The biggest question with regard to the 2017 season is how does UCF - the only undefeated team remaining at the end of the year - actually measure up against the other top teams in the country? Is their claim of a national title justified?
In short, no. But we do feel they should have been allowed into the college football playoff. In fact, we think that 2017 was the worst year for the selection committee so far, as we only agreed on two of the four teams in the playoff. Heading into the bowls, here was our Top 25: (Remember this was prior to any bowl games or any of the playoff games.)
1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) - 1.1
2. Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) - 2.8
3. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) - 3.0
4. UCF Knights (12-0) - 4.4
5. Auburn Tigers (10-3) - 4.6
6. Clemson Tigers (12-1) - 5.9
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) - 6.7
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - 8.2
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) - 8.4
10. Washington Huskies (10-2) - 10.0
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - 11.1
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - 12.5
13. TCU Horned Frogs (10-3) - 12.9
14. USC Trojans (11-2) - 14.8
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) - 15.2
16. Stanford Cardinal (9-4) - 16.7
17. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) - 17.6
18. Memphis Tigers (10-2) - 19.6
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) - 20.1
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - 21.4
21. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) - 21.5
22. South Florida Bulls (9-2) - 22.1
23. Michigan State Spartans (9-3) - 22.2
24. NC State Wolfpack (8-4) - 23.4
25. Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) - 24.9
Notice that when you analyze their resumes (again, we don't make a judgment about which is the better team, but which actually did more during the season), eventual champion, Alabama's claim to inclusion in the playoff was as weak as Clemson's in 2016. In our opinion, Auburn actually had a better claim, even with three losses, to inclusion than Alabama did, but we do feel that UCF should have barely squeaked in. Wisconsin, however, was the team that had the most reason to complain about being left out (even though they lost to Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Their claim is certainly better than Alabama, who didn't even play in a championship game at all (and therefore ended up with one less chance to lose, simply because they actually lost earlier). And, in fact, an analysis of their resume shows that they had had the second best season in the country, up to that point.
An interesting thing we are learning, though, is that inclusion in the College Football Playoff matters, because you are typically playing games against another top team, and your performance in the playoff (combined with the performance of other teams in the bowls) can have a huge impact on the final rankings. UCF's win over Auburn should actually not only not be too surprising - after all we had them ranked ahead of Auburn going into the bowls - but it turns out that, despite arguments that it justifies UCF's claim to their own national championship, UCF did not gain any ground in the rankings once the bowls and playoff are included in the analysis. Mostly this is due to Alabama leapfrogging them because of the additions to their resume made possible by playing (and beating) top notch competition in two games during the playoff.
So, seeing that Alabama entered the playoff ranked #7, was two wins in the playoff enough to actually catapult them to #1 in our full-season analysis? Almost. It was an overtime game after all. Alabama still managed to leap up to #2 in our final rankings, but winning an overtime head-to-head game against the team that had been ranked #1 already wasn't enough to put them ahead of Georgia in our final rankings.
Here are our final rankings for 2017 with Georgia still in the #1 spot, followed by Alabama. Wisconsin fell to #3 despite winning their bowl game, and UCF remains at #4.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (13-2) - 1.3
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) - 2.3
3. Wisconsin Badgers (13-1) - 3.0
4. UCF Knights (13-0) - 4.2
5. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) - 4.5
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) - 6.3
7. Auburn Tigers (10-4) - 7.1
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) - 7.3
9. Clemson Tigers (12-2) - 9.0
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-3) - 10.3
11. Washington Huskies (10-3) - 10.9
12. TCU Horned Frogs (11-3) - 12.0
13. Miami Hurricanes (10-3) - 13.0
14. LSU Tigers (9-4) - 15.5
15. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) - 17.3
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4) - 17.6
17. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) - 17.9
18. USC Trojans (11-3) - 18.1
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-3) - 18.2
20. NC State Wolfpack (9-4) - 19.7
