Week 14 - 2010

Go ahead and ask. How is it that we have TCU ranked ahead of Auburn? The short answer is that our ranking system takes into account the entire season and does not give greater weight to games played later in the year, which is what naturally happens in human polls and often in some computer-based ranking systems.

If you compare the entire seasons in this manner, especially if you remove artificial labels such as MWC, SEC or even team names, TCU really does show better when you look at game results. Auburn barely beat Mississippi State (#27 in our rankings), Clemson (#31) - an overtime game, and Kentucky (#59) in the first half of the season. None of these three teams are in the top 25 in our rankings. Granted, Auburn has been really good for the past 6 weeks, but that does not completely erase this early-season history in our analysis. TCU, meanwhile, had only one game closer than a touchdown (to San Diego State - ranked #36). TCU also blew out two teams in our top 25 (Utah at #21 and Air Force at #23). Auburn also has two "blow out" wins over top 25 teams (#12 Arkansas and #19 South Carolina) but it took playing South Carolina a second time to get that blowout victory.

This does not mean Auburn is not a great team, or that they wouldn't beat TCU if they played head-to-head. It just means that if you remove the biases associated with the names of teams played and the conferences teams played in and just compare the actual results, taking into account the year-long performance of these teams and the teams they played against, TCU has a slightly better resume of games overall.

Speaking of biases, since when would a previously undefeated team that has blown out nearly all of the opposition it has faced drop eight spots in the polls for losing an overtime game in the second-to-last game of the season to another top 10 team because of a two missed field goals - one at the end of regulation and one in overtime? If this were an SEC or Big 12 team, there is no reason that team would drop nearly completely out of the top 10. But because Boise State is in the WAC, voters treated them like they lost to a dog, nearly invalidating everything else they had accomplished that year. Nevada is no dog - itself having only lost one road game to a team that our analysis shows should be on the cusp of the Top 25 itself. Our analysis puts Nevada at #9 at the end of the regular season. And Boise State? They end the regular season at #4 - right about where we think the voters would have placed them if they had only been told the statistics of Boise State's season and opponents without the names and conference affiliations. Some teams get the benefit of the doubt because of decades of tradition. Others are penalized, not for anything about the actual season being evaluated, but for a lack of a lengthy tradition - even though those ghosts of the past used up their eligibility in the college game long ago.

Here are our regular season-ending rankings (technically with one more game to go - the traditional Army-Navy game scheduled for next week):

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) - 1.1
2. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) - 2.0
3. Auburn Tigers (13-0) - 3.5
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 3.6
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - 5.0
6. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) - 6.9
7. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) - 7.0
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - 8.7
9. Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1) - 9.5
10. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) - 10.9
11. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) - 11.0
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) - 12.1
13. Missouri Tigers (10-2) - 12.7
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) - 12.8
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) - 14.5
16. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3) - 16.5
17. LSU Tigers (10-2) - 17.0
18. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) - 17.7
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) - 17.8
20. Florida State Seminoles (9-4) - 20.0
21. Utah Utes (10-2) - 20.8
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) - 22.8
23. Air Force Falcons (8-4) - 23.7
24. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 24.7
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) - 25.5
26. Hawaii Warriors (10-3) - 26.8
27. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 26.9
28. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 27.3
29. Miami Hurricanes (7-5) - 29.2
30. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) - 30.7
31. Clemson Tigers (6-6) - 32.3
32. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) - 32.7
33. UCF Knights (10-3) - 33.3
34. Florida Gators (6-5) - 33.8
35. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) - 35.9
36. San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) - 36.3
37. Navy Midshipmen (8-3) - 37.2
38. USC Trojans (7-6) - 38.5
39. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) - 38.8
40. Georgia Bulldogs (6-5) - 39.8
41. Maryland Terrapins (8-4) - 40.9
42. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) - 41.0
43. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) - 41.7
44. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) - 42.3
45. Michigan Wolverines (7-5) - 44.5
46. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) - 46.7
47. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) - 47.8
48. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4) - 48.6
49. Baylor Bears (7-5) - 50.1
50. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 51.0
51. Oregon State Beavers (5-7) - 51.8
52. Iowa State Cyclones (5-7) - 52.8
53. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) - 53.0
54. Louisville Cardinals (6-6) - 53.4
55. Texas Longhorns (5-7) - 56.1
56. Washington Huskies (6-6) - 56.5
57. Connecticut Huskies (8-4) - 57.1
58. Boston College Eagles (7-5) - 58.0
59. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6) - 59.5
60. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) - 60.2
61. South Florida Bulls (7-5) - 61.6
62. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 62.4
63. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) - 62.6
64. Temple Owls (8-4) - 65.6
65. Syracuse Orange (7-5) - 67.1
66. Army Black Knights (6-5) - 67.3
67. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 67.7
(tie) Toledo Rockets (8-4) - 67.7
69. ECU Pirates (6-6) - 67.8
70. BYU Cougars (6-6) - 68.4
71. Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) - 69.2
72. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) - 70.6
73. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) - 70.7
74. Houston Cougars (5-7) - 73.5
75. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 75.0
76. UCLA Bruins (4-8) - 75.2
77. Miami University RedHawks (9-4) - 75.4
78. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) - 77.0
79. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 78.8
80. Idaho Vandals (6-7) - 79.5
81. Troy Trojans (7-5) - 80.2
82. FIU Golden Panthers (6-6) - 80.8
83. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 84.1
84. Virginia Cavaliers (4-8) - 84.6
85. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8) - 85.0
86. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7) - 87.9
(tie) UTEP Miners (6-6) - 87.9
88. Duke Blue Devils (3-9) - 88.5
89. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-9) - 88.6
90. Kent State Golden Flashes (5-7) - 90.4
91. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 90.5
92. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-8) - 92.1
93. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-9) - 92.8
94. UAB Blazers (4-8) - 93.5
95. Ole Miss Rebels (4-8) - 94.9
96. Washington State Cougars (2-10) - 96.3
97. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-9) - 96.8
(tie) Rice Owls (4-8) - 96.8
99. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) - 98.1
100. Utah State Aggies (4-8) - 100.1
101. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7) - 100.5
102. North Texas Mean Green (3-9) - 104.6
103. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10) - 104.8
104. Colorado State Rams (3-9) - 105.0
105. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 105.4
106. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-8) - 106.0
107. Wyoming Cowboys (3-9) - 106.3
108. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9) - 106.6
109. Ball State Cardinals (4-8) - 107.7
110. Tulane Green Wave (4-8) - 108.4
111. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10) - 109.6
112. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (3-9) - 111.2
113. UNLV Rebels (2-11) - 112.6
114. Memphis Tigers (1-11) - 113.8
115. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-10) - 114.7
116. Akron Zips (1-11) - 116.5
117. Buffalo Bulls (2-10) - 116.7
118. San Jose State Spartans (1-12) - 118.3
119. New Mexico State Aggies (2-10) - 118.9
120. New Mexico Lobos (1-11) - 119.2