Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011 College Football Bowl Season - Intriguing Games Rankings

An intriguing game is one that is likely to be a close game between two good teams based on the past season success of both teams involved in that game. Given that definition, we have ranked each of the 35 bowl games this year in terms of its level of "intrigue" and present that list to you, beginning with the least intriguing bowl game of the holiday season and ending with the BCS Championship game, which - once again - is the most intriguing match of the holidays:

35. Military Bowl - #27 Toledo vs. #71 Air Force (12/28/2011)
34. Alamo Bowl - #67 Washington vs. #17 Baylor (12/29/2011)
33. Fight Hunger Bowl - #61 Illinois vs. #77 UCLA (12/31/2011)
32. Meineke Car Care Bowl - #20 Texas A&M vs. #63 Northwestern (12/31/2011)
31. Little Caesars Bowl - #59 Western Michigan vs. #76 Purdue (12/27/2011)
30. New Orleans Bowl - #54 San Diego State vs. #74 Louisiana-Lafayette (12/17/2011)
29. Hawaii Bowl - #60 Nevada vs. #18 Southern Miss (12/24/2011)
28. New Mexico Bowl - #45 Temple vs. #69 Wyoming (12/17/2011)
27. Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - #75 FIU vs. #79 Marshall (12/20/2011)
26. Music City Bowl - #44 Mississippi State vs. #68 Wake Forest (12/30/2011)
25. Idaho Potato Bowl - #56 Ohio vs. #72 Utah State (12/17/2011)
24. MAACO Bowl - #53 Arizona State vs. #5 Boise State (12/22/2011)
23. Sun Bowl - #36 Georgia Tech vs. #62 Utah (12/31/2011)
22. BBVA Compass Bowl - #64 SMU vs. #51 Pittsburgh (1/7/2012)
21. Poinsettia Bowl - #13 TCU vs. #50 Louisiana Tech (12/21/2011)
20. Chick-fil-A Bowl - #58 Virginia vs. #39 Auburn (12/31/2011)
19. Pinstripe Bowl - #57 Iowa State vs. #42 Rutgers (12/30/2011)
18. Insight Bowl - #41 Iowa vs. #10 Oklahoma (12/30/2011)
17. GoDaddy.Com Bowl - #35 Arkansas State vs. #47 Northern Illinois (1/8/2012)
16. Holiday Bowl - #43 California vs. #26 Texas (12/28/2011)
15. Belk Bowl - #49 Louisville vs. #46 NC State (12/27/2011)
14. Independence Bowl - #40 North Carolina vs. #29 Missouri (12/26/2011)
13. Gator Bowl - #32 Ohio State vs. #38 Florida (1/2/2012)
12. Armed Forces Bowl - #37 BYU vs. #30 Tulsa (12/30/2011)
11. Orange Bowl - #33 West Virginia vs. #25 Clemson (1/4/2012)
10. TicketCity Bowl - #12 Houston vs. #28 Penn State (1/2/2012)
9. Liberty Bowl - #31 Cincinnati vs. #34 Vanderbilt (12/31/2011)
8. Cotton Bowl - #23 Kansas State vs. #11 Arkansas (1/6/2012)
7. Sugar Bowl - #9 Michigan vs. #22 Virginia Tech (1/3/2012)
6. Champs Sports Bowl - #24 Florida State vs. #21 Notre Dame (12/29/2011)
5. Capital One Bowl - #19 Nebraska vs. #15 South Carolina (1/2/2012)
4. Outback Bowl - #16 Michigan State vs. #14 Georgia (1/2/2012)
3. Fiesta Bowl - #7 Stanford vs. #4 Oklahoma State (1/2/2012)
2. Rose Bowl - #6 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon (1/2/2012)
1. BCS Championship - #2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU (1/9/2012)

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Week 15 - 2011 College Football Rankings

The Army-Navy football game results had very little impact on the rankings. In fact, the results were exactly as you would expect based on their previous rankings, so even Army and Navy did not move up or down in the rankings. After running a number of simulations, we have estimated that Alabama needs to beat LSU in regulation by at least four points in the National Championship game for the Crimson Tide to take over the top ranking. No other team stands a chance of being declared champion after the bowls. However, this is a rough estimate. The results of every bowl game will have some impact on the rankings. Our estimate is simply based on the assumption that all other bowl games turn out as would be predicted by their current rankings. In other words, in the end, Alabama might need to win by more than four, or it might only need to win by four, depending on the results of other games. The requirement to win by four is merely an estimate.