21. Florida Atlantic Owls (11-3) - 22.0
22. Stanford Cardinal (9-5) - 22.5
23. Iowa State Cyclones (8-5) - 23.1
(tie) South Florida Bulls (10-2) - 23.1
25. Northwestern Wildcats (10-3) - 24.1
26. Memphis Tigers (10-3) - 24.8
(tie) Michigan Wolverines (8-5) - 24.8
28. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5) - 28.7
29. Boise State Broncos (11-3) - 28.8
30. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4) - 29.8
31. Louisville Cardinals (8-5) - 30.5
32. Boston College Eagles (7-6) - 33.5
33. Troy Trojans (11-2) - 34.2
34. San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) - 34.5
(tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) - 34.5
36. Texas Longhorns (7-6) - 35.1
37. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-4) - 37.8
38. Kansas State Wildcats (8-5) - 39.0
39. Florida State Seminoles (7-6) - 39.8
40. Purdue Boilermakers (7-6) - 40.4
41. Washington State Cougars (9-4) - 41.0
42. Army Black Knights (10-3) - 41.5
43. Duke Blue Devils (7-6) - 43.2
44. Navy Midshipmen (7-6) - 43.7
45. Utah Utes (7-6) - 44.3
46. Oregon Ducks (7-6) - 45.7
47. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-6) - 47.2
48. Toledo Rockets (11-3) - 47.7
49. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-6) - 48.7
50. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-6) - 49.2
51. Houston Cougars (7-5) - 51.8
52. Arizona Wildcats (7-6) - 53.6
53. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-4) - 54.1
54. Indiana Hoosiers (5-7) - 54.6
55. Texas A&M Aggies (7-6) - 55.0
56. Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) - 55.2
57. Ohio Bobcats (9-4) - 56.0
58. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-7) - 57.3
59. SMU Mustangs (7-6) - 60.0
60. Kentucky Wildcats (7-6) - 60.6
61. Missouri Tigers (7-6) - 60.8
62. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-6) - 62.1
63. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7) - 62.4
64. Syracuse Orange (4-8) - 65.6
65. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) - 66.3
66. Temple Owls (7-6) - 67.3
67. UCLA Bruins (6-7) - 67.5
68. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-7) - 67.8
69. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-5) - 68.1
70. California Golden Bears (5-7) - 70.3
(tie) North Texas Mean Green (9-5) - 70.3
72. Buffalo Bulls (6-6) - 70.4
73. Florida Gators (4-7) - 73.2
74. Virginia Cavaliers (6-7) - 73.4
75. Maryland Terrapins (4-8) - 76.5
76. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-8) - 78.1
77. Tulane Green Wave (5-7) - 78.3
78. Wyoming Cowboys (8-5) - 78.4
79. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) - 78.7
80. Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-7) - 79.0
81. Akron Zips (7-7) - 80.9
82. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7) - 81.0
83. Colorado State Rams (7-6) - 83.2
84. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) - 84.1
85. Utah State Aggies (6-7) - 84.5
86. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-8) - 85.4
87. Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5) - 86.7
(tie) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-5) - 86.7
89. UTSA Roadrunners (6-5) - 88.0
90. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7) - 88.6
91. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-6) - 89.5
92. FIU Golden Panthers (8-5) - 90.4
93. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8) - 93.5
94. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-9) - 94.0
95. Tennessee Volunteers (4-8) - 94.7
96. Air Force Falcons (5-7) - 94.8
97. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-10) - 97.2
98. UAB Blazers (8-5) - 98.1
99. Miami University RedHawks (5-7) - 98.6
100. New Mexico State Aggies (7-6) - 99.0
101. South Alabama Jaguars (4-8) - 102.5
102. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-8) - 103.6
103. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-8) - 104.4
104. Massachusetts Minutemen (4-8) - 104.5
105. New Mexico Lobos (3-9) - 105.7
106. Georgia State Panthers (7-5) - 107.3
107. Idaho Vandals (4-8) - 108.0
108. UNLV Rebels (5-7) - 108.6
109. BYU Cougars (4-9) - 109.1
110. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-7) - 110.4
111. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) - 111.4
112. Baylor Bears (1-11) - 111.5
113. Old Dominion Monarchs (5-7) - 111.8
114. Connecticut Huskies (3-9) - 112.4
115. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (5-7) - 112.5
116. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-10) - 113.9
117. Hawaii Warriors (3-9) - 117.7
118. Bowling Green Falcons (2-10) - 118.0
119. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3-9) - 119.8
120. ECU Pirates (3-9) - 120.3
121. Ball State Cardinals (2-10) - 120.6
122. Rice Owls (1-11) - 121.1
123. Texas State Bobcats (2-10) - 123.0
124. Kansas Jayhawks (1-11) - 124.2
125. Georgia Southern Eagles (2-10) - 125.1
126. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-10) - 126.0
127. Oregon State Beavers (1-11) - 126.7
128. San Jose State Spartans (2-11) - 127.2
129. Charlotte 49ers (1-11) - 127.4
130. UTEP Miners (0-12) - 130.7
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