Monday, August 20, 2018

Updated Program Rankings - NCAA College Football

We are proud to announce our updated program rankings for FBS College Football programs entering the 2018 season. These rankings are based on an analysis of a combination of recent and historic success. The level of success a program has had in any given recent year carries more weight in the rating system over a historical one, but it is most important for a program to have consistent winning over the entirety of the program's existence as an FBS program (or whatever the highest division of college football was in each year) in order to score well. To give you an idea of the relative weight of a given year in the overall scoring for a program, last year's results (2017) carried 4.95% of the total score for a program that began playing football over a century ago, while the 1968 season carried 0.72% of the total score. 106 years of data are included in this analysis, but only the years a program competed in the top division of college football are included for any given team and other years are not counted against them, so a team like Boise State, which only began competing at the top division of college football in 1996, is only evaluated on its relative success since then.

It has been three years since we posted program ratings, but you can compare how various programs did in this round of analysis with how they did three years ago by looking at our previous program rankings here: http://baggaleyfootball.blogspot.com/2015/09/were-back-program-ratings.html

Ohio State still has the top ranked overall football program in the country, but the difference between Ohio State and #2 Alabama has shrunk with Alabama's recent domination of the college football playoffs. Ohio State has held the top rating in our program rankings since the 2006 season. Prior to that, the highest ranking was held by Michigan, which is now #7 on the list. Other programs that have held the #1 ranking in the last 50 years include Nebraska (now #13), Notre Dame (now #6), Alabama, and Oklahoma (now #3). #4 USC has not held the #1 ranking since 1932, although the program had the second highest rating as recently as 2009. #5 Florida State has never held the top program rating, since they began competing as a top division football program in 1954. The highest the Seminoles have ever climbed is #3 in the rankings from 2003 to 2005.

Here's the entire list of current program rankings:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (0.874945156)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (0.870742028)
3. Oklahoma Sooners (0.849537669)
4. USC Trojans (0.831556081)
5. Florida State Seminoles (0.824773236)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0.802029203)
7. Michigan Wolverines (0.79907506)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (0.797245526)
9. LSU Tigers (0.792399358)
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (0.783277889)
11. Florida Gators (0.776474963)
12. Texas Longhorns (0.771252758)
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0.769325765)
14. Auburn Tigers (0.766001987)
15. Tennessee Volunteers (0.751118646)
16. Miami Hurricanes (0.746467526)
17. Boise State Broncos (0.738972527)
18. Clemson Tigers (0.727829099)
19. Texas A&M Aggies (0.693322033)
20. Michigan State Spartans (0.691326717)
21. Arkansas Razorbacks (0.687194456)
22. Washington Huskies (0.675791643)
23. UCLA Bruins (0.674771909)
24. Wisconsin Badgers (0.672806426)
25. Oregon Ducks (0.67101069)
26. Stanford Cardinal (0.665404283)
27. Virginia Tech Hokies (0.665361671)
28. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (0.650742512)
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (0.648857951)
30. Arizona State Sun Devils (0.644950826)
31. Ole Miss Rebels (0.625720396)
32. Iowa Hawkeyes (0.614300012)
33. Oklahoma State Cowboys (0.613422076)
34. BYU Cougars (0.60352873)
35. South Carolina Gamecocks (0.59718217)
36. Utah Utes (0.597146955)
37. Missouri Tigers (0.591573038)
38. Pittsburgh Panthers (0.590499439)
39. Texas Tech Red Raiders (0.590496076)
40. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0.584523979)
41. North Carolina Tar Heels (0.582362537)
42. Boston College Eagles (0.579406103)
43. TCU Horned Frogs (0.57777117)
44. Arizona Wildcats (0.567631548)
45. Louisville Cardinals (0.559714522)
46. NC State Wolfpack (0.559564112)
47. Colorado Buffaloes (0.548526594)
48. Houston Cougars (0.547417918)
49. California Golden Bears (0.54732862)
50. South Florida Bulls (0.54460472)
51. Syracuse Orange (0.533293444)
52. Kansas State Wildcats (0.528774815)
53. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0.523909437)
54. Appalachian State Mountaineers (0.517269204)
55. Purdue Boilermakers (0.516046057)
56. Baylor Bears (0.513221792)
57. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (0.510133515)
58. San Diego State Aztecs (0.509648822)
59. Maryland Terrapins (0.509442234)
60. Air Force Falcons (0.508851358)
61. Navy Midshipmen (0.493280773)
62. Toledo Rockets (0.492931203)
63. Kentucky Wildcats (0.488763575)
64. Fresno State Bulldogs (0.483292394)
65. Washington State Cougars (0.482647979)
66. UCF Knights (0.481867503)
67. Virginia Cavaliers (0.462860493)
68. Cincinnati Bearcats (0.447373749)
69. Northwestern Wildcats (0.444588728)
70. Oregon State Beavers (0.443670137)
71. Illinois Fighting Illini (0.442955843)
72. Memphis Tigers (0.442454641)
73. Bowling Green Falcons (0.440258059)
74. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (0.438791696)
75. ECU Pirates (0.437659651)
76. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (0.435763014)
77. Georgia Southern Eagles (0.428287904)
78. Duke Blue Devils (0.416965943)
79. Miami University RedHawks (0.40756377)
80. Troy Trojans (0.403552346)
81. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0.403350558)
82. Colorado State Rams (0.40227417)
83. Western Michigan Broncos (0.39901012)
84. Wyoming Cowboys (0.398064742)
85. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (0.395423635)
86. Vanderbilt Commodores (0.394594294)
87. Marshall Thundering Herd (0.392208124)
88. Iowa State Cyclones (0.392091044)
89. SMU Mustangs (0.387631046)
90. Hawaii Warriors (0.384232892)
91. Indiana Hoosiers (0.384176174)
92. Kansas Jayhawks (0.379256355)
93. Northern Illinois Huskies (0.379147093)
94. Nevada Wolf Pack (0.378763138)
95. Central Michigan Chippewas (0.374317361)
96. Temple Owls (0.363593881)
97. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0.354386927)
98. Utah State Aggies (0.351451768)
99. Connecticut Huskies (0.342377411)
100. Army Black Knights (0.33635048)
101. Ohio Bobcats (0.328791608)
102. Rice Owls (0.31831459)
103. UTSA Roadrunners (0.316098735)
104. Ball State Cardinals (0.315111821)
105. New Mexico Lobos (0.310978309)
106. Tulane Green Wave (0.310721709)
107. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0.30799522)
108. San Jose State Spartans (0.303582434)
109. Arkansas State Red Wolves (0.290981057)
110. Old Dominion Monarchs (0.2860568)
111. North Texas Mean Green (0.274389812)
112. Florida Atlantic Owls (0.269055563)
113. UAB Blazers (0.254169624)
114. South Alabama Jaguars (0.253838651)
115. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (0.250449607)
116. UTEP Miners (0.225645263)
117. UNLV Rebels (0.220119636)
118. Akron Zips (0.20933597)
119. Buffalo Bulls (0.202455904)
120. Kent State Golden Flashes (0.194002978)
121. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (0.186646203)
122. Idaho Vandals (0.180058388)
123. FIU Golden Panthers (0.16532097)
124. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0.158717549)
125. New Mexico State Aggies (0.150651828)
126. Texas State Bobcats (0.146978489)
127. Georgia State Panthers (0.127572252)
128. Massachusetts Minutemen (0.100252489)
129. Charlotte 49ers (0.093666563)
130. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (0.085271318)

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