Four Superconferences in Football - Some Suggestions, Part 2

Last year, we suggested a total revamping of the conference structure to create four equally strong superconferences based on historical success of FBS teams. At the time, that proposal was based on our analysis of the previous forty years of college football games. We have now completed the entire 99 years of the modern football era, and with this additional information, we are ready to post an updated version of our four superconference proposal based on our program rankings using all 99 years of data.

We are not under the mistaken impression that this could ever be implemented. It's too radical a change to be accepted widely enough among the nation's college presidents to cause this to happen. But, in a "perfect world," we feel the alignment we are proposing is based on a good balance between considerations of geography, recent success and football tradition, and that this conference alignment would be the best compromise for creating a conference system that could easily and successfully lead into a four or eight team playoff for a national championship that was decided on the field.

Here is our proposed conference structure (the conference names are arbitrary and somewhat geography based, but we use them simply as a way of giving labels to differentiate between the conferences and their divisions):

Western Conference - North Division

Air Force Falcons
Boise State Broncos
California Golden Bears
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
San Diego State Aztecs
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies

Western Conference - South Division
 
Arizona Wildcats
Fresno State Bulldogs
Hawaii Warriors
LSU Tigers
Oregon Ducks
Stanford Cardinal
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans

Midwestern Conference - North Division
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
BYU Cougars
Colorado Buffaloes
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oregon State Beavers

Midwestern Conference - South Division
 
Arizona State Sun Devils
Auburn Tigers
Houston Cougars
Missouri Tigers
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies

Mideastern Conference - North Division
 
Illinois Fighting Illini
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan State Spartans
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers

Mideastern Conference - South Division
 
Alabama Crimson Tide
Louisville Cardinals
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
West Virginia Mountaineers

Eastern Conference - North Division
 
Boston College Eagles
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Bulldogs
Maryland Terrapins
Miami University RedHawks
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
Virginia Tech Hokies

Eastern Conference - South Division
 
Clemson Tigers
Florida Gators
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Florida Bulls
Virginia Cavaliers

This proposal, of course, is not perfect. It is merely a starting point, which values a balance between the divisions and conferences formed. In its current form, the "easiest" conference (but not by much) is the Eastern Conference. The easiest division is the North Division within that conference. The "hardest" conference is Mideastern Conference, although the hardest division is actually the North Division of the Western Conference.
 
Several teams do end up having to travel quite a bit under this proposal. LSU, particularly, seems to be assigned to a conference outside its own region, and there are a couple of alternatives that might be used to reduce the amount of travel the Tigers face each year. The first would be to swap LSU and Arizona State. This sacrifices some of the relative equality between conferences - instantly making the Midwestern Conference and South Division in that conference the toughest conference and division, while the Western Conference would become the easiest (as would the South Division in that conference). Other candidates for swapping with LSU that maintain the balance between conferences a little better but don't solve all of the resulting travelling concerns include Boise State or Texas A&M. Another option is swapping San Diego State and Hawaii within the Western Conference. This has the virtue of basically maintaining the balance between conferences, but it does not solve all of LSU's travel problems. It does mean the Tigers would not need to travel all the way to Hawaii every other year (but Michigan and Nebraska would) spreading out the travel challenges a little bit.
 
Under this proposal, several teams, including teams currently in BCS automatic qualifying conferences, are left out of the field of 64. These teams would, under our proposal, be allowed to play their way into the conference system as the conference structures would be adjusted each year based on the updated program rankings as calculated at the end of each year. Since the program rankings are based on historical performance, with greater weight given to recent success, there would not be major changes in the structure from year to year. Most teams move less than 5 spots in the program rankings each year. However, it would allow programs to build a tradition of success and supplant teams who over a series of years are consistently bad. We will discuss this in more detail in a later posting, when we discuss yet another proposal for how to realign conferences in a way that allows schools to play their way into the national spotlight.
 
The last five teams included in the field of 64 in this year's calculations are: the Illinois Fighting Illini, the Oregon State Beavers, the San Diego State Aztecs, the Miami University RedHawks and the Hawaii Warriors. Two of these teams, San Diego State and Hawaii, would have just barely played their way into the field of 64 after last year's successful seasons. All five would be under some pressure to have successful seasons to maintain their spots in the field of 64.
 
The first five teams not included in our field of 64 are: the Kansas State Wildcats, the Washington State Cougars, the Kansas Jayhawks, the ECU Pirates and the Navy Midshipmen. Among these teams, both Washington State and Kansas would have been in the field of 64 last year, but would have fallen out after not having successful enough seasons in 2010 to remain in the field. All five are in a position to possibly be added to the field in 2012 with successful 2011 campaigns.
 
Teams not currently in a conference with a BCS automatic qualifying bid that are included in our 2011 field of 64 include: Notre Dame (although they actually do have an automatic qualifying bid as an independent), Boise State, BYU, Southern Miss, Air Force, TCU (which will be joining the Big East next season), Fresno State, Houston, San Diego State, Miami University (Ohio) and Hawaii.
 
Teams currently in a BCS auto bid conference that are not included in our 2011 field of 64 include: Kansas State, Washington State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Baylor, Connecticut, Rutgers, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Iowa State, Duke, Indiana, and Vanderbilt.