Green Wave (7-5) - 73.6
75. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-8) - 74.2
76. San Jose State Spartans (6-6) - 77.1
77. UNLV Rebels (7-5) - 78.0
78. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 79.0
79. Ohio Bobcats (7-5) - 79.1
80. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) - 79.6
81. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 79.8
(tie) Illinois Fighting Illini (4-8) - 79.8
83. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-9) - 81.7
84. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-8) - 84.1
85. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9) - 86.3
86. South Alabama Jaguars (5-6) - 86.6
87. Troy Trojans (6-6) - 88.1
88. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-6) - 88.6
89. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-8) - 88.7
90. Virginia Cavaliers (2-10) - 90.4
91. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) - 91.9
92. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8) - 92.1
93. Memphis Tigers (3-8) - 92.9
94. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-6) - 94.1
95. SMU Mustangs (5-6) - 94.2
96. Akron Zips (5-7) - 94.9
97. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-8) - 95.9
98. Texas State Bobcats (6-6) - 98.0
99. NC State Wolfpack (3-9) - 99.1
100. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) - 99.4
101. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-9) - 100.1
102. Wyoming Cowboys (5-7) - 100.7
103. Kentucky Wildcats (2-10) - 101.2
104. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 103.8
105. Hawaii Warriors (1-11) - 106.0
106. South Florida Bulls (2-9) - 106.7
107. Temple Owls (2-10) - 107.3
108. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 107.4
109. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 109.2
110. Connecticut Huskies (2-9) - 110.1
111. Air Force Falcons (2-10) - 110.7
112. Purdue Boilermakers (1-11) - 112.2
113. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-8) - 112.3
114. UAB Blazers (2-10) - 113.9
115. UTEP Miners (2-10) - 114.2
116. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 117.5
117. California Golden Bears (1-11) - 118.3
118. Western Michigan Broncos (1-11) - 118.6
119. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-11) - 118.8
120. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 120.3
121. Massachusetts Minutemen (1-11) - 121.6
122. Idaho Vandals (1-11) - 123.1
123. Miami University RedHawks (0-12) - 124.0
124. Georgia State Panthers (0-12) - 124.7
125. FIU Golden Panthers (1-11) - 125.3