1. LSU Tigers (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Oregon Ducks (11-2) - 3.6
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) - 4.1
5. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 4.4
6. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 6.5
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.7
8. USC Trojans (10-2) - 9.2
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 10.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) - 10.6
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 10.8
12. Houston Cougars (12-1) - 11.2
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) - 11.5
14. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) - 13.9
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 15.2
16. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 16.3
17. Baylor Bears (9-3) - 17.0
18. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2) - 18.8
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 19.7
20. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 19.9
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 21.4
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 21.5
23. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) - 22.8
24. Florida State Seminoles (8-4) - 23.7
25. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 24.1
26. Texas Longhorns (7-5) - 26.4
27. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 28.5
28. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) - 28.6
29. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 29.5
30. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4) - 29.9
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 31.5
32. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) - 31.8
33. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 32.7
34. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 34.7
35. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) - 34.9
36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 37.2
37. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 37.3
38. Florida Gators (6-6) - 38.3
39. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 40.1
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 41.1
41. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 41.9
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 42.5
43. California Golden Bears (7-5) - 44.5
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 45.1
45. Temple Owls (8-4) - 45.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 45.8
47. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 47.1
48. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 47.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 47.5
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.5
51. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 51.7
52. Miami Hurricanes (6-6) - 51.8
53. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 52.1
54. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 54.1
55. South Florida Bulls (5-7) - 54.7
56. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 55.1
57. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 58.0
58. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) - 58.1
59. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 58.8
60. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 59.4
61. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 59.7
62. Utah Utes (7-5) - 61.7
63. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 63.4
64. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 64.3
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 65.9
66. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 66.1
67. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 67.3
68. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 67.4
69. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 67.5
70. Navy Midshipmen (5-7) - 68.4
71. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 71.9
72. Utah State Aggies (7-5) - 73.3
73. UCF Knights (5-7) - 73.6
74. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 74.4
75. FIU Golden Panthers (8-4) - 75.0
76. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 75.6
77. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 75.7
78. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 77.9
79. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7) - 78.9
(tie) Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 78.9
81. Boston College Eagles (4-8) - 80.2
82. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 80.9
83. ECU Pirates (5-7) - 82.1
84. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.7
85. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 85.6
86. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) - 87.2
88. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 88.1
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 88.9
90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 91.2
91. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 93.2
92. Rice Owls (4-8) - 93.4
93. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 93.9
94. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 94.3
95. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-9) - 94.4
96. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 95.3
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 96.0
98. Army Black Knights (3-9) - 99.1
99. Washington State Cougars (4-8) - 100.4
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 100.7
101. New Mexico State Aggies (4-9) - 101.5
102. Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 102.0
103. Colorado Buffaloes (3-10) - 102.1
104. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 102.4
105. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.7
106. Buffalo Bulls (3-9) - 105.8
107. Idaho Vandals (2-10) - 107.3
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-10) - 107.3
109. Oregon State Beavers (3-9) - 108.3
110. Indiana Hoosiers (1-11) - 109.4
111. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 109.9
112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3
113. Troy Trojans (3-9) - 112.4
114. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-10) - 113.7
115. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 114.5
116. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 116.2
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-11) - 116.8
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 117.4
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (1-11) - 119.2
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.8

Monday, December 5, 2011

Week 14 - 2011 College Football Rankings

According to our analysis, the two teams who had the best season are squaring it off in this year's national championship game. LSU has solidified its hold on the #1 spot with a big victory over Georgia, and it remains unclear what an Alabama victory would mean, especially since LSU already beat Alabama this season. We suspect that it would take more than a close victory for Alabama to actually overtake LSU in our rankings. We will run some simulations as the bowls approach and will also provide some analysis of the bowl selections in the near future. For now, here are the rankings after 14 weeks, with one more regular season game to go (Army vs. Navy in week 15):

