For Comparison - 2004 Heading Into the Bowls..

The year from the BCS era that most resembles this year is 2004, a year in which even after the bowl games, there were three undefeated teams. We decided to run the numbers to see how 2004 measured up, and Utah Ute fans might find some consolation in the result after losing the only game that matters to them this past weekend. In 2004, the Urban Meyer-led Utes beat every team they played by at least 14 points. They weren't in a single close game. They didn't play anybody who was any good - even in their bowl game, but they beat everyone they did play handily enough to merit a #1 ranking in our analysis of the 2004 season heading into the bowls. According to our analysis, what we should have had for a national championship game was Utah against Auburn. What we got was USC against Oklahoma, mainly because those were the teams that were ranked #1 and #2 heading into the season. That's a lot like this year, come to think of it. Florida is ranked #1, mainly because that's where they started, not because they've been all that impressive (our analysis has them at #4 currently). TCU, like Utah and Auburn in 2004, seems to have a legitimate claim that they should be in the national championship game, regardless of the outcome of the conference championship games - of course we'll have to see how those games play out before making that final analysis.

Here's how the 2004 season rates (no bowl games included ... yet):

1. Utah Utes (11-0) - 1.0
2. Auburn Tigers (12-0) - 2.1
3. USC Trojans (12-0) - 3.5
4. Oklahoma Sooners (12-0) - 4.4
5. California Golden Bears (10-1) - 4.7
6. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) - 5.6
7. Texas Longhorns (10-1) - 7.3
8. Boise State Broncos (11-0) - 7.4
9. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2) - 9.5
10. Virginia Cavaliers (8-3) - 10.1
11. Miami Hurricanes (8-3) - 10.8
12. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) - 12.4
13. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) - 12.6
14. Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) - 14.6
15. LSU Tigers (9-2) - 15.1
16. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-3) - 17.6
17. Purdue Boilermakers (7-4) - 18.2
18. Tennessee Volunteers (9-3) - 19.8
(tie) Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) - 19.8
20. Michigan Wolverines (9-2) - 20.4
21. Florida Gators (7-4) - 21.1
22. Texas A&M Aggies (7-4) - 22.6
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4) - 23.2
24. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3) - 23.4
25. Bowling Green Falcons (8-3) - 24.1
26. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-4) - 25.9
27. Oregon State Beavers (6-5) - 27.1
28. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) - 27.2
29. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) - 27.7
30. UTEP Miners (8-3) - 31.3
31. Boston College Eagles (8-3) - 31.6
32. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) - 31.9
33. UCLA Bruins (6-5) - 33.2
34. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-5) - 34.5
35. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-5) - 36.0
(tie) Arkansas Razorbacks (5-6) - 36.0
37. Toledo Rockets (9-3) - 38.3
38. Memphis Tigers (8-3) - 39.3
39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) - 39.6
40. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-3) - 41.2
41. Syracuse Orange (6-5) - 42.9
42. Kansas Jayhawks (4-7) - 43.0
43. Maryland Terrapins (5-6) - 43.9
44. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-3) - 44.0
45. NC State Wolfpack (5-6) - 44.6
46. New Mexico Lobos (7-4) - 46.0
47. Stanford Cardinal (4-7) - 48.2
48. Miami University RedHawks (8-4) - 48.5
49. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-5) - 48.8
50. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-5) - 48.9
51. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-5) - 50.6
52. Clemson Tigers (6-5) - 50.7
53. Colorado Buffaloes (7-5) - 50.8
54. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-7) - 51.1
55. Iowa State Cyclones (6-5) - 54.9
56. Michigan State Spartans (5-7) - 57.5
57. BYU Cougars (5-6) - 57.6
58. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-7) - 58.5
59. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-5) - 59.9
60. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6) - 60.5
61. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6) - 60.6
62. Troy Trojans (7-4) - 62.2
63. Kansas State Wildcats (4-7) - 62.4
64. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-6) - 62.9
65. Navy Midshipmen (9-2) - 63.9
(tie) UAB Blazers (7-4) - 63.9
67. Washington State Cougars (5-6) - 66.3
68. Missouri Tigers (5-6) - 66.6
(tie) Oregon Ducks (5-6) - 66.6
70. Connecticut Huskies (7-4) - 69.0
71. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-5) - 69.8
72. Air Force Falcons (5-6) - 71.1
73. Ole Miss Rebels (4-7) - 74.0
74. Colorado State Rams (4-7) - 74.6
75. TCU Horned Frogs (5-6) - 75.1
76. Wyoming Cowboys (6-5) - 75.5
77. Arizona Wildcats (3-8) - 78.5
78. San Diego State Aztecs (4-7) - 78.7
79. Hawaii Warriors (7-5) - 79.8
80. Akron Zips (6-5) - 80.8
81. Indiana Hoosiers (3-8) - 81.5
82. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-6) - 81.8
83. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-7) - 84.2
84. Tulane Green Wave (5-6) - 85.2
85. South Florida Bulls (4-7) - 85.3
86. Baylor Bears (3-8) - 85.7
87. New Mexico State Aggies (5-6) - 86.5
88. North Texas Mean Green (7-4) - 86.6
89. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-8) - 89.1
90. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-8) - 89.2
91. Houston Cougars (3-8) - 90.3
92. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-8) - 92.0
93. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-6) - 92.1
94. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-9) - 92.7
95. Duke Blue Devils (2-9) - 96.4
96. Kentucky Wildcats (2-9) - 97.3
97. UNLV Rebels (2-9) - 97.9
98. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-7) - 98.5
99. Ohio Bobcats (4-7) - 98.9
100. Rice Owls (3-8) - 99.0
101. Army Black Knights (2-9) - 99.8
102. Temple Owls (2-9) - 101.0
103. SMU Mustangs (3-8) - 104.3
104. ECU Pirates (2-9) - 104.9
(tie) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (4-7) - 104.9
(tie) Utah State Aggies (3-8) - 104.9
107. Ball State Cardinals (2-9) - 107.5
(tie) Washington Huskies (1-10) - 107.5
109. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-6) - 107.9
110. Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-8) - 108.4
111. Central Michigan Chippewas (4-7) - 109.7
112. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-7) - 112.7
(tie) Idaho Vandals (3-9) - 112.7
114. San Jose State Spartans (2-9) - 114.3
115. Buffalo Bulls (2-9) - 114.5
116. Western Michigan Broncos (1-10) - 115.5
117. UCF Knights (0-11) - 117.7