1. LSU Tigers (13-0) - 1.0
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 2.0
3. Oregon Ducks (11-2) - 3.6
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) - 4.1
5. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 4.4
6. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) - 6.5
7. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.7
8. USC Trojans (10-2) - 9.2
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) - 10.3
10. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) - 10.6
11. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 10.8
12. Houston Cougars (12-1) - 11.3
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) - 11.4
14. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) - 13.9
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) - 15.2
16. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 16.3
17. Baylor Bears (9-3) - 17.0
18. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2) - 18.7
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) - 19.8
20. Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) - 19.9
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) - 21.3
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 21.5
23. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) - 22.9
24. Florida State Seminoles (8-4) - 23.7
25. Clemson Tigers (10-3) - 24.1
26. Texas Longhorns (7-5) - 26.4
27. Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 28.4
28. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) - 28.6
29. Missouri Tigers (7-5) - 29.5
30. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4) - 29.9
31. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) - 31.5
32. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) - 31.9
33. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 32.7
34. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) - 34.6
35. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) - 34.9
36. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) - 37.2
37. BYU Cougars (9-3) - 37.3
38. Florida Gators (6-6) - 38.3
39. Auburn Tigers (7-5) - 40.1
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 41.1
41. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 41.9
42. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) - 42.5
43. California Golden Bears (7-5) - 44.5
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) - 45.0
45. Temple Owls (8-4) - 45.3
46. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) - 45.9
47. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 47.0
48. Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) - 47.3
49. Louisville Cardinals (7-5) - 47.5
50. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) - 49.6
51. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) - 51.7
52. Miami Hurricanes (6-6) - 51.8
53. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) - 52.0
54. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 53.8
55. South Florida Bulls (5-7) - 54.8
56. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 55.1
57. Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) - 58.0
58. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) - 58.1
59. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) - 58.7
60. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) - 59.4
61. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 59.7
62. Utah Utes (7-5) - 61.8
63. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 63.6
64. SMU Mustangs (7-5) - 64.5
65. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-7) - 66.0
66. Connecticut Huskies (5-7) - 66.2
67. Washington Huskies (7-5) - 67.3
68. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) - 67.6
(tie) Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) - 67.6
70. Navy Midshipmen (4-7) - 67.7
71. Air Force Falcons (7-5) - 72.1
72. Utah State Aggies (7-5) - 73.3
73. UCF Knights (5-7) - 73.6
74. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) - 74.5
75. FIU Golden Panthers (8-4) - 75.0
76. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) - 75.5
77. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 75.7
78. Syracuse Orange (5-7) - 77.8
79. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7) - 78.8
80. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) - 79.1
81. Boston College Eagles (4-8) - 80.2
82. Bowling Green Falcons (5-7) - 80.9
83. ECU Pirates (5-7) - 82.1
84. Ball State Cardinals (6-6) - 82.6
85. Hawaii Warriors (6-7) - 85.6
86. San Jose State Spartans (5-7) - 86.5
87. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) - 87.2
88. Arizona Wildcats (4-8) - 88.1
89. Miami University RedHawks (4-8) - 88.9
90. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 91.2
91. UTEP Miners (5-7) - 93.2
92. Rice Owls (4-8) - 93.4
93. Kansas Jayhawks (2-10) - 93.9
94. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 94.3
95. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-9) - 94.4
96. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 95.3
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) - 96.0
98. Army Black Knights (3-8) - 99.3
99. Washington State Cougars (4-8) - 100.4
100. North Texas Mean Green (5-7) - 100.6
101. New Mexico State Aggies (4-9) - 101.5
102. Colorado Buffaloes (3-10) - 102.0
(tie) Maryland Terrapins (2-10) - 102.0
104. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 102.4
105. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 102.7
106. Buffalo Bulls (3-9) - 105.8
107. Idaho Vandals (2-10) - 107.3
(tie) Ole Miss Rebels (2-10) - 107.3
109. Oregon State Beavers (3-9) - 108.3
110. Indiana Hoosiers (1-11) - 109.4
111. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 109.9
112. UAB Blazers (3-9) - 111.3
113. Troy Trojans (3-9) - 112.4
114. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-10) - 113.7
115. Memphis Tigers (2-10) - 114.5
116. UNLV Rebels (2-10) - 116.2
117. Tulane Green Wave (2-11) - 116.8
118. Akron Zips (1-11) - 117.4
119. Florida Atlantic Owls (1-11) - 119.2
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.8